Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Program

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Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) was a program of the Office of Incisive Analysis (OIA) at the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA).[1][2] The program ran from June 2010 until June 2015.[3]

History

The broad program announcement for ACE was published on June 30, 2010.[4] ACE funded the Aggregative Contingent Estimation System (ACES) website and interface on July 15, 2011.[5] They funded The Good Judgment Project some time around July 2011.[6] ACE has been covered in The Washington Post ''[7] and Wired Magazine.[8] The program was concluded by late 2015.[9] The program manager was future IARPA director Jason Gaverick Matheny.[10]

Goals and methods

The official website says that the goals of ACE are "to dramatically enhance the accuracy, precision, and timeliness of intelligence forecasts for a broad range of event types, through the development of advanced techniques that elicit, weight, and combine the judgments of many intelligence analysts."[1] The website claims that ACE seeks technical innovations in the following areas:[1]

  • efficient elicitation of probabilistic judgments, including conditional probabilities for contingent events
  • mathematical aggregation of judgments by many individuals, based on factors that may include: past performance, expertise, cognitive style, metaknowledge, and other attributes predictive of accuracy
  • effective representation of aggregated probabilistic forecasts and their distributions.

There is a fair amount of research funded by grants made by the IARPA ACE program.[11]

Partners

The ACE has collaborated with partners who compete in its forecasting tournaments. Their most notable partner is The Good Judgment Project from Philip E. Tetlock et al.[12] (winner of a 2013 ACE tournament)[7] ACE also partnered with the ARA to create the Aggregative Contingent Estimation System (ACES).[5]

Data from ACE is fed into another program, called Forecasting Science and Technology (ForeST), which partners with SciCast from George Mason University.[13]

References

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 Matheny, Jason; Rieber, Steve. "Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE)". Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity. http://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/ace. 
  2. ↑ "Aggregative Contingent Estimation". Office of the Director of National Intelligence, United States. https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/iarpa_big_data.pdf. 
  3. ↑ Harbert, Tam (2015-10-19). "IARPA's New Director Wants You to Surprise Him". https://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/networks/iarpas-new-director-wants-you-to-surprise-him. 
  4. ↑ "Aggregative Contingent Estimation System". Federal Business Opportunities. June 30, 2010. https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&tab=core&id=54f9f4b696ffeedf52cffc433a2fc878. 
  5. ↑ 5.0 5.1 Hickey, Kathleen (July 15, 2011). "Intell site tests crowdsourcing's ability to predict future". GCN. http://gcn.com/articles/2011/07/15/intell-crowdsourcing-forecasting-ace.aspx. 
  6. ↑ "The idea behind the Good Judgment Project". The Good Judgment Project. July 27, 2011. http://goodjudgmentproject.com/blog/?p=4. 
  7. ↑ 7.0 7.1 Horowitz, Michael (November 26, 2013). "Good judgment in forecasting international affairs (and an invitation for season 3)". The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2013/11/26/good-judgment-in-forecasting-international-affairs-and-an-invitation-for-season-3/. 
  8. ↑ Drummond, Katie (April 22, 2010). "Can Algorithms Find the Best Intelligence Analysts?". Wired Magazine. https://www.wired.com/2010/04/can-algorithms-find-the-best-intelligence-analysts/. 
  9. ↑ Corrin, Amber (2015-09-23). "IARPA's high-stakes intelligence experiment". http://www.c4isrnet.com/story/military-tech/it/2015/09/23/iarpa-anticipating-surprise/72632204/. 
  10. ↑ Marc Prensky (7 August 2012). Brain Gain: Technology and the Quest for Digital Wisdom. St. Martin's Press. p. 260. ISBN 978-1-137-09317-2. https://books.google.com/books?id=YM-00xBevvcC&pg=PA260. "The ACE program manager is Jason Matheny" 
  11. ↑ "Google Scholar listing of research funded by IARPA ACE". https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&q=%22D11PC20058+OR+D11PC20059+OR+D11PC20060+OR+D11PC20061+OR+D11PC20062%22&btnG=&as_sdt=1%2C47&as_sdtp=. 
  12. ↑ "The Project". The Good Judgment Project. http://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/about_project.html. 
  13. ↑ Matheny, Jason. "Forecasting Science & Technology (ForeST)". Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity. http://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/forest. 

External links




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