Unsolved:Three Gorges Dam collapse controversy

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Partial map of major population centers along the Yangtze river; from left to right: Chongqing, the Three Gorges Dam, Wuhan, Nanjing and Shanghai. According to proponents of the collapse theory such as Wang Weiluo, the cities downstream from the Three Gorges Dam may be destroyed from a potential collapse scenario.[1]

A number of controversial theories have been popularized following the opening date of the Three Gorges dam[clarification needed] and have spread via social media; according to proponents of such theories, the Three Gorges dam is undergoing structural deformation and is on the verge of breaking and flooding the lower Yangtze region, potentially devastating the area and creating an ecological disaster.[2] Although the Chinese government has denied such claims as unfounded rumor,[3][4] proponents of the theory allege a campaign of silencing and have persisted in warning about an impending collapse.[5][1][6]

Origins

As of 2020, the exact time when theories related to a potential collapse the Three Gorges Dam have begun to spread online is not yet known; such allegations have been covered in the Chinese-speaking media (including from mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan) starting from 2019,[7][8][9][10] and again in 2020,[9][5] although one report alleges that theories about the collapse of the Three Gorges Dam have been circulating online for at least ten years before.[2]

Evidence

Satellite imagery found on Google Maps has been cited by proponents of the theory, who claim that a clear deformation of the main dam can be seen on such images.[2] According to an employee of the China Three Gorges Corporation (which operates the dam), however, such images are the result of artifacts introduced by the process Google Maps displays satellite images on its website, citing as evidence an older image found on the site between 2005 and 2008 that apparently showed more deformation (which would be unlikely if the deformation shown in the images are real).[11]

According to a Germany -based hydraulic engineer, Wang Weiluo, who has criticized the Three Gorges Dam project for years, a number of financial abuse by related governmental bureaucrats and rushed construction work have led to structural weaknesses that may cause the dam to fail; nevertheless, Wang denies that a deformation of the kind that proponents of the theory online have alleged based on satellite imagery is possible. According to Wang, since the dam is constructed from individual blocks of varying height, any deformation of the dam would not be “elastic” like that shown in such images. Wang claims that, although he believes the dam to be structurally unsound, it is not structural deformation, but rather leakages in the foundation that he is most concerned about.[12] Wang does not deny, however, that such leakages can lead to a collapse of the dam, and even went as far as to recommend an evacuation of the lower Yangtze region in 2020.[1] Although not specifically responding to Wang's latest claims, Zhang Boting, the president of the China Society for Hydropower Engineering, had written in 2019 that Wang has been “fabricating unsupported rumor” about the dam beginning from 2000, and argued that the latter is unqualified to be a hydraulic engineer.[13]

In June 2020, the Ministry of Water Resources of the People's Republic of China officially warned of possible floods in the lower Yangtze region due to strong rainfall that summer;[14] moreover, Ye Jianchun, head of the Ministry of Water Resources, took the rare step of warning of a possible "black swan event" without specifically referring to the Three Gorges Dam.[2] These warnings have been interpreted as evidence of an impending overflow or collapse of the Three Gorges Dam.[9] Guo Xun, a research fellow the Institute of Engineering Mechanics at the China Earthquake Administration in Beijing, denied such rumors and claimed that "the dam is capable of holding far larger inflows than it is seeing now."[3]

Potential impact

The Three Gorges dam, located in Hubei province, has a number of major population centers located downstream, including Shanghai, the most populous metropolitan area in China; proponents of the theory believe that a failure of the dam will lead to vast areas in these cities being flooded and lead to large numbers of casualties.[1]

Nevertheless, due to the military significance of the installation and the potential scenario of an attack on it during wartime, the Ministry of Water Resources had created modelling for a potential nuclear attack on the Three Gorges Dam between 1978 and 1988;[15][16] the ministry had concluded that a dam failure would not lead to catastrophic impact of the population living downstream, and it reiterated this assessment in 2011.[17]

