View source for Unsolved:Potential superpowers

{{short description|Entity speculated to become a superpower}}
{{pp-30-500|small=yes}}
[[File:Potential Superpowers.svg|thumb|300px|
<big>'''Only extant superpower'''</big>
{{legend|#edd400|<big>{{wipe|United States}}</big>}}
<big>'''Emerging superpower'''</big> - supported in varying degrees by academics
{{legend|#cc0000|<big>{{wipe|China}}</big>}}
<big>'''Potential superpowers'''</big> - supported in varying degrees by academics
{{legend|#75507b|<big>{{wipe|Brazil}}</big>}}
{{legend|#3465a4|<big>[[Social:European Union|European Union]]</big>}}
{{legend|#73d216|<big>{{wipe|India}}</big>}}
{{legend|#f57900|<big>{{wipe|Russia}}</big>}}]]

A '''potential superpower''' is a [[Earth:State (polity)|state]] or a political and economic entity that is speculated to be—or to have the potential to soon become—a [[Social:Superpower|superpower]].

Currently, only the {{wipe|United States}} fulfills the criteria to be considered a superpower.<ref>{{cite book|title=From Colony to Superpower: U.S. Foreign Relations since 1776|first=George|last=C. Herring|publisher=Oxford University Press|page=1|year=2008}}</ref> {{wipe|China}} on the other hand, has been referred to as an emerging superpower, given that Beijing's power is now beyond the classification of a Great Power.<ref>{{cite news|author=Jacques Martin|url=https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2006/jun/15/comment.china|work=The Guardian|location=London|title=This is the relationship that will define global politics|date=15 June 2006|accessdate=22 May 2010}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal|author=Emmanuel Solomon John|url=https://www.researchgate.net/publication/333759875_China_Emerging_superpower|title=China: Emerging superpower|date=June 2019}}</ref><ref>{{cite report|author=Anthony H. Cordesman|url=https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/190912_China_Grand_Strategy_Full-Report.pdf|work=CSIS|title=China and the U.S.: Cooperation, Competition and/or Conflict|date=12 September 2019}}</ref>

The [[Social:European Union|European Union]]<ref name="rjguttman">{{cite book|last=Guttman|first=R.J.|date=2001|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=sbi7eVIcyD4C&printsec=frontcover|title=Europe in the New Century|publisher=Lynne Rienner Publishers}}</ref> and the emerging [[Finance:BRIC|BRIC]] economies comprising {{wipe|Brazil}},<ref name="Kwang Ho Chun">{{cite book|author=Kwang Ho Chun|title=The BRICs Superpower Challenge: Foreign and Security Policy Analysis|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=LgDJNAEACAAJ|accessdate=21 September 2015|year=2013|publisher=Ashgate|isbn=978-1-4094-6869-1}}</ref> {{wipe|Russia}},<ref name="Russia in the 21st Century">{{cite book|author=Steven Rosefielde|title=Russia in the 21st Century: The Prodigal Superpower|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=eC6HdSYZhRgC|accessdate=13 September 2015|year=2005|publisher=Cambridge University Press|isbn=978-0-521-83678-4}}</ref> and {{wipe|India}}<ref name="elephantdragon">{{cite book|author=Robyn Meredith|title=The Elephant and the Dragon: The Rise of India and China and What it Means for All of Us|publisher=W.W Norton and Company|year=2007|isbn=978-0-393-33193-6|url=https://archive.org/details/elephantdragonri00mere}}</ref> are most commonly described as being potential superpowers.

Collectively these potential superpowers, and the United States, comprise [[Finance:List of countries by GDP (nominal)|68.0% of global nominal GDP]], 62.4% of global GDP (PPP), more than one third of the total land area and more than [[Earth:List of countries and dependencies by population|50% of the world's population]].<ref>{{cite web|url = http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?pr.x=23&pr.y=9&sy=2014&ey=2014&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&c=512%2C668%2C914%2C672%2C612%2C946%2C614%2C137%2C311%2C962%2C213%2C674%2C911%2C676%2C193%2C548%2C122%2C556%2C912%2C678%2C313%2C181%2C419%2C867%2C513%2C682%2C316%2C684%2C913%2C273%2C124%2C868%2C339%2C921%2C638%2C948%2C514%2C943%2C218%2C686%2C963%2C688%2C616%2C518%2C223%2C728%2C516%2C558%2C918%2C138%2C748%2C196%2C618%2C278%2C624%2C692%2C522%2C694%2C622%2C142%2C156%2C449%2C626%2C564%2C628%2C565%2C228%2C283%2C924%2C853%2C233%2C288%2C632%2C293%2C636%2C566%2C634%2C964%2C238%2C182%2C662%2C453%2C960%2C968%2C423%2C922%2C935%2C714%2C128%2C862%2C611%2C135%2C321%2C716%2C243%2C456%2C248%2C722%2C469%2C942%2C253%2C718%2C642%2C724%2C643%2C576%2C939%2C936%2C644%2C961%2C819%2C813%2C172%2C199%2C132%2C733%2C646%2C184%2C648%2C524%2C915%2C361%2C134%2C362%2C652%2C364%2C174%2C732%2C328%2C366%2C258%2C734%2C656%2C144%2C654%2C146%2C336%2C463%2C263%2C528%2C268%2C923%2C532%2C738%2C944%2C578%2C176%2C537%2C534%2C742%2C536%2C866%2C429%2C369%2C433%2C744%2C178%2C186%2C436%2C925%2C136%2C869%2C343%2C746%2C158%2C926%2C439%2C466%2C916%2C112%2C664%2C111%2C826%2C298%2C542%2C927%2C967%2C846%2C443%2C299%2C917%2C582%2C544%2C474%2C941%2C754%2C446%2C698%2C666&s=NGDPD&grp=0&a=|title=World Economic Outlook Database, April 2015|date=|accessdate=10 June 2015|website=|publisher=|last=|first=}}</ref><ref name="IMF Groups">{{cite web|url=http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?pr.x=58&pr.y=19&sy=2014&ey=2014&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&c=001%2C998&s=NGDPD&grp=1&a=1|title=Report for Selected Country Groups and Subjects|publisher=[[Organization:International Monetary Fund|International Monetary Fund]]|work=[[Finance:World Economic Outlook|World Economic Outlook]]|date=April 2015|accessdate=15 April 2015}}</ref><ref name=imf>{{cite web|url=http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?sy=2014&ey=2014&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=subject&ds=.&br=1&pr1.x=65&pr1.y=8&c=512%2C668%2C914%2C672%2C612%2C946%2C614%2C137%2C311%2C962%2C213%2C674%2C911%2C676%2C193%2C548%2C122%2C556%2C912%2C678%2C313%2C181%2C419%2C867%2C513%2C682%2C316%2C684%2C913%2C273%2C124%2C868%2C339%2C921%2C638%2C948%2C514%2C943%2C218%2C686%2C963%2C688%2C616%2C518%2C223%2C728%2C516%2C558%2C918%2C138%2C748%2C196%2C618%2C278%2C624%2C692%2C522%2C694%2C622%2C142%2C156%2C449%2C626%2C564%2C628%2C565%2C228%2C283%2C924%2C853%2C233%2C288%2C632%2C293%2C636%2C566%2C634%2C964%2C238%2C182%2C662%2C453%2C960%2C968%2C423%2C922%2C935%2C714%2C128%2C862%2C611%2C135%2C321%2C716%2C243%2C456%2C248%2C722%2C469%2C942%2C253%2C718%2C642%2C724%2C643%2C576%2C939%2C936%2C644%2C961%2C819%2C813%2C172%2C199%2C132%2C733%2C646%2C184%2C648%2C524%2C915%2C361%2C134%2C362%2C652%2C364%2C174%2C732%2C328%2C366%2C258%2C734%2C656%2C144%2C654%2C146%2C336%2C463%2C263%2C528%2C268%2C923%2C532%2C738%2C944%2C578%2C176%2C537%2C534%2C742%2C536%2C866%2C429%2C369%2C433%2C744%2C178%2C186%2C436%2C925%2C136%2C869%2C343%2C746%2C158%2C926%2C439%2C466%2C916%2C112%2C664%2C111%2C826%2C298%2C542%2C927%2C967%2C846%2C443%2C299%2C917%2C582%2C544%2C474%2C941%2C754%2C446%2C698%2C666&s=PPPGDP&grp=0&a=|title=Report for Selected Country Groups and Subjects (PPP valuation of country GDP)|publisher=IMF|accessdate=April 8, 2015}}</ref>

