View source for Physics:Growth of photovoltaics

{{Short description|Worldwide growth of photovoltaics}}
[[File:2007- New solar installations - annually by country or region.svg |thumb |upright=1.5|Benefitting from favorable policies and declining costs of modules, photovoltaic solar installation has grown consistently, with China expected to account for 50% of new global solar photovoltaic projects by 2024.<ref name=Canary_BloombergNEF_20230915>{{cite web |title=Chart: Solar installations set to break global, US records in 2023 |url=https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/solar/chart-solar-installations-set-to-break-global-us-records-in-2023 |publisher=Canary Media |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230917103745/https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/solar/chart-solar-installations-set-to-break-global-us-records-in-2023 |archive-date=17 September 2023 |date=15 September 2023 |url-status=live }} For relevant chart, Canary Media credits: "Source: BloombergNEF, September 2023"</ref><ref name=BNEF_20230905>{{cite web |last1=Chase |first1=Jenny |title=3Q 2023 Global PV Market Outlook |url=https://about.bnef.com/blog/3q-2023-global-pv-market-outlook/ |publisher=BloombergNEF |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230921083709/https://about.bnef.com/blog/3q-2023-global-pv-market-outlook/ |archive-date=21 September 2023 |date=5 September 2023 |url-status=live }}</ref>]]

Between 1992 and 2023, the worldwide usage of [[Chemistry:Photovoltaics|photovoltaics]] (PV) increased [[Exponential growth|exponentially]]. During this period, it evolved from a [[Finance:Niche market|niche market]] of small-scale applications to a mainstream electricity source.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Jaeger |first=Joel |date=2021-09-20 |title=Explaining the Exponential Growth of Renewable Energy |url=https://www.wri.org/insights/growth-renewable-energy-sector-explained |language=en}}</ref> From 2016-2022 it has seen an annual capacity and production growth rate of around 26%- doubling approximately every three years.<!-- per WP:CALC using average growth over the six year span from 2016 to 2022 from 306.5 to 1225 GWp by taking the sixth root of the ratio-->

When solar PV systems were first recognized as a promising [[Engineering:Renewable energy|renewable energy]] technology, subsidy programs, such as feed-in tariffs, were implemented by a number of governments in order to provide economic incentives for investments. For several years, growth was mainly driven by Japan and pioneering European countries. As a consequence, cost of solar declined significantly due to [[Social:Experience curve effects|experience curve effects]] like improvements in technology and [[Finance:Economies of scale|economies of scale]]. Several national programs were instrumental in increasing PV deployment, such as the [[Earth:Energiewende|Energiewende]] in Germany, the Million Solar Roofs project in the United States, and China's 2011 five-year-plan for energy production.<ref name="guardian-china">{{cite web |last1=Lacey |first1=Stephen |title=How China dominates solar power |url=https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/sep/12/how-china-dominates-solar-power |work=Guardian Environment Network |access-date=29 June 2014 |date=12 September 2011}}</ref> Since then, deployment of photovoltaics has gained momentum on a worldwide scale, increasingly competing with conventional energy sources. In the early 21st century a market for [[Physics:Photovoltaic power station|utility-scale plants]] emerged to complement rooftop and other distributed applications.<ref>{{cite book |last1=Wolfe |first1=Philip |title=Solar Photovoltaic Projects in the mainstream power market |date=2012 |publisher=Routledge |isbn=9780415520485 |pages=225}}</ref> By 2015, some 30 countries had reached grid parity.<ref name="deutsche-2015-chasm">{{cite web |url=https://www.db.com/cr/en/docs/solar_report_full_length.pdf |title=Crossing the Chasm |publisher=Deutsche Bank Markets Research |date=27 February 2015 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150330174336/https://www.db.com/cr/en/docs/solar_report_full_length.pdf |archive-date=30 March 2015 |url-status=live}}</ref>{{rp|9}}

Since the 1950s, when the first solar cells were commercially manufactured, there has been a succession of countries leading the world as the largest producer of electricity from solar photovoltaics. First it was the United States, then Japan,<ref>{{cite book |last1=Wolfe |first1=Philip |title=The Solar Generation |date=2018 |publisher=Wiley - IEEE |isbn=9781119425588 |page=81|title-link=The Solar Generation }}</ref> followed by Germany, and currently China.

By the end of 2022, the global cumulative installed PV capacity reached about 1,185 [[Watt#Gigawatt|gigawatts]] (GW), supplying over 6% of global electricity demand,<ref name=":2">[https://iea-pvps.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/IEA_PVPS_Snapshot_2023.pdf Snapshot of Global PV Markets 2023], IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme. </ref> up from about 3% in 2019.<ref>{{cite web |title=Snapshot 2020 – IEA-PVPS |url=https://iea-pvps.org/snapshot-reports/snapshot-2020/ |website=iea-pvps.org |access-date=10 May 2020}}</ref>
In 2022, solar PV contributed over 10% of the annual domestic consumption of electricity in nine countries, with Spain, Greece and Chile over 17%.<ref name=":2" />

Official agencies publish predictions of solar growth, often underestimating it.<ref name="theenergycollective-iea">{{cite web |last1=Whitmore |first1=Adam |title=Why Have IEA Renewables Growth Projections Been So Much Lower Than the Out-Turn? |url=http://theenergycollective.com/onclimatechangepolicy/286586/why-have-iea-s-projections-renewables-growth-been-so-much-lower-out-tur |website=The Energy Collective |access-date=30 October 2014 |date=14 October 2013 |archive-date=30 October 2014 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20141030110633/http://theenergycollective.com/onclimatechangepolicy/286586/why-have-iea-s-projections-renewables-growth-been-so-much-lower-out-tur |url-status=live}}</ref> The [[Organization:International Energy Agency|International Energy Agency]] (IEA) have consistently increased their estimates for decades, while still falling far short of projecting actual deployment in every forecast.<ref name="energywatchgroup">{{cite web |url=http://energywatchgroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EWG_WEO-Study_2015.pdf |title= The projections for the future and quality in the past of the World Energy Outlook for solar PV and other renewable energy technologies |publisher=Energywatchgroup |date=September 2015 |url-status=dead |archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20160915150103/http://energywatchgroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/EWG_WEO-Study_2015.pdf |archive-date= 15 September 2016}}</ref><ref name="energypost-iea">{{cite web |last1=Osmundsen |first1=Terje |title=How the IEA exaggerates the costs and underestimates the growth of solar power |url=http://www.energypost.eu/iea-exaggerates-costs-underestimates-growth-solar-power/ |website=Energy Post |access-date=30 October 2014 |date=4 March 2014 |archive-date=13 November 2014 |archive-url= https://web.archive.org/web/20141113013504/http://www.energypost.eu/iea-exaggerates-costs-underestimates-growth-solar-power/ |url-status= live}}</ref> [[Physics:BNEF|Bloomberg NEF]] projects an additional 600 GW coming online by 2030.<ref name="BNEF-Projection-2030">{{cite web|title=2H 2023 US Clean Energy Market Outlook |publisher= [[Physics:BNEF|BNEF]] – Bloomberg New Energy Finance |url=https://about.bnef.com/blog/2h-2023-us-clean-energy-market-outlook/ |date=1 November 2023 |access-date=7 January 2024}}</ref> By 2050, the IEA foresees solar PV to reach 4.7 [[Terawatt|terawatt]]s (4,674&nbsp;GW) in its high-renewable scenario, of which more than half will be deployed in China and India, making [[Engineering:Solar power|solar power]] the world's largest source of electricity.<ref name="IEA-roadmap-PV-2014" /><ref>{{cite web |title=One Chart Shows How Solar Could Dominate Electricity in 30 Years |website=Business Insider |url=https://www.businessinsider.com/solar-to-become-largest-electricity-source-by-2050-2014-9?r=US&IR=T |date=30 September 2014}}</ref>

