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{{Use New Zealand English|date=October 2025}}
{{Short description|Ongoing theorised stock market bubble}}

{{Artificial intelligence}}

The '''AI bubble''' is an ongoing theorised [[Finance:Stock market bubble|stock market bubble]], bearing similarities to the [[Dot-com bubble]], occurring during the [[AI boom]], an ongoing period of rapid progression in [[Artificial intelligence|artificial intelligence]] (AI) which has impacted the broader economy.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Aspan |first1=Maria |title=AI and Nvidia have been bright spots in an uncertain economy, but there are doubts now |url=https://www.npr.org/2025/08/30/g-s1-86377/ai-nvidia-economy-stocks |work=NPR |date=30 August 2025 |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last1=De Vynck |first1=Gerrit |title=The AI spending boom could have real consequences for the U.S. economy |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2025/08/04/big-tech-ai-spending-economy/ |newspaper=The Washington Post |date=4 August 2025 |archive-url=https://archive.today/20250826191316/https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2025/08/04/big-tech-ai-spending-economy/ |archive-date=26 Aug 2025}}</ref><ref>{{cite news |last1=DePillis |first1=Lydia |title=The A.I. Spending Frenzy Is Propping Up the Real Economy, Too |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/27/business/economy/ai-investment-economic-growth.html |work=The New York Times |date=August 27, 2025 |archive-url=https://archive.today/20250908030208/https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/27/business/economy/ai-investment-economic-growth.html |archive-date=8 September 2025}}</ref> Speculation about an AI-driven stock market bubble largely originates from concerns of overvaluations of leading AI tech firms, which are involved in a circular flow of investments that are believed to be artificially inflating their values.

== Background ==
{{Excerpt|AI boom|only=paragraph}}

== Statistics ==

[[File:20250202 "AI" (search term) on Google Trends.svg|thumb|The number of Google searches for the term "AI" accelerated.]]
In late January 2025, the unexpectedly successful launch of the Chinese-made chatbot DeepSeek resulted in concerns about a possible AI bubble. The stock prices of many AI companies dropped, such as [[Company:Nvidia|Nvidia]]'s shares dropping 17% in one day. Nvidia's share price recovered 8.8% the following day.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2025-01-28 |title=Nvidia and Microsoft shares steady after DeepSeek AI app shock |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gpq01rvd4o |access-date=2025-08-26 |website=www.bbc.com |language=en-GB}}</ref> In August 2025, a report by the [[Organization:Massachusetts Institute of Technology|Massachusetts Institute of Technology]] stated "despite US$30–40bn in enterprise investment into Gen[erative]AI, [...] 95%  of organisations are getting zero return".<ref name=":1">{{Cite web |last=Kahn |first=Jeremy |title=An MIT report that 95% of AI pilots fail spooked investors. But it's the reason why those pilots failed that should make the C-suite anxious |url=https://fortune.com/2025/08/21/an-mit-report-that-95-of-ai-pilots-fail-spooked-investors-but-the-reason-why-those-pilots-failed-is-what-should-make-the-c-suite-anxious/ |access-date=2025-08-26 |website=Fortune |language=en}}</ref> Spending from US [[Finance:Megacap stock|mega caps]] is expected to reach $1.1 trillion between 2026 and 2029, and total AI spending is expected to surpass $1.6 trillion.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Aquino |first=Kristine |date=10 October 2025 |title=Companies overpaying for AI add to stock market bubble risks, survey shows |url=https://financialpost.com/investing/companies-overpaying-ai-stock-market-bubble-survey |access-date=10 October 2025 |website=Financial Post}}</ref>

Due to the growing demand for computer chips to sustain AI technologies, Nvidia became the highest valued company in the world and the first to ever have reached a market value of $4 trillion in July. The figure had quadrupled since 2023 when it surpassed $1 trillion. The company's value made up roughly 7.3% of the S&P 500, which hit an all-time high.<ref name=":5">{{cite news |author1=Charlotte Edwards |title=Nvidia becomes world's first $4tn company |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8j13m74lklo |date=9 July 2025}}</ref><ref name=":6">{{cite news |title=Nvidia becomes first company to reach $4tn in market value |url=https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/jul/09/nvidia-first-company-4-trillion}}</ref> In October 2025, the company's value grew beyond $5 trillion,<ref>{{cite news |title=Nvidia hits $5 trillion valuation as AI boom powers meteoric rise |url=https://www.reuters.com/business/nvidia-poised-record-5-trillion-market-valuation-2025-10-29/}}</ref> rising higher than the gdp of every country except for the US and China according to data from the [[Organization:World Bank|World Bank]]. Over the year 2025, AI related enterprises accounted for roughly 80% of gains in the American stock market. Some sceptics warned that the rapid rise of AI tech firms may be the result of excessive financial engineering.<ref>{{cite news |title=Nvidia hits new milestone as world's first $5tn company |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp8e970vn5vo |date=29 October 2025}}</ref>

