Finance:Iowa Electronic Markets
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Short description: Not-for-profit group of futures markets
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The Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) are a group of real-money prediction markets/futures markets operated by the University of Iowa Tippie College of Business. Unlike normal futures markets, the IEM is not-for-profit; the markets are run for educational and research purposes.
Overview
 Iowa Electronic Markets on YouTube |
The IEM has often been used to predict the results of political elections with a greater accuracy than traditional polls.[1][2][3][4] In a study, 964 election polls were compared with the five US presidential elections from 1988 to 2004. Berg et al. (2008) showed that the Iowa Electronic Markets topped the polls 74% of the time.[5] In the 2008 election the IEM predicted the final vote count to within half a percentage point.[6]
Rules and limits
See also
- The Wisdom of Crowds
- NewsFutures
- Intrade
- TradeSports
- PredictIt
References
- ↑ IEM Accuracy Compared to Polls Accessed: 10/26/2012
- ↑ Surowiecki, James. The Wisdom of Crowds: How the Many Are Smarter than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations. Doubleday, 2004. p. 19
- ↑ "Previous Market Performance". https://tippie.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/media/previous.html.
- ↑ IEM and Poll Accuracy, 2008 Presidential Race Accessed: 10/26/2012
- ↑ "Prediction Market Accuracy in the Long Run". http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/faculty/trietz/papers/long%20run%20accuracy.pdf.
- ↑ uimediaproduction (16 March 2009). "Iowa Electronic Markets". https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1NhV_KhgoE.
Further reading
- Surowiecki, James (2004). The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations Little, Brown ISBN 0-316-86173-1
- Thompson, Donald N. (2012). Oracles: How Prediction Markets Turn Employees into Visionaries Harvard Business Review Press ISBN 978-1-4221-8317-5
External links
- The Iowa Electronic Markets website
- A Market for Playing the 2 Candidates, (about the IPSM) The New York Times, 1992
- The "Election Futures Market": More Accurate Than Polls?, Businessweek, 1996
- Porkbellies and Politics, TheStreet.com, 2000
- Bookies seen outbidding election polls: Betting sites better at predicting winner, economists claim, MSNBC, 2004
- The Iowa Electronic Markets are still going for Bush, Salon.com, 2004
- Iowa 'futures' show Republican weakness, CNN, 2006
- Graphs for 2008 US Presidential Election Markets
- PollyVote - Forecasting the U.S. Presidential Election
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