== Solar PV nameplate capacity ==
[[Physics:Nameplate capacity|Nameplate capacity]] denotes the peak power output of power stations in unit watt prefixed as convenient, to e.g. [[Kilowatt|kilowatt]] (kW), megawatt (MW) and [[Gigawatt|gigawatt]] (GW). Because power output for variable renewable sources is unpredictable, a source's average generation is generally significantly lower than the nameplate capacity. In order to have an estimate of the average power output, the capacity can be multiplied by a suitable [[Engineering:Capacity factor|capacity factor]], which takes into account varying conditions - weather, nighttime, latitude, maintenance. 
Worldwide, the average solar PV capacity factor is 11%.<ref name="eia-cf" />
In addition, depending on context, the stated peak power may be prior to a subsequent conversion to [[Physics:Alternating current|alternating current]], e.g. for a single photovoltaic panel, or include this conversion and its loss for a grid connected [[Physics:Photovoltaic power station|photovoltaic power station]].<ref name="epia-2014" />{{rp|15}}<ref name="iea-pvps-snapshot-1992-2013" />{{rp|10}} 

Wind power has different characteristics, e.g. a higher [[Engineering:Capacity factor|capacity factor]] and about four times the 2015 electricity production of solar power. Compared with wind power, photovoltaic power production correlates well with power consumption for air-conditioning in warm countries. {{Asof|2017}}, a handful of utilities have started combining PV installations with battery banks, thus obtaining several hours of [[Physics:Dispatchable generation|dispatchable generation]] to help mitigate problems associated with the [[Finance:Duck curve|duck curve]] after sunset.<ref>{{cite news |url= http://www.treehugger.com/energy-policy/tesla-kills-duck-big-batteries.html |work= TreeHugger |title= Tesla kills the duck with big batteries |first= Lloyd |last= Alter |date= 2017-01-31 |access-date= 2017-03-16}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url= https://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/08/tesla-battery-packs-power-the-hawaiian-island-of-kauai-after-dark.html |publisher= {{wipe|CNBC}} |title= Tesla battery packs power the Hawaiian island of Kauai after dark |first= Phil |last= LeBeau |date= 2017-03-08 |access-date= 2017-03-16}}</ref>

== Current status ==


[[File:World solar generation 2021.png |thumb|upright=1.6| Solar generation by country, 2021<ref name="ember">{{cite web |url = https://ember-climate.org/data-catalogue/yearly-electricity-data/ |title = Yearly electricity data |date = 6 Dec 2023 |website = ember-climate.org |access-date = 23 Dec 2023}}</ref>]]

In 2022, the total global photovoltaic capacity increased by 228&nbsp;GW, with a 24% growth year-on-year of new installations. As a result, the total global capacity exceeded 1,185&nbsp;GW by the end of the year.<ref name=":2"/>

[[Earth:Asia|Asia]] was the biggest installer of solar in 2022, with 60% of new capacity and 60% of total capacity. {{wipe|China}} alone amounted to over 40% of new solar and almost 40% of total capacity, but only 30% of generation.<ref name="ember"/>

[[Earth:North America|North America]] produced 16% of the world total, led by the {{wipe|United States}}. North America had the highest [[Engineering:Capacity factor|capacity factor]] of all continents in 2022 at 20%, ahead of [[Earth:South America|South America]] (16%) and the world at large (14%).<ref name="ember"/>

Almost all of the solar in [[Earth:Oceania|Oceania]] (39TWh) was generated in {{wipe|Australia}} in 2022, in either case amounting to 3% of the world total. However, Oceania had the highest proportion of electricity that was solar in 2022 at 12%, ahead of Europe (4.9%), Asia (4.9%) and the world overall (4.6%).<ref name="ember"/>

== History of leading countries==
[[File:Installed_solar_PV_capacity_log_graph.svg|thumb|The growth of solar PV on a semi-log scale since 1996]]
The United States was the leader of installed photovoltaics for many years, and its total capacity was 77 megawatts in 1996, more than any other country in the world at the time. From the late 1990s, Japan was the world's leader of solar electricity production until 2005, when Germany took the lead and by 2016 had a capacity of over 40 [[Gigawatt|gigawatt]]s. In 2015, China surpassed Germany to become the world's largest producer of photovoltaic power,<ref>{{cite news |title=China's solar capacity overtakes Germany in 2015, industry data show |work={{wipe|Reuters}} |url= https://www.reuters.com/article/china-solar-idUSL3N15533U |date= 21 January 2016}}</ref> and in 2017 became the first country to surpass 100&nbsp;GW of installed capacity.
Leading countries per capita in 2022 were Australia, Netherlands and Germany.

=== United States (1954–1996) ===

The United States, where modern solar PV was invented, led installed capacity for many years. Based on preceding work by Swedish and German engineers, the American engineer Russell Ohl at [[Organization:Bell Labs|Bell Labs]] patented the first modern solar cell in 1946.<ref>{{cite book |last1=Wolfe |first1=Philip |title=The Solar Generation |date=2018 |publisher=Wiley - IEEE |isbn=9781119425588 |page=120|title-link=The Solar Generation }}</ref><ref>[http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO1&Sect2=HITOFF&d=PALL&p=1&u=%2Fnetahtml%2FPTO%2Fsrchnum.htm&r=1&f=G&l=50&s1=2402662.PN.&OS=PN/2402662&RS=PN/2402662 United States Patent and Trademark Office – Database]</ref><ref>{{cite book|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=9CcDAAAAMBAJ&pg=PA41 |title=Magic Plates, Tap Sun For Power|publisher=Popular Science |date=June 1931|access-date=2 August 2013}}</ref> It was also there at Bell Labs where the first practical [[Chemistry:Crystalline silicon|c-silicon]] cell was developed in 1954.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.aps.org/publications/apsnews/200904/physicshistory.cfm|title=Bell Labs Demonstrates the First Practical Silicon Solar Cell|work=aps.org}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal|title=A New Silicon p–n Junction Photocell for Converting Solar Radiation into Electrical Power|author=D. M. Chapin-C. S. Fuller-G. L. Pearson|journal=Journal of Applied Physics |volume=25|issue=5|pages=676–677|doi=10.1063/1.1721711|year=1954|bibcode=1954JAP....25..676C}}</ref> Hoffman Electronics, the leading manufacturer of silicon solar cells in the 1950s and 1960s, improved on the cell's efficiency, produced solar radios, and equipped Vanguard&nbsp;I, the first [[Physics:Solar panels on spacecraft|solar powered satellite]] launched into orbit in 1958.

In 1977 US-President [[Biography:Jimmy Carter|Jimmy Carter]] installed solar hot water panels on the White House (later removed by President Reagan) promoting [[Physics:Solar energy|solar energy]]<ref name="whitehouse-panels">{{cite web |author=Biello David |title=Where Did the Carter White House's Solar Panels Go? |url=http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/carter-white-house-solar-panel-array/ |website=Scientific American |access-date=31 July 2014 |date=6 August 2010}}</ref> and the [[Organization:National Renewable Energy Laboratory|National Renewable Energy Laboratory]], originally named ''Solar Energy Research Institute'' was established at Golden, Colorado. In the 1980s and early 1990s, most photovoltaic modules were used in [[Engineering:Stand-alone power system|stand-alone power system]]s or powered consumer products such as [[Physics:Solar-powered watch|watches]], calculators and toys, but from around 1995, industry efforts have focused increasingly on developing grid-connected rooftop PV systems and [[Physics:Photovoltaic power station|power stations]]. By 1996, solar PV capacity in the US amounted to 77&nbsp;megawatts–more than any other country in the world at the time. Then, Japan moved ahead.

