View source for Earth:Energiewende in Germany

[[File:Schneebergerhof 01.jpg|thumb|Photovoltaic array and wind turbines at the Schneebergerhof wind farm in the German state of Rheinland-Pfalz]]
[[File:Power-generation-germany 2016.png|thumbnail|right|Market share of Germany's power generation 2016<ref>[http://strom-report.de/renewable-energy/#germany-power-generation-mix-2016 Germany's Electricity Mix 2016]</ref>]]
The '''''Energiewende''''' ([[Social:German language|German]] for '''energy transition''') is the planned transition by {{wipe|Germany}} to a low carbon, environmentally sound, reliable, and affordable energy supply.<ref name="bmwi-and-bmu-2010">{{cite book |author1 = Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology (BMWi) |author2 = Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) |title = Energy concept for an environmentally sound, reliable and affordable energy supply |date = 28 September 2010 |publisher = Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology (BMWi) |place = Berlin, Germany |url = http://www.bmwi.de/English/Redaktion/Pdf/energy-concept,property=pdf,bereich=bmwi,sprache=en,rwb=true.pdf |access-date = 2016-05-01 |deadurl= yes |archiveurl = https://web.archive.org/web/20161006040920/http://www.bmwi.de/English/Redaktion/Pdf/energy-concept%2Cproperty%3Dpdf%2Cbereich%3Dbmwi%2Csprache%3Den%2Crwb%3Dtrue.pdf |archivedate = 6 October 2016 |df=dmy-all}}</ref> 
The term ''Energiewende'' is regularly used in [[Social:English language|English language]] publications without being translated (a [[Social:Loanword|loanword]]).<ref name="jungjohann-and-morris-2014">{{cite book | last1 = Jungjohann | first1 = Arne | last2 = Morris | first2 = Craig | title = The German coal conundrum | date = June 2014 | publisher = Heinrich Böll Stiftung | location = Washington, DC, USA | url = http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/German_Coal_Conundrum.pdf | access-date = 2016-10-07 | quote = The term ''Energiewende'' – the country's transition away from nuclear power to renewables with lower energy consumption – is now commonly used in English.}}</ref>{{rp|4}}
The new system will rely heavily on [[Engineering:Renewable energy|renewable energy]] (particularly wind, [[Chemistry:Photovoltaics|photovoltaics]], and hydroelectricity), [[Physics:Efficient energy use|energy efficiency]], and [[Finance:Energy demand management|energy demand management]]. 
Most if not all existing coal-fired generation will need to be retired.<ref name="acatech-etal-2016-a">{{cite book | editor1 = acatech | editor2 = Lepoldina | editor3 = Akademienunion | year = 2016 | title = Flexibility concepts for the German power supply in 2050: ensuring stability in the age of renewable energies | publisher = acatech — National Academy of Science and Engineering | place = Berlin, Germany | url = http://www.acatech.de/fileadmin/user_upload/Baumstruktur_nach_Website/Acatech/root/de/Publikationen/Kooperationspublikationen/Stellungnahme_Flexibility_concepts.pdf | access-date = 2016-04-28 | isbn = 978-3-8047-3549-1}}</ref> 
The [[Engineering:Nuclear power phase-out#Germany|phase-out]] of Germany's fleet of [[Physics:Nuclear reactor|nuclear reactor]]s, to be complete by 2022, is a key part of the program.<ref name="bruninx-etal-2013">{{cite journal | first1 = Kenneth | last1 = Bruninx | first2 = Darin | last2 = Madzharov | first3 = Erik | last3 = Delarue | first4 = William | last4 = D'haeseleer | title = Impact of the German nuclear phase-out on Europe's electricity generation — a comprehensive study | journal = Energy Policy | volume = 60 | pages = 251–261 | year = 2013 | doi = 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.05.026 | url = https://www.mech.kuleuven.be/en/tme/research/energy_environment/Pdf/wpen2012-15 | access-date = 2016-05-12}}</ref>

Legislative support for the ''Energiewende'' was passed in late 2010 and includes [[Chemistry:Greenhouse gas|greenhouse gas]] (GHG) reductions of 80–95% by 2050 (relative to 1990) and a [[Engineering:Renewable energy|renewable energy]] target of 60% by 2050.<ref name="bmwi-2015-b">{{cite book | title = The Energy of the Future: Fourth "Energy Transition" Monitoring Report — Summary | date = November 2015 | publisher = Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi) | place = Berlin, Germany
 | url = https://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/EN/Publikationen/vierter-monitoring-bericht-energie-der-zukunft-kurzfassung.pdf | access-date = 2017-11-18}}</ref> 
These targets are ambitious.<ref name="buchan-2012">{{cite book | first = David | last = Buchan | title = The Energiewende — Germany's gamble | date = June 2012 | publisher = Oxford Institute for Energy Studies| place = Oxford, UK | isbn = 978-1-907555-52-7 | url = https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/SP-261.pdf | access-date = 2016-05-12}}</ref>
The Berlin-based policy institute Agora Energiewende noted that "while the German approach is not unique worldwide, the speed and scope of the ''Energiewende'' are exceptional".<ref name="agora-2015-a">{{cite book | author = Agora Energiewende | title = Understanding the Energiewende: FAQ on the ongoing transition of the German power system | year = 2015 | publisher = Agora Energiewende | place = Berlin, Germany | url = http://www.agora-energiewende.de/fileadmin/Projekte/2015/Understanding_the_EW/Agora_Understanding_the_Energiewende.pdf | access-date = 2016-04-29}}</ref>
The ''Energiewende'' also seeks a greater transparency in relation to national [[Earth:Energy policy|energy policy]] formation.<ref name="acatech-etal-2016-b">
{{cite book | editor1 = acatech | editor2 = Lepoldina | editor3 = Akademienunion | year = 2016 | title = Consulting with energy scenarios : requirements for scientific policy advice | publisher = acatech — National Academy of Science and Engineering | place = Berlin, Germany | isbn = 978-3-8047-3550-7 | url = http://www.akademienunion.de/fileadmin/redaktion/user_upload/Publikationen/Stellungnahmen/Stellungnahme_Energy_scenarios.pdf | access-date = 2016-11-09}}</ref>

Germany has made significant progress on its GHG emissions reduction target, achieving a 27% decrease between 1990 and 2014. 
However the country will need to maintain an average GHG emissions abatement rate of 3.5% per year to reach its ''Energiewende'' goal, equal to the maximum historical value thus far.<ref name="hillebrandt-etal-2015">
{{cite book | editor-last = Hillebrandt | editor-first = Katharina | display-editors = etal | year = 2015 | title = Pathways to deep decarbonization in Germany | publisher = Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) and Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI) | url = http://deepdecarbonization.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/DDPP_DEU.pdf | access-date = 2016-04-28}}</ref>

As of 2013, Germany spends €1.5{{nbsp}}billion per year on energy research in an effort to solve the technical and social issues raised by the transition.<ref name="schiermeier-2013">{{cite news | first = Quirin | last = Schiermeier | title = Renewable power: Germany's energy gamble: an ambitious plan to slash greenhouse-gas emissions must clear some high technical and economic hurdles | date = 10 April 2013 | work = Nature
 | url = http://www.nature.com/news/renewable-power-germany-s-energy-gamble-1.12755 | access-date = 2016-05-01 | doi = 10.1038/496156a}}</ref>
This includes a number of computer studies that have confirmed the feasibility and a similar cost (relative to [[Finance:Business as usual (business)|business-as-usual]] and given that carbon is adequately priced) of the ''Energiewende''.

== The term ''Energiewende'' ==

[[File:Biogas Photovoltaik Wind.jpg|thumb|The main renewable energy sources in Germany: [[Biology:Biomass|biomass]], wind energy, and photovoltaics]]

The term ''Energiewende'' was first contained in the title of a 1980 publication by the German [[Organization:Öko-Institut|Öko-Institut]], calling for the complete abandonment of nuclear and petroleum energy.<ref name="krause-etal-1980">
{{cite book
 | first1 = Florentin | last1 = Krause
 | first2 = Hartmut | last2 = Bossel
 | first3 =  Karl-Friedrich | last3 = Müller-Reißmann
 | title = Energie-Wende: Wachstum und Wohlstand ohne Erdöl und Uran
 | trans-title = Energy transition: growth and prosperity without petroleum and uranium
 | language = German
 | year = 1980
 | publisher = S Fischer Verlag
 | location = Germany
 | isbn = 3-10-007705-9
 | url = http://www2.hu-berlin.de/sachbuchforschung/CONTENT/SBDB/pix/PDF/Krause-Energie-Inhalt.pdf
 | access-date = 2016-06-14
}}</ref><ref name="jacobs-2012">
{{cite journal
 | first = David | last = Jacobs
 | title = The German ''Energiewende'': history, targets, policies and challenges
 | year = 2012
 | journal = Renewable Energy Law and Policy Review
 | volume = 3
 | number = 4
 | pages = 223–233
}} In support of the claim that Krause et al (1980) was the first use of the term ''Energiewende''.</ref>{{rp|223}}
The most groundbreaking claim was that economic growth was possible without increased energy consumption.<ref>https://book.energytransition.org/origin-term-energiewende</ref>  On 16{{nbsp}}February 1980, the German Federal Ministry of the Environment also hosted a symposium in Berlin, called ''Energiewende – Atomausstieg und Klimaschutz'' (Energy Transition: Nuclear Phase-Out and Climate Protection).  The Institute for Applied Ecology was funded by both environmental and religious organizations, and the importance of religious and conservative figures like Wolf von Fabeck and Peter Ahmels was crucial.  In the following decades, the term ''Energiewende'' expanded in scope – in its present form it dates back to at least 2002.