Microsoft disclosed that it had spent almost $35 billion on AI infrastructure in the three months leading up to the end of September. In October, it became the second most valuable company in the world largely due to its 27% stake in OpenAI. While seeing increases in revenue by 18%, and in net income by 12%, share values dropped by 4% in after-hours trading amid investors' concerns about the possible costs of sustaining the AI boom.<ref name=":4">{{cite news |author1=Connor Sephton |title=Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta results overshadowed by growing fears of AI bubble |url=https://news.sky.com/story/microsoft-alphabet-and-meta-results-overshadowed-by-growing-fears-of-ai-bubble-13460474 |date=30 October 2025}}</ref>

In late 2025, 30% of the US S&P 500 and 20% of the MSCI World Index was solely held up by the 5 largest companies, which was the greatest concentration in half a century, and share valuations were reportedly the most stretched since the dot-com bubble.<ref name=":3">{{cite news |title=Bank of England warns of 'sharp correction' for markets if AI bubble bursts - and IMF agrees |url=https://news.sky.com/story/bank-of-england-warns-of-sharp-correction-for-markets-if-ai-bubble-bursts-13446896}}</ref><ref name=":8">{{cite news |title=Experts warn AI could trigger next global stock market crash — here's what might happen |url=https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/experts-warn-ai-could-trigger-next-global-stock-market-crash-heres-what-might-happen/articleshow/124611839.cms?from=mdr}}</ref> Experts warned that AI companies were extremely overvalued, with the S&P 500 trading at 23 times forward earnings, and the FTSE Index trading at 14 times, showing how expensive the US market had become. The Case-Shiller price-to-earnings ratio for the US market also exceeded 40 for the first time since the dot-com crash.<ref name=":8"></ref>

== Speculation ==
Sam Altman, CEO of [[Company:OpenAI|OpenAI]] and creator of [[Software:ChatGPT|ChatGPT]] stated in 2025 that he believed that an AI bubble is ongoing.<ref name=":0">{{Cite news |date=19 August 2025 |title=Wall Street isn't worried about an AI bubble. Sam Altman is |url=https://fortune.com/2025/08/19/wall-street-ai-bubble-sam-altman/ |access-date=26 August 2025 |work=Fortune}}</ref> In early 2025, Bridgewater Associates co-investment officer Ray Dalio said that the current levels of investment in AI is "very similar" to the [[Dot-com bubble|dot-com bubble]].<ref name=":0" />

In September 2025, the ''Australian Financial Review'' said that "If we really are in another share-market bubble, it's surely the most anticipated example in history."<ref>{{cite news |date=2025-09-26 |url=https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/close-to-full-ponzi-did-nvidia-s-openai-deal-shift-thinking-20250926-p5my66 |url-access=subscription |access-date=2025-09-29 |title='Close to full ponzi': What big fundies are doing as markets flash red |work=Australian Financial Review}}</ref> In October of that year, Jamie Dimon said he thinks "AI is real" but said he believes some money invested now will be wasted. He also said  there is a higher chance of a meaningful drop in stocks over the following two years than the market was reflecting.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Towfighi |first=John |date=2025-10-09 |title=Jamie Dimon is worried about a stock market correction {{!}} CNN Business |url=https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/09/investing/us-stock-market-ai-bubble-concerns |access-date=2025-10-12 |website=CNN |language=en}}</ref>

Jamie Dimon, head of JP Morgan, the largest bank in the US, warned that an AI-driven stock crash could result in a lot of invested money being lost, although he acknowledged that AI "[would] pay off […] just like cars in total paid off, and TVs in total paid off, but most people involved in them didn't do well." However, he further stated on AI that "the level of uncertainty should be higher in most people's minds."<ref name=":9">{{cite news |title=America's top banker sounds warning on US stock market fall |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg5ej03p604o |date=9 October 2025}}</ref>

=== Circular financing ===

[[File:2025 AI Bubble Speculation 2.png|thumb|Bubble [[graphics]] depicting circular investments by AI companies became popular in October 2025.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Yip |first=Jaures |date=2025-10-21 |title=Are we in an AI bubble? Here's what analysts and experts are saying |url=https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/21/are-we-in-an-ai-bubble.html |access-date=2025-10-28 |website=CNBC |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=2025-10-06 |title=The AI boom's reliance on circular deals is raising fears of a bubble |url=https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/openai-nvidia-amd-deals-risks-rcna234806 |access-date=2025-10-28 |website=NBC News |language=en}}</ref> Some speculators have questioned the investment structure of the AI industry due to profitability and [[Finance:Cash flow|cash flow]] issues for major AI companies.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Weil |first=Jonathan |title=Is the Flurry of Circular AI Deals a Win-Win—or Sign of a Bubble? |url=https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/is-the-flurry-of-circular-ai-deals-a-win-win-or-sign-of-a-bubble/ar-AA1OXDBJ |website=Wall Street Journal}}</ref>]]