=== Japan (1997–2004) ===

Japan took the lead as the world's largest producer of PV electricity, after the city of Kobe was hit by the Great Hanshin earthquake in 1995. Kobe experienced severe power outages in the aftermath of the earthquake, and PV systems were then considered as a temporary supplier of power during such events, as the disruption of the electric grid paralyzed the entire infrastructure, including gas stations that depended on electricity to pump gasoline. Moreover, in December of that same year, an accident occurred at the multibillion-dollar experimental [[Engineering:Monju Nuclear Power Plant|Monju Nuclear Power Plant]]. A sodium leak caused a major fire and forced a shutdown (classified as [[Physics:International Nuclear Event Scale|INES]] 1). There was massive public outrage when it was revealed that the semigovernmental agency in charge of Monju had tried to cover up the extent of the accident and resulting damage.<ref>{{cite news| title=REACTOR ACCIDENT IN JAPAN IMPERILS ENERGY PROGRAM| first=Andrew | last=Pollack | url=https://www.nytimes.com/1996/02/24/world/reactor-accident-in-japan-imperils-energy-program.html| work=The New York Times| date=24 February 1996}}</ref><ref>wise-paris.org [http://www.wise-paris.org/index.html?/english/ournewsletter/2/page7.html&/english/frame/menu.html&/english/frame/band.html Sodium Leak and Fire at Monju]</ref> Japan remained world leader in photovoltaics until 2004, when its capacity amounted to 1,132&nbsp;megawatts. Then, focus on PV deployment shifted to Europe.

=== Germany (2005–2014) ===

In 2005, Germany took the lead from Japan. With the introduction of the Renewable Energy Act in 2000, feed-in tariffs were adopted as a policy mechanism. This policy established that renewables have priority on the grid, and that a fixed price must be paid for the produced electricity over a 20-year period, providing a guaranteed return on investment irrespective of actual market prices. As a consequence, a high level of investment security lead to a soaring number of new photovoltaic installations that peaked in 2011, while investment costs in renewable technologies were brought down considerably. In 2016 Germany's installed PV capacity was over the 40&nbsp;GW mark.

=== China (2015–present) ===

China surpassed Germany's capacity by the end of 2015, becoming the world's largest producer of photovoltaic power.<ref>{{cite web |url= http://cleantechnica.com/2016/01/22/china-overtakes-germany-become-worlds-leading-solar-pv-country/|title= China Overtakes Germany To Become World's Leading Solar PV Country|first= Joshua|last=S Hill |date= 22 January 2016|access-date= 16 August 2016|work= Clean Technica}}</ref> China's rapid PV growth continued in 2016 – with 34.2&nbsp;GW of solar photovoltaics installed.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.solarserver.com/solar-magazine/solar-news/current/2017/kw03/nea-china-added-3424-gw-of-solar-pv-capacity-in-2016.html|title=NEA: China added 34.24 GW of solar PV capacity in 2016|website=solarserver.com|language=en|access-date=2017-01-22}}</ref> The quickly lowering feed in tariff rates<ref>{{cite news |title=China to cut on-grid tariffs for solar, wind power: state planner |website={{wipe|Reuters}} |date=24 December 2015 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230425210153/https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-renewables-tariffs-idUSKBN0U703Y20151224 |archive-date=2023-04-25 |url-status=live |url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-renewables-tariffs-idUSKBN0U703Y20151224}}</ref> at the end of 2015 motivated many developers to secure tariff rates before mid-year 2016 – as they were anticipating further cuts (correctly so<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2016/10/china-to-lower-feed-in-tariff-cut-subsidies-for-solar-pv-systems.html|title = The Latest in Clean Energy News}}</ref>). During the course of the year, China announced its goal of installing 100&nbsp;GW during the next Chinese Five Year Economic Plan (2016–2020). China expected to spend ¥1 trillion ($145B) on solar construction<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-energy-renewables-idUSKBN14P06P|title=China to plow $361 billion into renewable fuel by 2020|date=2017-01-05|work=Reuters|access-date=2017-01-22}}</ref> during that period. Much of China's PV capacity was built in the relatively less populated west of the country whereas the main centres of power consumption were in the east (such as Shanghai and Beijing).<ref name=":0">{{Cite news|url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40341833|title=Future Energy: China leads world in solar power production|last=Baraniuk|first=Chris|date=2017-06-22|publisher=BBC News|access-date=2017-06-27|language=en-GB}}</ref> Due to lack of adequate power transmission lines to carry the power from the solar power plants, China had to curtail its PV generated power.<ref name=":0" /><ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2088865/china-wasted-enough-renewable-energy-power-beijing|title=China wasted enough renewable energy to power Beijing for an entire year, says Greenpeace|date=19 April 2017|language=en|access-date=19 April 2017}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.scmp.com/business/article/2088905/china-erect-fewer-farms-generate-less-solar-power-2017|title=China to erect fewer farms, generate less solar power in 2017|date=19 April 2017|language=en|access-date=19 April 2017}}</ref>

== History of market development ==
=== Prices and costs (1977–present) ===

{{multiple image
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|align = right
|width1= 220
|width2= 220
|image1=1975 – Price of solar panels as a function of cumulative installed capacity.svg |caption1=[[Swanson's law]]–stating that solar module prices have dropped about 20% for each doubling of installed capacity—defines the "learning curve" of [[Chemistry:Photovoltaics|solar photovoltaics]].<ref name=OWID_PanelCostAndCapacity_2021>{{cite web |title=Solar (photovoltaic) panel prices vs. cumulative capacity |url=https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices-vs-cumulative-capacity |website=OurWorldInData.org |archive-url=https://archive.today/20230929225159/https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices-vs-cumulative-capacity |archive-date=29 September 2023 |date=2023 |url-status=live }} OWID credits source data to: Nemet (2009); Farmer & Lafond (2016); International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).</ref>

|image2=Price history of silicon PV cells since 1977.svg |caption2=Price decline of [[Chemistry:Crystalline silicon|c-Si]] [[Physics:Solar cell|solar cell]]s
}}

{| class="wikitable floatleft" style="font-size: 0.9em; margin-right: 12px; margin-top: 12px"
|-
! Type of cell or module
! Price per Watt
|-
| [[Earth:Polycrystalline silicon|Multi-Si]] [[Physics:Solar cell|Cell]] {{small|(≥18.6%)}} || align=center | $0.07{{small|1}}
|-
| [[Earth:Monocrystalline silicon|Mono-Si]] Cell {{small|(≥20.0%)}} || align=center | $0.09{{small|0}}
|-
| G1 Mono-Si Cell {{small|(&gt;21.7%)}} || align=center | $0.09{{small|9}}
|-
| M6 Mono-Si Cell {{small|(&gt;21.7%)}} || align=center | $0.10{{small|0}}
|-
| 275W - 280W (60P) Module || align=center | $0.17{{small|6}}
|-
| 325W - 330W (72P) Module || align=center | $0.18{{small|8}}
|-
| 305W - 310W Module || align=center | $0.24{{small|0}}
|-
| 315W - 320W Module || align=center | $0.19{{small|0}}
|-
| >325W - >385W Module || align=center | $0.20{{small|0}}
|-
! colspan=2 style="font-weight: normal; font-size: 0.92em; padding: 6px 2px 4px 4px; text-align: left;"| Source: ''EnergyTrend, price quotes, average prices, 13 July 2020''<ref name="energytrend-pricequotes">
{{cite web
 |url=https://pv.energytrend.com/pricequotes.html
 |title=Price quotes updated weekly – PV Spot Prices
 |work=PV EnergyTrend
 |access-date=13 July 2020
}}</ref>&nbsp;
|}
The average price per watt dropped drastically for solar cells in the decades leading up to 2017. While in 1977 prices for [[Chemistry:Crystalline silicon|crystalline silicon]] cells were about $77 per watt, average spot prices in August 2018 were as low as $0.13 per watt or nearly 600 times less than forty years ago. Prices for [[Engineering:Thin-film solar cell|thin-film solar cell]]s and for c-Si [[Physics:Solar panel|solar panel]]s were around $.60 per watt.<ref name="energytrend-pv-spotprice">
{{cite web
 |title=PriceQuotes
 |url=http://pv.energytrend.com/pricequotes.html
 |website= pv.energytrend.com
 |access-date=26 June 2014
 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140630212935/http://pv.energytrend.com/pricequotes.html
 |archive-date=30 June 2014
 |url-status=live
}}</ref> Module and cell prices declined even further after 2014 ''(see price quotes in table)''.