== Comparative statistics ==
<center>
{| class="wikitable sortable"
!Country/Union
!Population<ref>[https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2119rank.html Population by country on July 2017 Est.] ''The World Factbook — Central Intelligence Agency'', Retrieved 10 May 2018</ref><ref>[http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/table.do?tab=table&language=en&pcode=tps00001&tableSelection=1&footnotes=yes&labeling=labels&plugin=1 Population in EU (28) on 1 January 2017] ''Eurostat''</ref>
!Area, km2
![[Finance:List of countries by GDP (nominal)|GDP (nominal)]],<br/>mil. $
!GDP (nominal)<br/>per capita, $
!GDP (PPP), bil. $
!GDP (PPP)<br/>per capita, $
!Military Strength,<br/> PIR (lower is stronger)<ref>{{cite news |title=These are the 25 most powerful militaries in the world — and there's a clear winner |url=https://www.businessinsider.com/most-powerful-militaries-in-the-world-ranked-2018-2 |work=Business Insider |date=18 June 2018}}</ref>
!Military expenditures,<br/>$ million<ref>[https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/1_Data%20for%20all%20countries%20from%201988%E2%80%932017%20in%20constant%20%282016%29%20USD.pdf Military expenditure by country — 2017] ''Stockholm International Peace Research Institute''</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/slumbering-tiger-roaring-dragon-how-indias-defence-stacks-up-against-its-biggest-regional-competitor-china/articleshow/52669113.cms|title=Slumbering tiger, roaring dragon: How India's defence stacks up against its biggest regional competitor China|first=Ruchi|last=Bambha|date=July 12, 2018|via=The Economic Times}}</ref>
|----
|{{USA}}
|<center>326,625,791</center>
|<center>9,525,067</center>
|<center>20,494,050</center>
|<center>59,792</center>
|<center>20,494</center>
|<center>59,495</center>
|<center>0.0857</center>
|<center>597,178</center>
|----
|{{flag|European Union}}
|<center>511,522,671</center>
|<center>4,475,757</center>
|<center>18,750,052</center>
|<center>33,715</center>
|<center>22,023</center>
|<center>41,091</center>
|<center>–</center>
|<center>253,776*</center>
|----
|{{CHN}}
|<center>1,379,302,771</center>
|<center>9,596,961</center>
|<center>13,407,398</center>
|<center>8,710</center>
|<center>25,270</center>
|<center>16,624</center>
|<center>0.0945</center>
|<center>228,173</center>
|----
|{{RUS}}
|<center>142,257,519</center>
|<center>17,125,191</center>
|<center>1,630,659</center>
|<center>10,955</center>
|<center>4,213</center>
|<center>27,890</center>
|<center>0.0929</center>
|<center>55,327</center>
|----
|{{IND}}
|<center>1,281,935,911</center>
|<center>3,287,263</center>
|<center>2,716,746</center>
|<center>1,983</center>
|<center>10,505</center>
|<center>7,174</center>
|<center>0.1593</center>
|<center>59,757</center>
|----
|}</center>
''* Note:'' The European Union does not have its own armed forces. The table shows the total military expenditures of all 28 EU member states.

== Brazil ==
{|style="width:auto; toc:25em; font-size:85%; text-align:left;" class="infobox"
|-
!colspan="4"  style="text-align:center; background:#ccf;"|'''{{wipe|Brazil}}'''
|-
|colspan="4" style="text-align:center;"|[[File:Flag of Brazil.svg|center|border|180px]]
|-
|colspan="4" style="text-align:center;"|[[File:Brazil (orthographic projection).svg|center|180px]]
|}
The {{wipe|Brazil}} has seen limited discussion among authorities regarding its potential as a superpower.

Writing for ''The Diplomatic Courier'', former British Ambassador to Brazil, Peter Collecott, identifies that Brazil's recognition as a potential superpower largely stems from its own national identity and ambition. Collecott points out that for the past two hundred years Brazil has sought to emerge as a serious global economic and political power, a position "that [Brazil] instinctively feels is her due."<ref name="Collecott">{{cite web|author=Peter Collecott|url=http://www.diplomaticourier.com/2011/10/29/brazil-s-quest-for-superpower-status/|title=Brazil's Quest for Superpower Status|publisher=The Diplomatic Courier|date=29 October 2011|accessdate=10 August 2014}}</ref> However, Collecott also argues that while Brazil has certainly fulfilled some of its aspirations and finally started to gain the international recognition it deserves, it perhaps won't quite emerge as a superpower; instead, its current position as an emerging power will allow Brazil to shape the future with more realistic aspirations.<ref name="Collecott"/>

In his 2014 publication, ''The BRICs Superpower Challenge: Foreign and Security Policy Analysis'', professor Kwang Ho Chun carefully assesses the likelihood of the BRICs countries attaining the status of superpowers.<ref name="Kwang Ho Chun"/> Regarding Brazil, Kwang Ho Chun highlights that the country possesses enormous and almost untouched "strategic" natural resources, including valuable [[Earth:Mineral|mineral]]s, a tenth of the world's [[Earth:Fresh water|fresh water]] and Earth's largest remaining [[Earth:Rainforest|rainforest]]. Because of this, Kwang Ho Chun feels it is likely that Brazil could gain a dominant role in international relations, especially when it comes to environmental issues.<ref name="Kwang Ho Chun"/> This [[Social:Soft power|soft power]] influence is further enhanced by Brazil's policy makers seeking to engage in as many international organizations as possible and forming alliances, most notably on social, diplomatic and economic issues.<ref name="Kwang Ho Chun"/> Despite its economic potential and Brazil's "self-image as a country with a great destiny," Kwang Ho Chun believes that the country "falls far short of the levels required for a superpower."<ref name="Kwang Ho Chun"/> Supporting his belief, he emphasizes Brazil's apparent lack of "traditional [[Social:Hard power|hard power]]" (i.e. military power and global security influence) as a major obstacle. Kwang Ho Chun writes that Brazil has "little incentive to invest in its military" as "the country developed in an environment with hardly any inter-state security threats", therefore Brazil "may never be in a position to accumulate enough influence on global security matters to meet the criteria of being a superpower."<ref name="Kwang Ho Chun"/> Instead, Ho Chun feels that Brazil will emerge as a [[Social:Great power|great power]] with an important position in some spheres of influence but limited in others such as international security.<ref name="Kwang Ho Chun"/>

== China ==

{| style="width:auto; toc:25em; font-size:85%; text-align:left;" class="infobox"
|-
!colspan="4"  style="text-align:center; background:#ccf;"|'''{{wipe|China}}'''
|-
|colspan="4" style="text-align:center;"|[[File:Flag of the People's Republic of China.svg|center|border|180px]]
|-
|colspan="4" style="text-align:center;"|[[File:People's Republic of China (orthographic projection).svg|center|180px]]
|}

The {{wipe|China}} receives continual coverage in the popular press of its emerging superpower status,<ref>{{cite web |url = http://edition.cnn.com/SPECIALS/1999/china.50/asian.superpower/ |title = Visions of China - Asian Superpower |website = CNN |year = 1999 |accessdate=19 July 2014 }}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url = https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/01/china-military-presence-superpower-collision-japan |title = China's military presence is growing. Does a superpower collision loom? |website = The Guardian |date=1 January 2014 |accessdate=19 July 2014 }}</ref> and has been identified as a rising or emerging economic growth and military superpower by academics and other experts. In fact, the "rise of China" has been named the top news story of the 21st century by the Global Language Monitor, as measured by number of appearances in the global print and electronic media, on the Internet and blogosphere, and in social media.<ref>{{cite web |url = http://www.ycwb.com/ePaper/xkb/html/2011-05/07/content_1105830.htm |script-title = zh:21世纪新闻排行中国崛起居首位 |trans-title = The rise of China ranked first place in 21st century news |language = zh-Hans-CN |website = Ycwb.com |date = 7 May 2011 |accessdate = 10 February 2012 |url-status=dead |archiveurl = https://web.archive.org/web/20110927095901/http://www.ycwb.com/ePaper/xkb/html/2011-05/07/content_1105830.htm |archivedate = 27 September 2011 }}</ref><ref>{{cite web |first = Chito | last=Romana |url = http://abcnews.go.com/International/china-replace-us-top-superpower/story?id=9986355 |title = Does China Want to Be Top Superpower? |website = Abcnews.go.com |date = 2 March 2010 |accessdate = 10 February 2012}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url = http://carnegieendowment.org/2006/02/09/from-rural-transformation-to-global-integration-environmental-and-social-impacts-of-china-s-rise-to-superpower/dfi |title = From Rural Transformation to Global Integration: The Environmental and Social Impacts of China's Rise to Superpower - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace |date=9 February 2006 |accessdate = 10 February 2012 }}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url = http://www.getabstract.com/en/summary/global-business/china-the-balance-sheet/6584/?isbn= |title = China: The Balance Sheet Summary |website = getabstract.com |year = 2006 |accessdate = 19 July 2014 }}</ref><ref>{{cite web |first = Merri B. |last=Uckert |url = http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/awc/uckertmb.pdf |title = China As An Economic and Military Superpower: A Dangerous Combination? |format=PDF |date=April 1995 |accessdate=10 February 2012 }}</ref> The term "[[Social:Second Superpower|Second Superpower]]" has been applied by scholars to the possibility that the People's Republic of China could emerge with [[Social:Power (international relations)|global power]] and influence on par with the United States.<ref>{{cite book |title=History of International Broadcasting |first=James|last=Wood |page=155 |publisher=IET |year=2000 }}</ref> The potential for the two countries to form stronger relations to address global issues is sometimes referred to as the Group of Two.

