Social:Retirement slump

From HandWiki

Retirement slump refers to the average falloff in the party's vote when the incumbent retires. A positive value of the sophomore surge represents an incumbency advantage. The retirement slump should be positive for an incumbency advantage to exist.[1]

Sophomore surge is the average vote gain for freshman winners in election 1 who run again in election 2. Retirement slump is the average vote loss for the parties whose candidates won election 1 and did not run in election 2.[2]

When a Sophomore surge and a Retirement slump combine, it is what is called a slurge.

References

  1. ↑ Uppal, Yogesh (November 15, 2005). "Estimation of the Incumbency Effects in the US State Legislatures: A Quasi-Experimental approach". https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/8575/1/MPRA_paper_8575.pdf. 
  2. ↑ Gelman, Andrew; King, Gary (1990). "Estimating Incumbency Advantage without Bias". American Journal of Political Science 34 (4): 1142–1164. doi:10.2307/2111475. ISSN 0092-5853. https://gking.harvard.edu/files/inc.pdf. 



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