This price trend was seen as evidence supporting [[Swanson's law]] (an observation similar to the famous Moore's Law) that states that the per-watt cost of solar cells and panels fall by 20 percent for every doubling of cumulative photovoltaic production.<ref name="Econ1">{{cite news |url=https://www.economist.com/news/21566414-alternative-energy-will-no-longer-be-alternative-sunny-uplands |title=Sunny Uplands: Alternative energy will no longer be alternative |newspaper=[[Finance:The Economist|The Economist]] |access-date =2012-12-28 |date=21 November 2012}}</ref> A 2015 study showed price/kWh dropping by 10% per year since 1980, and predicted that solar could contribute 20% of total electricity consumption by 2030.<ref>{{cite journal |title=How predictable is technological progress? |journal=Research Policy |volume=45 |issue=3 |pages=647–665 |doi=10.1016/j.respol.2015.11.001 |author= J. Doyne Farmer, François Lafond |date=2 November 2015|arxiv=1502.05274 |s2cid=154564641 }} License: cc. Note: Appendix F. A trend extrapolation of solar energy capacity.</ref>

{{anchor|Typical PV system prices}}
The followed figures for select countries represent the cost per kilowatt of utility-scale solar generation, as well as price per kilowatt-hour in 2022 and a comparison with 2010. Dollars are in 2022 [[Finance:International dollar|international dollar]]s. Data are from IRENA.<ref>{{cite web |url = https://www.irena.org/Data/View-data-by-topic/Costs/Solar-costs |title = 
Solar costs |date = 2023 |website = irena.org |access-date = 7 Jan 2024}}</ref>

{| class="wikitable sortable col1left" {{right}}
! Country !! $ / kW{{br}}2022 !! $ / kWh{{br}}2022 !! $/kWh{{br}}2010 !! %{{br}}down
|-
| Australia || 923 || 0.041 || 0.453 || {{red|-91%}}
|-
| China || 715 || 0.037 || 0.331 || {{red|-89%}}
|-
| France || 1,157 || 0.062 || 0.423 || {{red|-85%}}
|-
| Germany || 996 || 0.080 || 0.401 || {{red|-80%}}
|-
| India || 640 || 0.037 || 0.376 || {{red|-90%}}
|-
| South Korea || 1,338 || 0.074 || 0.482 || {{red|-85%}}
|-
| Spain || 778 || 0.046 || 0.348 || {{red|-87%}}
|-
| United States || 1,119 || 0.058 || 0.235 || {{red|-75%}}
|}

=== Technologies (1990–present) ===

[[File:Global photovoltaics market share by technology 1980-2021.svg|thumb|Global photovoltaics market share by technology 1980-2021. <ref name="Fraunhofer ISE 2022">
 {{cite web
  |title=Photovoltaics Report
  |url=https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/de/documents/publications/studies/Photovoltaics-Report.pdf
  |publisher=Fraunhofer ISE
  |date=22 September 2022
  |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220923220758/https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/de/documents/publications/studies/Photovoltaics-Report.pdf
  |archive-date=23 September 2022
  |url-status=live
 }}</ref>{{rp|24,25}}]]

There were significant advances in conventional [[Chemistry:Crystalline silicon|crystalline silicon]] (c-Si) technology in the years leading up to 2017. The falling cost of the polysilicon since 2009, that followed after a period of severe shortage ''(see below)'' of silicon feedstock, pressure increased on manufacturers of commercial thin-film PV technologies, including amorphous thin-film silicon (a-Si), cadmium telluride (CdTe), and copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS), led to the bankruptcy of several thin-film companies that had once been highly touted.<ref>RenewableEnergyWorld.com [http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2011/01/how-thin-film-solar-fares-vs-crystalline-silicon How thin film solar fares vs crystalline silicon], 3 January 2011</ref> The sector faced price competition from Chinese crystalline silicon cell and module manufacturers, and some companies together with their patents were sold below cost.<ref name=NYT01913>{{cite news|title=Chinese Firm Buys U.S. Solar Start-Up|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/10/business/energy-environment/chinese-company-buys-2-solar-companies-from-west.html|access-date=10 January 2013|newspaper=The New York Times|date=9 January 2013|author=Diane Cardwell|author2=Keith Bradsher}}</ref>

{{Pie chart
| thumb = right
| caption =Global PV market by technology in 2021.<ref name="Fraunhofer ISE 2022" />{{rp|24,25}}
| other = 
| label1 =[[Physics:Cadmium telluride photovoltaics|CdTe]]
| value1 =4.1 
| color1 =#de2821
| label2 =[[Chemistry:Amorphous silicon|a-Si]]
| value2 =0.1
| color2 =#00CC00
| label3 =[[Physics:Copper indium gallium selenide solar cell|CIGS]]
| value3 =0.8
| color3 =yellow
| label4 =[[Earth:Monocrystalline silicon|mono-Si]]
| value4 =82
| color4 =#3300a6
| label5 =[[Earth:Polycrystalline silicon|multi-Si]]
| value5 =13
| color5 =#4fc1cf
}}

In 2013 thin-film technologies accounted for about 9 percent of worldwide deployment, while 91 percent was held by crystalline silicon (mono-Si and multi-Si). With 5 percent of the overall market, CdTe held more than half of the thin-film market, leaving 2 percent to each CIGS and amorphous silicon.<ref name="Fraunhofer-PR-2014">{{cite web
|title=Photovoltaics Report
|url=http://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/en/downloads-englisch/pdf-files-englisch/photovoltaics-report-slides.pdf
|publisher=Fraunhofer ISE
|access-date=31 August 2014
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140809192020/http://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/en/downloads-englisch/pdf-files-englisch/photovoltaics-report-slides.pdf
|archive-date=9 August 2014
|url-status=live
|date=28 July 2014}}</ref>{{rp|24–25}}

*[[Physics:Copper indium gallium selenide solar cell|CIGS technology]]
:Copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) is the name of the semiconductor material on which the technology is based. One of the largest producers of CIGS photovoltaics in 2015 was the Japanese company Solar Frontier with a manufacturing capacity in the gigawatt-scale. Their CIS line technology included modules with [[Physics:Solar cell efficiency|conversion efficiencies]] of over 15%.<ref name="solar-frontier-apr-2015">{{cite web |url=http://www.solar-frontier.com/eng/news/2015/C044372.html |title=Solar Frontier Completes Construction of the Tohoku Plant |work=Solar Frontier |date=2 April 2015 |access-date=30 April 2015}}</ref> The company profited from the booming Japanese market and attempted to expand its international business. However, several prominent manufacturers could not keep up with the advances in conventional crystalline silicon technology. The company Solyndra ceased all business activity and filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2011, and Nanosolar, also a CIGS manufacturer, closed its doors in 2013. Although both companies produced CIGS solar cells, it has been pointed out, that the failure was not due to the technology but rather because of the companies themselves, using a flawed architecture, such as, for example, Solyndra's cylindrical substrates.<ref name="spw-cigs-simplified">
{{cite web
 |last1=Andorka
 |first1=Frank
 |title=CIGS Solar Cells, Simplified
 |url=http://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2014/01/cigs-solar-cells-simplified/
 |work=Solar Power World
 |access-date=16 August 2014
 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140819085013/http://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2014/01/cigs-solar-cells-simplified/
 |archive-date=19 August 2014
 |date=8 January 2014
 |url-status=live
}}
</ref>