Barry Buzan asserted in 2004 that "China certainly presents the most promising all-round profile" of a potential superpower.<ref name="The United States and the Great Powers">{{cite book|last=Buzan|first=Barry|title=The United States and the Great Powers|publisher=Polity Press|year=2004|location=Cambridge, United Kingdom|page=70|isbn=0-7456-3375-7}}</ref> Buzan claimed that "China is currently the most fashionable potential superpower and the one whose degree of alienation from the dominant international society makes it the most obvious political challenger." However, he noted this challenge is constrained by the major challenges of development and by the fact that its rise could trigger a counter coalition of states in [[Earth:Asia|Asia]].{{citation needed|date=June 2015}}

Parag Khanna stated in 2008 that by making massive trade and investment deals with Latin America and Africa, China had established its presence as a superpower along with the [[Social:European Union|European Union]] and the {{wipe|United States}}. China's rise is demonstrated by its ballooning share of trade in its [[Finance:Gross domestic product|gross domestic product]]. He believed that China's "consultative style" had allowed it to develop political and economic ties with many countries including those viewed as [[Social:Rogue state|rogue state]]s by the United States. He stated that the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation founded with Russia and the Central Asian countries may eventually be the "NATO of the East".<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/27/magazine/27world-t.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0|newspaper={{wipe|The New York Times}}|last=Khanna|first=Parag|title=Waving Goodbye to Hegemony|accessdate=July 19, 2014}}</ref>

Economist and author of ''Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance'' Arvind Subramanian argued in 2012 that China will direct the world's financial system by 2020 and that the Chinese [[Finance:Renminbi|renminbi]] will replace the {{wipe|United States dollar}} as the world's [[Finance:Reserve currency|reserve currency]] in 10 to 15 years. The United States' [[Social:Soft power|soft power]] will remain longer. He stated that "China was a top dog economically for thousands of years prior to the Ming dynasty. In some ways, the past few hundred years have been an aberration."<ref>{{cite web|author=Ted Greenwald |url=https://www.wired.com/2012/02/st_subramanianqa/ |title=Taming the Dragon: One Scholar's Plan to Soften Chinese Dominance |publisher=WIRED |date=February 28, 2012|accessdate=June 28, 2014}}</ref>

Lawrence Saez at the School of Oriental and African Studies, London, argued in 2011 that the United States will be surpassed by China as military superpower within twenty years. Regarding economic power, the Director of the China Center for Economic Reform at Peking University Yao Yang stated that "Assuming that the Chinese and U.S. economies grow, respectively, by 8% and 3% in real terms, that China's inflation rate is 3.6% and America's is 2% (the averages of the last decade), and that the renminbi appreciates against the dollar by 3% per year (the average of the last six years), China will become the world's largest economy by 2021. By that time, both countries' GDP will be about $24 trillion."<ref>{{cite web|author=Thair Shaikh |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20120311061413/http://articles.cnn.com/2011-06-10/world/china.military.superpower_1_superpower-military-spending-military-dominance/2?_s=PM%3AWORLD |url=http://articles.cnn.com/2011-06-10/world/china.military.superpower_1_superpower-military-spending-military-dominance/2?_s=PM:WORLD |title=When Will China Become a Global Superpower? |publisher=CNN |date=10 June 2011 |archivedate=11 March 2012 |accessdate=28 June 2014 |url-status=dead |df= }}</ref>

Historian Timothy Garton Ash argued in 2011, pointing to factors such as the [[Organization:International Monetary Fund|International Monetary Fund]] predicting that China's GDP ([[Finance:Purchasing power parity|purchasing power parity]] adjusted) will overtake that of the United States in 2016, that a power shift to a world with several superpowers was happening "Now". However, China was still lacking in soft power and power projection abilities and had a low [[Finance:Per capita income|GDP/person]]. The article also stated that the Pew Research Center in a 2009 survey found that people in 15 out of 22 countries believed that China had or would overtake the US as the world's leading superpower.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://english.caixin.com/2012-02-27/100360946.html|publisher=Caixin|title=Oxford Prof on China and the New World OrderPart 1|date=27 February 2012|accessdate=19 July 2014}}</ref>

In an interview given in 2011, Singapore's first premier, Lee Kuan Yew, stated that while China supplanting the United States is not a foregone conclusion, Chinese leaders are nonetheless serious about displacing the United States as the most powerful country in Asia. "They have transformed a poor society by an economic miracle to become now the second-largest economy in the world. How could they not aspire to be number 1 in Asia, and in time the world?"<ref name="LeeAllison2013">{{cite book|author1=Kuan Yew Lee|author2=Graham Allison|author3=Robert D. Blackwill|author4=Ali Wyne|title=Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master's Insights on China, the United States, and the World|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=geiCymK1IWIC&pg=PA2|accessdate=11 December 2015|date=1 February 2013|publisher=MIT Press|isbn=978-0-262-01912-5|page=2|chapter=Future of China}}</ref> The Chinese strategy, Lee maintains, will revolve around their "huge and increasingly highly skilled and educated workers to out-sell and out-build all others."<ref name="Allison 2012 4">{{cite book| last=Allison| first=Graham and Robert D. Blackwill, with Ali Wyne| title=Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master's Insights on China, the United States, and the World| year=2012| publisher=The MIT Press| location=Cambridge Massachusetts| isbn=978-0-262-01912-5| page=4| url=https://books.google.com/books/about/Lee_Kuan_Yew.html?id=geiCymK1IWIC}}</ref> Nevertheless, relations with the United States, at least in the medium term, will not take a turn for the worse because China will "avoid any action that will sour up relations with the U.S. To challenge a stronger and technologically superior power like the U.S. will abort their 'peaceful rise.'"<ref name="Allison 2012 4"/> Though Lee believes China is genuinely interested in growing within the global framework the United States has created, it is biding its time until it becomes strong enough to successfully redefine the prevailing political and economic order.<ref>{{cite book|last=Allison|first=Graham and Robert D. Blackwill, with Ali Wyne|title=Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master's Insights on China, the United States, and the World|year=2012|publisher=The MIT Press|location=Cambridge Massachusetts|isbn=978-0-262-01912-5|page=12|url=https://books.google.com/books/about/Lee_Kuan_Yew.html?id=geiCymK1IWIC}}</ref>

Chinese foreign policy adviser Wang Jisi in 2012 stated that many Chinese officials see China as a first-class power which should be treated as such. China is argued to soon become the world's largest economy and to be making rapid progress in many areas. The United States is seen as a declining superpower as indicated by factors such as poor economic recovery, financial disorder, high deficits gaining close to GDP levels and unemployment, increasing political polarization, and overregulation forcing jobs overseas in China.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.epi.org/publication/counting_the_jobs_lost_to_china/|title=Counting the jobs lost to China|work=Economic Policy Institute|date=31 March 2010|accessdate=8 July 2014}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|author1=Kenneth Lieberthal|author2=Wang Jisi|url=http://www.voanews.com/content/us-china-experts-warn-of-growing-bilateral-distrust-145900615/179594.html|publisher=Voice of America|title=US, China Experts Warn of Growing Bilateral Distrust|date=2 April 2012|accessdate=19 July 2014}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|format=PDF|url=http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2012/3/30-us-china-lieberthal/0330_china_lieberthal.pdf|publisher=China Center at Brookings|title=Addressing U.S.-China Strategic Distrust|date=March 2012|accessdate=19 July 2014}}</ref>

In recent times, consensus has concluded that China has reached the qualifications of superpower status, citing China's growing political clout and leadership in the economic sectors has given the country renewed standings in the International Community. Although China's military projection is still premature and untested, the perceived humiliation of US leadership in failing to prevent its closest allies in joining the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank,<ref name="Foreign Policy-April-1-2015">{{cite magazine|author=Allen-Ebrahimian, Bethany |title=‘Obama Is Sitting Alone at a Bar Drinking a Consolation Beer’|url=https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/04/01/obama-china-bank-aiib-policy/|magazine=Foreign Policy|date=April 1, 2015}}</ref> along with the [[Organization:Belt and Road Initiative|Belt and Road Initiative]] and China's role in the worldwide groundings of the Boeing 737 MAX,<ref name="Boeing’s Crisis Strengthens Beijing’s Hand-March-20-2019">{{cite magazine|author=Aboulafia, Richard |title=Boeing’s Crisis Strengthens Beijing’s Hand|url=https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/03/20/boeings-crisis-strengthens-beijings-hand-737max-faa-caac-aviation-regulators-trade-war-china-xi-trump/|magazine=Foreign Policy|date=March 20, 2019}}</ref> was seen as a [[Philosophy:Paradigm shift|paradigm shift]] or an [[Inflection point|inflection point]] to the unipolar world order that dominated post-Cold War international relations. University Professor Øystein Tunsjø argues that competition between China and the USA will increase, leading to the gap between them decreasing, while the gap between the two countries and the rest of the top ten largest economies will widen.<ref name="Columbia University Press-February-2018">{{Cite book|author=Tunsjø, Øystein |title=The Return of Bipolarity in World Politics: China, the United States, and Geostructural Realism|url=https://cup.columbia.edu/book/the-return-of-bipolarity-in-world-politics/9780231176545|publisher=Columbia University Press|date=February 27, 2018}}</ref> Additionally, economics correspondent, Peter S. Goodman and Beijing Bureau Chief of China, Jane Perlez further stated that China is using a combination of its economic might and growing military advancements to pressure, coerce and change the current world order to accommodate China's interests at the expense of the United States and its allies.<ref name="The New York Times-November-25-2018">{{cite news|author1=Goodman, Peter |author2=Perlez, Jane |title=Beijing is leveraging its commercial and military might to redraw the terms of trade, diplomacy and security, challenging the liberal democratic order.|url=https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/25/world/asia/china-world-power.html?mtrref=www.google.com&gwh=9DD0254E4F46A3D7C0FD201DDFA1E152&gwt=pay|newspaper={{wipe|The New York Times}}|date=November 25, 2018}}</ref>

The 2019 Chinese Defense White Paper highlights growing strategic competition between China and the United States although it stops short of the military and ideological confrontation that was shown during the [[History:Cold War|Cold War]]. Rather, according to Anthony H. Cordesman, although the paper flags both China and the US as competing superpowers, it was far more moderate in its treatment of the US in contrast to the United States view on Chinese military developments. Cordesman states that the paper in the end, was a warning that will shape Sino-American relations as China becomes stronger than Russia in virtually every respect other than its nuclear arsenal.<ref name="China’s New 2019 Defense White Paper: An Open Strategic Challenge to the United States, But One Which Does Not Have to Lead to Conflict-July-24-2019">{{cite journal|author=Cordesman, Anthony H. |title=China’s New 2019 Defense White Paper: An Open Strategic Challenge to the United States, But One Which Does Not Have to Lead to Conflict|url=https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-new-2019-defense-white-paper-open-strategic-challenge-united-states-one-which-does|journal=Center for Strategic and International Studies|date=July 24, 2019}}</ref>

