Earth:Integrated assessment modelling

From HandWiki
Short description: Scientific modeling that combines society, economy and the climate system

Integrated assessment modelling (IAM) or integrated modelling (IM) [lower-alpha 1] is a term used for a type of scientific modelling that tries to link main features of society and economy with the biosphere and atmosphere into one modelling framework. The goal of integrated assessment modelling is to accommodate informed policy-making, usually in the context of climate change [2] though also in other areas of human and social development.[3] While the detail and extent of integrated disciplines varies strongly per model, all climatic integrated assessment modelling includes economic processes as well as processes producing greenhouse gases.[4] Other integrated assessment models also integrate other aspects of human development such as education,[5] health,[6] infrastructure,[7] and governance.[8]

These models are integrated because they span multiple academic disciplines, including economics and climate science and for more comprehensive models also energy systems, land-use change, agriculture, infrastructure, conflict, governance, technology, education, and health. The word assessment comes from the use of these models to provide information for answering policy questions.[9] To quantify these integrated assessment studies, numerical models are used. Integrated assessment modelling does not provide predictions for the future but rather estimates what possible scenarios look like.[9]

There are different types of integrated assessment models. One classification distinguishes between firstly models that quantify future developmental pathways or scenarios and provide detailed, sectoral information on the complex processes modelled. Here they are called process-based models. Secondly, there are models that aggregate the costs of climate change and climate change mitigation to find estimates of the total costs of climate change.[4] A second classification makes a distinction between models that extrapolate verified patterns (via econometrics equations), or models that determine (globally) optimal economic solutions from the perspective of a social planner, assuming (partial) equilibrium of the economy.[10][11]

Process-based models

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have relied on process-based integrated assessment models to quantify mitigation scenarios.[12][13] They have been used to explore different pathways for staying within climate policy targets such as the 1.5 °C target agreed upon in the Paris Agreement.[14] Moreover, these models have underpinned research including energy policy assessment[15] and simulate the Shared socioeconomic pathways.[16][17] Notable modelling frameworks include IMAGE,[18] MESSAGEix,[19] AIM/GCE,[20] GCAM,[21] REMIND-MAgPIE,[22] and WITCH-GLOBIOM.[23][24] While these scenarios are highly policy-relevant, interpretation of the scenarios should be done with care.[25]

Non-equilibrium models include[26] those based on econometric equations and evolutionary economics (such as E3ME),[27] and agent-based models (such as the agent-based DSK-model).[11] These models typically do not assume rational and representative agents, nor market equilibrium in the long term.[26]

Aggregate cost-benefit models

Cost-benefit integrated assessment models are the main tools for calculating the social cost of carbon, or the marginal social cost of emitting one more tonne of carbon (as carbon dioxide) into the atmosphere at any point in time.[28] For instance, the DICE,[29] PAGE,[30] and FUND[31] models have been used by the US Interagency Working Group to calculate the social cost of carbon and its results have been used for regulatory impact analysis.[32]

This type of modelling is carried out to find the total cost of climate impacts, which are generally considered a negative externality not captured by conventional markets. In order to correct such a market failure, for instance by using a carbon tax, the cost of emissions is required.[28] However, the estimates of the social cost of carbon are highly uncertain[33] and will remain so for the foreseeable future.[34] It has been argued that "IAM-based analyses of climate policy create a perception of knowledge and precision that is illusory, and can fool policy-makers into thinking that the forecasts the models generate have some kind of scientific legitimacy".[35] Still, it has been argued that attempting to calculate the social cost of carbon is useful to gain insight into the effect of certain processes on climate impacts, as well as to better understand one of the determinants international cooperation in the governance of climate agreements.[33]

Integrated assessment models have not been used solely to assess environmental or climate change-related fields. They have also been used to analyze patterns of conflict,[36] the Sustainable Development Goals,[37] trends across issue area in Africa,[38] and food security.[39]

Shortcomings

All numerical models have shortcomings. In 2021, the integrated assessment modeling community examined gaps in what was termed the "possibility space" and how these might best be consolidated and addressed.[40] In an October 2021 working paper, Nicolas Stern argues that existing IAMs are inherently unable to capture the economic realities of the climate crisis under its current state of rapid progress.[41]:§6.2

Notes

  1. ↑ This second shortened version is used in the 2014 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report.[1] Note too the American spellings of integrated assessment modeling and integrated modeling.