* [[Physics:Cadmium telluride photovoltaics|CdTe technology]]
:The U.S.-company First Solar, a leading manufacturer of CdTe, built several of the world's largest solar power stations, such as the Desert Sunlight Solar Farm and Topaz Solar Farm, both in the Californian desert with 550&nbsp;MW capacity each, as well as the 102 MW<sub>AC</sub> Nyngan Solar Plant in [[Engineering:Solar power in Australia|Australia]] (the largest PV power station in the Southern Hemisphere at the time) commissioned in mid-2015.<ref>{{cite web |work=AGL Energy Online |url=http://www.agl.com.au/about-agl/how-we-source-energy/renewable-energy/nyngan-solar-plant |title=Nyngan Solar Plant |access-date=18 June 2015}}</ref> The company was reported in 2013 to be successfully producing CdTe-panels with a steadily increasing efficiency and declining cost per watt.<ref>CleanTechnica.com [http://cleantechnica.com/2013/11/07/first-solar-reports-largest-quarterly-decline-cdte-module-cost-per-watt-since-2007/ First Solar Reports Largest Quarterly Decline In CdTe Module Cost Per-Watt Since 2007], 7 November 2013</ref>{{rp|18–19}} CdTe was the lowest [[Chemistry:Crystalline silicon#Energy payback time|energy payback time]] of all mass-produced PV technologies, and could be as short as eight months in favorable locations.<ref name="Fraunhofer-PR-2014" />{{rp|31}} The company Abound Solar, also a manufacturer of cadmium telluride modules, went bankrupt in 2012.<ref>{{cite news| url=http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_21918799/bankrupt-abound-solar-colo-lives-political-football | work=The Denver Post | first1=Steve | last1=Raabe | first2=Mark | last2=Jaffe | title=Bankrupt Abound Solar of Colo. lives on as political football | date=4 November 2012}}</ref>

*a-Si technology
:In 2012, [[Company:Energy Conversion Devices|ECD solar]], once one of the world's leading manufacturer of amorphous silicon (a-Si) technology, filed for bankruptcy in Michigan, United States. Swiss [[Company:OC Oerlikon|OC Oerlikon]] divested its solar division that produced a-Si/μc-Si tandem cells to Tokyo Electron Limited.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/The-End-Arrives-For-ECD-Solar-|title=The End Arrives for ECD Solar|work=greentechmedia.com|access-date=27 January 2016}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Oerlikon-Divests-its-Solar-Business-and-the-Fate-of-Amorphous-Silicon-Solar|title=Oerlikon Divests Its Solar Business and the Fate of Amorphous Silicon PV|work=greentechmedia.com|access-date=27 January 2016}}</ref> Other companies that left the amorphous silicon thin-film market include [[Company:DuPont|DuPont]], [[Company:BP|BP]], Flexcell, Inventux, Pramac, Schuco, Sencera, EPV Solar,<ref>GreenTechMedia.com [http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Rest-in-Peace-The-List-of-Deceased-Solar-Companies Rest in Peace: The List of Deceased Solar Companies], 6 April 2013</ref> NovaSolar (formerly OptiSolar)<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/NovaSolar-the-former-OptiSolar-Leaving-Smoking-Crater-in-Fremont|title=NovaSolar, Formerly OptiSolar, Leaving Smoking Crater in Fremont|work=greentechmedia.com|access-date=27 January 2016}}</ref> and Suntech Power that stopped manufacturing a-Si modules in 2010 to focus on [[Chemistry:Crystalline silicon|crystalline silicon]] solar panels. In 2013, Suntech filed for bankruptcy in China.<ref>
{{cite news
 |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/21/business/energy-environment/chinese-solar-companys-operating-unit-declares-bankruptcy.html?pagewanted=all
 |title=Chinese Subsidiary of Suntech Power Declares Bankruptcy
 |date=20 March 2013
 |work=The New York Times
}}
</ref><ref name="Bloomberg">
{{cite news
 |url=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-29/suntech-seeks-new-cash-after-china-bankruptcy-liquidator-says.html
 |title=Suntech Seeks New Cash After China Bankruptcy, Liquidator Says
 |date= 29 April 2014
 |work=Bloomberg News
}}</ref>

=== Silicon shortage (2005–2008) ===

[[File:Polysilicon prices history since 2004.svg|thumb|Polysilicon prices since 2004. As of July 2020, the ASP for polysilicon stands at $6.956/kg<ref name="energytrend-pricequotes" />]]

In the early 2000s, prices for polysilicon, the raw material for conventional solar cells, were as low as $30 per kilogram and silicon manufacturers had no incentive to expand production.

However, there was a severe silicon shortage in 2005, when governmental programmes caused a 75% increase in the deployment of solar PV in Europe. In addition, the demand for silicon from semiconductor manufacturers was growing. Since the amount of silicon needed for semiconductors makes up a much smaller portion of production costs, semiconductor manufacturers were able to outbid solar companies for the available silicon in the market.<ref>Wired.com [http://archive.wired.com/science/planetearth/news/2005/03/67013 Silicon Shortage Stalls Solar] 28 March 2005</ref>

Initially, the incumbent polysilicon producers were slow to respond to rising demand for solar 
applications, because of their painful experience with over-investment in the past. Silicon prices sharply rose to about $80 per kilogram, and reached as much as $400/kg for long-term contracts and spot prices. In 2007, the constraints on silicon became so severe that the solar industry was forced to idle about a quarter of its cell and module manufacturing capacity—an estimated 777&nbsp;MW of the then available production capacity. The shortage also provided silicon specialists with both the cash and an incentive to develop new technologies and several new producers entered the market. Early responses from the solar industry focused on improvements in the recycling of silicon. When this potential was exhausted, companies have been taking a harder look at alternatives to the conventional Siemens process.<ref>
{{cite web
 |title=Solar State of the Market Q3 2008 – Rise of Upgraded Metallurgical Silicon
 |url=http://www.solarweb.net/forosolar/attachments/aspectos-economicos-legales-administrativos/937d1241049999-verdadero-coste-la-energia-solar-espana-lux_research_rise_of_upgraded_metallurgical_silicon.pdf
 |website=SolarWeb
 |publisher= Lux Research Inc.
 |page=1
 |access-date=12 October 2014
 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20141018144208/http://www.solarweb.net/forosolar/attachments/aspectos-economicos-legales-administrativos/937d1241049999-verdadero-coste-la-energia-solar-espana-lux_research_rise_of_upgraded_metallurgical_silicon.pdf
 |archive-date=18 October 2014
 |url-status=dead
}}</ref>

As it takes about three years to build a new polysilicon plant, the shortage continued until 2008. Prices for conventional solar cells remained constant or even rose slightly during the period of silicon shortage from 2005 to 2008. This is notably seen as a "shoulder" that sticks out in the [[commons:File:Swansons-law.png|Swanson's PV-learning curve]] and it was feared that a prolonged shortage could delay solar power becoming competitive with conventional energy prices without subsidies.