''Energiewende'' designates a significant change in [[Earth:Energy policy|energy policy]].  The term encompasses a reorientation of policy from demand to supply and a shift from centralized to distributed generation (for example, producing heat and power in small cogeneration units), which should replace overproduction and avoidable energy consumption with energy-saving measures and increased efficiency.

In a broader sense, this transition also entails a [[Social:Democratization|democratization]] of energy.<ref name="paulitz">
{{cite web
 | first = Henrik | last = Paulitz
 | title = Dezentrale Energiegewinnung — Eine Revolutionierung der gesellschaftlichen Verhältnisse
 | website = International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War (IPPNW)
 | trans-title = Decentralized energy production — a revolution in social relations
 | language = German
 | url = http://www.ippnw.de/atomenergie/energiewende/artikel/de/dezentrale-energiegewinnung-eine-r.html
 | access-date = 2016-06-14
}}</ref>
In the traditional energy industry, a few large companies with large centralized power stations dominate the market as an oligopoly and consequently amass a worrisome level of both economic and political power. Renewable energies, in contrast, can, as a rule, be established in a decentralized manner.  Public wind farms and solar parks can involve many citizens directly in energy production.<ref name="dnr-2011">
{{cite web
 | title = Mit Bürgerengagement zur Energiewende
 | trans-title = With citizen involvement for the Energiewende
 | language = German
 | year = 2011
 | website = Deutscher Naturschutzring
 | url = http://www.dnr.de/publikationen/umwelt-aktuell---archiv-2011/102011/mit-buergerengagement-zur-energiewende.html
 | access-date = 2016-06-14
}}</ref>
Photovoltaic systems can even be set up by individuals.  Municipal utilities can also benefit citizens financially, while the conventional energy industry profits a relatively small number of shareholders.  Also significant, the decentralized structure of renewable energies enables creation of value locally and minimizes capital outflows from a region.  Renewable energy sources therefore play an increasingly important role in municipal energy policy, and local governments often promote them.

== Status ==

The key policy document outlining the ''Energiewende'' was published by the German government in September 2010, some six months before the Fukushima nuclear accident.<ref name="bmwi-and-bmu-2010"/>  Legislative support was passed in September 2010.  On 6 June 2011, following Fukushima, the government removed the use of nuclear power as a bridging technology as part of their policy.<ref name="bmu-2011">
{{cite book
 | title = The Federal Government's energy concept of 2010 and the transformation of the energy system of 2011 
 | publisher = Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, and Nuclear Safety (BMU)
 | place = Bonn, Germany
 | date = October 2011
 | url = http://www.germany.info/contentblob/3043402/Daten/3903429/BMUBMWi_Energy_Concept_DD.pdf
 | access-date = 2016-06-16
}}</ref>
After the 2013 federal elections, the new CDU/CSU and SPD coalition government continued the ''Energiewende'', with only minor modification of its goals in the coalition agreement.  An intermediate target was introduced of a 55–60% share of renewable energy in gross electricity consumption in 2035.<ref name="german-energy-blog-2013">
{{cite web
 | title = Overview CDU/CSU and SPD present Coalition Agreement – 55% to 60% renewables by 2035 and more
 | date = 27 November 2013
 | website = German Energy Blog
 | location = Germany
 | url = http://www.germanenergyblog.de/?page_id=14825
 | access-date = 2016-06-16
}}</ref>  Germany imports more than half of its energy.<ref>
{{cite web
 | title = INFOGRAPHIC: Can Germany’s Energiewende ensure supply security?
 | work = EurActiv.com
 | url = http://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/infographic/infographic-can-germany-s-energiewende-ensure-supply-security/
 | access-date=2017-02-01
}}</ref>  Important aspects include ({{as of|2016|November|lc=yes}}):

{| class="wikitable" style="text-align: right"
|+ ''Energiewende'' policy targets <span style="font-weight: normal">(with actual figures for 2014)</span><ref name="bmwi-2015-b"/>{{rp|4}}
|-
! Target !! 2014 !! 2020 !! 2030 !! 2040 !! 2050
|-
| align=left colspan = 6 | '''Greenhouse gas emissions'''
|-
| align=left | Greenhouse gas emissions (base year 1990)
| −27.0% || −40% || −55% || −70% || −80 to −95%
|-
| align=left colspan = 6 | '''Renewable energy'''
|-
| align=left | Share of gross final energy consumption
| 13.5% || 18% || 30% || 45% || 60%
|-
| align=left | Share of gross electricity consumption
| 27.4% || 35% || 50% || 65% || 80%
|-
| align=left | Share of heat consumption
| 12.0% || 14% || || ||
|-
| align=left | Share in transport sector
| 5.6% || || || ||
|-
| align=left colspan = 6 | '''Efficiency and consumption'''
|-
| align=left | Primary energy consumption (base year 2008)
| −8.7% || −20% || || || −50%
|- style="vertical-align: top"
| align=left | Final energy productivity (2008–2050)
| align=center | 1.6%/year<br>(2008–2014) || align=center colspan = 5 | 2.1%/year<br>(2008–2050)
|-
| align=left | Gross electricity consumption (base year 2008)
| −4.6% || −10% || || || −25%
|-
| align=left | Primary energy consumption in buildings (base year 2008)
| −14.8% || || || || −80%
|-
| align=left | Heat consumption in buildings (base year 2008)
| −12.4% || −20% || || ||
|-
| align=left | Final energy consumption in transport (base year 2005)
| 1.7% || −10% || || || −40%
|}

In addition, there will be an associated [[Research and development|research and development]] drive.  A chart showing German energy legislation in 2016 is available.<ref name="bmwi-2016a">{{cite book
 | title = Overview of legislation governing Germany's energy supply system: key strategies, acts, directives, and regulations / ordinances
 | date = May 2016
 | publisher = Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi)
 | place = Berlin, Germany
 | url = http://www.bmwi.de/English/Redaktion/Pdf/gesetzeskarte,property=pdf,bereich=bmwi2012,sprache=en,rwb=true.pdf
 | access-date = 2016-04-29
}}</ref>

These targets go well beyond [[Social:European Union|European Union]] legislation and the national policies of other European states.  The policy objectives have been embraced by the German federal government and has resulted in a huge expansion of renewables, particularly wind power. Germany's share of renewables has increased from around 5% in 1999 to 22.9% in 2012, surpassing the OECD average of 18% usage of renewables.<ref name="economist-2012">
{{cite news
 | title = Germany's energy transformation Energiewende
 | date = 28 July 2012
 | newspaper = The Economist
 | url = http://www.economist.com/node/21559667
 | access-date = 2016-06-14
}}</ref>
Producers have been guaranteed a fixed feed-in tariff for 20 years, guaranteeing a fixed income. Energy co-operatives have been created, and efforts were made to decentralize control and profits.  The large energy companies have a disproportionately small share of the renewables market.  However, in some cases poor investment designs have caused bankruptcies and low [[Finance:Return on investment|returns]], and unrealistic promises have been shown to be far from reality.<ref name="latsch-etal-2014">
{{cite news
 | first1 = Gunther | last1 = Latsch
 | first2 = Anne | last2 = Seith
 | first3 = Gerald | last3 = Traufetter
 | date = 30 January 2014
 | title = Gone with the wind: weak returns cripple German renewables
 | newspaper = Der Spiegel
 | url = http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/wind-power-investments-in-germany-proving-riskier-than-thought-a-946367.html
 | access-date = 2016-06-14
}}</ref>
Nuclear power plants were closed, and the existing nine plants will close earlier than planned, in 2022.