On August 19, 2019, the United States Studies Centre handed out a report, suggesting that Washington no longer enjoys primacy in the Indo-Pacific. It stress that the War on Terror has greatly distracted US response to China's role in the Pacific; that US military force in the region has greatly atrophied whereas Beijing only grew stronger and more capable since 9/11, to the point that China could now actively challenge the United States over the Indo-Pacific.<ref>{{cite report|author=Ashley Townshend, Brendan Thomas-Noone, Matilda Steward|url=https://www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/averting-crisis-american-strategy-military-spending-and-collective-defence-in-the-indo-pacific|work=United States Studies Centre|title=Averting Crisis: American strategy, military spending and collective defence in the Indo-Pacific|date= 19 August 2019}}</ref>

=== Contrary views ===
Timothy Beardson, founder of Crosby International Holdings, stated in 2013 that he doesn't see "China becoming a superpower". He writes that China has basically worked as a manufacturing location for foreign companies, as 83% of all high-tech products made in China were produced for foreign companies.<ref name="articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com">{{cite news| url=http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-06-28/news/40234296_1_challenges-facing-china-foreign-companies-china-20-years | work=The Times Of India | title=I don't see China becoming a superpower in this century|last=Beardson|first=Timothy| date=June 28, 2013}}</ref> He added that China has problems regarding wages, an aging and declining population, and gender imbalance (with China's 6:5 gender ratio, 1 in 6 males will be unable to find a female partner), and he suggested that such problems would lead to crime. He also pointed out that China continually polluted its environment during its 30 years of economic growth.<ref name="articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com"/><ref>{{cite news|author=Timothy Beardson|url=http://www.huffingtonpost.com/timothy-beardson/china-pollution_b_3331929.html|title=Action Needed on the Environment|work=Huffington Post|date=24 May 2013|accessdate=26 July 2014}}</ref>

Geoffrey Murray's ''China: The Next Superpower'' (1998) argued that while the potential for China is high, this is fairly perceived only by looking at the risks and obstacles China faces in managing its population and resources. The political situation in China may become too fragile to survive into superpower status, according to Susan Shirk in ''China: Fragile Superpower'' (2008). Other factors that could constrain China's ability to become a superpower in the future include limited supplies of energy and raw materials, questions over its innovation capability, inequality and corruption, and risks to social stability and the environment.<ref>{{cite book|author=Susan Shirk|date=2008|title=China: Fragile Superpower|publisher=Oxford University Press|isbn=978-0-19-537319-6}}</ref>

Minxin Pei argued in 2010 that China is not a superpower and it will not be one anytime soon and argued that China faces daunting political and economic challenges.<ref>{{cite magazine|author=Minxin Pei|url=http://apac2020.thediplomat.com/feature/china%E2%80%99s-not-a-superpower/|title=China's Not a Superpower|magazine=The Diplomat|date=20 January 2010|accessdate=10 February 2012}}</ref> In 2012 he argued that China, despite using its economic power to influence some nations, has few real friends or allies and is surrounded by potentially hostile nations. This situation could improve if regional territorial disputes were resolved and China participated in an effective regional defense system that would reduce the fears of its neighbors. Alternatively, a democratization of China would dramatically improve foreign relations with many nations.<ref>{{cite magazine|author=Minxin Pei|url=https://foreignpolicy.com/2012/03/20/the-loneliest-superpower/|title=The Loneliest Superpower|magazine=Foreign Policy|date=20 March 2012|accessdate=28 June 2014}}</ref>

Amy Chua stated in 2007 that whether a country is attractive to immigrants is an important quality for a superpower. She also wrote that China lacks the pull to bring scientists, thinkers, and innovators from other countries as immigrants.<ref name="Chua, A 2007">{{cite book|author=Amy Chua|year=2007|title=Day of Empire: How Hyperpowers Rise to Global Dominance – and Why They Fall|publisher=Random House|isbn=978-0-385-51284-8|url=https://archive.org/details/dayofempirehowhy00chua_0}}</ref>

== European Union ==
{{main|Unsolved:European Union as an emerging superpower}}
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The [[Social:European Union|European Union]] (EU) has been called an emerging superpower by academics.<ref name="rjguttman"/><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.wilsoncenter.org/index.cfm?event_id=113994&fuseaction=events.event_summary|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20060808165746/http://www.wilsoncenter.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=events.event_summary&event_id=113994|archivedate=8 August 2006|publisher=Wilson Center|title=The EU Future: Global Power or European Governance|accessdate=28 July 2014}}</ref> Many scholars and academics like T. R. Reid,<ref>Reid, T. R. (2004) The United States of Europe 305p, ''Penguin Books'' {{ISBN|1-59420-033-5}}</ref> Andrew Reding,<ref name="A. R.">{{cite news|author=Andrew Reding|url=http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2002-01-06/news/0201060227_1_european-union-bering-sea-common-currency|title=EU in position to be world's next superpower|newspaper=Chicago Tribune|date=January 6, 2002|accessdate=7 July 2014}}</ref> Andrew Moravcsik,<ref>{{cite web|author=Andrew Moravcsik|title=The Quiet Superpower|url=http://www.princeton.edu/~amoravcs/library/quiet.pdf|format=PDF|publisher=Princeton University Press|date=17 June 2002|accessdate=26 July 2014}}</ref> Mark Leonard,<ref>{{cite book|author=Mark Leonard|title=Why Europe Will Run the 21st Century|publisher=Perseus Books Group|isbn=1-58648-424-9}}</ref> Jeremy Rifkin,<ref>{{cite book|author=Jeremy Rifkin|year=2004|title=The European Dream|isbn=1-58542-345-9}}</ref> John McCormick,<ref>{{cite news|author=Richard A. Clarke|title=The European Superpower|date=2006|publisher=Palgrave Macmillan}}</ref> and some politicians like Romano Prodi<ref>{{cite magazine|author=Jonathan Rauch|url=https://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200502u/nj_rauch_2005-02-01|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20080828194231/http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200502u/nj_rauch_2005-02-01|archivedate=28 August 2008|title=Europe Is the Next Rival Superpower. But Then, So Was Japan.|magazine=The Atlantic|date=1 February 2005|accessdate=26 July 2014}}</ref> and Tony Blair,<ref>{{cite news|author=Benedict Brogan|url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/poland/1369282/Blair-wants-EU-to-become-superpower.html|title=Blair wants EU to become superpower|date=7 October 2000|accessdate=27 March 2014|location=London|work=The Daily Telegraph}}</ref> believed that the EU either is, or will become, a superpower in the 21st century. These prognoses, however, all predate the euro crisis and Brexit. See; [[History:Political midlife crisis|Political midlife crisis]].

Mark Leonard cites several factors: the EU's large population, large economy, low inflation rates, the unpopularity and perceived failure of US foreign policy in recent years,{{when|date=January 2019}} and certain EU member states' high quality of life (especially when measured in terms such as hours worked per week, health care, social services).<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.cer.org.uk/in-the-press/europe-new-superpower|title=Europe: the new superpower|publisher=CER|date=18 February 2005|accessdate=28 May 2014}}</ref>

John McCormick believes that the EU has already achieved superpower status, based on the size and global reach of its economy and on its global political influence. He argues that the nature of power has changed since the [[History:Cold War|Cold War]]-driven definition of superpower was developed, and that military power is no longer essential to great power; he argues that control of the means of production is more important than control of the means of destruction, and contrasts the threatening [[Social:Hard power|hard power]] of the United States with the opportunities offered by the [[Social:Soft power|soft power]] wielded by the European Union.<ref name="The European Superpower">{{cite book|author=John McCormick|title=The European Superpower|isbn=978-1-4039-9846-0|date=14 November 2006}}</ref>

Parag Khanna believes that "Europe is overtaking its rivals to become the world's most successful empire."<ref name="empirestrikesback">{{cite web|author=Parag Khanna|url=http://paragkhanna.com/the-empire-strikes-back/|title=The Empire Strikes Back|publisher=ParagKhanna.com|date=18 February 2008|accessdate=14 March 2014}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|author=Parag Khanna|url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/feb/02/eu.politics|title=US scholar Parag Khanna on the rise of the new Rome – Europe|newspaper=The Guardian|date=2 February 2008|accessdate=14 March 2014}}</ref> Khanna writes that [[Earth:South America|South America]], [[Place:East Asia|East Asia]], and other regions prefer to emulate "The European Dream" rather than the [[Philosophy:American Dream|American variant]].<ref name="empirestrikesback" /> This could possibly be seen in the African Union and [[Organization:Union of South American Nations|UNASUR]]. Notably, the EU as a whole has some of the world's largest and most influential languages being official within its borders.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.nocturne.ca/nn-worldlanguages.htm|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20100302063751/http://www.nocturne.ca/nn-worldlanguages.htm|archivedate=2 March 2010|title=Languages of the world|work=Nocturne|accessdate=26 July 2014}}</ref>