References

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 "三峽大壩若潰堤…學者驚揭洪水直衝這" (in Zh-hant). Yahoo雅虎奇摩新闻，来源：三立新聞網. 2020-06-22. https://tw.news.yahoo.com/%E4%B8%89%E5%B3%BD%E5%A4%A7%E5%A3%A9%E8%8B%A5%E6%BD%B0%E5%A0%A4-%E5%AD%B8%E8%80%85%E9%A9%9A%E6%8F%AD%E6%B4%AA%E6%B0%B4%E7%9B%B4%E8%A1%9D%E9%80%99-081511931.html. Retrieved 2020-06-26. 
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 "三峽大壩潰堤消息瘋傳！日本人「真實反應」曝 台人跪了" (in Zh-hk). 編輯：張嘉哲. Yahoo雅虎香港. 23 June 2020. https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/news/%E4%B8%89%E5%B3%BD%E5%A4%A7%E5%A3%A9%E6%BD%B0%E5%A0%A4%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF%E7%98%8B%E5%82%B3-%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E4%BA%BA-%E7%9C%9F%E5%AF%A6%E5%8F%8D%E6%87%89-%E6%9B%9D-%E5%8F%B0%E4%BA%BA%E8%B7%AA%E4%BA%86-031105279.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS5oay8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAADB6bKT_KDJQzthC9gVVEiPiUwYR5rfItRZu73BGEjDnchtPKb0rrkVfP0exhmXi7B2Wxud4f6CXaaKgCFXQCXru6Wl5H5pXilOe9DN1jKizmgq_caJT87jMdAUU_xRPgEn90WuI2wznvErYyLdK6_tKl2a9LPSeKMaCFcoQgkEq. Retrieved 26 June 2020. 
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 Wan, Lin (22 June 2020). "Three Gorges Dam ‘not at risk of collapse,’ safe for heavy rainfall: experts". Global Times. https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1192443.shtml. Retrieved 28 June 2020. 
  4. ↑ Burke, Kelly (23 June 2020). "China denies millions of lives at risk as catastrophic flooding threatens Three Gorges Dam". 7news.com.au. https://7news.com.au/news/disaster-and-emergency/china-denies-millions-of-lives-at-risks-as-catastrophic-flooding-threatens-three-gorges-dam-c-1119460. Retrieved 28 June 2020. 
  5. ↑ 5.0 5.1 "中國專家警告「長江三峽大壩根本無法防洪」：若潰堤大水直沖上海" (in Zh-hant). 綜合報導：楊清緣. 新頭殼newtalk. 2020-06-22. https://newtalk.tw/news/view/2020-06-22/424802. Retrieved 2020-06-26. 
  6. ↑ Cheng, Ching-Tse (22 June 2020). "Expert warns China's Three Gorges Dam in danger of collapse". Taiwan News. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3951673. Retrieved 28 June 2020. 
  7. ↑ "Three Gorges Dam is safe, say China officials, dismissing online rumors". Reuters. 9 July 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-hydropower-threegorges/three-gorges-dam-is-safe-say-china-officials-dismissing-online-rumors-idUSKCN1U40QB. Retrieved 28 June 2020. 
  8. ↑ Yan, Alice (9 July 2019). "‘No problem at all’ with China’s Three Gorges Dam as warping rumours denied". South China Morning Post. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3017927/no-problem-all-chinas-three-gorges-dam-warping-rumours-denied. Retrieved 28 June 2020. 
  9. ↑ 9.0 9.1 9.2 黃梅茹 (2020-06-23). "重慶遇80年最大洪水／中國昔以「彈性說」回應三峽大壩變形，官員今示警「潰堤」考驗" (in Zh-hant). 太报网站. https://www.taisounds.com/w/TaiSounds/society_20062311225711040. Retrieved 2020-06-26. 
  10. ↑ "三峡大坝变形了？这是谣言！" (in Zh-hans). 京报网，来源：北京晚报. 2019-07-10. http://bjwb.bjd.com.cn/html/2019-07/10/content_11894977.htm. Retrieved 2020-06-26. 
  11. ↑ 彭琤琳 (2019-07-03). "三峽大壩變形？　三峽集團：運行正常　Google衛星圖有偏差" (in Zh-hant). 香港01网站，来源：澎湃新闻. https://www.hk01.com/%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B/347769/%E4%B8%89%E5%B3%BD%E5%A4%A7%E5%A3%A9%E8%AE%8A%E5%BD%A2-%E4%B8%89%E5%B3%BD%E9%9B%86%E5%9C%98-%E9%81%8B%E8%A1%8C%E6%AD%A3%E5%B8%B8-google%E8%A1%9B%E6%98%9F%E5%9C%96%E6%9C%89%E5%81%8F%E5%B7%AE. Retrieved 2020-06-26. 
  12. ↑ 王維洛 (12 September 2019). "三峽大壩存在的嚴重安全技術問題和產生問題的根本原因" (in zh-tw). RFI. http://www.rfi.fr/tw/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B/20190912-%E4%B8%89%E5%B3%BD%E5%A4%A7%E5%A3%A9%E5%AD%98%E5%9C%A8%E7%9A%84%E5%9A%B4%E9%87%8D%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%8A%80%E8%A1%93%E5%95%8F%E9%A1%8C%E5%92%8C%E7%94%A2%E7%94%9F%E5%95%8F%E9%A1%8C%E7%9A%84%E6%A0%B9%E6%9C%AC%E5%8E%9F%E5%9B%A0. Retrieved 28 June 2020. 
  13. ↑ "张博庭：三峡工程对上海的影响分析" (in Zh-hans). 中国水力发电工程学会网站. 2014-09-20. http://www.hydropower.org.cn/showNewsDetail.asp?nsId=14317. Retrieved 2020-06-27. 
  14. ↑ "水利部：今年长江中下游汛情形势不容乐观" (in Zh-hans). 央视网. 2020-06-22. https://tv.cctv.com/2020/06/22/VIDE48ak4wCPxS8Sr8RAXNBW200622.shtml?spm=C52448022284.P7Q2qNdQU56x.0.0. Retrieved 2020-06-26. 
  15. ↑ "三峡工程不怕战争（上）" (in Zh-hans). 央视网. http://www.cntv.cn/lm/803/611/72504.html. Retrieved 2020-06-26. 
  16. ↑ 唐宜贵、潘勤 (2003-05-28). "三峡到底怕不怕战争？专家称大坝具较强抗战能力" (in Zh-hans). 新浪网，来源：中新湖北网. http://mil.news.sina.com.cn/2003-05-28/128686.html. Retrieved 2020-06-26. 
  17. ↑ "水利部官员：三峡战时溃坝不会致下游毁灭性灾害" (in Zh-hans). 责任编辑：黄杨. 华夏经纬网，来源：人民日报. 2011-06-11. http://www.huaxia.com/xw/dlxw/2011/06/2449675.html. Retrieved 2020-06-26. 




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