View source for Earth:100,000-year problem

{{short description|Discrepancy between past temperatures and the amount of incoming solar radiation}}
[[File:Delta-O-18 in deep sea sediment-svg.svg|thumb|300px|[[Biology:Δ18O|{{delta|18|O|}}]], a proxy for temperature, for the last 600,000 years (an average from several deep sea sediment carbonate samples)]]

The '''100,000-year problem''' ("100&nbsp;ky problem", "100&nbsp;ka problem") of the [[Earth:Milankovitch cycles|Milankovitch theory]] of orbital forcing refers to a discrepancy between the reconstructed [[Earth:Geologic temperature record|geologic temperature record]] and the reconstructed amount of incoming solar radiation, or insolation over the past 800,000 years.<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Raymo|first1=Maureen E.|last2=Nisancioglu|first2=Kerim H.|s2cid=17640098|year=2003|title=The 41 kyr world: Milankovitch's other unsolved mystery|journal=Paleoceanography|volume=18|issue=1|pages=n/a|bibcode=2003PalOc..18.1011R|doi=10.1029/2002PA000791|quote=All serious students of Earth's climate history have heard of the '100 kyr problem' of Milankovitch orbital theory, namely the lack of an obvious explanation of the dominant ~100 kyr periodicity in climate records of the last 800,000 years.}}</ref> Due to variations in the Earth's orbit, the amount of insolation varies with periods of around 21,000, 40,000, 100,000, and 400,000 years. Variations in the amount of incident solar energy drive changes in the [[Earth:Climate|climate]] of the Earth, and are recognised as a key factor in the timing of initiation and termination of glaciations.

While there is a Milankovitch cycle in the range of 100,000 years, related to Earth's [[Astronomy:Orbital eccentricity|orbital eccentricity]], its contribution to variation in insolation is much smaller than those of [[Physics:Precession|precession]] and [[Astronomy:Obliquity|obliquity]]. The 100,000-year-problem refers to the lack of an obvious explanation for the periodicity of [[Earth:Ice age|ice age]]s at roughly 100,000 years for the past million years, but not before, when the dominant periodicity corresponded to 41,000 years.
The unexplained transition between the two periodicity regimes is known as the [[Earth:Mid-Pleistocene Transition|Mid-Pleistocene Transition]], dated to some 800,000 years ago.

The related "400,000-year-problem" refers to the absence of a 400,000-year periodicity due to [[Astronomy:Orbital eccentricity|orbital eccentricity]] in the geological temperature record over the past 1.2&nbsp;million years.<ref>Richard John Huggett, [https://books.google.ch/books?id=_DF-AgAAQBAJ&pg=PT95  "Problems with orbital forcing"], ''The Natural History of Earth: Debating Long-Term Change in the Geosphere and Biosphere'', Routledge Studies in Physical Geography and Environment, 2006.
</ref>

The transition in periodicity from 41,000 years to 100,000 years can now be reproduced in numerical simulations that include a decreasing trend in [[Chemistry:Carbon dioxide|carbon dioxide]] and glacially induced removal of regolith, as explained in more detail in the article ''[[Earth:Mid-Pleistocene Transition|Mid-Pleistocene Transition]]''.<ref name="Willeit">{{cite journal|title=Mid-Pleistocene transition in glacial cycles explained by declining CO2 and regolith removal &#124; Science Advances|journal=Science Advances|date=April 2019|volume=5|issue=4|pages=eaav7337|doi=10.1126/sciadv.aav7337|last1=Brovkin|first1=V.|last2=Calov|first2=R.|last3=Ganopolski|first3=A.|last4=Willeit|first4=M.|pmid=30949580|pmc=6447376}}</ref> 

==Recognition of the 100,000-year cycle==
[[Image:Epica-vostok-grip-140kyr.png|thumb|300px|A &delta;<sup>18</suP>O record for the past 140,000&nbsp;years from Greenland (NGRIP) and Antarctica (EPICA, Vostok) ice cores]]

The [[Earth:Geologic temperature record|geologic temperature record]] can be reconstructed from sedimentary evidence. Perhaps the most useful indicator of past climate is the [[Physics:Isotope fractionation|fractionation]] of oxygen isotopes, denoted ''&delta;''<sup>18</sup>O. This fractionation is controlled mainly by the amount of water locked up in ice and the absolute temperature of the planet, and has allowed a timescale of [[Physics:Marine isotope stage|marine isotope stage]]s to be constructed.