Andrew Reding also takes the future EU enlargement into account. An eventual future accession of the rest of [[Earth:Europe|Europe]], the whole of {{wipe|Russia}}, and [[Place:Turkey|Turkey]], would not only boost its economy, but it would also increase the EU's population to about 800 million, which he considers almost equal to that of {{wipe|India}} or {{wipe|China}}. The EU is qualitatively different from India and China since it is enormously more prosperous and technologically advanced.<ref name="A. R." /> Turkish PM [[Biography:Recep Tayyip Erdoğan|Recep Tayyip Erdoğan]] said in 2005: "In 10 or 15 years, the EU will be a place where civilizations meet. It will be a superpower with the inclusion of Turkey."<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.turkishweekly.net/2005/06/04/news/-eu-will-be-super-power-with-turkey/|publisher=Turkish Weekly|title='EU will be Super Power with Turkey'|date=4 June 2005|accessdate=10 February 2012}}</ref>

Robert J. Guttman wrote in 2001 that the very definition of the term superpower has changed, and in the 21st century it does not only refer to states with military power, but also to groups such as the European Union, with strong market economics, young, highly educated workers savvy in high technology, and a global vision.<ref>{{cite book|url=https://books.google.com/books?id=sbi7eVIcyD4C&dq=Europe+emerging+superpower&printsec=frontcover&source=bl&ots=QxLIyJCn7Q&sig=MVdQdAbG6-3ee0A5-UjCEbNNpEE&hl=sv&ei=wBgUSuf7CJmv-AbooqioDw&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=3#PPP1,M1|title=Europe in the New Century: Visions of an Emerging Superpower|publisher=Lynne Rienner Publishers|year=2001|accessdate=10 February 2012}}</ref> Friis Arne Petersen, the {{wipe|Denmark}} ambassador to the US, has expressed similar views but has conceded that the EU is a "special kind of superpower", one that has yet to establish a unified military force that exerts itself even close to the same level as many of its individual members.<ref>{{cite web|author=Trevor Williams|url=http://www.globalatlanta.com/danish-envoy-economic-strength-makes-eu-a-rising-superpower/|title=Danish Envoy: Economic Strength Makes EU a 'Rising Superpower'|work=Globalatlanta|date=29 October 2008|accessdate=19 July 2014}}</ref>

Additionally, it is argued by commentators that full political integration is not required for the European Union to wield international influence: that its apparent weaknesses constitute its real strengths (as of its low-profile diplomacy and the emphasis on the rule of law)<ref name="The European Superpower"/> and that the EU represents a new and potentially more successful type of international actor than traditional ones;<ref>{{cite web|format=PDF|author=Adrian Hyde-Price|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20090326212441/http://www.arena.uio.no/cidel/WorkshopOsloSecurity/Hyde-Price.pdf|archivedate=26 March 2009|date=23 October 2004|url=http://www.arena.uio.no/cidel/WorkshopOsloSecurity/Hyde-Price.pdf|title=The EU, Power and Coercion: From 'Civilian' to 'Civilising' Power|publisher=ARENA Centre for European Studies}}</ref> however, it is uncertain if the effectiveness of such an influence would be equal to that of a more politically integrated union of states such as the United States.<ref>{{cite magazine|url=http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2005/02/10/europe-vs-america/|title=Europe vs. America by Tony Judt|magazine=The New York Review of Books|date=10 February 2005|accessdate=10 February 2012}}</ref>

Barry Buzan notes that the EU's potential superpower status depends on its "stateness". It is unclear though how much state-like quality is needed for the EU to be described as a superpower. Buzan states that the EU is unlikely to remain a potential superpower for a long time because although it has material wealth, its "political weakness and its erratic and difficult course of internal political development, particularly as regards a common foreign and defence policy" constrains it from being a superpower.<ref name="The United States and the Great Powers" />

Alexander Stubb, the {{wipe|Finland}} foreign minister, has said that he thinks the EU is both a superpower and not a superpower. While the EU is a superpower in the sense that it is the largest [[Social:Political union|political union]], [[Finance:Single market|single market]] and aid donor in the world, it is not a superpower in the defense or foreign policy spheres. Like Barry Buzan, Alexander Stubb thinks that the major factor constraining the EU's rise to superpower status is its lack of statehood in the international system; other factors are its lack of internal drive to project power worldwide, and continued preference for the sovereign nation-state among some Europeans. To counterbalance these, he urged the EU leaders to approve and ratify the Lisbon Treaty (which they did in 2009), create an EU foreign ministry (EEAS, established in 2010), develop a common EU defense, hold one collective seat at the United Nations Security Council and G8, and address what he described as the "sour mood" toward the EU prevalent in some European countries today.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://carnegieendowment.org/files/0717carnegie-stubb.pdf|publisher=Carnegie Endowment|title=Will the EU Ever Become a Superpower?|format=PDF|date=17 July 2008|accessdate=10 February 2012}}</ref>

=== Contrary views ===
Some commentators do not believe that the EU will achieve superpower status. "The EU is not and never will be a superpower", according to the former UK Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs David Miliband.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.gees.org/documentos/Documen-02639.pdf|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20110726024647/http://www.gees.org/documentos/Documen-02639.pdf|archivedate=2011-07-26|title=(FCO) Europe 2030: Model power not Superpower – Bruges Speech by the Rt Hon David Miliband MP Foreign Secretary|format=PDF|date=15 November 2007|accessdate=10 February 2012}}</ref> Lacking a unified foreign policy and with an inability to project military power worldwide, the EU lacks "the substance of superpowers", who by definition have "first of all military reach [and] possess the capacity to arrive quickly anywhere with troops that can impose their government's will."<ref>{{cite news|author=Amotz Asa-El|url=http://fr.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull&cid=1226404727902|archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20081117034827/http://fr.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1226404727902&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull|archivedate=17 November 2008|title=Middle Israel: Barack Obama and the decline of America|newspaper=Jerusalem Post|date=13 November 2008|accessdate=10 February 2012}}</ref> EU parliamentarian Ilka Schroeder argues that the high degree of involvement in conflicts such as the [[Religion:Israeli–Palestinian conflict|Israeli–Palestinian conflict]] is used by the EU largely to compensate for European inability to project military power internationally, particularly in contrast to the US.<ref>{{cite web|author=Julie Stahl|url=http://www.crosswalk.com/1238927/|title=Europe Wants to Rival US as Military Superpower, Says EU Parliamentarian|publisher=Crosswalk.com|date=2 January 2004|accessdate=10 February 2012}}</ref>

''[[Finance:The Economist|The Economist]]'''s Robert Lane Greene notes that the lack of a strong European military only exacerbates the lack of unified EU foreign policy and discounts any EU arguments towards superpower status, noting especially that the EU's creation of a global response force rivaling the superpower's (United States) is "unthinkable".<ref>{{cite web|author=Robert Lane Greene|url=https://www.globalpolicy.org/component/content/article/173-sovereign/30500.html|title=EU Constitution: A 'Superpower Europe' It Won't Be|publisher=Globalpolicy.org|date=18 July 2003|accessdate=10 February 2012}}</ref> Similarly, Colin S. Gray finds that “EU-Europe remains a political pygmy and all but military zero in any collective sense.”<ref>Colin S. Gray, "Document No. 1: The Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), 2006, and the Perils of the Twenty-First Century," ''Comparative Strategy'', 25/2, (2006): p 143.</ref>

Britain's Michael Howard has warned against the "worry" that many Europeans are pushing for greater EU integration to counterbalance the United States,<ref>{{cite news|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/4020973.stm|work=BBC News|title=Howard warning on EU 'superpower'|date=17 November 2004|accessdate=22 May 2010}}</ref> while Europe's total reliance on soft (non-military) power is in part because of its lack of a "shared identity."<ref>{{cite web|author=Iskra Kirova|url=http://uscpublicdiplomacy.org/pdin_monitor_article/the_european_union_a_quiet_superpower_or_a_relic_of_the_past|title=The European Union, a "Quiet Superpower" or a Relic of the Past|publisher=USC Center on Public Diplomacy|date=25 March 2007|accessdate=28 May 2014}}</ref> While to some the European Union should be a "model power" unafraid of using military force and backing free trade, its military shortcomings argue against superpower status.<ref>{{cite news|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/7097162.stm|title=Miliband EU speech in full|work=BBC News|date=15 November 2007|accessdate=28 June 2014}}</ref>

According to Zbigniew Brzezinski, the European Union did not produce a real "union" but a "misnomer." It failed to use the years of “Europe whole and free” to make Europe truly whole and its freedom firmly secure. The notion of Europe as “a political and military heavyweight" became "increasingly illusory.” Europe, once the center of the West, became an extension of a West whose defining player is America.<ref>Zbigniew Brzezinski, ''Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power'', (New York: Basic Books, 2012), p 22, 126.</ref>

George Osborne, former British Chancellor of the Exchequer, has also pointed out the economic crisis of the European Union. Osborne said, "The biggest economic risk facing Europe doesn't come from those who want reform and re-negotiation. It comes from a failure to reform and renegotiate. It is the status quo which condemns the people of Europe to an ongoing economic crisis and continuing decline." Osborne also said that the EU is facing growing competition with global economic powers like China, India and the US, and the European Union should "reform or decline."<ref>{{cite news|author=James Kirkup|url=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10572725/George-Osborne-lectures-the-EU-on-reform.html|title=George Osborne lectures the EU on reform|newspaper=Telegraph|date=14 Jan 2014|accessdate=17 March 2014|location=London}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/EU-falling-behind-India-China-British-finance-minister/articleshow/28839348.cms|title=EU falling behind India, China: British finance minister|newspaper=The Times of India|date=15 January 2014|accessdate=17 March 2014}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|author=Andrew Osborn|url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-osborne-idUSBREA0F05020140116#lYdgZKhqtUbbQehB.97|title=Reform or lose us as member, Britain's finance minister tells EU|work=Reuters|date=15 January 2014|accessdate=17 March 2014}}</ref>

In 2016, the United Kingdom, the EU's fourth largest financial contributor after Germany, France and Italy,<ref>http://ec.europa.eu/budget/library/biblio/documents/2014/Internet%20tables%202000-2014.xls</ref> voted to leave the European Union. This represented the first time a member state would be leaving the organisation and its antecedent institutions since the European Economic Community was established in 1957.