One factor that has inhibited efficient employment of new renewable energy has been the lack of an accompanying investment in power infrastructure to bring the power to market. It is believed 8,300&nbsp;km of power lines must be built or upgraded.<ref name="economist-2012"/>  The different German States have varying attitudes to the construction of new power lines. Industry has had their rates frozen and so the increased costs of the ''Energiewende'' have been passed on to consumers, who have had rising electricity bills. Germans in 2013 had some of the highest electricity [[Finance:Price|price]]s (including taxes) in Europe.<ref>
{{cite news
 | title = Troubled turn: Germany’s national energy project is becoming a cause for disunion
 | date = 7 February 2013
 | newspaper = The Economist
 | url = https://www.economist.com/news/europe/21571440-germanys-national-energy-project-becoming-cause-disunion-troubled-turn
 | access-date = 2016-06-14
}}</ref> In comparison, its neighbors (Poland, Sweden, Denmark and nuclear-reliant France) have some of the lowest [[Finance:Cost|cost]]s (excluding taxes) in the EU.<ref name=esIndu>[http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Electricity_price_statistics#Electricity_prices_for_industrial_consumers Electricity prices for industrial consumers] ''Eurostat'', October 2015</ref><ref>[http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/images/4/4f/Half-yearly_electricity_and_gas_prices_%28EUR%29.png Electricity prices (table)] ''Eurostat'', October 2016</ref>

[[File:Power-plant-acceptance.jpg|thumbnail|right|Acceptance of power plants in the neighborhood (Germany 2014)<ref name="strom-report-2014">
{{cite web
 | title = A powerplant in your neighborhood?: acceptance of power plants close to the home
 | date = 2014
 | url = http://strom-report.de/renewable-energy
 | access-date = 2016-06-14
}}</ref>]]

According to a 2014 survey conducted by TNS Emnid for the German Renewable Energies Agency among 1015 respondents, 94 per cent of the Germans support the enforced expansion of Renewable Energies.  More than two-thirds of the interviewees agree to renewable power plants close to their homes.<ref name="aee-2014">
{{cite web
 | title = Akzeptanzumfrage 2014: 92 Prozent der Deutschen unterstützen den Ausbau Erneuerbarer Energien
 | trans-title = Acceptance survey 2014: 92 percent of Germans support the development of renewable energy
 | website = Agentur für Erneuerbare Energien (Renewable Energies Agency)
 | place = Berlin, Germany
 | url = http://www.unendlich-viel-energie.de/themen/akzeptanz2/akzeptanz-umfrage/akzeptanzumfrage-2014
 | access-date = 2016-06-14
}}</ref>
The share of total final energy from renewables was 11% in 2014.<ref>
{{cite book
 | author = REN21
 | title = Renewables 2015: global status report
 | year = 2015
 | publisher = REN21 Secretariat
 | place = Paris, France
 | isbn = 978-3-9815934-6-4
 | url = http://www.ren21.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/REN12-GSR2015_Onlinebook_low1.pdf
 | access-date = 2016-06-14
}}</ref>{{rp|137}}

On 1 August 2014, a revised Renewable Energy Sources Act entered into force.  Specific deployment corridors now stipulate the extent to which renewable energy is to be expanded in the future and the funding rates (feed-in tariffs) will no longer be fixed by the government, but will be determined by auction.<ref name="bmwi-2015-a"/>

Market redesign is a key part of the ''Energiewende''.  The German electricity market needs to be reworked to suit.<ref name="agora-2013">
{{cite book
 | author = Agora Energiewende
 | title = 12 insights on Germany's Energiewende : a discussion paper exploring key challenges for the power sector 
 | year = 2013
 | publisher = Agora Energiewende
 | place = Berlin, Germany
 | url = http://www.agora-energiewende.de/fileadmin/Projekte/2012/12-Thesen/Agora_12_Insights_on_Germanys_Energiewende_web.pdf
 | access-date = 2016-04-29
}}</ref>
Among other things, wind and PV cannot be principally refinanced under the current [[Finance:Marginal cost|marginal cost]] based market.  Carbon pricing is also central to the ''Energiewende'' and the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) needs to be reformed to create a genuine [[Finance:Scarcity|scarcity]] of certificates.<ref name="agora-2015-b">
{{cite book
 | author = Agora Energiewende
 | title = The role of emissions trading in the energy transition: perspectives and limitations on current reform proposals
 | year = 2015
 | publisher = Agora Energiewende
 | place = Berlin, Germany
 | url = http://www.agora-energiewende.de/fileadmin/Projekte/2014/Kohledialog/Agora_Background_Roll_of_Emission_Trading_web.pdf
 | access-date = 2016-04-29
}}</ref>
The German federal government is calling for such reform.<ref name="bmwi-2015-a">
{{cite book
 | title = Making a success of the energy transition: on the road to a secure, clean and affordable energy supply
 | date = September 2015
 | publisher = Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi)
 | place = Berlin, Germany
 | url = http://www.bmwi.de/English/Redaktion/Pdf/making-a-success-of-the-energy-transition,property=pdf,bereich=bmwi2012,sprache=en,rwb=true.pdf
 | access-date = 2016-06-07
}}</ref>
Most of the computer scenarios used to analyse the ''Energiewende'' rely on a substantial carbon price to drive the transition to low-carbon technologies.

Coal-fired generation needs to be retired as part of the ''Energiewende''.  Some argue for an explicit negotiated phase-out of coal plants, along the lines of the well-publicized nuclear phase-out.<ref name="agora-2016a">
{{cite book
 | author = Agora Energiewende
 | title = Eleven principles for a consensus on coal: concept for a stepwise decarbonisation of the German power sector (Short version)
 | year = 2016
 | publisher = Agora Energiewende
 | place = Berlin, Germany
 | url = http://www.agora-energiewende.de/fileadmin/Projekte/2015/Kohlekonsens/Agora_Kohlekonsens_KF_EN_WEB.pdf
 | access-date = 2016-04-29
}}</ref>
Coal comprised 42% of electricity generation in 2015.  If Germany is to limit its contribution to a global temperature increase to 1.5{{nbsp}}°C above pre-industrial levels, as declared in the 2015 Paris Agreement, a complete phase-out of fossil fuels together with a shift to [[100% renewable energy|100% renewable energy]] is required by about 2040.<ref name="quaschning-2016">
{{cite book
 | first = Volker | last = Quaschning
 | title = Sektorkopplung durch die Energiewende: Anforderungen an den Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien zum Erreichen der Pariser Klimaschutzziele unter Berücksichtigung der Sektorkopplung
 | trans-title = Sector coupling via the Energiewende: requirements for the development of renewable energy to achieve the Paris climate protection goals, taking into account sector coupling
 | language = German
 | publisher = Hochschule für Technik und Wirtschaft Berlin
 | place = Berlin, Germany
 | date = 20 June 2016
 | url = http://pvspeicher.htw-berlin.de/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/HTW-2016-Sektorkopplungsstudie.pdf
 | access-date = 2016-06-23
}}</ref>

The ''Energiewende'' is made up of various technical building blocks.  Electricity storage, while too expensive at present, may become a useful technology in the future.<ref name="agora-2014">
{{cite book
 | author = Agora Energiewende
 | title = Electricity storage in the German energy transition: analysis of the storage required in the power market, ancillary services market and the distribution grid
 | year = 2014
 | publisher = Agora Energiewende
 | place = Berlin, Germany
 | url = http://www.agora-energiewende.de/fileadmin/Projekte/2013/speicher-in-der-energiewende/Agora_Speicherstudie_EN_web.pdf
 | access-date = 2016-04-29
}}</ref><ref name="schill-etal-2015">
{{cite journal
 | last1 = Schill | first1 = Wolf-Peter
 | last2 = Diekmann | first2 = Jochen
 | last3 = Zerrahn | first3 = Alexander
 | title = Power storage: an important option for the German energy transition
 | year = 2015
 | journal = DIW Economic Bulletin
 | issn = 2192-7219
 | volume = 5
 | number = 10
 | pages = 137–146
 | url = https://www.econstor.eu/dspace/bitstream/10419/108856/1/820492299.pdf
 | access-date = 2016-06-09
}}</ref>
[[Physics:Efficient energy use|Energy efficiency]] has a key but currently under-recognised role to play.<ref>
{{cite book
 | author = Agora Energiewende
 | title = Benefits of energy efficiency on the German power sector : summary of key findings from a study conducted by Prognos AG and IAEW
 | year = 2014
 | publisher = Agora Energiewende
 | place = Berlin, Germany
 | url = http://www.agora-energiewende.de/fileadmin/Projekte/2012/positive-effekte-energieeffizienz/Agora_ECF_RAP_System_Benefit_Study_short_version_web.pdf
 | access-date = 2016-04-29
}}</ref>
Improved energy efficiency is one of Germany's official targets.  Greater integration with adjoining national electricity networks can offer mutual benefits — indeed, systems with high shares of renewables can utilize geographical diversity to offset intermittency.<ref>
{{cite book
 | author = Agora Energiewende
 | title = Increased integration of the Nordic and German electricity systems : modelling and assessment of economic and climate effects of enhanced electrical interconnection and the additional deployment of renewable energies
 | year = 2015
 | publisher = Agora Energiewende
 | place = Berlin, Germany
 | url = http://www.agora-energiewende.de/fileadmin/Projekte/2014/nordic-german-integration-project/Agora_Increased_Integration_Nordics_Germany_SHORT_WEB.pdf
 | access-date = 2016-04-29
}}</ref>

