Biography:Roy Amara

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Short description: American researcher, scientist
Roy Amara
Roy Amara, RIT NandE Vol12Num31 1980 Sep25 Complete.jpg
Amara circa 1980
Born
Roy Charles Amara
Died31 December 2007(2007-12-31) (aged 82)
NationalityAmerican
Known forAmara's law
Scientific career
FieldsFuturism

Roy Charles Amara (7 April 1925[1] – 31 December 2007[2]) was an American researcher, scientist, futurist[3] and president of the Institute for the Future best known for coining Amara's law on the effect of technology. He held a BS in Management, an MS in the Arts and Sciences, and a PhD in Systems Engineering,[4] and also worked at the Stanford Research Institute.

Amara's law

His adage about forecasting the effects of technology has become known as Amara's law and states:

We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.[5][6][7]

The law has been used in explaining nanotechnology.[8]

Selected bibliography

Books

Reports

  • Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1972). A framework for national science policy analysis (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. P-18. OCLC 4484161. "Reprinted from IEEE transactions on systems, man, and cybernetics, v. SMC-2, no. 1 January 1972" 
  • Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1972). Toward a framework for national goals and policy research (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 11724396. "Reprinted from IEEE Transactions on systems, man and cybernetics, v. SMC-2, no. 5 November 1972" 
  • Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1972). The social responsibilities of business (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 5744644. "Prepared for the White House Conference on the Industrial World Ahead, Washington, D.C., 2–9 February 1972" 
  • Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1973). Draft summaries of four workshops on the social impact of the computer (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 709544477. 
  • Amara, Roy; Lipinski, Andrew J.; Institute for the future (1974). Strategic planning: penetrating the corporate barriers (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 4349610. 
  • Amara, Roy; World Future Society (1975). The next 25 years: crises and challenges (Report). Menlo Park, California: World Future Society. P-31. OCLC 3693807. "Presented at the World Future Society Second General Assembly Plenary Session, June 2, 1975" 
  • Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1975). Some methods of futures research (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 2456542. 
  • Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1975). Emerging societal issues: some suggestions for research (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. WP-22. OCLC 17817243. 
  • Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1978). The U.S. in the decade ahead: an inventory of resources: American Vocational Association national convention, 4 December, 1978 (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. P-72. OCLC 7527420. 
  • Amara, Roy; Lipinski, Hubert; Spangler, Kathleen; Institute for the future (1978). Communication needs in computer modeling (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. P-67. OCLC 7511471. http://informs-sim.org/wsc78papers/prog78sim.html.  Published in Conference proceedings 1978 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC 1978). Pdf.[9]
  • Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1978). The future of voluntarism: meeting changing societal needs (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. P-69. OCLC 7293285. 
  • Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1978). Planning, futures and the skeptics (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 6661254. 
  • Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1978). Toward understanding the social impact of computers (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. R-29. OCLC 1166342. 
  • Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1980). The future of management: ten shapers of management in the '80s (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. P-80. OCLC 8390527. 
  • Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1980). Imperatives for tomorrow: the I's have it: images, institutions, involvement (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. P-87. OCLC 7917815. 
  • Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1980). The futures field (Report). Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. P-95. OCLC 7919207. 

References

  1. ↑ "Amara, Roy". Library of Congress. http://id.loc.gov/authorities/names/n77010151.html. Retrieved 18 February 2015. "data sheet (Amara, Roy Charles, b. 4/7/25)" 
  2. ↑ Pescovitz, David (3 January 2008). "Roy Amara, forecaster, RIP". BoingBoing. http://boingboing.net/2008/01/03/roy-amara-forecaster.html. Retrieved 18 February 2015. 
  3. ↑ Four Geeky Laws That Rule Our World
  4. ↑ "Roy Amara (biography)". University of Arizona: Anticipating the future (course), Futures Thinkers. http://ag.arizona.edu/futures/fut/amara.html. Retrieved 18 February 2015. 
  5. ↑ Susan Ratcliffe, ed (2016). "Roy Amara 1925–2007, American futurologist". Oxford Essential Quotations. 1 (4th ed.). Oxford University Press. doi:10.1093/acref/9780191826719.001.0001. http://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/acref/9780191826719.001.0001/q-oro-ed4-00018679. 
  6. ↑ "Encyclopedia: Definition of: Amara's law". PC Magazine. https://www.pcmag.com/encyclopedia/term/37701/amara-s-law. Retrieved 18 February 2015. 
  7. ↑ Doc Searls (2012). The Intention Economy: When Customers Take Charge. Harvard Business Press. p. 257. ISBN 978-1-4221-5852-4. https://archive.org/details/intentioneconomy0000sear/page/257. 
  8. ↑ Context
  9. ↑ Roy Amara at DBLP bibliography




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