View source for Philosophy:Expectation (epistemic)

{{Short description|Anticipation that a future event or consequence is likely}}
[[File:"Mon han dog ikke skulle komme?".jpg|thumb|"Surely he will come?". Painting by Christen Dalsgaard. From the Hirschsprung Collection, Denmark.]]
In the case of [[Physics:Uncertainty|uncertainty]], '''expectation''' is what is considered the most likely to happen. An expectation, which is a [[Philosophy:Belief|belief]] that is centered on the [[Physics:Future|future]], may or may not be realistic. A less advantageous result gives rise to the [[Philosophy:Emotion|emotion]] of disappointment. If something happens that is not at all expected, it is a [[Biology:Surprise (emotion)|surprise]]. An expectation about the behavior or performance of another person, expressed to that person, may have the nature of a strong request, or an order; this kind of expectation is called a [[Philosophy:Social norm|social norm]]. The degree to which something is expected to be true can be expressed using [[Fuzzy logic|fuzzy logic]]. Anticipation is the emotion corresponding to expectation.

==Expectations of well-being==
Richard Lazarus asserts that people become accustomed to positive or negative life experiences which lead to favorable or unfavorable expectations of their present and near-future circumstances. Lazarus notes the widely accepted philosophical principle that "happiness depends on the background psychological status of the person...and cannot be well predicted without reference to one's expectations."<ref name=Lazarus>{{cite book |last=Lazarus |first=Richard |title=Emotion and Adaptation |location=New York |publisher=Oxford University Press |year=1991 |isbn=978-0-19-506994-5 }}</ref>

With regard to happiness or unhappiness, Lazarus notes that objective conditions of life are those of hardship and deprivation often make a positive assessment of their well-being," while "people who are objectively well off...often make a negative assessment of their well-being." Lazarus argues that "the most sensible explanation of this apparent paradox is that people...develop favorable or unfavorable ''expectations''" that guide such assessments.<ref name=Lazarus/>

===Response-Expectancies===
Irving Kirsch, a renowned psychological researcher, writes about "response-expectancies" which are: expectations about non-[[Philosophy:Volition (psychology)|volitional]] responses. For example, science commonly takes into account "[[Medicine:Placebo|placebo]]-effects" when testing for new drugs, against subjects expectations of those drugs: for example, if you expect to receive a drug that may help with depression, and you feel better after taking it, but the drug is just a salt-tablet (better known as a [[Medicine:Placebo|placebo]]), then the benefit of feeling better (i.e. your non-volitional response), would be based on your expectations rather than any properties of the placebo (i.e. the salt-tablet).<ref>{{Cite book |last=Kirsch |first=Irving |title=How expectancies shape experience |publisher=American Psychological Association. |year=1999}}</ref>

==Expectations impact on beliefs==
Sociologist [[Biography:Robert K. Merton|Robert K. Merton]] wrote that a person's expectation is directly linked to [[Self-fulfilling prophecy|self-fulfilling prophecy]]. Whether or not such an expectation is truthful or not, has little or no effect on the outcome. If a person believes what they are told or convinces himself/herself of the fact, chances are this person will see the expectation to its inevitable conclusion. There is an inherent danger in this kind of labeling especially for the educator. Since children are easily convinced of certain tenets especially when told to them by an authority figure like a parent or teacher, they may believe whatever is taught to them even if what is taught has no factual basis. If the student or child were to act on false information, certain positive or negative [[Social:Unintended consequences|unintended consequences]] could result. If overly positive or elevated expectations were used to describe or manipulate a person's [[Philosophy:Self-image|self-image]] and execution falls short, the results could be a total reversal of that person's [[Philosophy:Self-confidence|self-confidence]]. If thought of in terms of [[Causality|causality]] or cause and effect, the higher a person's expectation and the lower the execution, the higher the frustration level may become. This in turn could cause a total cessation of effort and motivate the person to quit.{{citation needed|date=November 2012}}

== Expectations elicitation ==
Expectations are a central part of value calculations in economics. For example, calculating the [[Philosophy:Subjective expected utility|Subjective expected utility]] of an outcome requires knowing both the value of an outcome and the probability that it will occur. Researchers who elicit (or measure) the expectations of individuals can input these beliefs into the model in place of standard probabilities. The strategy of eliciting individual expectations is now incorporated into many international surveys, including the [[Social:Health and Retirement Study|Health and Retirement Study]] in the United States.

Expectations elicitation is used in many domains, including survival and educational outcomes, but may be most prominent in financial realms. Expectations are theoretically important for models such as the [[Finance:Efficient-market hypothesis|Efficient-market hypothesis]] which suggest that all information should be incorporated into the market, as well as for [[Finance:Modern portfolio theory|Modern portfolio theory]] which suggests that investors must be compensated for higher levels of risk through higher (expected) returns. Following these models, empirical research has found that consumers with more optimistic stock market expectations are more likely to hold riskier assets,<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Vissing-Jorgenson|date=2003|title=Perspectives on Behavioral Finance: Does "Irrationality" Disappear with Wealth? Evidence from Expectations and Actions|url=http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/vissing/vissing_nberma_article.pdf|journal=NBER Macroeconomics Annual|volume=18|pages=139–194|doi=10.1086/ma.18.3585252|s2cid=224798356}}</ref> and acquire stocks in the near future.<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Hurd|first1=Michael|last2=Van Rooij|first2=Maarten|last3=Winter|first3=Joachim|date=2011-04-01|title=Stock market expectations of Dutch households|journal=Journal of Applied Econometrics|language=en|volume=26|issue=3|pages=416–436|doi=10.1002/jae.1242|issn=1099-1255|pmc=3755777|pmid=23997423}}</ref> Given these promising findings, more recent research in psychology has begun to explore what factors drive consumers' expectations by exploring what factors come to mind when forming stock market expectations.<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Chin|first1=Alycia|last2=Bruine De Bruin|first2=Wändi|date=2016-03-01|title=Understanding the Formation of Consumers' Stock Market Expectations|url=https://zenodo.org/record/894592|journal=Journal of Consumer Affairs|volume=51|language=en|pages=200–210|doi=10.1111/joca.12110|s2cid=155233638|issn=1745-6606}}</ref>

==See also==
{{div col}}
* {{annotated link|Philosophy:Belief}}
* {{annotated link|Medicine:Delusion}}
* {{annotated link|Philosophy:Descriptive knowledge}}
* {{annotated link|Folk psychology}}
* {{annotated link|Social:Forward-looking statement}}
* {{annotated link|Gettier problem}}
* {{annotated link|Observer-expectancy effect}}
* {{annotated link|Medicine:Placebo}}
* {{annotated link|Prediction}}
* {{annotated link|Philosophy:Propositional attitude}}
* {{annotated link|Self-fulfilling prophecy}}
* {{annotated link|Philosophy:Subject-expectancy effect}}
* {{annotated link|Biology:Surprise (emotion)}}
* {{annotated link|Unsolved:Suggestibility}}
* {{annotated link|Philosophy:Thomas theorem}}
* {{annotated link|Social:Unintended consequences}}
{{div col end}}

==References==
{{Reflist}}

==External links==

[[Category:Thought]]
[[Category:Concepts in epistemology]]

{{Sourceattribution|Expectation (epistemic)}}