References

  1. ↑ Clarke, LeonExpression error: Unrecognized word "etal". (2014). "Chapter 6: Assessing transformation pathways". in IPCC. Climate change 2014: mitigation of climate change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-1-107-65481-5. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg3/ipcc_wg3_ar5_full.pdf. Retrieved 2016-05-09. 
  2. ↑ Wang, Zheng; Wu, Jing; Liu, Changxin; Gu, Gaoxiang (2017). Integrated Assessment Models of Climate Change Economics. Singapore: Springer Singapore. doi:10.1007/978-981-10-3945-4. ISBN 9789811039430. 
  3. ↑ Hughes, Barry (2019). International Futures: Building and Using Global Models. Elsevier Academic Press. ISBN 978-0128042717. 
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 Weyant, John (2017). "Some Contributions of Integrated Assessment Models of Global Climate Change". Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 11 (1): 115–137. doi:10.1093/reep/rew018. ISSN 1750-6816. 
  5. ↑ Dickson, Janet; Hughes, Barry; Irfan, Mohammod (2010). Advancing Global Education. Paradigm Press. ISBN 978-1-59451-755-6. 
  6. ↑ Hughes, Barry; Kuhn, Randall; Peterson, Cecilia; Rothman, Dale; Solorzano, Jose (2011). Improving Global Health. Paradigm Press. ISBN 978-1-59451-896-6. https://pardee.du.edu/sites/default/files/PPHP3_Full_Volume.pdf. 
  7. ↑ Rothman, Dale; Irfan, Mohammod; Margolese-Malin, Eli; Hughes, Barry; Moyer, Jonathan (2014). Building Global Infrastructure. Paradigm Press. ISBN 978-1-61205-092-8. https://pardee.du.edu/sites/default/files/PPHP4_Full_Volume_Corrected.pdf. 
  8. ↑ Hughes, Barry; Joshi, Devin; Moyer, Jonathan; Sisk, Timothy; Solorzano, Jose (2014). Strengthening Governance Globally. Paradigm Press. ISBN 978-1-61205-561-9. https://pardee.du.edu/sites/default/files/PPHP5_Full_Volume.pdf. 
  9. ↑ 9.0 9.1 "Inaugural lecture Detlef van Vuuren: Integrated Assessment: Back to the Future - PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency". https://www.pbl.nl/en/news/newsitems/2015/inaugural-lecture-professor-detlef-van-vuuren-integrated-assessment-back-to-the-future. 
  10. ↑ Pauliuk, Stefan; Arvesen, Anders; Stadler, Konstantin; Hertwich, Edgar G. (2017). "Industrial ecology in integrated assessment models" (in en). Nature Climate Change 7 (1): 13–20. doi:10.1038/nclimate3148. ISSN 1758-6798. Bibcode: 2017NatCC...7...13P. https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3148. 
  11. ↑ 11.0 11.1 Lamperti, F.; Dosi, G.; Napoletano, M.; Roventini, A.; Sapio, A. (2018). "Faraway, So Close: Coupled Climate and Economic Dynamics in an Agent-based Integrated Assessment Model" (in en). Ecological Economics 150: 315–339. doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.03.023. ISSN 0921-8009. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800917314623. 
  12. ↑ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Staff. (2015-01-26). Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change : Working Group III Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report.. ISBN 978-1107654815. OCLC 994399607. 
  13. ↑ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, issuing body.. Global warming of 1.5°C. OCLC 1056192590. 
  14. ↑ Rogelj, J. Popp, A. Calvin, K.V. Luderer, G. Emmerling, J. Gernaat, D. Fujimori, S. Strefler, J. Hasegawa, T. Marangoni, G. Krey, V. Kriegler, E. Riahi, K. van Vuuren, D.P. Doelman, J. Drouet, L. Edmonds, J. Fricko, O. Harmsen, M. Havlik, P. Humpenöder, F. Stehfest, E. Tavoni, M. (2018-03-05). Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C. Nature Publishing Group. OCLC 1039547304. 
  15. ↑ Böhringer, Christoph; Rutherford, Thomos F. (September 2009). "Integrated assessment of energy policies: Decomposing top-down and bottom-up". Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 33 (9): 1648–1661. doi:10.1016/j.jedc.2008.12.007. ISSN 0165-1889. 