In the meantime the solar industry lowered the number of grams-per-watt by reducing wafer thickness and kerf loss, increasing yields in each manufacturing step, reducing module loss, and raising panel efficiency. Finally, the ramp up of polysilicon production alleviated worldwide markets from the scarcity of silicon in 2009 and subsequently lead to an overcapacity with sharply declining prices in the photovoltaic industry for the following years.

=== Solar overcapacity (2009–2013) ===
{{thumb
| width = 280
|content=
{{center|'''Solar module production'''}}
{{center|style=font-size: 0.85em;|'''utilization of production capacity in %'''}}
{{Graph:Chart
| width = 220
| height = 200
| xAxisAngle = -40
| x = 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013
| yAxisMax = 1
| yAxisMin = 0
| yAxisFormat = %
| y = .65, , .56, , .50, .50, .48, .60, .61, .64, .70, .73, .61, .71, .49, .52, .52, .57, .65, .58, .63
| showSymbols = 
}}
|caption = Utilization rate of solar PV module production capacity in % since 1993<ref name="iea-pvps-trends-2014" />{{rp|47}}
}}

As the [[Earth:Polycrystalline silicon#Manufacturers|polysilicon]] industry had started to build additional large production capacities during the shortage period, prices dropped as low as $15 per kilogram forcing some producers to suspend production or exit the sector. Prices for silicon stabilized around $20 per kilogram and the booming solar PV market helped to reduce the enormous global overcapacity from 2009 onwards. However, overcapacity in the PV industry continued to persist. In 2013, global record deployment of 38&nbsp;GW (updated EPIA figure<ref name="epia-2014" />) was still much lower than China's annual production capacity of approximately 60&nbsp;GW. Continued overcapacity was further reduced by significantly lowering solar module prices and, as a consequence, many manufacturers could no longer cover costs or remain competitive. As worldwide growth of PV deployment continued, the gap between overcapacity and global demand was expected in 2014 to close in the next few years.<ref>
{{cite web
 |title=Annual Report 2013/2014
 |url=http://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/en/publications/veroeffentlichungen-pdf-dateien-en/infomaterial/annual-reports/fraunhofer-ise-annual-report-2013-14.pdf
 |website=ISE.Fraunhofer.de
 |publisher=Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems-ISE
 |access-date=5 November 2014
 |archive-url=https://www.webcitation.org/6TrDlHLYv?url=http://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/en/publications/veroeffentlichungen-pdf-dateien-en/infomaterial/annual-reports/fraunhofer-ise-annual-report-2013-14.pdf
 |archive-date=5 November 2014
 |page=1
 |date=2014
 |url-status=live
}}</ref>

IEA-PVPS published in 2014 historical data for the worldwide utilization of solar PV module production capacity that showed a slow return to normalization in manufacture in the years leading up to 2014. The utilization rate is the ratio of production capacities versus actual production output for a given year. A low of 49% was reached in 2007 and reflected the peak of the silicon shortage that idled a significant share of the module production capacity. As of 2013, the utilization rate had recovered somewhat and increased to 63%.<ref name="iea-pvps-trends-2014" />{{rp|47}}

=== Anti-dumping duties (2012–present) ===

After anti-dumping petition were filed and investigations carried out,<ref>Europa.eu [http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-12-647_en.htm EU initiates anti-dumping investigation on solar panel imports from China]</ref> the United States imposed tariffs of 31 percent to 250 percent on solar products imported from China in 2012.<ref>[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-17/u-s-imposes-anti-dumping-duties-for-chinese-solar-imports.html U.S. Imposes Anti-Dumping Duties on Chinese Solar Imports], 12 May 2012</ref> A year later, the EU also imposed definitive anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures on imports of solar panels from China at an average of 47.7 percent for a two-year time span.<ref>Europa.eu [http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-13-1190_en.htm EU imposes definitive measures on Chinese solar panels, confirms undertaking with Chinese solar panel exporters], 2 December 2013</ref>

Shortly thereafter, China, in turn, levied duties on U.S. polysilicon imports, the feedstock for the production of solar cells.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2013-09/16/content_16974631.htm |title=China to levy duties on US polysilicon imports |date=16 September 2013 |work=China Daily |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160305013506/http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2013-09/16/content_16974631.htm |archive-date=5 March 2016 |url-status=live}}</ref> In January 2014, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce set its anti-dumping tariff on U.S. polysilicon producers, such as Hemlock Semiconductor Corporation to 57%, while other [[Earth:Polycrystalline silicon#Manufacturers|major polysilicon producing companies]], such as German Wacker Chemie and Korean OCI were much less affected. All this has caused much controversy between proponents and opponents and was subject of debate.

== History of deployment ==

[[File:PV power plant cluster near Bhadla (India).png|thumb|2016-2020 development of the Bhadla Solar Park (India), documented on Sentinel-2 satellite imagery]]

Deployment figures on a global, regional and nationwide scale are well documented since the early 1990s. While worldwide photovoltaic capacity grew continuously, deployment figures by country were much more dynamic, as they depended strongly on national policies. A number of organizations release comprehensive reports on PV deployment on a yearly basis. They include annual and cumulative deployed PV [[Physics:Nameplate capacity|capacity]], typically given in [[Watt-peak|watt-peak]], a break-down by markets, as well as in-depth analysis and forecasts about future trends.


=== Growth by year ===

{{Image frame
 |width = 450
 |align=right
 |pos=bottom
 |content=
 <div style="margin: 20px 0px -40px -40px;">
 {{ #invoke:Chart
  | bar-chart
  | width = 450
  | height = 250
  | stack = 1
  | group 1 = .454 : .566 : 1.088 : 1.389 : 1.547 : 2.524 : 6.661 : 7.340 : 17.151 : 30.133: 30.011 : 41 : 45 : 56 : 75 : 101 : 107 : 119 : 145 : 182 : 252 : 0
  | group 2 = 0 : 0 : 0 : 0 : 0 : 0 : 0 : 0 : 0 : 0 : 0 : 0 : 0 : 0 : 0 : 0 : 0 : 0 : 0 : 0 : 0 : 413
  | colors = #ffcc00 : #FF0000
  | group names = annual deployment : 2023 estimate
  | hide group legends =1
  | units suffix = _GW
  | x legends = 2002 : : : : 2006 : : : : 2010 : : : : 2014 : : : : 2018 : : : : : 2023
 }}
 </div>
|caption =<div style="padding: 10px 2px 6px 6px;">Added capacity in gigawatts ''(hover with mouse over bar)''.</div><div style="padding-left: 6px; font-size: 1.1em;">
{{legend2|#ffcc00|annual deployment since 2002}}&nbsp;
{{legend2|red|2023: 413&nbsp;GW (estimate) }} <ref>{{cite web | url=https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2023/12/25/all-i-want-for-christmas-is-one-terawatt-of-solar-deployed-annually/ | title=All I want for Christmas is one terrawatt of solar installed annually | date=23 December 2023 }}</ref>
</div>
}}

[[File:World solar generation yearly.png |thumb|upright=2| Yearly solar generation by continent]]

[[File:Grid parity map.svg|thumb|upright=2|Grid parity for solar PV systems around the world<br/>{{legend2|#00CC66|border=1px solid #666|Reached grid-parity before 2014}}<br/>{{legend2|#66a6a6|border=1px solid #666|Reached grid-parity after 2014}}<br/>{{legend2|#a6a666|border=1px solid #666|Reached grid-parity only for peak prices}}<br/>{{legend2|#ff9955|border=1px solid #666|U.S. states poised to reach grid-parity}}<br/>''Source: Deutsche Bank, as of February 2015'']]