Germany invested €1.5{{nbsp}}billion in energy research in 2013.<ref name=schiermeier2013>
{{cite news
 | first = Quirin | last = Schiermeier
 | title = Renewable power: Germany's energy gamble: an ambitious plan to slash greenhouse-gas emissions must clear some high technical and economic hurdles
 | newspaper = Nature
 | date = 10 April 2013
 | url = http://www.nature.com/news/renewable-power-germany-s-energy-gamble-1.12755
 | access-date = 2016-05-01
 | doi = 10.1038/496156a
}}</ref>
Of that the German federal government spent €820{{nbsp}}million supporting projects ranging from basic research to applications.<ref name="bmwi-2015-a"/>  The federal government also foresees an export role for German expertise in the area.<ref name="bmwi-2015-a"/>

The social and political dimensions of the ''Energiewende'' have been subject to study.  Strunz argues that the underlying technological, political and economic structures will need to change radically — a process he calls regime shift.<ref name="strunz-2014">
{{cite journal
 | last = Strunz | first = Sebastian
 | title = The German energy transition as a regime shift
 | year = 2014
 | journal = Ecological Economics
 | volume = 100
 | pages = 150–158
 | doi = 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.01.019
}}</ref>
Schmid, Knopf, and Pechan analyse the actors and institutions that will be decisive in the ''Energiewende'' and how latency in the national electricity [[Physics:Infrastructure|infrastructure]] may restrict progress.<ref>
{{cite book
 | last1 = Schmid | first1 = Eva
 | last2 = Knopf | first2 = Brigitte
 | last3 = Pechan | first3 = Anna
 | title = Who puts the German Energiewende into action? : characterizing arenas of change and implications for electricity infrastructure
 | year = 2015
 | url = http://www.transformation-des-energiesystems.de/sites/default/files/de_zentral_Schmid_Best_Paper.pdf
 | access-date = 2016-05-01
}}</ref>

On 3 December 2014, the German federal government released its National Action Plan on Energy Efficiency (NAPE) in order to improve the uptake of energy efficiency.<ref name="nape">
{{cite web
 | title = National Action Plan on Energy Efficiency (NAPE): making more out of energy
 | website = Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi)
 | url = http://www.bmwi.de/EN/Topics/Energy/Energy-Efficiency/nape,did=667778.html
 | access-date = 2016-06-07
}}</ref><ref name="bmwi-2014-b">
{{cite book
 | title = Making more out of energy: National Action Plan on Energy Efficiency
 | date = December 2014
 | publisher = Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi)
 | place = Berlin, Germany
 | url = http://www.bmwi.de/English/Redaktion/Pdf/nape-national-action-plan-on-energy-efficiency,property=pdf,bereich=bmwi2012,sprache=en,rwb=true.pdf
 | access-date = 2016-06-07
}}</ref>
The areas covered are the energy efficiency of buildings, energy conservation for companies, consumer energy efficiency, and transport energy efficiency.  German industry is expected to make a sizeable contribution.

An official federal government report on progress under the ''Energiewende'', updated for 2014, notes that:<ref name="bmwi-2015-b"/>

* energy consumption fell by 4.7% in 2014 (from 2013) and at {{val|13132}}{{nbsp}}petajoules reached it lowest level since 1990
* renewable generation is the number-one source of electricity
* energy efficiency increased by an average annual 1.6% between 2008 and 2014
* final energy consumption in the transport sector was 1.7% higher in 2014 than in 2005
* for the first time in more than ten years, electricity prices for household customers fell at the beginning of 2015

A commentary on the progress report expands on many of the issues raised.<ref name="loeschel-etal-2015">
{{cite book
 | first1 = Andreas | last1 = Löschel
 | first2 = Georg | last2 = Erdmann
 | first3 = Frithjof | last3 = Staiß
 | first4 = Hans-Joachim | last4 = Ziesing
 | title = Statement on the Fourth Monitoring Report of the Federal Government for 2014
 | date = November 2015
 | publisher = Expert Commission on the "Energy of the Future" Monitoring Process
 | place = Germany
 | url = https://www.bmwi.de/BMWi/Redaktion/PDF/V/vierter-monitoringbericht-energie-der-zukunft-stellungnahme-zusammenfassung-englisch,property=pdf,bereich=bmwi2012,sprache=de,rwb=true.pdf
 | access-date = 2016-06-09
}}</ref>

Slow progress on transmission network reinforcement has led to a deferment of new windfarms in northern Germany.<ref name="oltermann-2016">
{{cite news
 | first = Philip | last = Oltermann
 | title = Germany takes steps to roll back renewable energy revolution
 | date = 11 October 2016
 | work = The Guardian
 | location = London, United Kingdom
 | url = https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/oct/11/germany-takes-steps-to-roll-back-renewable-energy-revolution
 | access-date = 2016-10-13
}}
</ref>  The German cabinet earlier approved costly underground cabling in October 2015 in a bid to dispel local resistance against above-ground pylons and to speed up the expansion process.<ref name="chambers-2015">
{{cite news
 | first = Madeline | last = Chambers
 | title = German cabinet agrees to costly underground power lines
 | date = 7 October 2015
 | work = Reuters
 | url = https://www.reuters.com/article/germany-energy-power-idUSL8N12722320151007
 | access-date = 2016-10-20
}}
</ref>

Analysis by Agora Energiewende in late-2016 suggests that Germany will probably miss several of its key ''Energiewende'' targets, despite recent reforms to the Renewable Energy Sources Act and the wholesale electricity market.  The goal to cut emissions by 40% by 2020 "will most likely be missed{{nbsp}}... if no further measures are taken" and the 55–60% share of renewable energy in gross electricity consumption by 2035 is "unachievable" with the current plans for renewables expansion.<ref name="clew-2016a">
{{cite news
 | title = Energiewende: What do the new laws mean?
 | date = 14 October 2016
 | work = Clean Energy Wire (CLEW)
 | location = Berlin, Germany
 | url = https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/germany-set-miss-climate-goals-think-tank/energiewende-what-do-new-laws-mean
 | access-date = 2016-11-08
}}
</ref><ref name="agora-2016b">
{{cite book
 | title = Energiewende: Was bedeuten die neuen Gesetze? – 102/06-H-2016/DE
 | trans-title = Energiewende: What do the new laws mean? — 102/06-H-2016/DE
 | language = German
 | publisher = Agora Energiewende
 | location = Berlin, Germany
 | url = https://www.agora-energiewende.de/fileadmin/Projekte/2016/EEG-FAQ/Agora_Hintergrund_FAQ-EEG_WEB.pdf
 | access-date = 2016-11-08
}}
</ref>  In November 2016, Agora Energiewende reported on the impact of the new {{nowrap|EEG (2017)}} and several other related new laws.  It concludes that this new legislation will bring "fundamental changes" for large sections of the energy industry, but have limited effect on the economy and on consumers.<ref name="clew-2016b">
{{cite news
 | title = Energiewende: What do the new laws mean?
 | date = 18 November 2016
 | work = Clean Energy Wire (CLEW)
 | location = Berlin, Germany
 | url = https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/vw-cuts-23000-german-jobs-putting-jobs-climate/energiewende-what-do-new-laws-mean
 | access-date = 2016-11-22
}}
</ref><ref name="argyropoulos-etal-2016">
{{cite book
 | first1 = Daniel | last1 = Argyropoulos
 | first2 = Philipp | last2 = Godron
 | first3 = Patrick | last3 = Graichen
 | first4 = Philipp | last4 = Litz
 | first5 = Dimitri | last5 = Pescia
 | first6 = Christoph | last6 = Podewils
 | first7 = Christian | last7 = Redl
 | first8 = Stephanie | last8 = Ropenus
 | first9 = Gerd | last9 = Rosenkranz
 | title = Energiewende: What do the new laws mean?: Ten questions and answers about EEG 2017, the Electricity Market Act, and the Digitisation Act — 103/07-H-2016/EN
 | date = November 2016
 | publisher = Agora Energiewende
 | location = Berlin, Germany
 | url = https://www.agora-energiewende.de/fileadmin/Projekte/2016/EEG-FAQ/Agora_FAQ-EEG_EN_WEB.pdf
 | access-date = 2016-11-22
}}
</ref>