  16. ↑ "Explainer: How 'Shared Socioeconomic Pathways' explore future climate change". 2018-04-19. https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-shared-socioeconomic-pathways-explore-future-climate-change. 
  17. ↑ Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Kriegler, Elmar; Edmonds, Jae; O’Neill, Brian C.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Bauer, Nico; Calvin, Katherine et al. (2017-01-01). "The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview". Global Environmental Change 42: 153–168. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009. ISSN 0959-3780. 
  18. ↑ Stehfest, E. (Elke) (2014). Integrated assessment of global environmental change with IMAGE 3.0 : model description and policy applications. ISBN 9789491506710. OCLC 884831253. 
  19. ↑ Huppmann, Daniel; Gidden, Matthew; Fricko, Oliver; Kolp, Peter; Orthofer, Clara; Pimmer, Michael; Kushin, Nikolay; Vinca, Adriano et al. (February 2019). "The MESSAGE Integrated Assessment Model and the ix modeling platform (ixmp): An open framework for integrated and cross-cutting analysis of energy, climate, the environment, and sustainable development". Environmental Modelling & Software 112: 143–156. doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.11.012. http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15157/1/manuscript%20%20The%20MESSAGEix.pdf. 
  20. ↑ Fujimori, Shinichiro; Masui, Toshihiko; Matsuoka, Yuzuru (2017), "AIM/CGE V2.0 Model Formula", Post-2020 Climate Action (Springer Singapore): pp. 201–303, doi:10.1007/978-981-10-3869-3_12, ISBN 9789811038686 
  21. ↑ Calvin, Katherine; Patel, Pralit; Clarke, Leon; Asrar, Ghassem; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Cui, Ryna Yiyun; Di Vittorio, Alan; Dorheim, Kalyn et al. (2019-02-15). "GCAM v5.1: representing the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems". Geoscientific Model Development 12 (2): 677–698. doi:10.5194/gmd-12-677-2019. ISSN 1991-9603. Bibcode: 2019GMD....12..677C. 
  22. ↑ Luderer, Gunnar; Leimbach, Marian; Bauer, Nico; Kriegler, Elmar; Baumstark, Lavinia; Bertram, Christoph; Giannousakis, Anastasis; Hilaire, Jerome et al. (2015). "Description of the REMIND Model (Version 1.6)". SSRN Working Paper Series. doi:10.2139/ssrn.2697070. ISSN 1556-5068. 
  23. ↑ Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; Galeotti, Marzio; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo (2006). "WITCH - A World Induced Technical Change Hybrid Model". SSRN Working Paper Series. doi:10.2139/ssrn.948382. ISSN 1556-5068. http://www.unive.it/pag/fileadmin/user_upload/dipartimenti/economia/doc/Pubblicazioni_scientifiche/working_papers/2006/WP_DSE_Carraro_46_06.pdf. 
  24. ↑ Gambhir, Ajay; Butnar, Isabela; Li, Pei-Hao; Smith, Pete; Strachan, Neil (2019-05-08). "A Review of Criticisms of Integrated Assessment Models and Proposed Approaches to Address These, through the Lens of BECCS". Energies 12 (9): 1747. doi:10.3390/en12091747. ISSN 1996-1073. http://aura.abdn.ac.uk/bitstream/2164/12605/1/A_Review_of_Criticisms_of_Integrated_Assessment_Models_and_Proposed_Approaches_to_Address_These_through_the_Lens_of_BECCS.pdf. 
  25. ↑ Huppmann, Daniel; Rogelj, Joeri; Kriegler, Elmar; Krey, Volker; Riahi, Keywan (2018-10-15). "A new scenario resource for integrated 1.5 °C research". Nature Climate Change 8 (12): 1027–1030. doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0317-4. ISSN 1758-678X. Bibcode: 2018NatCC...8.1027H. http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15519/1/Huppmann_2018_NCC_postprint.pdf. 
  26. ↑ 26.0 26.1 Hafner, Sarah; Anger-Kraavi, Annela; Monasterolo, Irene; Jones, Aled (2020-11-01). "Emergence of New Economics Energy Transition Models: A Review" (in en). Ecological Economics 177: 106779. doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106779. ISSN 0921-8009. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800919307475. 