Concerns were raised that leading AI tech firms were using circular financing and investment to artificially boost their valuations. In September, Nvidia made a $100 billion investment into OpenAI, expanding the pre-existing stake that it held in the company. This agreement was made on the expectation that OpenAI would power additional datacentres using the chips that it had been buying from Nvidia, establishing a circular flow of money.<ref name=":7">{{cite news |title='It's going to be really bad': Fears over AI bubble bursting grow in Silicon Valley |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz69qy760weo |date=11 October 2025}}</ref>

In October, OpenAI purchased billions of dollars worth of electronics from [[Engineering:AMD|AMD]], a rival of Nvidia, to supply its development of AI in an agreement that made it one of the largest shareholders in the company. Microsoft also held a large stake in OpenAI, and Oracle corporation, a computing company, also entered into a $300 billion deal with the company.<ref name=":7"></ref>

===Bank of England statement===

The Bank of England warned of the growing risks of a global market correction due to a possible overvaluation of leading AI tech firms in the stock market, such as OpenAI which more than tripled its value from $157 billion in October 2024 to $500 billion the following year. These valuations, they claimed, could be further harmed if the infrastructure requirements for sustaining the technology were too high to be met. They added that investors were not properly cautioned with the risks of a stock market crash were AI to fall short of market expectations.<ref name=":2">{{cite news |title=Bank of England warns of growing risk that AI bubble could burst |url=https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/oct/08/bank-of-england-warns-of-growing-risk-that-ai-bubble-could-burst |date=8 October 2025}}</ref> 

The [[Organization:International Monetary Fund|International Monetary Fund]] agreed with and reinforced the bank's claims. Kristalina Georgieva, a Bulgarian economist and the 12th managing director of the IMF, also drew comparisons to the dot-com bubble of 2001, highlighting that a market correction could stunt global growth and weaken the economies of developing countries.<ref name=":3"></ref>

== Opposing views ==
A [[Company:Goldman Sachs|Goldman Sachs]] chief equity strategist believes the rapid increase in stock valuations are likely justified by powerful and sustained profit growth. Goldman also noted that valuations for the large US growth stocks that led the market higher in the bull market since October 2022 are modest compared to the dot-com bubble.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Mills |first=Madison |date=2025-10-09 |title=Goldman Sachs says we're not in an AI bubble (yet) |url=https://www.axios.com/2025/10/09/ai-bubble-stock-market |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20251010210546/https://www.axios.com/2025/10/09/ai-bubble-stock-market |archive-date=2025-10-10 |access-date=2025-10-12 |website=Axios |language=en}}</ref> 

[[Company:Morgan Stanley|Morgan Stanley]] pointed out that the median cash flow for the top 500 companies in the US is roughly triple what it was in 1999 and that firms margin profiles are much more robust now.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Morgan Stanley believes AI bubble fears are 'misplaced' as tech stocks waver today |url=https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-sp500-nasdaq-hold-record-dow-near-peak-gold-dips-powell-speech/card/morgan-stanley-believes-ai-bubble-fears-are-misplaced-as-tech-stocks-waver-today-l7Bi3kUd71oRlUT68fj2 |access-date=2025-10-12 |website=MarketWatch |language=EN-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |last=Klebanov |first=BySam |title=Is there an AI bubble or not? |url=https://www.morningbrew.com/stories/2025/10/10/is-there-an-ai-bubble-or-not |access-date=2025-10-12 |website=Morning Brew |language=en-us}}</ref>

Current US chair of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell has stated that AI differs from other technology bubbles like the dot-com bubble in that the corporations behind it are generating large amounts of revenue and that investment into AI datacenters is generating large amounts of economic growth.<ref>{{Cite web |title=Powell says AI is different from dotcom bubble and is major source of economic growth |url=https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/29/powell-says-ai-different-from-dotcom-bubble-major-source-gdp-growth.html |access-date=2025-10-31 |website=CNBC |language=EN-US}}</ref>

== See also ==
* {{Annotated link|Cryptocurrency bubble}}
* {{Annotated link|Dot com bubble|Dot-com bubble}}
* {{Annotated link|AI boom}}

== References ==
{{Reflist}}

[[Category:History of artificial intelligence]]

{{Sourceattribution|AI bubble}}