Finance:Beneish M-score
The Beneish model is a statistical model that uses financial ratios calculated with accounting data of a specific company in order to check if it is likely (high probability) that the reported earnings of the company have been manipulated.
How to calculate
The Beneish M-score is calculated using 8 variables (financial ratios):[1][2]
- Days Sales in Receivables Index
(DSRI) DSRI = (Net Receivablest / Salest) / (Net Receivablest-1 / Salest-1)
- Gross Margin Index (GMI)
GMI = [(Salest-1 - COGSt-1) / Salest-1] / [(Salest - COGSt) / Salest]
- Asset Quality Index (AQI)
AQI = [1 - (Current Assetst + PP&Et + Securitiest) / Total Assetst] / [1 - ((Current Assetst-1 + PP&Et-1 + Securitiest-1) / Total Assetst-1)]
- Sales Growth Index (SGI)
SGI = Salest / Salest-1
- Depreciation Index (DEPI)
DEPI = (Depreciationt-1/ (PP&Et-1 + Depreciationt-1)) / (Depreciationt / (PP&Et + Depreciationt))
- Sales General and Administrative Expenses Index (SGAI)
SGAI = (SG&A Expenset / Salest) / (SG&A Expenset-1 / Salest-1)
- Leverage Index (LVGI)
LVGI = [(Current Liabilitiest + Total Long Term Debtt) / Total Assetst] / [(Current Liabilitiest-1 + Total Long Term Debtt-1) / Total Assetst-1]
- Total Accruals to Total Assets (TATA)
TATA = (Income from Continuing Operationst - Cash Flows from Operationst) / Total Assetst
The formula to calculate the M-score is:[1]
- M-score = −4.84 + 0.92 × DSRI + 0.528 × GMI + 0.404 × AQI + 0.892 × SGI + 0.115 × DEPI −0.172 × SGAI + 4.679 × TATA − 0.327 × LVGI
How to interpret
The threshold value is -1.78 for the model whose coefficients are reported above. (see Beneish 1999, Beneish, Lee, and Nichols 2013, and Beneish and Vorst 2020).
- If M-score is less than -1.78, the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. For example, an M-score value of -2.50 suggests a low likelihood of manipulation.
- If M-score is greater than −1.78, the company is likely to be a manipulator. For example, an M-score value of -1.50 suggests a high likelihood of manipulation.
Aggregate recession predictor
A 2023 research paper will use an aggregate score of many companies to predict recessions. It finds that the score in early 2023 is the highest in some 40 years.[3][4]
Important notices
- Beneish M-score is a probabilistic model, so it cannot detect companies that manipulate their earnings with 100% accuracy.
- Financial institutions were excluded from the sample in Beneish paper when calculating M-score since these institutions make money through different routes. Sales and receivables which are two main ingredients that go into the Beneish formula are not used when analyzing a financial institution.
Example of successful application
Enron Corporation was correctly identified 1998 as an earnings manipulator by students from Cornell University using M-score.[5][6] Noticeably, Wall Street financial analysts[who?] were still recommending to buy Enron shares at that[which?] point in time.[citation needed]
Further reading on financial statement manipulation
- A sequence of articles on Alpha Architect blog.[7][8][9]
- An article on Investopedia about different types of financial statement manipulation ("smoke and mirrors", "elder abuse", "fleeing town", and others).[10]
See also
- Data analysis techniques for fraud detection
- Benford's law
- Piotroski F-score
- Ohlson O-score
- Altman Z-score
References
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 Messod D. Beneish. "The Detection of Earnings Manipulation". https://ru.scribd.com/doc/33484680/The-Detection-of-Earnings-Manipulation-Messod-D-Beneish.
- ↑ "Beneish M Score Definition". https://ycharts.com/glossary/terms/beneish_m_score.
- ↑ Beneish, Messod D.; Farber, David B.; Glendening, Matthew; Shaw, Kenneth W. (2023). "Aggregate Financial Misreporting and the Predictability of U.S. Recessions and GDP Growth". The Accounting Review, Vol. 98, No. 5, September 2023 98 (5): 129–159. doi:10.2308/TAR-2021-0160. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3790566.
- ↑ Zumbrun, Josh (2023-03-24). "Accounting-Fraud Indicator Signals Coming Economic Trouble" (in en-US). Wall Street Journal. ISSN 0099-9660. https://www.wsj.com/articles/accounting-fraud-indicator-signals-coming-economic-trouble-506568a0.
- ↑ "Business School Students Caught Enron Early" (in en-US). 2007-01-29. https://cornellsun.com/2007/01/29/business-school-students-caught-enron-early/.
- ↑ "Cornell Research Report on Enron 1998" (in en). https://pdfslide.net/documents/cornell-research-report-on-enron-1998.html.
- ↑ "Attention Value Investors: How to Predict Accounting Trickery". 2015-04-20. https://alphaarchitect.com/2015/04/attention-value-investors-how-to-predict-accounting-trickery/.
- ↑ "The Accrual Anomaly For Dummies". 2011-09-07. https://alphaarchitect.com/2011/09/the-accrual-anomaly-for-dummies/.
- ↑ "Managing the Risks of Permanent Capital Impairment (Part 1 of 4)". 2012-06-25. https://alphaarchitect.com/2012/06/managing-the-risks-of-permanent-capital-impairment-part-1-of-4/.
- ↑ Beattie, Andrew (2006-11-26). "Common Clues Of Financial Statement Manipulation". Investopedia. http://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/statementmanipulation.asp.
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