By the late 1990s, {{delta|18|O}} records of air (in the Vostok ice core) and marine sediments was available and was compared with estimates of insolation, which should affect both temperature and ice volume. As described by Shackleton (2000), the deep-sea sediment record of {{delta|18|O}} "is dominated by a 100,000-year cyclicity that is universally interpreted as the main ice-age rhythm". Shackleton (2000) adjusted the time scale of the Vostok ice core {{delta|18|O}} record to fit the assumed orbital forcing and used spectral analysis to identify and subtract the component of the record that in this interpretation could be attributed to a linear (directly proportional) response to the orbital forcing. The residual signal (the remainder), when compared with the residual from a similarly retuned marine core isotope record, was used to estimate the proportion of the signal that was attributable to ice volume, with the rest (having attempted to allow for the [[Earth:Dole effect|Dole effect]]) being attributed to temperature changes in the deep water.

The 100,000-year component of ice volume variation was found to match sea level records based on coral age determinations, and to lag orbital eccentricity by several thousand years, as would be expected if orbital eccentricity were the pacing mechanism. Strong non-linear "jumps" in the record appear at [[Earth:Deglaciation|deglaciation]]s, although the 100,000-year periodicity was not the strongest periodicity in this "pure" ice volume record.

The separate deep sea temperature record was found to vary directly in phase with orbital eccentricity, as did Antarctic temperature and CO<sub>2</sub>; so eccentricity appears to exert a geologically immediate effect on air temperatures, deep sea temperatures, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Shackleton (2000) concluded: "The effect of orbital eccentricity probably enters the paleoclimatic record through an influence on the concentration of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub>".<ref name="Shackleton2000">{{cite journal|author=Shackleton, N.J.|s2cid=5787438|year=2000|title=The 100,000-Year Ice-Age Cycle Identified and Found to Lag Temperature, Carbon Dioxide, and Orbital Eccentricity|journal=Science|volume=289|issue=5486|pages=1897–1902|bibcode=2000Sci...289.1897S|doi=10.1126/science.289.5486.1897|pmid=10988063}}</ref>

Elkibbi and Rial (2001) identified the 100&nbsp;ka cycle as one of five main challenges met by the [[Earth:Milankovitch cycles|Milankovitch]] model of orbital forcing of the ice ages.<ref>{{cite journal |author=Elkibbi Maya, Rial Jose A |year=2001 |title=An outsider's review of the astronomical theory of the climate: is the eccentricity-driven insolation the main driver of the ice ages? |journal=Earth-Science Reviews |volume=56 |issue=1–4 |pages=161–177 |doi=10.1016/s0012-8252(01)00061-7|bibcode=2001ESRv...56..161E }}</ref>

==Hypotheses to explain the problem==
[[Image:Earth obliquity range.svg|alt=Diagram shows that obliquity varies from 22.1 to 24.5 degrees.|thumb|The effect of obliquity variations may, in concert with precession, be amplified by orbital inclination.]]

As the 100,000-year periodicity only dominates the climate of the past million years, there is insufficient information to separate the component frequencies of eccentricity using spectral analysis, making the reliable detection of significant longer-term trends more difficult, although the spectral analysis of much longer palaeoclimate records, such as the Lisiecki and Raymo stack of marine cores<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.lorraine-lisiecki.com/stack.html |title=LR04 Benthic Stack |last=Lisiecki |first=Lorraine |year=2005 |publisher=lorraine-lisiecki.com |accessdate=Oct 16, 2014}}</ref> and James Zachos' composite isotopic record, helps to put the last million years in longer term context. Hence there is still no clear proof of the mechanism responsible for the 100&nbsp;ka periodicity—but there are several credible hypotheses.