The 2016 [[Earth:German Climate Action Plan 2050|Climate Action Plan]] for Germany, adopted on 14{{nbsp}}November 2016, introduced sector targets for [[Chemistry:Greenhouse gas|GHG]] emissions.<ref name="bmub-2016a">
{{cite book
 | title = Klimaschutzplan 2050: Kabinettbeschluss vom 14. November 2016
 | trans-title = Climate protection plan 2050: Cabinet decision of 14 November 2016
 | language = German
 | date = 14 November 2016
 | publisher = Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz, Bau und Reaktorsicherheit (BMUB)
 | location = Berlin, Germany
 | url = http://www.bmub.bund.de/fileadmin/Daten_BMU/Download_PDF/Klimaschutz/klimaschutzplan_2050_bf.pdf
 | access-date = 2016-11-17
}}
</ref><ref name="bmub-2016b">
{{cite book
 | title = Climate Action Plan 2050: Principles and goals of the German government's climate policy
 | date = 14 November 2016
 | publisher = Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz, Bau und Reaktorsicherheit (BMUB)
 | location = Berlin, Germany
 | url = http://www.bmub.bund.de/fileadmin/Daten_BMU/Download_PDF/Klimaschutz/klimaschutzplan_2050_kurzf_en_bf.pdf
 | access-date = 2016-11-17
}} This document is not an extract translated from the official plan.
</ref>  The goal for the energy sector is shown in the table.  The plan states that the energy supply must be "almost completely decarbonised" by 2050, with renewables as its main source.  For the electricity sector, "in the long-term, electricity generation must be based almost entirely on renewable energies" and "the share of wind and solar power in total electricity production will rise significantly".  Notwithstanding, during the transition, "less carbon-intensive natural gas power plants and the existing most modern coal power plants play an important role as interim technologies".<ref name="amelang-etal-2016">
{{cite web
 | first1 = Sören | last1 = Amelang
 | first2 = Benjamin | last2 = Wehrmann
 | first3 = Julian | last3 = Wettengel
 | title = Germany's Climate Action Plan 2050
 | date = 17 November 2016
 | work = Clean Energy Wire (CLEW)
 | location = Berlin, Germany
 | url = https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/germanys-climate-action-plan-2050/
 | access-date = 2016-11-15
}}
</ref>

{{anchor|table-climate-action-plan-targets}}
{| class = "wikitable" style="text-align:right; font-size:100%"
|+ Sector targets for greenhouse gas emission reductions {{nowrap|for 2030}}{{nnbsp}}<ref name="bmub-2016b"/>{{rp|4}}<ref name="amelang-etal-2016"/>
|-
! align="left" | Sector      !! 1990 !! 2014 !!  2030   !! Reduction<br><span style="font-weight: normal; white-space: nowrap">(2030 relative 1990)</span>
|-
| align="left" | Energy      ||  466 ||  358 || 175–183 || 61–62%
|-
| align="left" | Buildings   ||  209 ||  119 ||   70–72 || 66–67%
|-
| align="left" | Transport   ||  163 ||  160 ||   95–98 || 40–42%
|-
| align="left" | Industry    ||  283 ||  181 || 140–143 || 49–51%
|-
| align="left" | Agriculture ||   88 ||   72 ||   58–61 || 31–34%
|-
| align="left" | Other       ||   39 ||   12 ||       5 ||    87%
|- class="sortbottom" style="font-weight: bold"
| align ="left" | Total      || 1248 ||  902 || 543–562 || 55–56%
|- class="sortbottom"
| colspan="5" align="left" style="font-size:85%" | {{plainlist|
* Units: million tonnes [[Physics:Carbon dioxide equivalent|{{CO2}}eq]].
* 1990 and 2014 values are actual.
}}
|}

The fifth monitoring report on the ''Energiewende'' for 2015 was published in December 2016.  The expert commission which wrote the report warns that Germany will probably miss its 2020 climate targets and believes that this could threaten the credibility of the entire endeavor.  The commission puts forward a number of measures to address the slowdown, including a flat national {{CO2}} price imposed across all sectors, a greater focus on transport, and full market exposure for renewable generation.  Regarding the carbon price, the commission thinks that a reformed [[Earth:European Union Emission Trading Scheme|EU{{nbsp}}ETS]] would be better, but that achieving agreement across Europe is unlikely.<ref name="egenter-and-wehrmann-2016">
{{cite news
 | first1 = Sven | last1 = Egenter
 | first2 = Benjamin | last2 = Wehrmann
 | title = Experts call for {{CO2}} price to retain Energiewende's credibility
 | date = 15 December 2016
 | work = Clean Energy Wire (CLEW)
 | location = Berlin, German
 | url = https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/experts-call-co2-price-retain-energiewendes-credibility
 | access-date = 2016-12-15
}}
</ref><ref name="bmwi-2016b">
{{cite book
 | title = Die Energie der Zukunft: Fünfter Monitoring-Bericht zur Energiewende: Berichtsjahr 2015
 | trans-title = The energy of the future: Fifth monitoring report for the ''Energiewende'': Report year 2015
 | language = German
 | date = December 2016
 | publisher = Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi)
 | location = Berlin, Germany
 | url = http://bmwi.de/BMWi/Redaktion/PDF/Publikationen/fuenfter-monitoring-bericht-energie-der-zukunft,property=pdf,bereich=bmwi2012,sprache=de,rwb=true.pdf
 | access-date = 2016-12-15
}}
</ref>

== Citizen support and participation ==

{{as of|2016}}, citizen support for the ''Energiewende'' remains high, with recent surveys indicating that about 80–90% of the public are in favor.<ref name="amelang-and-wettengel-2016">{{cite news | first1 = Sören | last1 = Amelang | first2 = Julian | last2 = Wettengel	 | title = Polls reveal citizens' support for Energiewende | date = 4 May 2016 | website = Clean Energy Wire (CLEW) | location = Berlin, Germany | url = https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/polls-reveal-citizens-support-energiewende | access-date = 2016-09-09}}</ref> 
One reason for the high acceptance is the substantial participation of German citizens in the ''Energiewende'', as private households, land owners, or members of energy cooperatives (''Genossenschaft'').<ref name="borchert-2015">{{cite news | first = Lars | last = Borchert	 | title = Germany between citizens' energy and Nimbyism | date = 10 March 2015 | website = Clean Energy Wire (CLEW) | location = Berlin, Germany | url = https://www.cleanenergywire.org/dossiers/peoples-energiewende | access-date = 2016-09-09}}</ref> 
A 2016 survey showed that roughly one in two Germans would consider investing in community renewable energy projects.<ref name="st-gallen-2016">{{cite web | title = About one in two Germans is willing to financially participate in solar photovoltaic or wind power capacity | date = 8 September 2016 | website = University of St Gallen | location = St Gallen, Switzerland | url = http://www.unisg.ch/en/wissen/newsroom/aktuell/rssnews/forschung-lehre/2016/september/energiewende-deutschland-investoren-umfrage-08september2016 | access-date = 2016-09-09}}</ref>
Manfred Fischedick, Director of the [[Organization:Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy|Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy]] has commented that "if people participate with their own money, for example in a wind or solar power plant in their area, they will also support [the ''Energiewende'']."<ref name="borchert-2015"/> 
A 2010 study shows the benefits to municipalities of community ownership of renewable generation in their locality.<ref name="muehlenhoff-2010">{{cite journal | first = Jörg | last = Mühlenhoff | translator-first = Phil | translator-last = Hill | title = Value creation for local communities through renewable energies: results of the study by the Institute for Ecological Economy Research (IÖW) | date = December 2010 | journal = Renews Special | number = 46 | publisher = German Renewable Energies Agency | location = Berlin, Germany | issn = 2190-3581 | url = https://www.germany.info/contentblob/3097466/Daten/1196468/RenewsSpecial_DD.pdf | access-date = 2016-08-05}} See also Institut für ökologische Wirtschaftsforschung.</ref>
[[File:Investments in renewable energy 2016.png|left|thumb|The share of renewable energy owned by citizens has decreased since the beginning of the Energiewende.[https://energytransition.org/2018/02/share-of-german-citizen-renewable-energy-shrinking/]]]
Estimates for 2012 suggested that almost half the renewable energy capacity in Germany was owned by citizens through energy cooperatives and private initiatives.<ref name="amelang-2016">{{cite news | first = Sören | last = Amelang | title = The reform of the Renewable Energy Act: Germany's energy transition revamp stirs controversy over speed, participation | date = 29 June 2016 | website = Clean Energy Wire (CLEW) | location = Berlin, Germany | url = https://www.cleanenergywire.org/dossiers/reform-renewable-energy-act | access-date = 2016-07-02}}</ref>
More specifically, citizens accounted for nearly half of all installed biogas and solar capacity and half of the installed onshore wind capacity.<ref name="borchert-2015" /><ref name="luenburg-and-nestle-2014">{{cite book | author1 = University of Lüneburg | first2 = Uwe | last2 = Nestle | title = Marktrealität von Bürgerenergie und mögliche Auswirkungen von regulatorischen Eingriffen — Eine Studie für das Bündnis Bürgerenergie e.V. (BBEn) und dem Bund für Umwelt und Naturschutz Deutschland e.V. (BUND) | trans-title = Market reality of citizens energy and potential impact of regulatory intervention — A study for the Alliance for Citizens Energy (BBEn) and Friends of the Earth Germany (BUND) | language = German | date = April 2014 | url = http://www.leuphana.de/fileadmin/user_upload/Forschungseinrichtungen/professuren/finanzierung-finanzwirtschaft/files/Studie_Marktrealitaet_von_Buergerenergie_Leuphana_FINAL_23042014.pdf | access-date = 2016-09-09}}</ref> However, changes in energy policy, starting with the Renewable Energy Sources Act in 2014, have jeopardized the efforts of citizens to participate.<ref name="borchert-2015" /><ref name="morris-2015">{{cite web | first = Craig | last = Morris | title = Few new German energy co-ops in 2014 | date = 24 February 2015 | website = Energy Transition: The German Energiewende | location = Berlin, Germany | url = http://energytransition.de/2015/02/few-new-german-energy-coops-in-2014/ | access-date = 2016-08-04}}</ref> The share of citizen-owned renewable energy has since dropped to 42.5% as of 2016.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://energytransition.org/2018/02/share-of-german-citizen-renewable-energy-shrinking/|title=Share of German citizen renewable energy shrinking|date=2018-02-07|work=Energy Transition|access-date=2018-02-26|language=en-US}}</ref>