== India  ==
{{main|Unsolved:India as an emerging superpower}}
{|style="width:auto; toc:25em; font-size:85%; text-align:left;" class="infobox"
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!colspan="4"  style="text-align:center; background:#ccf;"|'''{{wipe|India}}'''
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|colspan="4" style="text-align:center;"|[[File:Flag of India.svg|center|border|180px]]
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|colspan="4" style="text-align:center;"|[[File:India (orthographic projection).svg|center|180px]]
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The {{wipe|India}} has seen considerable coverage of its potential of becoming a superpower, both in the media and among academics.<ref name="rising"/><ref>{{cite web| title=India welcomed as new sort of superpower| publisher=Highbeam| url=https://www.highbeam.com/doc/1P1-111273946.html| archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140629120629/http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1P1-111273946.html| url-status=dead| archive-date=June 29, 2014| date=July 21, 2005| last=Giridharadas| first=Anand| accessdate=August 2, 2014}}</ref> In 2006, ''Newsweek'' and the ''International Herald Tribune'' joined several academics in discussing India's potential of becoming a superpower.<ref name="rising">{{cite magazine| url=http://www.newsweek.com/india-rising-106259| title=India Rising| magazine=Newsweek| date=March 5, 2006| last=Zakaria| first=Fareed| accessdate=August 2, 2014}}</ref><ref name="IndiaSuperpower">{{cite web|url=http://realtruth.org/articles/434-iasitm.html| title=India: A Superpower in the Making?| last=Ambrose| first=Jeffrey R.| publisher=RealTruth.org| accessdate=August 2, 2014}}</ref>

Anil Gupta is almost certain that India will become a superpower in the 21st century. As an example, he states that due to India's functional institutions of democracy and its relatively [[Philosophy:Corruption|corruption]]-free society, it will emerge as a desirable, entrepreneurial and resource and energy-efficient superpower in the near future. He had predicted that by 2015 India would overtake China to be the fastest growing economy in the world and predicts an emergence as a full-fledged economic superpower by 2025. In addition to that, he states, India has the potential to serve as a leading example of how to combine rapid economic growth with fairness towards and inclusion of those at the bottom rungs of the ladder and of efficient resource utilization, especially in energy.<ref>{{cite news| url=http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-01-09/news/29382860_1_third-largest-economy-superpower-india-s-gdp |title=India 2025: What kind of superpower? |publisher=Economictimes.indiatimes.com |date=2011-01-09 |accessdate=2012-02-10}}</ref> India became the world's fastest growing economy in 2015 and did continue to do so in 2016.<ref>{{cite news|title=India to beat China again as fastest-growing economy in 2016: IMF|url=http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2015-07-09/news/64243978_1_growth-projection-world-economic-outlook-update-fastest-growing-economy|accessdate=20 November 2015|date=9 July 2015}}</ref>

Economists and Researchers at [[Organization:Harvard University|Harvard University]] have projected India's 7% projected annual growth rate through 2024 would continue to put it ahead of China, making India the fastest growing economy in the world.<ref>{{cite news|title=New Growth Projections Predict the Rise of India, East Africa and Fall of Oil Economies|url=http://www.hks.harvard.edu/news-events/news/articles/new-growth-projections|accessdate=12 April 2016|date=7 May 2015}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|title=India Will Be Fastest-Growing Economy for Coming Decade, Harvard Researchers Predict|url=https://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2016/01/01/india-will-be-fastest-growing-economy-for-coming-decade-harvard-researchers-predict/|accessdate=12 April 2016|date=1 January 2016}}</ref> In 2017, Center for International Development at Harvard University, published a research study,<ref name="2025 Projections Harvard"/> projecting that India has emerged<ref name="2025 Projections Harvard"/> as the economic pole of global growth by surpassing China and is expected to maintain its lead over the coming decade.<ref name="2025 Projections Harvard">{{cite web|title=New 2025 Global Growth Projections Predict China’s Further Slowdown and the Continued Rise of India|url=http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/rankings/growth-predictions/|work=[[Organization:Harvard University|Harvard University]]|accessdate=10 July 2017}}</ref>

Robyn Meredith points out that the average incomes of European and Americans are higher than Chinese and Indians, and hundreds of millions of Chinese as well as Indians live in poverty, she also suggested that economic growth of these nations has been the most important factor in reducing global poverty of the last two decades, as per the World Bank report.<ref name="elephantdragon"/> Amy Chua adds to this, that India still faces many problems such as "pervasive rural poverty, entrenched corruption, and high [[Social:Economic inequality|inequality]] just to name a few". However, she notes that India has made tremendous strides to fix this, stating that some of India's achievements, such as working to dismantle the centuries-old [[Social:Caste|caste system]] and maintaining the world's largest diverse democracy, are historically unprecedented.<ref name="Chua, A 2007"/>

Fareed Zakaria pointing out that India's young population coupled with the second-largest [[Social:English language|English]]-speaking population in the world could give India an advantage over China. He also believes that while other industrial countries will face a youth gap, India will have lots of young people, or in other words, workers, and by 2050, its per capita income will rise by twenty times its current level. According to Zakaria, another strength that India has is that its democratic government has lasted for 60 years, stating that a democracy can provide for long-term stability, which has given India a name.<ref>Zakaria, F. (2008) ''The Post-American World''. W. W. Norton and Company, {{ISBN|978-0-393-06235-9}}</ref>

Clyde V. Prestowitz Jr., founder and president of the Economic Strategy Institute and former counselor to the Secretary of Commerce in the Reagan administration, has predicted that "It is going to be India's century. India is going to be the biggest economy in the world. It is going to be the biggest superpower of the 21st century."<ref>{{cite web |url= http://www.rediff.com/money/2006/mar/29minter.htm |title='India will be the biggest superpower'|work=Rediff |year=2006 |accessdate=19 July 2014}}</ref>

According to the report named "Indian Century: Defining India's Place in a Rapidly Changing Global Economy" by [[Company:IBM|IBM]] Institute for Business Value, India is predicted to be among the world's highest-growth nations over the coming years.<ref name="IBM India Century">{{cite journal|last=Subramanian|first=Samanth|title=The Outlier:The inscrutable politics of Subramanian Swamy|url=http://www.caravanmagazine.in/reportage/outlier|journal=The Caravan: A journal of politics & culture|date=1 May 2012|accessdate=29 March 2018}}</ref><ref name="IBM 21">{{cite web|title=India to be world's highest growth nation in 21st century: IBM study|url=http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/india-to-be-world-s-highest-growth-nation-in-21st-century-ibm-study-115121000918_1.html|work=Business Standard|accessdate=11 February 2016}}</ref><ref name="IBM">{{cite web|title=21st century is India's century: IBM chief Virginia Rometty|url=http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/economy/21st-century-is-indias-century-ibm-chief-virginia-rometty_1963021.html|work=Moneycontrol.com|accessdate=11 February 2016}}</ref>

=== Contrary views ===
Parag Khanna wrote in 2008 that he believes that India is not, nor will it become a superpower for the foreseeable future, lagging decades behind China in both development and strategic appetite.<ref>{{cite news| last=Khanna |first=Parag |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/27/magazine/27world-t.html |title=Waving Goodbye to Hegemony |newspaper={{wipe|The New York Times}}|date=2008-01-27 |accessdate=2012-02-10}}</ref> Instead, he believes India will be a key swing state along with Russia.<ref>{{cite book| last=Khanna| first=Parag| title=The Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order| date=2009| isbn=978-0-812-97984-8| publisher=Random House| url=https://archive.org/details/secondworldhowem00khan}}</ref> He says that India is "big but not important", has a highly successful professional class, while millions of its citizens still live in poverty. He also writes that it matters that China borders a dozen more countries than India and is not hemmed in by a vast ocean and the world's tallest mountains.<ref>{{cite web| last=Khanna |first=Parag |url=http://www.newamerica.net/node/8987 |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20110629133515/http://www.newamerica.net/node/8987 |archivedate=2011-06-29 |title=The Rise of Non-Americanism |publisher=Newamerica.net |date=2008-05-18 |accessdate=2012-02-10}}</ref> However, in a recent article written by Khanna, he says that India, along with China, will grow ever stronger, while other powers, like Europe, muddle along.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://paragkhanna.com/future-shock-welcome-to-the-new-middle-ages/ |title=Parag Khanna |publisher=Parag Khanna |date=2010-12-28 |accessdate=2012-02-10}}</ref>

Lant Pritchett, reviewing the book ''In Spite of the Gods: The Strange Rise of Modern India'', writes that, while India has had impressive growth and has some world-class institutions, several other indicators are puzzlingly poor. The malnutrition and the coverage of [[Biology:Immunization|immunization]] programs are at levels similar or worse than in many sub-Saharan African nations. In the [[Biology:Demographic and Health Surveys|Demographic and Health Surveys]], India's child malnutrition was the worst of the 42 nations with comparable and recent data.<ref name="doi10.1257/jel.47.3.771">{{Cite journal | last1 = Pritchett | first1 = L. | title = A Review of Edward Luce'sIn Spite of the Gods: The Strange Rise of Modern India | doi = 10.1257/jel.47.3.771 | journal = Journal of Economic Literature | volume = 47 | issue = 3 | pages = 771–081 | year = 2009 | pmid =  | pmc = }}</ref> Adult [[Philosophy:Literacy|literacy]] is 61%. In one study, 26% of teachers were absent from work and 1/3 of those showing up did not teach. 40% of health care workers were absent from work. Caste politics in India remains an important force. Pritchett argues that a very large population, a very long statistical "tail" of high quality students, and some very good higher education institutions gives a misleading impression of Indian education. Indian students placed forty-first and thirty-seventh in a study comparing students in the two Indian states Odisha and Rajasthan to the forty-six nations in the 2003 [[Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study]].<ref name="doi10.1257/jel.47.3.771"/>