===Climatic resonance===
The mechanism may be internal to the Earth system. The Earth's climate system may have a natural [[Physics:Resonance|resonance frequency]] of 100&nbsp;ka; that is to say, feedback processes within the climate automatically produce a 100&nbsp;ka effect, much as a bell naturally rings at a certain pitch.<ref name="Ghil1994">{{cite journal|last=Ghil|first=Michael|year=1994|title=Cryothermodynamics: the chaotic dynamics of paleoclimate|url=http://portal.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=193534|journal=Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena|volume=77|issue=1–3|pages=130–159|bibcode=1994PhyD...77..130G|doi=10.1016/0167-2789(94)90131-7|via=}}</ref><ref name="Gildor2000">{{cite journal|last1=Gildor|first1=Hezi|last2=Tziperman|first2=Eli|year=2000|title=Sea ice as the glacial cycles' climate switch: Role of seasonal and orbital forcing|url=|journal=Paleoceanography|volume=15|issue=6|pages=605–615|bibcode=2000PalOc..15..605G|doi=10.1029/1999PA000461}}</ref> Opponents to this claim point out that the resonance would have to have developed 1 million years ago, as a 100&nbsp;ka periodicity was weak to non-existent for the preceding 2&nbsp;million years. This is feasible—[[Earth:Continental drift|continental drift]] and sea floor spreading rate change have been postulated as possible causes of such a change.<ref name=Ruddiman2006 /> Free oscillations of components of the Earth system have been considered as a cause,<ref name="Saltzman1984">{{cite journal|last1=Saltzman|first1=Barry|last2=Hansen|first2=Anthony R.|last3=Maasch|first3=Kirk A.|title=The late Quaternary glaciations as the response of a three-component feedback system to Earth-orbital forcing|url=|journal=Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences|date=December 1984|volume=41|issue=23|pages=3380–3389|bibcode=1984JAtS...41.3380S|doi=10.1175/1520-0469(1984)041<3380:TLQGAT>2.0.CO;2|doi-access=free}}</ref> but too few Earth systems have a thermal inertia on a thousand-year timescale for any long-term changes to accumulate. The most common hypothesis looks to the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, which might expand through a few shorter cycles until large enough to undergo a sudden collapse.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Denton |first1=G. H. |last2=Anderson |first2=R. F.|s2cid=27485445 |display-authors=0 |title=The Last Glacial Termination |journal=Science |year=2010 |volume=328 |issue=5986 |pages=1652–1656 |doi=10.1126/science.1184119|pmid=20576882 |bibcode=2010Sci...328.1652D }}</ref> The 100,000-year problem has been scrutinized by José A. Rial, Jeseung Oh and Elizabeth Reischmann<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Rial|first1=José A.|last2=Oh|first2=Jeseung|last3=Reischmann|first3=Elizabeth|s2cid=140578902|title=Synchronization of the climate system to eccentricity forcing and the 100,000-year problem|journal=Nature Geoscience|date=2013-03-10|volume=6|issue=4|pages=289–293|bibcode=2013NatGe...6..289R|doi=10.1038/NGEO1756}}</ref> who find that master-slave synchronization between the climate systems natural frequencies and the eccentricity forcing started the 100&nbsp;ky ice ages of the late Pleistocene and explain their large amplitude.

===Orbital inclination===
[[Image:Earth precession.svg|alt=Drawing shows the preseasonal change in orbital inclination as the earth turns counter-clock wise.|thumb|Precessional cycles may produce a 100,000 year effect.]]

[[Earth:Milankovitch cycles#Orbital inclination|Orbital inclination]] has a 100&nbsp;ka periodicity, while [[Earth:Milankovitch cycles#Orbital shape|eccentricity]]'s 95 and 125ka periods could inter-react to give a 108ka effect. While it is possible that the less significant, and originally overlooked, inclination variability has a deep effect on climate,<ref name="Muller1995">{{cite journal|last1=Muller|first1=Richard A.|last2=MacDonald|first2=Gordon J.|year=1995|title=Glacial cycles and orbital inclination|journal=Nature|publication-date=1995-09-14|volume=377|issue=6545|pages=107–108|bibcode=1995Natur.377..107M|doi=10.1038/377107b0}}</ref> the eccentricity only modifies insolation by a small amount: 1–2% of the shift caused by the 21,000-year precession and 41,000-year obliquity cycles.  Such a big impact from inclination would therefore be disproportionate in comparison to other cycles.<ref name="Ruddiman2006">{{cite journal|last=Ruddiman|first=William F.|title=Orbital changes and climate|url=http://www.geo.vu.nl/users/peef/teaching/orbital_forcing/assets/Ruddiman_2006_QSR.pdf|journal=Quaternary Science Reviews|date=December 2006|volume=25|issue=23–24|pages=3092–3112|bibcode=2006QSRv...25.3092R|doi=10.1016/j.quascirev.2006.09.001|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20081030023122/http://www.geo.vu.nl/users/peef/teaching/orbital_forcing/assets/Ruddiman_2006_QSR.pdf|archive-date=Oct 30, 2008|accessdate=2007-05-09|via=}}</ref> One possible mechanism suggested to account for this was the passage of Earth through regions of cosmic dust. Our eccentric orbit would take us through dusty clouds in space, which would act to occlude some of the incoming radiation, shadowing the Earth.<ref name=Muller1995 />