== Computer studies ==

Much of the policy development for the ''Energiewende'' is underpinned by [[Computer simulation|computer models]], run mostly by universities and research institutes.  The models are usually based on [[Scenario analysis|scenario analysis]] and are used to investigate different assumptions regarding the stability, sustainability, cost, efficiency, and public acceptability of various sets of technologies.  Some models cover the entire energy sector, while others are confined to [[Engineering:Electricity generation|electricity generation]] and consumption.  A 2016 book investigates the usefulness and limitations of energy scenarios and energy models within the context of the ''Energiewende''.<ref name="dieckhoff-and-leuschner-2016"><!-- publishers url: www.transcript-verlag.de/978-3-8376-3171-5 -->
{{cite book|title=Die Energiewende und ihre Modelle: Was uns Energieszenarien sagen können – und was nicht|date=November 2016|publisher=transcript Verlag|isbn=978-3-8376-3171-5|editor1-last=Dieckhoff|editor1-first=Christian|location=Bielefeld, Germany|language=German|trans-title=The Energiewende and its models: What energy scenarios can tell us – and what not|editor2-last=Leuschner|editor2-first=Anna}}
</ref>

A number of computer studies confirm the feasibility of the German electricity system being 100% renewable in 2050.  Some investigate the prospect of the entire energy system (all energy carriers) being fully renewable too.

=== 2009 WWF study ===

In 2009 [[Organization:World Wide Fund for Nature|WWF]] Germany published a quantitative study prepared by the [[Organization:Öko-Institut|Öko-Institut]], Prognos, and Hans-Joachim Ziesing.<ref name="wwf-germany-2009">
{{cite book
 | author = WWF Germany
 | title = Blueprint Germany : a strategy for a climate safe 2050 
 | year = 2009
 | publisher = WWF Germany
 | place = Berlin, Germany
 | url = http://www.wwf.de/fileadmin/fm-wwf/Publikationen-PDF/blueprint_germany_wwf.pdf
 | access-date = 2016-05-01
}}
</ref>  The study presumes a 95% reduction in [[Chemistry:Greenhouse gas|greenhouse gas]]es by the year 2050 and covers all sectors.  The study shows that the transformation from a high-carbon to a low-carbon economy is possible and  affordable.  It notes that by committing to this transformation  path, Germany could become a model for other countries.

=== 2011 German Advisory Council on the Environment study ===

A 2011 report from the German Advisory Council on the Environment (SRU) concludes that Germany can attain 100% renewable electricity generation by 2050.<ref name="sru-2010">
{{cite press release
 | author = <!-- staff writer, no by-line -->
 | title = Climate-friendly, reliable, affordable: 100% renewable electricity supply by 2050
 | date = 5 May 2010
 | publisher = German Advisory Council on the Environment (SRU)
 | location = Berlin, Germany
 | url = http://www.umweltrat.de/SharedDocs/Pressemitteilungen/EN/CurrentPressReleases/2010/2010_05_PressRelease_100percent_renewable_electricity_%20supply.html;jsessionid=C083C00D1CDE35A6AA1FE4EA50BCBB3B.1_cid335
 | access-date = 2016-11-11
}}
</ref><ref name="sru-2011">
{{cite book
 | title = Pathways towards a 100 % renewable electricity system — Special report
 | date = October 2011
 | publisher = German Advisory Council on the Environment (SRU)
 | location = Berlin, Germany
 | url = http://www.umweltrat.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/EN/02_Special_Reports/2011_10_Special_Report_Pathways_renewables.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
 | access-date = 2016-11-11
}} {{link note|note=Public domain, see PDF metadata}}
</ref>  The [[Organization:German Aerospace Center|German Aerospace Center]] (DLR) REMix high-resolution energy model was used for the analysis.  A range of scenarios were investigated and a cost-competitive transition with good security of supply is possible.

The authors presume that the transmission network will continue to be reinforced and that cooperation with Norway and Sweden would allow their hydro generation to be utilized for storage.  The transition does not require Germany's [[Engineering:Nuclear power phase-out#Germany|nuclear phase-out]] (''{{lang|de|Atomausstieg}}'') to be extended nor the construction of coal-fired plants with [[Physics:Carbon capture and storage|carbon capture and storage]] (CCS).  Conventional generation assets need not be stranded and an orderly transition should prevail.  Stringent energy efficiency and energy saving programs can bring down the future costs of electricity.

=== 2015 Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project study ===

The [[Organization:Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project|Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project]] (DDPP) aims to demonstrate how countries can transform their energy systems by 2050 in order to achieve a low-carbon economy.
The 2015 German country report, produced in association with the Wuppertal Institute, examines the official target of reducing domestic GHG emissions by 80% to 95% by 2050 (compared with 1990).<ref name="hillebrandt-2015">
{{cite book
 | editor-last = Hillebrandt | editor-first = Katharina
 | display-editors = etal
 | title = Pathways to deep decarbonization in Germany
 | year = 2015
 | publisher = Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) and Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI)
 | url = http://deepdecarbonization.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/DDPP_DEU.pdf
 | access-date = 2016-04-28
}}
</ref>  Decarbonization  pathways  for  Germany  are  illustrated  by  means  of  three  ambitious scenarios with energy-related emission reductions between 1990 and 2050 varying between 80%  and  more  than  90%.  Three strategies strongly contribute to GHG emission reduction: 
* energy efficiency improvements (in all sectors but especially in buildings)
* increased use of domestic renewables (with a focus on electricity generation)
* electrification  and  (in  two  of  the  scenarios  also)  use  of  renewable  electricity-based synthetic fuels (especially in the transport and industry sector)
In addition, some scenarios use controversially:
* final energy demand reductions through behavioral changes (modal shift in transport, changes in eating and heating habits)
* net imports of electricity from renewable sources or of [[Biology:Bioenergy|bioenergy]]
* use of [[Physics:Carbon capture and storage|carbon capture and storage]] (CCS) technology to reduce industry sector GHG emissions (including cement production)
Potential co-benefits for Germany include increased energy security, higher competitiveness of and global business opportunities for companies, job creation, stronger GDP growth, smaller energy bills for households, and less air pollution.

