Philosophy:Hofstadter's law

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Short description: Self-referential adage referring to time estimates

Hofstadter's law is a self-referential adage, coined by Douglas Hofstadter in his book Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid (1979) to describe the widely experienced difficulty of accurately estimating the time it will take to complete tasks of substantial complexity:[1][2]

Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.[2]

The law is often cited by programmers in discussions of techniques to improve productivity, such as The Mythical Man-Month or extreme programming.[3]

History

In 1979, Hofstadter introduced the law in connection with a discussion of chess-playing computers, which at the time were continually being beaten by top-level human players, despite outpacing humans in depth of analysis. Hofstadter wrote:

In the early days of computer chess, people used to estimate that it would be ten years until a computer (or program) was world champion. But after ten years had passed, it seemed that the day a computer would become world champion was still more than ten years away... This is just one more piece of evidence for the rather recursive Hofstadter's Law.[4][5][6][7]

In 1997, the chess computer Deep Blue became the first to beat a human champion by defeating Garry Kasparov.

See also

References

  1. Waters, Donald J.; Commission on Preservation and Access (1992). Electronic technologies and preservation. Commission on Preservation and Access. ISBN 9781887334167. https://books.google.com/books?id=JbHgAAAAMAAJ&q=%22Hofstadter's+law%22. Retrieved 2011-06-08. 
  2. 2.0 2.1 Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid. 20th anniversary ed., 1999, p. 152. ISBN:0-465-02656-7.
  3. David M. Goldschmidt (October 3, 1983). "The trials and tribulations of a cottage industrialist". InfoWorld (InfoWorld Media Group, Inc.) 5 (40): 16. https://books.google.com/books?id=2C8EAAAAMBAJ&q=%22Hofstadter%27s+law%22&pg=PA16. Retrieved 2011-06-08. 
  4. Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid, Basic Books 1979, Vintage Books Edition, 1980, p. 152.
  5. Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid. 20th anniversary ed., 1999, p. 152. ISBN:0-465-02656-7
  6. Rawson, Hugh (2002). Unwritten Laws: The Unofficial Rules of Life as Handed Down by Murphy and Other Sages. Book Sales. p. 115. ISBN 9780785815433. https://books.google.com/books?id=6OqbX7Z59wMC&q=%22Hofstadter's+law%22+chess. Retrieved 2011-06-08. 
  7. "Hofstadter's Law". 2008. http://lawsoflife.co.uk/hofstadters-law/.