In such a scenario, the abundance of the isotope [[Physics:Helium-3|<sup>3</sup>He]], produced by [[Astronomy:Cosmic ray|solar ray]]s splitting gases in the upper atmosphere, would be expected to decrease—and initial investigations did indeed find such a drop in <sup>3</sup>He abundance.<ref name="Farley1995">{{cite journal|last=Farley|first=K.A.|title=Cenozoic variations in the flux of interplanetary dust recorded by <sup>3</sup>He in a deep-sea sediment|journal=Nature|date=1995-07-13|volume=376|issue=6536|pages=153–156|bibcode=1995Natur.376..153F|doi=10.1038/376153a0}}</ref><ref name="Kortenkamp1998">{{cite journal|last1=Kortenkamp|first1=Stephen J.|last2=Dermott|first2=Stanley F.|date=1998-05-08|title=A 100,000-Year Periodicity in the Accretion Rate of Interplanetary Dust|url=http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/280/5365/874|journal=Science|volume=280|issue=5365|pages=874–6|bibcode=1998Sci...280..874K|doi=10.1126/science.280.5365.874|pmid=9572725|accessdate=2007-05-09|via=}}</ref>
Others have argued possible effects from the dust entering the atmosphere itself, for example by increasing cloud cover (on July 9 and January 9, when the Earth passes through the invariable plane, mesospheric cloud increases).<ref name="pmid11607741">{{cite journal|last1=Muller|first1=Richard A.|last2=MacDonald|first2=Gordon J.|title=Spectrum of 100-kyr glacial cycle: orbital inclination, not eccentricity.|url=https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/eutils/elink.fcgi?dbfrom=pubmed&tool=sumsearch.org/cite&retmode=ref&cmd=prlinks&id=11607741|journal=Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A|date=1997-08-05|volume=94|issue=16|pages=8329–34|bibcode=1997PNAS...94.8329M|doi=10.1073/pnas.94.16.8329|pmc=33747|pmid=11607741|via=}}</ref> Therefore, the 100&nbsp;ka eccentricity cycle can act as a "pacemaker" to the system, amplifying the effect of precession and obliquity cycles at key moments, with its perturbation.<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Hays|first1=J.D.|last2=Imbrie|first2=John|last3=Shackleton|first3=N.J.|date=1976-12-10|title=Variations in the Earth's Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages|url=http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/194/4270/1121|journal=Science|volume=194|issue=4270|pages=1121–32|bibcode=1976Sci...194.1121H|doi=10.1126/science.194.4270.1121|pmid=17790893|access-date=2007-05-09|via=}}</ref>

===Precession cycles===
A similar suggestion holds the 21,636-year [[Earth:Milankovitch cycles#Apsidal precession|precession cycles]] solely responsible. Ice ages are characterized by the slow buildup of ice volume, followed by relatively swift melting phases. It is possible that ice built up over several precession cycles, only melting after four or five such cycles.<ref name="Imbrie1980">{{cite journal|last1=Imbrie|first1=John|last2=Imbrie|first2=John Z.|date=1980-02-29|title=Modeling the Climatic Response to Orbital Variations|url=http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/207/4434/943|journal=Science|volume=207|issue=4434|pages=943–53|bibcode=1980Sci...207..943I|doi=10.1126/science.207.4434.943|pmid=17830447|accessdate=2007-05-09|via=}}</ref>

===Solar luminosity fluctuation===
A mechanism that may account for periodic fluctuations in solar luminosity has also been proposed as an explanation.   Diffusion waves occurring within the sun can be modeled in such a way that they explain the observed climatic shifts on earth.<ref name="Ehrlich2007">{{cite journal|last=Ehrlich|first=Robert|title=Solar resonant diffusion waves as a driver of terrestrial climate change|url=http://mason.gmu.edu/%7Erehrlich/Diffusion_waves.pdf|journal=[[Earth:Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics|Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics]]|date=May 2007|volume=69|issue=7|pages=759–766|arxiv=astro-ph/0701117|bibcode=2007JASTP..69..759E|doi=10.1016/j.jastp.2007.01.005|via=}}</ref> However, the He<sup>3</sup> signal again appears to contradict this finding.<ref name="Marsh2007">{{cite arXiv|eprint=0706.3621|class=physics.gen-ph|first=Gerald E.|last=Marsh|title=Climate Change: The Sun's Role|year=2007}}</ref>

===Land vs. oceanic photosynthesis===
[[Image:Algal bloom 20040615.jpg|alt=The lighter coloring of irregular patches in the Atlantic Ocean off France shows where algae are blooming.|thumb|An [[Biology:Algal bloom|algal bloom]]. The relative importance of land- and sea-based photosynthesis may fluctuate on a 100,000-year timescale.]]

