Earth:QuakeFinder

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QuakeFinder, LLC (QuakeFinder) was a company focused on developing magnetic field sensors (magnetometers) with a mission to save lives by forecasting earthquakes.[1] QuakeFinder operated as an independent company with controlling interest investment from Stellar Solutions, LLC,[2] until its closure in 2008.[3] The company's assets were acquired by Stellar Solutions which continued the research as a humanitarian project until 2023 when data gathering was terminated.[4] QuakeFinder teamed with five organizations in 2022 to publish ten years of earthquake monitoring results that reported "a modest signal 24-72 hours prior to earthquakes" for use in forecasts, but of insufficient accuracy to be used for predictions of earthquakes by time, location and size.[5]

In the 1970s, scientists were optimistic that a practical method to improve forecasting to the level of predicting earthquakes would soon be achieved. By the 1990s continuing failure led USGS scientists to question whether prediction was possible.[6] Extensive searches for possible earthquake precursors were not reliably identified across significant spatial and temporal scales as of 1997.[7] Based on the results of this research, early scientists were pessimistic and some maintained that earthquake prediction was inherently impossible.[8]

QuakeFinder deployed a network of sensor stations to detect the electromagnetic pulses the team believed precede major earthquakes.[9] The sensors were reported to have a range of approximately 10 miles (16 km) from the instrument to the source of the pulses.[10] As of 2016, the company reported 125 stations in California,[11] and their research colleague, Dr. Jorge Heraud (Pontifica Universidad Catolica del Peru) reported 10 sites in Peru.[12] Using these sensors, Dr. Heraud published that he had been able to triangulate pulses seen from multiple sites, in order to determine the origin of the pulses. Dr. Heraud reported that the pulses were seen beginning from 11 to 18 days before an impending earthquake, and could be used to determine the location and timing of future seismic events.[13][14]

Background

In 2010, QuakeFinder researchers said that they had observed ultra low frequency magnetic pulses emitted by the Earth near the 2007 magnitude 5.4 Alum Rock earthquake near San Jose, California, starting two weeks prior to the event.[15] Researchers from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) had previously attempted to study similar phenomena during the Parkfield earthquake (2007) experiment using an installation of seven (7) magnetometers that differed from the QuakeFinder magnetometers in terms of sensitivity, sample rate and spatial resolution. These researchers did not find evidence of electromagnetic earthquake precursors.[16]

QuakeFinder founder Tom Blier incorporated theory from Dr. Friedemann Freund which posited that slips along a fault activate charge carriers generating signal phenomena including electromagnetic pulses that can be detected with magnetometers.[17] Underground currents may also cause air-conductivity changes and ground heating. QuakeFinder reported that an infrared signature of the Alum Rock earthquake was detected by NASA's GOES weather satellite.[18]

QuakeFinder reported that the effects they studied are localized in time and space, and aimed to improve forecasting by "the time (within 1-2 weeks), location (within 20-40km) and magnitude (within ± 1 increment of Richter magnitude) of earthquake greater than M5.4".[19] This observation capability for forecasting was verified by QuakeFinder's 2022 reported results.[5]