{{Image frame
 |width = 250
 |align=right
 |pos=bottom
 |content='''Number of countries with PV<br/> capacities in the gigawatt-scale'''
 {{Graph:Chart
 | width=200
 | height=200
 | xAxisTitle = Year
 | xAxisAngle = -70
 | type=stackedrect
 | y3 = 0 ,  0 ,  0 ,  0 ,  0 ,  0 ,  0 ,  0 ,  0  ,  0  ,  0  ,  0  ,  0  ,  1 ,  1 ,  1 ,  1 , 2
 | y2 = 0 ,  0 ,  0 ,  0 ,  0 ,  0 ,  1 ,  2 ,  2  ,  5  ,  5  ,  5  ,  6  ,  6 ,  7 ,  8 ,  12 , 12
 | y1 = 2 ,  2 ,  2 ,  2 ,  4 ,  5 ,  7 ,  8 ,  12 ,  12 ,  15 ,  18 ,  19 ,  22 ,  24 ,  29 ,  29 , 31
 | colors =  #F5B800 ,  #FF0F4B , #990000
 | x = 2004,2005,2006,2007,2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021
 }}
|caption =Growing number of solar gigawatt-markets
{{Collapsible list 
 | title = {{legend2|#F5B800|border=1px solid #C29100|Over 1 GW}}
 |{{aligned table | cols=5 
  | style=width: 60%; text-align: left; font-size: 100%; margin-left: 22px;
  | 2021
  | {{flagicon|Argentina}}
  | {{flagicon|Pakistan}}
  | {{flagicon|Kazakhstan}}
  |
  | 2020
  | {{flagicon|POR}}
  | {{flagicon|JOR}}
  | {{flagicon|SWE}}
  | {{flagicon|Malaysia}}
  | 2019
  | {{flagicon|RUS}} {{flagicon|HUN}}
  | {{flagicon|DEN}} {{flagicon|VIE}}
  | {{flagicon|POL}}
  | {{flagicon|UAE}}
  | 2018
  | {{flagicon|MEX}} <!-- <ref>{{cite news|title=Gigawatt solar markets seen in 13 countries in 2018 - GTM Research|url=https://www.pv-tech.org/news/gigawatt-solar-markets-seen-in-13-countries-in-2018-gtm-research|access-date=27 April 2018|work=PV Tech|language=en}}</ref>-->
  | {{flagicon|EGY}} <!-- <ref>{{cite news|title=Gigawatt solar markets seen in 13 countries in 2018 - GTM Research|url=https://www.pv-tech.org/news/gigawatt-solar-markets-seen-in-13-countries-in-2018-gtm-research|access-date=27 April 2018|work=PV Tech|language=en}}</ref>-->
  | {{flagicon|UKR}} 
  | 
  | 2017
  | {{flagicon|PHI}} <!-- http://taiyangnews.info/markets/philippines-pv-close-to-1-gw/ -->
  | {{flagicon|TUR}} 
  | {{flagicon|ISR}} 
  | {{flagicon|BRA}} <!-- https://cleantechnica.com/2018/05/15/brazil-to-hit-2-gigawatts-of-installed-solar-by-end-of-2018/ Access date 2018-01-23 -->
  | 2016
  | {{flagicon|CHL}}
  | {{flagicon|AUT}}
  | 
  |
  | 2015
  | {{flagicon|TWN}}
  | {{flagicon|PAK}}
  | {{flagicon|SAF}}
  |
  | 2014
  | {{flagicon|THA}}
  | {{flagicon|NLD}}
  | {{flagicon|SWI}}
  | 
  | 2013
  | {{flagicon|CAN}}
  | {{flagicon|ROM}}
  | {{flagdeco|KOR}}
  |
  | 2012
  | {{flagicon|BUL}}
  | {{flagicon|GRE}}
  | {{flagicon|IND}}
  | {{flagicon|UK}}
  | 2011
  | {{flagicon|AUS}}
  | {{flagicon|CHN}}
  | 
  | 
  | 2010
  | {{flagicon|BEL}}
  | {{flagicon|CZE}}
  | {{flagicon|FRA}} 
  | 
  | 2009 
  | {{flagicon|ITA}}
  | 
  | 
  | 
  | 2008 
  | {{flagicon|ESP}}
  | {{flagicon|USA}}
  | 
  | 
  | 2004 
  | {{flagicon|JPN}}
  | {{flagicon|GER}}
  | 
  | 
  }} <!-- end of table-->
}} <!-- end of list -->
{{Collapsible list 
 | title = {{legend2|#FF0F4B|border=1px solid #C20030|Over 10 GW}}
 |{{aligned table | cols=5 
  | style=width: 50%; text-align: left; font-size: 100%; margin-left: 22px;
  | 2022
  | {{flagicon|Poland}} 
  |
  |
  |
  | 2021
  | {{flagicon|Brazil}} 
  |
  |
  |
  | 2020
  | {{flagicon|ESP}}
  | {{flagicon|VIE}}
  | {{flagicon|FRA}}
  | {{flagicon|NED}}
  | 2019
  | {{flagicon|KOR}}
  | 
  | 
  |
  | 2018
  | {{flagicon|AUS}} <!-- http://pv-map.apvi.org.au/analyses -->
  | 
  | 
  |
  | 2017
  | {{flagicon|IND}}
  | 
  | 
  |
  | 2016
  | {{flagicon|GBR}}
  | 
  | 
  |
  | 2013
  | {{flagicon|USA}}
  | {{flagicon|JPN}}
  | {{flagicon|CHN}}
  |
  | 2011
  | {{flagicon|ITA}}
  |
  |
  |
  | 2010 
  | {{flagicon|GER}}
  |
  |
  |
  }}<!-- end of table-->
 }}<!-- end of list -->
{{Collapsible list 
 | title = {{legend2|#990000|border=1px solid #200000|Over 100 GW}}
 |{{aligned table | cols=5 
  | style=width: 50%; text-align: left; font-size: 100%; margin-left: 22px;
  | 2021
  | {{flagicon|USA}}<ref>{{cite news |last1=Lewis |first1=Michelle |title=US solar sets a Q1 record, but there may be trouble ahead |url=https://electrek.co/2021/06/15/egeb-us-solar-sets-a-q1-record-but-there-may-be-trouble-ahead/ |access-date=18 June 2021 |work=Electrek |date=2021-06-15}}</ref>
  | &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;
  | &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;
  | &nbsp;
  | 2017
  | {{flagicon|CHN}}
  | &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;
  | &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;
  | &nbsp;
  }}<!-- end of table-->
 }}<!-- end of list -->
}}

Between 2000 and 2022, solar capacity increased by an average of 37% per year, doubling every 2.2 years. Over the same time period, the capacity factor increased from 10% to 14%. Data in the following table are from Ember, released in 2023,<ref name="ember"/> with earlier data from BP released in 2014.<ref name="BP2014">{{cite web |url = http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/excel/Energy-Economics/statistical-review-2014/BP-Statistical_Review_of_world_energy_2014_workbook.xlsx |title = Title |date = 2014 |website = bp.com |access-date = 7 January 2024 |archive-url = https://web.archive.org/web/20140622090917/http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/excel/Energy-Economics/statistical-review-2014/BP-Statistical_Review_of_world_energy_2014_workbook.xlsx |archive-date = 22 June 2014}}</ref>