Manjari Chatterjee Miller, assistant professor of international relations at [[Organization:Boston University|Boston University]], argues that India is a "would-be" great power but "resists its own rise".<ref name="FA Miller 14">{{cite journal|last=Miller|first=Manjari Chatterjee|title=India's Feeble Foreign Policy|journal=Foreign Affairs|date=May–June 2013|volume= 92|issue= 3|page=14|url=https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/india/2013-04-03/indias-feeble-foreign-policy|accessdate=27 June 2013}}</ref> Three factors contribute to this stagnation, she argues. First, [[Place:New Delhi|New Delhi]]'s foreign policy decisions are highly individualistic.<ref name="FA Miller 14"/> "This autonomy, in turn, means that New Delhi does very little collective thinking about its long-term foreign policy goals, since most of the strategic planning that takes place within the government happens on an individual level."<ref>{{cite journal|last=Miller|first=Manjari Chatterjee|title=India's Feeble Foreign Policy|journal=Foreign Affairs|date=May–June 2013|volume= 92|issue= 3|page=15|url=https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/india/2013-04-03/indias-feeble-foreign-policy|accessdate=27 June 2013}}</ref> Second, a dearth of think tanks helps insulate Indian foreign policymakers from outside influences.<ref name="FA Miller 14"/> "U.S. foreign policymakers, by contrast, can expect strategic guidance from a broad spectrum of organizations that supplement the long-term planning that happens within the government itself."<ref>{{cite journal| last=Miller| first=Manjari Chatterjee| title=India's Feeble Foreign Policy| journal=Foreign Affairs| date=May–June 2013| volume= 92| issue= 3| page=17| url=https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/india/2013-04-03/indias-feeble-foreign-policy| accessdate=27 June 2013}}</ref> Third, many of India's political elites believe that the country's inevitable rise is a Western construct that has placed unrealistic expectations on India's economic growth forecasts and its international commitments.<ref name="FA Miller 14"/> By contrast, Miller notes that Chinese political leaders pay very close attention to the international hype surrounding their country's growing stature.<ref name="FA Miller 14"/> Miller concludes that "India's inability to develop top-down, long-term strategies means that it cannot systematically consider the implications of its growing power. So long as this remains the case, the country will not play the role in global affairs that many expect."<ref>{{cite journal| last=Miller| first=Manjari Chatterjee| title=India's Feeble Foreign Policy| journal=Foreign Affairs| date=May–June 2013| volume= 92| issue= 3| page=18| url=https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/india/2013-04-03/indias-feeble-foreign-policy| accessdate=27 June 2013}}</ref>

== Russia ==
{|style="width:auto; toc:25em; font-size:85%; text-align:left;" class="infobox"
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!colspan="4"  style="text-align:center; background:#ccf;"|'''{{wipe|Russia}}'''
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|colspan="4" style="text-align:center;"|[[File:Flag of Russia.svg|center|border|180px]]
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|colspan="4" style="text-align:center;"|[[File:Russian Federation 2014 (orthographic projection) with Crimea.svg|center|180px]]
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The {{wipe|Russia}} has been suggested as a potential candidate for resuming superpower status in the 21st century.<ref name="Russia in the 21st Century"/><ref name="georgiandaily.com">New York Times by Ronald Steel professor of international relations August 24, 2008 (Superpower Reborn)[http://georgiandaily.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=6527&Itemid=68&lang=ka]</ref><ref>{{cite web|author=Farooque Chowdhury|url=http://www.countercurrents.org/chowdhury221213.htm|title=A Militarily Resurging Russia|publisher=Counter Currents|date=22 December 2013|accessdate=13 September 2015}}</ref> Russia has seen some discussion regarding its potential of re-emerging as a superpower, while others have made the assertion that it is already a superpower.<ref>{{cite news|title=A Superpower Is Reborn|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/24/opinion/24steel.html?_r=0|newspaper=The New York Times|accessdate=19 November 2015}}</ref> In 2009, Hugo Chavez, late President of Venezuela whose government was noted to have enjoyed warm relations with the Kremlin, stated that "Russia is a superpower", citing waning American influence in global affairs, and suggested the ruble be elevated to a global currency.<ref>{{cite news|author=Megan K. Stack|url=http://articles.latimes.com/2009/sep/11/world/fg-russia-chavez11|title=Venezuela's Hugo Chavez recognizes independence of breakaway Georgia republics|newspaper={{wipe|Los Angeles Times}}|date=11 September 2009|accessdate=7 July 2014}}</ref> [[Place:Israel|Israel]]i Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Russia an important superpower, praising its effectiveness as an ally of Israel.<ref>{{cite web|author=Robert Berger|url=http://www.voanews.com/content/netanyahu-heads-to-russia-with-call-for-crippling-sanctions-on-iran-84341537/112463.html|title=Netanyahu Heads to Russia with Call for 'Crippling Sanctions' on Iran|publisher=Voice of America|date=13 February 2010|accessdate=7 July 2014}}</ref> In his 2005 publication entitled ''Russia in the 21st Century: The Prodigal Superpower'', Steven Rosefielde, a professor of economics at [[Organization:University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill|University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill]], predicted that Russia would emerge as a superpower before 2010 and augur another arms race. However, Rosefielde noted that such an end would come with tremendous sacrifice to global security and the Russian people's freedom.<ref>{{cite book|author=Steven Rosefielde|url=http://www.cambridge.org/gb/academic/subjects/economics/international-economics/russia-21st-century-prodigal-superpower|title=Russia in the 21st Century|publisher=[[Organization:University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill|UNC]] Press|date=February 2005|isbn=978-0-521-54529-7}}</ref>

In 2014, Stephen Kinzer of ''The Boston Globe'' compared Russia's actions with its own neighboring territories, to those of "any other superpower", taking Ukraine and Crimea as examples.<ref>{{cite news|author=Stephen Kinzer|url=https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2014/05/11/russia-acts-like-any-other-superpower/AJRSNiIUYQPAHRlLXcfIlJ/story.html|title=Russia acts like any other superpower|newspaper=Boston Globe|date=11 May 2014|accessdate=7 July 2014}}</ref> A mixed opinion has been offered by Matthew Fleischer of the ''{{wipe|Los Angeles Times}}'': he contends that Russia will not become a superpower unless [[Earth:Climate change|climate change]] eats away at the [[Earth:Permafrost|permafrost]] that covers, as of March 2014, two-thirds of the country's landmass. The absence of this permafrost would reveal immense stores of oil, natural gas, and precious minerals, as well as potential farmland, which would allow Russia to "become the world's bread basket—and control the planet's food supply."<ref>{{cite news|author=Matthew Fleischer|url=http://www.latimes.com/opinion/opinion-la/la-ol-climate-change-russia-super-power-20140311-story.html|title=How curbing climate change can prevent Russia from becoming a superpower|newspaper=Los Angeles Times|date=12 March 2014|accessdate=7 July 2014}}</ref>

Russian news agency RIA Novosti called Russia a "superpower" after its actions in Syria,<ref>{{cite news|title=Россия – военная сверхдержава, и США должны с этим считаться|url=http://ria.ru/world/20151104/1313528799.html|accessdate=8 November 2015|publisher=РИА Новости|language=Russian}}</ref> and after the formation of a coalition to fight ISIS in Syria and Iraq, Benny Avni of the ''New York Post'' called Russia the "world's new sole superpower".<ref>{{cite news|title=Obama has turned Putin into the world’s most powerful leader|url=https://nypost.com/2015/09/29/obama-has-turned-putin-into-the-worlds-most-powerful-leader/|accessdate=8 November 2015|newspaper=New York Post}}</ref>

=== Contrary views ===
During the annual state of the nation address at the Moscow Kremlin in December 2013, Russian president Vladimir Putin denied any Russian aspiration to be a superpower. He was quoted saying: "We do not aspire to be called some kind of superpower, understanding that as a claim to world or regional hegemony. We do not infringe on anyone's interests, we do not force our patronage on anyone, or try to teach anyone how to live."<ref>{{cite news|work=Reuters|url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-putin-usa-idUSBRE9BB09M20131212#JyFg7fEQaBur6ogM.97|title=Russia is a force for moral good but no superpower|date=12 December 2013|accessdate=2 August 2014}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/articles/2013/12/12/putin-rossiya-ne-pretenduet-na-status-sverhderzhavy|script-title=ru:Путин: Россия не претендует на статус сверхдержавы|trans-title=Putin: Russia does not make claims to superpower status|language=ru|publisher=Vedomosti|website=vedomosti.ru|date=12 December 2013|accessdate=8 July 2014}}</ref>

''{{wipe|Forbes}}'' writer Jonathan Adelman has summarized the arguments against Russia's superpower potential thus: "While Russia may have grabbed the headlines for hosting the forthcoming Olympics and Edward Snowden, it's no super power. Russia has a trade profile of a [[Social:Third World|Third World]] country, a GNP the size of {{wipe|Canada}}, which is less than 15 percent of the United States GDP, no soft power, Silicon Valley, Hollywood, Wall Street or highly rated universities."<ref>{{cite magazine|author=Jonathan Adelman|url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2013/11/24/why-the-u-s-remains-the-worlds-unchallenged-superpower/|title=Why The U.S. Remains the World's Unchallenged Superpower|magazine={{wipe|Forbes}}|date=24 November 2013|accessdate=7 July 2014}}</ref><ref>Adelman means nominal GDP, the PPP one is much higher, comparable with Germany and Brasil.</ref>