  27. ↑ Mercure, Jean-Francois; Pollit, Hector; Neil, Edward; Holden, Philip; Unnada, Unnada (2018). "Environmental impact assessment for climate change policy with the simulation-based integrated assessment model E3ME-FTT-GENIE" (in en). Energy Strategy Reviews 20: 195–208. doi:10.1016/j.esr.2018.03.003. ISSN 2211-467X. 
  28. ↑ 28.0 28.1 "Q&A: The social cost of carbon". 2017-02-14. https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-social-cost-carbon. 
  29. ↑ "DICE/RICE models - William Nordhaus | Yale Economics". https://sites.google.com/site/williamdnordhaus/dice-rice. 
  30. ↑ Yumashev, Dmitry Hope, Chris Schaefer, Kevin Riemann-Campe, Kathrin Iglesias-Suarez, Fernando Jafarov, Elchin Burke, Eleanor J. Young, Paul J. Elshorbany, Yasin Whiteman, Gail (2019-04-23). "Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements". Nature Communications 10 (1): 1900. doi:10.1038/s41467-019-09863-x. OCLC 1099183857. PMID 31015475. Bibcode: 2019NatCo..10.1900Y. 
  31. ↑ "FUND - Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution". http://www.fund-model.org/home. 
  32. ↑ United States. Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon, issuing body. Council of Economic Advisers (U.S.), sponsoring body.. Technical support document, technical update of the social cost of carbon for regulatory impact analysis--under executive order 12886. OCLC 959713749. 
  33. ↑ 33.0 33.1 Ricke, Katharine; Drouet, Laurent; Caldeira, Ken; Tavoni, Massimo (2019-03-25). "Author Correction: Country-level social cost of carbon". Nature Climate Change 9 (7): 567. doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0455-3. ISSN 1758-678X. Bibcode: 2019NatCC...9..567R. 
  34. ↑ Pezzey, John C. V. (2018-11-12). "Why the social cost of carbon will always be disputed". Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 10 (1): e558. doi:10.1002/wcc.558. ISSN 1757-7780. 
  35. ↑ Pindyck, Robert S. (2017). "The Use and Misuse of Models for Climate Policy". Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 11 (1): 100–114. doi:10.1093/reep/rew012. 
  36. ↑ Moyer, Jonathan; Bohl, David; Hanna, Taylor; Mapes, Brendan; Rafa, Mickey (2019). Assessing the Impact of War on Development in Yemen. UNDP. https://pardee.du.edu/sites/default/files/UNDP-Y_FullReport_WEB.pdf. 
  37. ↑ Moyer, Jonathan; Hedden, Steve (2020). "Are we on the right path to achieve the sustainable development goals?". World Development 127: 104749. doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104749. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X19303985. 
  38. ↑ Moyer, Jonathan; Bohl, David; Hanna, Taylor; Mayaki, Ibrahim; Bwalya, Martin (2019). Africa's path to 2063: choice in the face of great transformation. Midrand, South Afric: African Union Development Agency. https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/drupalwebsitepardee/pardee/public/Africas_path_to_2063-en.pdf. 
  39. ↑ Hedden, Steve; Rafa, Mickey; Moyer, Jonathan (August 2018). Achieving Food Security in Uganda. https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/drupalwebsitepardee/pardee/public/Pardee_Food_Security_report_v1.pdf. 
  40. ↑ Keppo, Ilkka Johannes; Butnar, I; Bauer, N; Caspani, M; Edelenbosch, O; Emmerling, J; Fragkos, P; Guivarch, C et al. (April 2021). "Exploring the possibility space: taking stock of the diverse capabilities and gaps in integrated assessment models". Environmental Research Letters 16 (5): 053006. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abe5d8. ISSN 1748-9326. Bibcode: 2021ERL....16e3006K.  open access
  41. ↑ Stern, Nicholas (26 October 2021). A time for action on climate change and a time for change in economics — Working paper 370. London, United Kingdom: Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment. https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/working-paper-370-Stern.pdf. Retrieved 2021-10-26. 

External links



Retrieved from "https://handwiki.org/wiki/index.php?title=Earth:Integrated_assessment_modelling&oldid=102884"