{| class="wikitable sortable" {{right}}
! Year
! {{abbr|Gen<br/>(TWh)|Generation (Terrawatt-hours)}}
! {{abbr|%<br/>gen.|Percent of world generation from solar power}}
! {{abbr|Cap.<br/>(GW)|Capacity (Gigawatts)}}
! {{abbr|% cap.<br/>growth|Increase in solar capacity}}
! {{abbr|Cap.<br/>fac.|Capacity factor}}
| colspan=6 | {{center|BP data<ref name="BP2014"/>}}
|-
| 1989 || 0.3 ||  ||  ||  || 
|-
| 1990 || 0.4 ||  ||  ||  || 
|-
| 1991 || 0.5 ||  ||  ||  || 
|-
| 1992 || 0.5 ||  ||  ||  || 
|-
| 1993 || 0.6 ||  ||  ||  || 
|-
| 1994 || 0.6 ||  ||  ||  || 
|-
| 1995 || 0.6 ||  ||  ||  || 
|-
| 1996 || 0.7 ||  || 0.3 ||  || 
|-
| 1997 || 0.7 ||  || 0.4 || 37% || 
|-
| 1998 || 0.8 ||  || 0.6 || 34% || 
|-
| 1999 || 0.9 ||  || 0.8 || 43% || 
|-
| colspan=6 | {{center|Ember data<ref name="ember"/>}}
|-
| 2000 || 1.1 || 0.01 || 1.2 ||  || 10%
|-
| 2001 || 1.4 || 0.01 || 1.5 || 20% || 11%
|-
| 2002 || 1.7 || 0.01 || 1.8 || 24% || 11%
|-
| 2003 || 2.1 || 0.01 || 2.4 || 28% || 10%
|-
| 2004 || 2.8 || 0.02 || 3.4 || 46% || 9%
|-
| 2005 || 3.9 || 0.02 || 5.0 || 44% || 9%
|-
| 2006 || 5.3 || 0.03 || 6.5 || 31% || 9%
|-
| 2007 || 7.2 || 0.04 || 9.0 || 38% || 9%
|-
| 2008 || 11.7 || 0.06 || 15.3 || 70% || 9%
|-
| 2009 || 19.6 || 0.10 || 23.6 || 55% || 9%
|-
| 2010 || 32.1 || 0.15 || 41.6 || 76% || 9%
|-
| 2011 || 63.1 || 0.29 || 73.9 || 78% || 10%
|-
| 2012 || 96.0 || 0.43 || 104.2 || 41% || 11%
|-
| 2013 || 131.8 || 0.57 || 141.4 || 36% || 11%
|-
| 2014 || 198.0 || 0.84 || 180.8 || 28% || 13%
|-
| 2015 || 255.8 || 1.08 || 229.1 || 27% || 13%
|-
| 2016 || 328.0 || 1.34 || 301.3 || 32% || 12%
|-
| 2017 || 444.6 || 1.77 || 396.4 || 32% || 13%
|-
| 2018 || 572.2 || 2.19 || 492.6 || 24% || 13%
|-
| 2019 || 702.8 || 2.65 || 595.8 || 21% || 13%
|-
| 2020 || 846.9 || 3.20 || 728.1 || 22% || 13%
|-
| 2021 || 1047.1 || 3.74 || 872.5 || 20% || 14%
|-
| 2022 || 1310.0 || 4.57 || 1061.7 || 22% || 14%
|}
{{clear}}

== See also ==
* [[Engineering:Concentrated solar power#Deployment around the world|Growth of concentrated solar power (CSP)]]
* List of renewable energy topics by country and territory
* Solar power by country
* [[Physics:Timeline of solar cells|Timeline of solar cells]]
* Wind power by country

== Notes ==
{{reflist|group=lower-alpha}}

== References ==
{{reflist|refs=

<!-- list of references contains reports from BP, EPIA, PV-Barometre and IEA-PVPS -->

<!--EPIA-Reports Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics -->

<ref name="iea-pvps-snapshot-1992-2013">
{{cite web
 |url=http://www.iea-pvps.org/fileadmin/dam/public/report/statistics/PVPS_report_-_A_Snapshot_of_Global_PV_-_1992-2013_-_final_3.pdf
 |title=Snapshot of Global PV 1992–2013
 |website= iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=trends0
 |publisher=International Energy Agency – Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme
 |date=31 March 2014
 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140407081455/http://www.iea-pvps.org/fileadmin/dam/public/report/statistics/PVPS_report_-_A_Snapshot_of_Global_PV_-_1992-2013_-_final_3.pdf
 |archive-date=7 April 2014
 |url-status=live
}}
</ref>

<!--
<ref name="epia-2016">
{{cite web
|title=Global Market Outlook for Solar Power 2016–2020
|url=http://www.solareb2b.it/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/SPE_GMO2016_full_version.pdf
|publisher=Solar Power Europe (SPE), formerly known as EPIA – European Photovoltaic Industry Association
|access-date=11 January 2016
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170113155012/http://www.solareb2b.it/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/SPE_GMO2016_full_version.pdf
|archive-date=13 January 2017
|url-status=live
}}
</ref>
-->

<ref name="epia-2014">
{{cite web
|title=Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics 2014–2018
|url=http://www.epia.org/fileadmin/user_upload/Publications/EPIA_Global_Market_Outlook_for_Photovoltaics_2014-2018_-_Medium_Res.pdf
|website= epia.org
|publisher=EPIA – European Photovoltaic Industry Association
|access-date=12 June 2014
|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140625154728/http://www.epia.org/fileadmin/user_upload/Publications/EPIA_Global_Market_Outlook_for_Photovoltaics_2014-2018_-_Medium_Res.pdf
|archive-date=25 June 2014
|url-status=live
}}
</ref>

<ref name="iea-pvps-trends-2014">
{{cite web
 |website= iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=trends
 |url=http://www.iea-pvps.org/fileadmin/dam/public/report/statistics/IEA_PVPS_Trends_2014_in_PV_Applications_-_lr.pdf
 |title=IEA PVPS TRENDS 2014 in Photovoltaic Applications
 |date=12 October 2014
 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20141228113645/http://www.iea-pvps.org/fileadmin/dam/public/report/statistics/IEA_PVPS_Trends_2014_in_PV_Applications_-_lr.pdf
 |archive-date=28 December 2014
 |url-status=live
}}</ref>

<ref name="IEA-roadmap-PV-2014">
{{cite web
 |author=International Energy Agency
 |website= iea.org
 |title=Technology Roadmap: Solar Photovoltaic Energy
 |url=http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/TechnologyRoadmapSolarPhotovoltaicEnergy_2014edition.pdf
 |publisher=IEA
 |access-date=7 October 2014
 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20141001012612/http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/TechnologyRoadmapSolarPhotovoltaicEnergy_2014edition.pdf
 |archive-date=1 October 2014|year=2014
 |url-status=live
}}</ref>

<ref name="eia-cf">
{{cite web
 |website= eia.gov
 |url=https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=22832
 |title=Electric generator capacity factors vary widely around the world
 |date=6 September 2015
 |access-date=17 June 2018
 }}</ref>

}}

== External links ==
*[http://www.iea.org/publications/ IEA–International Energy Agency, Publications]
*[http://www.iea-pvps.org/ IEA–PVPS, IEA's Photovoltaic Power System Programme]
*[http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/publications.html NREL–National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Publications]
*[http://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/en FHI–ISE, Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems]
*[http://apvi.org.au/ APVI–Australian PV Institute]
*[http://www.epia.org/ EPIA–European Photovoltaic Industry Association]
*[http://www.seia.org/ SEIA–Solar Energy Industries Association]
*[http://www.cansia.ca/ CanSIA–Canadian Solar Industries Association]
*{{YouTube|YL4-rK5lhUw|Presentation}} – Cost analysis of current PV production, PV learning curve – UNSW, Pierre Verlinden, Trina Solar


{{DEFAULTSORT:Growth of Photovoltaics}}

[[Category:Photovoltaics]]
[[Category:Technological change]]

{{Sourceattribution|Growth of photovoltaics}}