See also

References

  1. ↑ "QuakeFinder » About" (in en-US). https://www.quakefinder.com/about/. 
  2. ↑ "Quakefinder Mission". https://www.stellarsolutions.com/humanitarian-r-d/. 
  3. ↑ "QuakeFinder » QuakeFinder History" (in en-US). https://www.quakefinder.com/about/quakefinder-history/. 
  4. ↑ "This firm spent big to see if 'earthquake lights' could warn of temblors. It didn't work" (in en-US). 2020-01-15. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-01-15/silicon-valley-firm-shutters-earthquake-forecasting-project. 
  5. ↑ 5.0 5.1 Heavlin, William D.; Kappler, Karl; Yang, Lusann; Fan, Minjie; Hickey, Jason; Lemon, James; MacLean, Laura; Bleier, Thomas et al. (2022). "Case-Control Study on a Decade of Ground-Based Magnetometers in California Reveals Modest Signal 24–72 hr Prior to Earthquakes" (in en). Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 127 (10). doi:10.1029/2022JB024109. ISSN 2169-9356. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022JB024109. 
  6. ↑ Geller et al. 1997, p. 1617; Geller 1997, §2.3, p. 427; Console 2001, p. 261.
  7. ↑ Geller 1997, Summary.
  8. ↑ Kagan 1997b; Geller 1997. See also Nature Debates; Uyeda, Nagao & Kamogawa 2009. "...at the present stage, the general view on short-term prediction is overly pessimistic. There are reasons for this pessimism because mere conventional seismological approach is not efficient for this aim. Overturning this situation is possible only through multi-disciplinary science. Despite fairly abundant circumstantial evidence, pre-seismic EM signals have not yet been adequately accepted as real physical quantities."
  9. ↑ John Upton (13 August 2011). "Pursuing the Grail of an Earthquake Predictor, but Facing Skeptics". The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/14/us/14bcquakefinder.html. 
  10. ↑ Lisa Sibley (25 March 2011). "QuakeFinder's mission: Detect quakes before they shake". Silicon Valley / San Jose Business Journal. American Cities Business Journals. http://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/print-edition/2011/03/25/quakefinder-mission-detect-quakes-before.html. 
  11. ↑ "Quakefinder Blog". 2016. https://www.quakefinder.com/thank-you-henry-dela-pena/. 
  12. ↑ Heraud, Jorge (2016). "presenter bio". Singularity University Summit. https://exponential.singularityu.org/summit/presenters/jorge-heraud/. 
  13. ↑ Heraud, J. A.; Centa, V. A.; Bleier, T. (1 December 2015). "Electromagnetic Precursors Leading to Triangulation of Future Earthquakes and Imaging of the Subduction Zone". AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts 32: NH32B–03. Bibcode: 2015AGUFMNH32B..03H. 
  14. ↑ Enriquez, Alberto (2015). "Earthquake-prediction technology deserves to be taken seriously (OPINION)". OregonLive.com. http://www.oregonlive.com/opinion/index.ssf/2015/12/earthquake-prediction_technolo.html. 
  15. ↑ Bleier, T.; Dunson, C. (2010). "Correlation of pre-earthquake electromagnetic signals with laboratory and field rock experiments". Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 10 (9): 1965–1975. doi:10.5194/nhess-10-1965-2010. Bibcode: 2010NHESS..10.1965B. http://www.quakefinder.com/research/pdf/Correlation-of-pre-earthquake.pdf. Retrieved 30 September 2011. 
  16. ↑ "The Parkfield, California Earthquake Experiment". United States Geological Survey. https://earthquake.usgs.gov/research/parkfield/index.php.  Public Domain This article incorporates text from this source, which is in the public domain.
  17. ↑ Freund, F. T.; Takeuchi, A.; Lau, B. W. (2006). "Electric currents streaming out of stressed igneous rocks – A step towards understanding pre-earthquake low frequency EM emissions". Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C 31 (4–9): 389–396. doi:10.1016/j.pce.2006.02.027. Bibcode: 2006PCE....31..389F. https://zenodo.org/record/1259299. 
  18. ↑ Quakefinder (20 June 2009). "QuakeFinder Detects Quake: Pre-Quake Signatures Detected by QuakeFinder and NASA". SpaceRef.com. http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=28493. 
  19. ↑ Bleier, T. E.; Dunson, C.; Roth, S.; Heraud, J.; Freund, F. T.; Dahlgren, R.; Bryant, N.; Bambery, R. et al. (December 2010). "Current progress in using multiple electromagnetic indicators to determine location, time, and magnitude of earthquakes in California and Peru". AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts (American Geophysical Union) 2010: NH24A–02. abstract #NH24A-02. Bibcode: 2010AGUFMNH24A..02B. 

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Further reading



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