Several analysts commented on the fact that Russia showed signs of an aging and shrinking population. Fred Weir said that this severely constricts and limits Russia's potential to re-emerge as a central world power.<ref>{{cite web|author=Fred Weir|url=http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/europe/russia/111102/russia-population-superpower-health-soviet-union|title=Despite huge cash bonuses to mothers, Russia's population is shrinking|publisher=GlobalPost|date=3 November 2011|accessdate=8 July 2014}}</ref> Former political journalist Peter Brown wrote that Russia "would like to reclaim the superpower status it held for nearly 40 years after World War II," but in the 21st century "may lack the combination of economic and military power" to do so. He said that "Russia won't be a superpower anytime soon," citing Russia's shrinking population, high levels of poverty and poor public health.<ref>{{cite news|author=Peter Brown|url=https://blogs.wsj.com/capitaljournal/2009/08/26/do-the-math-why-russia-won%E2%80%99t-be-a-superpower-anytime-soon/|title=Do the Math: Why Russia Won't Be a Superpower Anytime Soon|newspaper=The Wall Street Journal|date=26 August 2009|accessdate=11 September 2015}}</ref> In 2011, British historian and professor [[Biography:Niall Ferguson|Niall Ferguson]] also highlighted the negative effects of Russia's declining population, and suggested that Russia is on its way to "global irrelevance".<ref>{{cite magazine|author=Niall Ferguson|url=http://www.newsweek.com/decline-putins-russia-its-way-global-irrelevance-65847|title=In Decline, Putin's Russia Is On Its Way to Global Irrelevance|magazine=Newsweek|date=12 December 2011|accessdate=2 August 2014}}</ref> Russia has, however, shown a slight population growth since 2012, partly due to immigration.<ref>{{cite magazine|author=Mark Adomanis|url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2013/05/11/russias-population-isnt-shrinking-its-growing-very-very-slowly/|title=Russia's Population Isn't Shrinking (It's Growing Very, Very Slowly)|magazine=Forbes|date=11 May 2013|accessdate=8 July 2014}}</ref> The number of Chinese in the Russia's Far East has been growing.<ref>{{cite news|first=Peter|last=Zeihan|url=http://abcnews.go.com/International/story?id=82969|title=Analysis: Russia's Far East Turning Chinese|publisher=abcnews.go.com|date=14 July 2013|accessdate=18 April 2016}}</ref> Russia's demographic problems continued in 2015.<ref>{{cite magazine|first=Mark|last=Adomanis|url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2015/05/29/according-to-the-latest-data-russias-demography-is-still-in-sharp-decline/#460d621663d1|title=According To The Latest Data Russia's Demography Is Still In Sharp Decline|magazine=Forbes|date=29 May 2015|accessdate=18 April 2016}}</ref>

Nathan Smith of the ''National Business Review'' has said that despite Russia having potential, it did not win the new "Cold War" in the 1980s, and thus makes superpower status inaccurate.<ref>{{cite news|author=Nathan Smith|url=http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/do-not-treat-russia-superpower-it-isnt-ns-152930|title=Do not treat Russia like a superpower, it isn't|newspaper=National Business Review|date=8 March 2014|accessdate=7 July 2014}}</ref>

== Historical potential of Japan ==
{|style="width:auto; toc:25em; font-size:85%; text-align:left;" class="infobox"
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!colspan="4"  style="text-align:center; background:#ccf;"|'''{{wipe|Japan}}'''
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|colspan="4" style="text-align:center;"|[[File:Flag of Japan.svg|center|border|180px]]
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|colspan="4" style="text-align:center;"|[[File:Japan (orthographic projection).svg|center|180px]]
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In the 1980s, many political and [[Finance:Financial analyst|economic analysts]] predicted that {{wipe|Japan}} would eventually accede to superpower status, due to its large population, huge [[Finance:Gross domestic product|gross domestic product]] and high [[Finance:Economic growth|economic growth]] at that time and the expectation that it would surpass the economy of the United States.<ref name="Zakaria, F 2008">{{cite book|last=Zakaria|first=Fareed|date=2008|title=The Post-American World|publisher=W. W. Norton and Company|isbn=978-0-393-06235-9|page=210}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.economist.com/business/2009/11/12/land-of-the-setting-sun|title=Land of the setting sun|date=November 12, 2009|via=The Economist}}</ref><ref>{{cite magazine|url=http://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,967823,00.html|title=Japan From Superrich To Superpower|magazine={{wipe|Time (magazine)}}|date=July 4, 1988}}</ref> Though still the world's tenth-largest population and third-largest economy as of 2016 in terms of nominal GDP, Japan has faced an ongoing period of weak growth since the Lost Decade of the 1990s, and has been suffering from an aging population since the early 2000s, eroding its potential as a superpower.<ref name="Leika Kihara">{{cite news|title=Japan eyes end to decades long deflation|url=https://www.reuters.com/article/japan-economy-estimate-idUSL4E8JH1TC20120817#ySOkSfW3bZs8lVWK.97|author=Leika Kihara|work=Reuters|date=17 August 2012|accessdate=7 September 2012}}</ref>

Japan had superpower potential, because the demographic problem could be mended by recruiting more overseas workers. Nearby countries such as the Philippines could become a major source of the manpower Japan needs to sustain its economic recovery.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.philstar.com/opinion/2017/07/01/1715536/japan-emerging-superpower|title=Japan: The emerging superpower|newspaper=The Philippine Star|date=July 1, 2017|accessdate=23 September 2018}}</ref> Japan was ranked as the world's fourth most-powerful military in 2015.<ref name="CreditSuisse2015">{{cite report|url=http://publications.credit-suisse.com/tasks/render/file/index.cfm?fileid=EE7A6A5D-D9D5-6204-E9E6BB426B47D054|title=The End of Globalization or a more Multipolar World?|publisher=[[Company:Credit Suisse|Credit Suisse]] AG|first1=Michael|last1=O’Sullivan|first2=Krithika|last2=Subramanian|date=2015-10-17|accessdate=2017-07-14}}</ref> The military capabilities of the Japan Self-Defense Forces are held back by the pacifist 1947 constitution. However, there is a gradual push for a constitutional amendment. On 18, September 2015, the National Diet enacted the 2015 Japanese military legislation, a series of laws that allow Japan's Self-Defense Forces to collective self-defense of allies in combat for the first time under its constitution.<ref>{{cite news|title=Japan enacts major changes to its self-defense laws |last=Slavin |first=Erik |location=Tokyo |date=18 September 2015 |newspaper=Stars and Stripes |url=http://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/japan-enacts-major-changes-to-its-self-defense-laws-1.368783|url-status=dead |archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20180619063041/https://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/japan-enacts-major-changes-to-its-self-defense-laws-1.368783 |archivedate=June 19, 2018 }}</ref> In May 2017, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe set a 2020 deadline for revising Article 9, which would legitimize the JSDF in the Constitution.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://thediplomat.com/2017/05/abes-new-vision-for-japans-constitution/|title=Abe’s New Vision for Japan's Constitution|first=Yuki Tatsumi, The|last=Diplomat|date=|website=thediplomat.com|accessdate=18 May 2017}}</ref> Japan is a cultural superpower in terms of the large scale influence Japanese electronics, automobiles, music, video games, and anime have on the world.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.spectator.co.uk/2015/01/how-japan-became-a-pop-culture-superpower/|title=How Japan became a pop culture superpower|date=January 31, 2015|website=The Spectator}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2010/09/07/reference/anime-makes-japan-superpower/|title='Anime' makes Japan superpower|first=Kazuaki|last=Nagata|date=September 7, 2010|via=Japan Times Online}}</ref>

== See also ==
* American Century
* Asian Century
* [[Finance:BRIC|BRIC]]
* [[Organization:BRICS|BRICS]]
* Emerging power
* [[Social:Energy superpower|Energy superpower]]
* [[Finance:Eurasian Economic Union|Eurasian Economic Union]]
* Group of Two
* [[Finance:Mercosur|Mercosur]]
* [[History:Pacific Century|Pacific Century]]
* [[Finance:Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership|Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership]]
* Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)
* [[Organization:South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation|South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation]]

== References ==
{{reflist|30em}}

{{clear}}

== External links ==
* [http://www.crp.polis.cam.ac.uk/ Centre for Rising Powers, University of Cambridge]
* [https://repository.library.georgetown.edu/handle/10822/552652 China on the World Stage] from the [https://repository.library.georgetown.edu/handle/10822/552494 Dean Peter Krogh Foreign Affairs Digital Archives]
* [http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/asia/article3913602.ece Blast off: India hopes Mars rocket will enhance its superpower status] by The Times
* [https://hbr.org/2007/12/china-india-the-power-of-two/ar/1 China and India: The Power of Two] by Harvard Business Review
* [https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/04/the-end-of-pax-americana-how-western-decline-became-inevitable/256388/?single_page=true The End of Pax Americana: How Western Decline Became Inevitable] by The Atlantic
* [https://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2013/11/24/why-the-u-s-remains-the-worlds-unchallenged-superpower/ Why The U.S. Remains The World's Unchallenged Superpower]


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[[Category:Futurology]]

{{Sourceattribution|Potential superpowers|1}}