The [[Earth:Dole effect|Dole effect]] describes trends in {{delta|18|O}} arising from trends in the relative importance of land-dwelling and oceanic [[Earth:Photosynthesis|photosynthesizers]]. Such a variation is a plausible cause of the phenomenon.<ref name="Bender1994">{{cite journal|last1=Bender|first1=Michael|last2=Sowers|first2=Todd|last3=Labeyrie|first3=Laurent|title=The Dole effect and its variations during the last 130,000 years as measured in the Vostok ice core|url=http://www.whoi.edu/cms/files/bender94gbc_222964.pdf|journal=Global Biogeochemical Cycles|date=September 1994|volume=8|issue=3|pages=363–376|bibcode=1994GBioC...8..363B|doi=10.1029/94GB00724|accessdate=2007-05-09|via=}}</ref><ref name="Sowers1993">{{cite journal|last1=Sowers|first1=Todd|last2=Bender|first2=Michael|last3=Labeyrie|first3=Laurent|last4=Martinson|first4=Doug|last5=Jouzel|first5=Jean|last6=Raynaud|first6=Dominique|last7=Pichon|first7=Jean Jacques|last8=Korotkevich|first8=Yevgeniy Sergeevich|year=1993|title=A 135000-year Vostok-SPECMAP common temporal framework|url=|journal=Paleoceanography|volume=8|issue=6|pages=737–766|bibcode=1993PalOc...8..737S|doi=10.1029/93PA02328}}</ref>

===Ongoing research===
The recovery of higher-[[Physics:Optical resolution|resolution]] [[Earth:Ice core|ice core]]s spanning more of the past 1,000,000 years by the ongoing EPICA project may help shed more light on the matter. A new, high-precision dating method developed by the team<ref name="Kawamura2007">{{Cite journal|last1=Kawamura|first1=K.|last2=Parrenin|first2=F. D. R.|last3=Lisiecki|first3=L.|last4=Uemura|first4=R.|last5=Vimeux|first5=F. O.|last6=Severinghaus|first6=J. P.|last7=Hutterli|first7=M. A.|last8=Nakazawa|first8=T.|last9=Aoki|first9=S.|title=Northern Hemisphere forcing of climatic cycles in Antarctica over the past 360,000 years|url=|journal=Nature|date=2007-08-23|volume=448|issue=7156|pages=912–916|bibcode=2007Natur.448..912K|doi=10.1038/nature06015|pmid=17713531|last10=Jouzel|first10=J.|last11=Raymo|first11=M. E.|last12=Matsumoto|first12=K.|last13=Nakata|first13=H.|last14=Motoyama|first14=H.|last15=Fujita|first15=S.|last16=Goto-Azuma|first16=K.|last17=Fujii|first17=Y.|last18=Watanabe|first18=O.}}</ref> allows better [[Correlation|correlation]] of the various factors involved and puts the ice core chronologies on a stronger temporal footing, endorsing the traditional Milankovitch hypothesis, that climate variations are controlled by insolation in the northern hemisphere. The new chronology is inconsistent with the "inclination" theory of the 100,000-year cycle. The establishment of leads and lags against different orbital forcing components with this method—which uses the direct insolation control over nitrogen-oxygen ratios in ice core bubbles—is in principle a great improvement in the temporal resolution of these records and another significant validation of the Milankovitch hypothesis. An international climate modelling exercise (Abe-ouchi ''et al.'', Nature, 2013<ref name="AbeOuchi2013">{{Cite journal|last1=Abe-Ouchi|first=Ayako|displayauthors=et al.|year=2013|title=Insolation-driven 100,000-year glacial cycles and hysteresis of ice-sheet volume|url=|journal=Nature|volume=500|issue=7461|pages=190–193|bibcode=2013Natur.500..190A|doi=10.1038/nature12374|pmid=23925242}}</ref>) demonstrated that climate models can replicate the 100,000-year cyclicity given the orbital forcing and carbon dioxide levels of the late Pleistocene. The isostatic history of ice sheets was implicated in mediating the 100,000-year response to the orbital forcing. Larger ice sheets are lower in elevation because they depress the continental crust upon which they sit, and are therefore more vulnerable to melting.

==See also==
* [[Earth:Brunhes–Matuyama reversal|Brunhes–Matuyama reversal]]
* [[Earth:Middle Pleistocene|Middle Pleistocene]]
* Milankovitch cycles
* [[Earth:Paleoclimatology|Paleoclimatology]]
* [[Earth:Timeline of glaciation|Timeline of glaciation]]
{{Clear}}

==References==
{{Reflist|30em}}

{{DEFAULTSORT:100, 000-Year Problem}}
[[Category:Climatology]]
[[Category:Climate history]]

{{Sourceattribution|100,000-year problem|1}}