View source for Aggregative Contingent Estimation Program

{{Short description|U.S. government research program}}
'''Aggregative Contingent Estimation''' ('''ACE''') was a program of the Office of Incisive Analysis (OIA) at the [[Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity]] (IARPA).<ref name=official>{{cite web|url=http://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/ace|title = Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE)|last1 = Matheny|first1 = Jason|last2 = Rieber|first2 = Steve|access-date = May 6, 2014|publisher = [[Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity]]}}</ref><ref name=whitehouse>{{cite web|url=https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/iarpa_big_data.pdf|title = Aggregative Contingent Estimation|publisher = Office of the Director of National Intelligence, {{wipe|United States}}|access-date = May 6, 2014}}</ref>  The program ran from June 2010 until June 2015.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/networks/iarpas-new-director-wants-you-to-surprise-him|title=IARPA's New Director Wants You to Surprise Him|last=Harbert|first=Tam|date=2015-10-19|website=IEEE Spectrum|access-date=2016-03-31}}</ref>

==History==

The broad program announcement for ACE was published on June 30, 2010.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&tab=core&id=54f9f4b696ffeedf52cffc433a2fc878|title = Aggregative Contingent Estimation System|date = June 30, 2010|access-date = May 6, 2014|publisher = Federal Business Opportunities}}</ref> ACE funded the Aggregative Contingent Estimation System (ACES) website and interface on July 15, 2011.<ref name=gcn>{{cite web|url=http://gcn.com/articles/2011/07/15/intell-crowdsourcing-forecasting-ace.aspx|title = Intell site tests crowdsourcing's ability to predict future|last = Hickey|first = Kathleen|date = July 15, 2011|access-date = May 6, 2014|publisher = GCN}}</ref> They funded [[The Good Judgment Project]] some time around July 2011.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://goodjudgmentproject.com/blog/?p=4 |title=The idea behind the Good Judgment Project |date=July 27, 2011 |access-date=May 5, 2014 |publisher=The Good Judgment Project |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140506202243/http://goodjudgmentproject.com/blog/?p=4 |archive-date=May 6, 2014 }}</ref> ACE has been covered in ''{{wipe|The Washington Post}}''''<ref name="washpo" /> and ''Wired Magazine''.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.wired.com/2010/04/can-algorithms-find-the-best-intelligence-analysts/|title = Can Algorithms Find the Best Intelligence Analysts?|last = Drummond|first = Katie|date = April 22, 2010|access-date = May 6, 2014|publisher = Wired Magazine}}</ref>  The program was concluded by late 2015.<ref>{{Cite web|url = http://www.c4isrnet.com/story/military-tech/it/2015/09/23/iarpa-anticipating-surprise/72632204/|title = IARPA's high-stakes intelligence experiment|last = Corrin|first = Amber|date = 2015-09-23|website = C4ISR & Networks|access-date = 2016-03-31|archive-date = 2017-06-21|archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20170621170049/http://www.c4isrnet.com/story/military-tech/it/2015/09/23/iarpa-anticipating-surprise/72632204/|url-status = dead}}</ref> The program manager was future IARPA director Jason Gaverick Matheny.<ref name="Prensky2012">{{cite book|author=Marc Prensky|title=Brain Gain: Technology and the Quest for Digital Wisdom|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=YM-00xBevvcC&pg=PA260|date=7 August 2012|publisher=St. Martin's Press|isbn=978-1-137-09317-2|page=260 |quote=The ACE program manager is Jason Matheny}}</ref>

==Goals and methods==

The official website says that the goals of ACE are "to dramatically enhance the accuracy, precision, and timeliness of intelligence forecasts for a broad range of event types, through the development of advanced techniques that elicit, weight, and combine the judgments of many intelligence analysts."<ref name=official/> The website claims that ACE seeks technical innovations in the following areas:<ref name=official/>

* efficient elicitation of probabilistic judgments, including conditional probabilities for contingent events
* mathematical aggregation of judgments by many individuals, based on factors that may include: past performance, expertise, cognitive style, metaknowledge, and other attributes predictive of accuracy
* effective representation of aggregated probabilistic forecasts and their distributions.

There is a fair amount of research funded by grants made by the IARPA ACE program.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&q=%22D11PC20058+OR+D11PC20059+OR+D11PC20060+OR+D11PC20061+OR+D11PC20062%22&btnG=&as_sdt=1%2C47&as_sdtp=|title = Google Scholar listing of research funded by IARPA ACE|access-date = May 6, 2014}}</ref>

==Partners==

The ACE has collaborated with partners who compete in its forecasting tournaments. Their most notable partner is [[The Good Judgment Project]] from [[Biography:Philip E. Tetlock|Philip E. Tetlock]] et al.<ref name=project>{{cite web|url=http://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/about_project.html |title=The Project |publisher=The Good Judgment Project |access-date=May 5, 2014 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140506201121/http://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/about_project.html |archive-date=May 6, 2014 }}</ref> (winner of a 2013 ACE tournament)<ref name=washpo>{{cite web|url = https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2013/11/26/good-judgment-in-forecasting-international-affairs-and-an-invitation-for-season-3/|title = Good judgment in forecasting international affairs (and an invitation for season 3)|last = Horowitz|first = Michael|date = November 26, 2013|access-date = May 5, 2014|work={{wipe|The Washington Post}}}}</ref> ACE also partnered with the ARA to create the Aggregative Contingent Estimation System (ACES).<ref name=gcn/>

Data from ACE is fed into another program, called Forecasting Science and Technology (ForeST), which partners with [[SciCast]] from [[Organization:George Mason University|George Mason University]].<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/forest|title = Forecasting Science & Technology (ForeST)|last = Matheny|first = Jason|access-date = May 6, 2014|publisher = [[Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity]]}}</ref>

==References==

{{reflist}}

==External links==

[[Category:Statistical forecasting]]

{{Sourceattribution|Aggregative Contingent Estimation Program}}