=== 2015 Fraunhofer ISE study ===

Using the model REMod-D (Renewable Energy Model – Germany),<ref name="henning-and-palzer-2014">
{{cite journal
 | last1 = Henning | first1 = Hans-Martin
 | last2 = Palzer | first2 = Andreas
 | title = A comprehensive model for the German electricity and heat sector in a future energy system with a dominant contribution from renewable energy technologies — Part I: Methodology
 | year = 2014
 | journal = Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
 | volume = 30
 | pages = 1003–1018
 | doi = 10.1016/j.rser.2013.09.012
}}
</ref> this 2015 Fraunhofer ISE study investigates several system transformation scenarios and their related costs.<ref name="henning-and-palzer-2015">
{{cite book
 | last1 = Henning | first1 = Hans-Martin
 | last2 = Palzer | first2 = Andreas
 | title = What will the energy transformation cost? : pathways for transforming the German energy system by 2050
 | year = 2015
 | publisher = Fraunhofer Institute For Solar Energy Systems ISE
 | place = Freiburg, Germany
 | url = http://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/en/publications/veroeffentlichungen-pdf-dateien-en/studien-und-konzeptpapiere/study-what-will-the-energy-transformation-cost.pdf
 | access-date = 2016-04-29
}}
</ref>  The guiding question of the study is: how can a cost-optimised transformation of the German energy system — with consideration of all [[Physics:Energy carrier|energy carrier]]s and consumer sectors — be achieved while meeting the declared climate protection targets and ensuring a secure energy supply at all times.  [[Physics:Carbon capture and storage|Carbon capture and storage]] (CCS) is explicitly excluded from the scenarios.  A future energy scenario emitting 85% less CO<sub>2</sub> emissions than 1990 levels is compared with a reference scenario, which assumes that the German energy system operates in 2050 the same way as it does today.  Under this comparison, primary energy supply drops 42%.  The total cumulative costs depend on the future prices for carbon and oil.  If the penalty for CO<sub>2</sub> emissions increases to €100/tonne by 2030 and thereafter remains constant and fossil fuel prices increase annually by 2%, then the total cumulative costs of today's energy system are 8% higher than the costs required for the minus 85% scenario up to 2050.  The report also notes:

{{quote|From the macroeconomic perspective, the transformation of Germany's energy system demands a significant shift in cash flow, moving the cash spent on energy imports today to spend it instead on new investments in systems, their operation and maintenance.  In this respect a transformed energy system requires a large expenditure for local added value, a factor which also does not appear in the shown cost analysis.<ref name="henning-and-palzer-2015"/>{{rp|8}}}}

=== 2015 DIW study ===

A 2015 study uses DIETER or Dispatch and Investment Evaluation Tool with Endogenous Renewables, developed by the [[Organization:German Institute for Economic Research|German Institute for Economic Research]] (DIW), Berlin, Germany.  The study examines the power storage requirements for renewables uptake ranging from 60% to 100%.  Under the baseline scenario of 80% (the German government target for 2050), [[Engineering:Grid energy storage|grid storage]] requirements remain moderate and other options on both the supply side and demand side offer flexibility at low cost.  Nonetheless storage plays an important role in the provision of reserves.  Storage becomes more pronounced under higher shares of renewables, but strongly depends on the costs and availability of other flexibility options, particularly on biomass availability.  The model is fully described in the study report.<ref name="zerrahn-and-schill-2015">
{{cite book
 | last1 = Zerrahn | first1 = Alexander
 | last2 = Schill | first2 = Wolf-Peter
 | title = A greenfield model to evaluate long-run power storage requirements for high shares of renewables — DIW discussion paper 1457
 | year = 2015
 | publisher = German Institute for Economic Research (DIW)
 | location = Berlin, Germany
 | issn = 1619-4535
 | url = http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.498475.de/dp1457.pdf
 | access-date = 2016-07-07
}}
</ref>

=== 2016 acatech study ===

A 2016 acatech-lead study focused on so-called flexibility technologies used to balance the fluctuations inherent in power generation from wind and photovoltaics.<ref name="acatech-2016">
{{cite book
 | editor1 = acatech
 | editor2 = Lepoldina
 | editor3 = Akademienunion
 | year = 2016
 | title = Flexibility concepts for the German power supply in 2050 : ensuring stability in the age of renewable energies
 | publisher = acatech — National Academy of Science and Engineering
 | place = Berlin, Germany
 | isbn = 978-3-8047-3549-1
 | url = http://www.acatech.de/fileadmin/user_upload/Baumstruktur_nach_Website/Acatech/root/de/Publikationen/Kooperationspublikationen/ESYS_Position_Paper_Flexibility_concepts.pdf
 | access-date = 2016-06-10
}}
</ref><ref name="lunz-etal-2016">
{{cite journal
 | last1 = Lunz | first1 = Benedikt
 | last2 = Stöcker | first2 = Philipp
 | last3 = Eckstein | first3 = Sascha
 | last4 = Nebel | first4 = Arjuna
 | last5 = Samadi | first5 = Sascha
 | last6 = Erlach | first6 = Berit
 | last7 = Fischedick | first7 = Manfred
 | last8 = Elsner | first8 = Peter
 | last9 = Sauer | first9 = Dirk Uwe
 | title = Scenario-based comparative assessment of potential future electricity systems — A new methodological approach using Germany in 2050 as an example
 | year = 2016
 | journal = Applied Energy
 | volume = 171
 | pages = 555–580
 | doi = 10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.03.087
}}
</ref>  Set in 2050, several scenarios use [[Engineering:Gas turbine#industrial gas turbines for power generation|gas power plants]] to stabilise the backbone of energy system, ensuring supply security during several weeks of low wind and solar radiation.  Other scenarios investigate a 100% renewable system and show these to be possible but more costly.  Flexible consumption and storage control ([[Finance:Energy demand management|demand-side management]]) in households and the industrial sector is the most cost-efficient means of balancing short-term power fluctuations.  Long-term storage systems, based on [[Engineering:Power-to-X|power-to-X]], are only viable if carbon emissions are to be reduced by more than 80%.  On the question of costs, the study notes:

{{quote|Assuming that the price of emissions allowances in 2050 will significantly surpass its current level, a power generation system boasting a high percentage of wind and photovoltaics will, as a rule, come  cheaper  than  a  system  dominated by fossil fuel power plants.<ref name="acatech-2016"/>{{rp|7}}}}

=== 2016 Stanford University study ===

The Atmosphere/Energy Program at [[Organization:Stanford University|Stanford University]] has developed roadmaps for 139 countries to achieve energy systems powered only by wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) by 2050.<ref name="jacobson-etal-2016">
{{cite book
 | first1 = Mark Z | last1 = Jacobson
 | first2 = Mark A | last2 = Delucchi
 | first3 = Zack AF | last3 = Bauer
 | first4 = Savannah C | last4 = Goodman
 | first5 = William E | last5 = Chapman
 | first6 = Mary A | last6 = Cameron
 | first7 = Cedric | last7 = Bozonnat
 | first8 = Liat | last8 = Chobadi
 | first9 = Hailey A | last9 = Clonts
 | first10 = P | last10 = Enevoldsen
 | first11 = Jenny R | last11 = Erwin
 | first12 = Simone N | last12 = Fobi
 | first13 = Owen K | last13 = Goldstrom
 | first14 = Eleanor M | last14 = Hennessy
 | first15 = Jingyi | last15 = Liu
 | first16 = Jonathan | last16 = Lo
 | first17 = Clayton B | last17 = Meyer
 | first18 = Sean B | last18 = Morris
 | first19 = Kevin R | last19 = Moy
 | first20 = Patrick L | last20 = O'Neill
 | first21 = Ivalin  | last21 =Petkov
 | first22 = Stephanie | last22 = Redfern
 | first23 = Robin | last23 = Schucker
 | first24 = Michael A | last24 = Sontag
 | first25 = Jingfan | last25 = Wang
 | first26 = Eric | last26 = Weiner
 | first27 = Alexander S | last27 = Yachanin
 | title = 100% clean and renewable wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) all-sector energy roadmaps for 139 countries of the world
 | date = 24 October 2016
 | publisher = 
 | location = 
 | url = http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/CountriesWWS.pdf
 | access-date =2016-11-23
}}
</ref><ref name="delucchi-etal-2016">
{{cite book
 | first1 = Mark A | last1 = Delucchi
 | first2 = Mark Z | last2 = Jacobson
 | first3 = Zack AF | last3 = Bauer
 | first4 = Savannah C | last4 = Goodman
 | first5 = William E | last5 = Chapman
 | title = Spreadsheets for 139-country 100% wind, water, and solar roadmaps
 | year = 2016
 | url = http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html
 | access-date = 2016-07-26
}} Direct URL: [http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/AllCountries.xlsx xlsx-spreadsheets].
</ref>  In the case of Germany, total end-use energy drops from 375.8&nbsp;GW for [[Finance:Business as usual (business)|business-as-usual]] to 260.9&nbsp;GW under a fully renewable transition.  Load shares in 2050 would be: on-shore wind 35%, off-shore wind 17%, wave 0.08%, geothermal 0.01%, hydro-electric 0.87%, tidal 0%, residential PV 6.75%, commercial PV 6.48%, utility PV 33.8%, and concentrating solar power 0%.  The study also assess avoided air pollution, eliminated global climate change costs, and net job creation.  These co-benefits are substantial.

== Criticisms ==

Using biomass as a fuel produces [[Earth:Air pollution|air pollution]] in the form of [[Chemistry:Carbon monoxide|carbon monoxide]], [[Chemistry:Carbon dioxide|carbon dioxide]], [[Earth:NOx|NOx]] (nitrogen oxides), VOCs ([[Earth:Volatile organic compound|volatile organic compound]]s), particulates and other pollutants. However, since the beginning of the Energiewende the balance of biomass vs other forms of renewable energy has shifted; biomass made up 7.0% of Germany's power generation mix in 2017.<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://energytransition.org/2018/01/german-energy-consumption-2017/|title=Germany’s energy consumption in 2017|date=2018-01-11|work=Energy Transition|access-date=2018-04-10|language=en-US}}</ref>  Biomass has the potential to be a carbon-neutral fuel because growing biomass absorbs carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and a portion of the carbon absorbed remains in the ground after harvest.<ref>https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41603.pdf</ref>  Biomass contains less sulfur than coal and so produces much less sulfur dioxide than coal.<ref>http://www.pfpi.net/air-pollution-2</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=http://michiganmessenger.com/33868/proposed-biomass-plant-better-than-coal|title=Proposed biomass plant: Better than coal?|author=Eartha Jane Melzer|date=January 26, 2010|work=The Michigan Messenger|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20100205080916/http://michiganmessenger.com/33868/proposed-biomass-plant-better-than-coal|archivedate=2010-02-05}}</ref> 

After introduction of the original Renewable Energy Sources Act in 2000 there was a focus on long term costs, while in later years this has shifted to a focus on short term costs and the "financial burden" of the ''Energiewende'' while ignoring environmental externalities of fossil fuels.<ref name="lauber-and-jacobsson-2016">
{{cite journal
 | first1 = Volkmar | last1 = Lauber
 | first2 = Staffan | last2 = Jacobsson
 | year = 2016
 | title = The politics and economics of constructing, contesting and restricting socio-political space for renewables – The German Renewable Energy Act
 | journal = Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions
 | volume = 18
 | pages = 147–163
 | doi = 10.1016/j.eist.2015.06.005
}}</ref>
Nonetheless, for the first time in more than ten years, electricity prices for household customers fell at the beginning of 2015.<ref name="bmwi-2015-b"/>

[[File:Electricity-price-germany-components.png|alt= Components electricity price Germany|thumb|Components of the German electricity price for households in 2016<ref>{{cite web
 | title = Electricity Prices in Europe – Who Pays the Most?
 | website = Stromvergleich
 | url = https://1-stromvergleich.com/electricity-prices-europe/
 | access-date = 2016-09-05
}}</ref>]]

The renewable energy levy to finance green power investment is added to Germans' electricity unit price. The surcharge (22.1% in 2016 ) pays the state-guaranteed price for renewable energy to producers and is 6.35 cents per kWh in 2016.<ref name="rueter-2015" />

A comprehensive study, published in ''Energy Policy'' in 2013, said that the [[Engineering:Nuclear power phase-out#Germany|phase-out]] of Germany's fleet of [[Physics:Nuclear reactor|nuclear reactor]]s, to be complete by 2022, is contradictory to the goal of the climate portion of the program.<ref>{{cite journal | first1 = Kenneth | last1 = Bruninx | first2 = Darin | last2 = Madzharov | first3 = Erik | last3 = Delarue | first4 = William | last4 = D'haeseleer | title = Impact of the German nuclear phase-out on Europe's electricity generation — a comprehensive study | journal = Energy Policy | volume = 60 | pages = 251–261 | year = 2013 | doi = 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.05.026 | url = https://www.mech.kuleuven.be/en/tme/research/energy_environment/Pdf/wpen2012-1 | access-date = 2016-05-12}}</ref> The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recognizes nuclear as one of the lowest lifecycle emissions energy sources available, lower than even solar, and only bested (slightly) by wind. <ref>https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg3/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter7.pdf</ref>  The US National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) also cites nuclear as a very low lifecycle emissions source <ref>https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy13osti/57187.pdf</ref>

German Economy and Energy Minister Sigmar Gabriel admitted "For a country like Germany with a strong industrial base, exiting nuclear and coal-fired power generation at the same time would not be possible."<ref name="severin-and-bryan-2014">{{cite news
 | first1 = Thorsten | last1 = Severin
 | first2 = Victoria | last2 = Bryan
 | title = Germany says can't exit coal-fired energy at same time as nuclear
 | date = 12 October 2014
 | work = reuters
 | url = https://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/12/germany-energy-idUSL6N0S70W720141012
 | access-date = 2016-06-14
}}</ref><ref name="Letter to Swedish Prime Minister">{{cite news
 | first = Sigmar | last = Gabriel
 | date = 13 October 2014
 | title = Dear Stefan Löfven – Letter to Swedish Prime Minister from Sigmar Gabriel
 | work = Altinget
 | url = http://www.altinget.se/misc/SigmarGabriel.pdf
 | access-date = 2016-06-14
}}</ref>
Germany's {{CO2}} emissions were escalating in 2012 and 2013 and it is planned to reopen some of the dirtiest brown coal mines that had previously been closed.  Coal generated electricity increased to 45% in 2013, the highest level since 2007.<ref name="andresen-2014">{{cite news
 | first = Tino | last = Andresen
 | title = Coal returns to German utilities replacing lost nuclear
 | date= 15 April 2014
 | work = Bloomberg
 | url = https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-04-14/coal-rises-vampire-like-as-german-utilities-seek-survival
 | access-date = 2016-06-14
}}</ref>
Nonetheless, in 2014 carbon emissions had declined again.  More renewable energy had been generated and a greater energy efficiency had been achieved.<ref name="rueter-2015">
{{cite news
 | title = Components of the German electricity price
 | date = May 2016
 | url = https://1-stromvergleich.com/electricity-prices-europe/#germany
 |access-date = 2016-08-15
}}
</ref>  From 1999 to 2014 renewable energy production rose from 29 TWh to 161 TWh, while nuclear power fell from 180 to 97 TWh and coal power production fell from 291 to 265 TWh.<ref name="lauber-and-jacobsson-2016" />

== See also ==
{{colbegin}}
* [[100% renewable energy|100% renewable energy]]
* [[Biography:Amory Lovins|Amory Lovins]]
* Electricity sector in Germany
* Energieeinsparverordnung – German building energy regulations
* Energy in Germany
* [[Earth:Energy modeling|Energy modeling]]
* Energy transition
* Fossil-fuel phase-out
* The Fourth Revolution: Energy
* [[Earth:German Climate Action Plan 2050|German Climate Action Plan 2050]] – a climate protection policy document approved in late-2016
* German Renewable Energy Sources Act
* German Solar Industry Association
* Germany National Renewable Energy Action Plan
* List of countries by renewable electricity production
* Low-carbon economy
* Passivhaus
* [[Social:Renewable energy commercialization|Renewable energy commercialization]]
* Renewable energy in Germany
* Renewable energy in the European Union
* [[Physics:Soft energy path|Soft energy path]]
* Wildpoldsried
{{colend}}

== References ==

{{reflist|30em}}

== Further reading ==

* [https://web.archive.org/web/20161006040920/http://www.bmwi.de/English/Redaktion/Pdf/energy-concept%2Cproperty%3Dpdf%2Cbereich%3Dbmwi%2Csprache%3Den%2Crwb%3Dtrue.pdf Energy Concept for an Environmentally Sound, Reliable and Affordable Energy Supply], 28 September 2010 (English translation of the German policy document)
* {{cite book
 | last1 = Morris | first1 = Craig
 | last2 = Jungjohann | first2 = Arne
 | title = Energy democracy: Germany's Energiewende to renewables
 | date = 2016
 | publisher = Springer International Publishing
 | location = Cham, Switzerland
 | isbn = 978-3-319-31890-5
 | doi = 10.1007/978-3-319-31891-2
}}

== External links ==

* [https://www.cleanenergywire.org Clean Energy Wire (CLEW)] – a news service covering the energy transition in Germany
* [http://www.bmwi.de/EN/Topics/energy.html Energy Topics] – hosted by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi)
* [http://www.germanenergyblog.de German Energy Blog] – a legal blog covering the ''Energiewende''
* [http://energytransition.de German Energy Transition] – a comprehensive website maintained by the Heinrich Böll Foundation
* [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_k9id6euk94 Presentation] (30:47) by [[Biography:Amory Lovins|Amory Lovins]] to the [http://www.energiewende2016.com Berlin Energy Transition Dialogue 2016], 17–18 March 2016
* [http://strom-report.de/renewable-energy/ Strom-Report.de] – a statistics website covering renewable energy topics as well as the energy transition in Germany


{{DEFAULTSORT:Energiewende in Germany}}
[[Category:Climate change mitigation]]

{{Sourceattribution|Energiewende in Germany|1}}