Earth:Potential tropical cyclone

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Short description: US designation of tropical weather


Potential Tropical Cyclone Four off the coast of Tamaulipas, Mexico
Example of a potential tropical cyclone during the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season

Potential tropical cyclone is a designation used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific basins that enables for features of high likelihood of undergoing tropical cyclogenesis to have watches and warnings issued for them. The practice began in 2017.

Operationality

The NHC defines a potential tropical cyclone as a disturbance which is not a tropical cyclone but is threatening to cause tropical storm or hurricane conditions to a landmass within 72 hours.[1]

Advisories related to potential tropical cyclones are the same as developed tropical cyclones.[2] The advent of the designation allowed for issuance of tropical cyclone warnings and watches prior to the development of a tropical cyclone.[3] Prior, those watches and warnings could only be issued for fully-formed tropical cyclones.[4]

History

The term was introduced for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season with the aim of giving citizens more time to prepare for systems.[5] At this point, disturbances were designated as such with a head time of 48 hours.[4] The first system to be designated as a potential tropical cyclone was Tropical Storm Bret as it was moving towards the Windward Islands.[6]

In 2025, the leading time for designation was extended to 72 hours before expected impact.[2]

Usage

System Date designated[lower-alpha 1] Area threatened[lower-alpha 2] Peak classification (SSHWS) References
Bret (2017) Tropical Storm Bret


2017 06 18 June 18, 2017


Windward Islands bgcolor="Template:Storm colour" |1 Tropical storm


[6]
Cindy (2017) Tropical Storm Cindy


2017 06 19 June 19, 2017


Louisiana bgcolor="Template:Storm colour" |1 Tropical storm


[4][7]
Harvey (2017) Hurricane Harvey


2017 08 17 August 17, 2017


Lesser Antilles bgcolor="Template:Storm colour" |5 Category 4


[8][9]
Lidia (2017) Tropical Storm Lidia


2017 08 26 August 26, 2017


Baja California Sur bgcolor="Template:Storm colour" |1 Tropical storm


[10]
10 (2017) Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten


2017 08 27 August 27, 2017


Carolinas bgcolor="Template:Storm colour"|0 Potential tropical cyclone


[11]
Philippe (2017) Tropical Storm Philippe


2017 10 27 October 27, 2017


Cuba, The Bahamas bgcolor="Template:Storm colour" |1 Tropical storm


[12]
Florence (2018) Hurricane Florence


2018 08 30 August 30, 2018


Cape Verde bgcolor="Template:Storm colour" |5 Category 4


[13][14]
Helene (2018) Hurricane Helene


2018 09 07 September 7, 2018


Cape Verde bgcolor="Template:Storm colour" |3 Category 2


[15][16]
Humberto (2019) Hurricane Humberto


2019 09 12 September 12, 2019


The Bahamas bgcolor="Template:Storm colour" |4 Category 3


[17][18]
17-E (2019) Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E


2019 10 16 October 16, 2019


South Mexico bgcolor="Template:Storm colour"|0 Potential tropical cyclone


[19]
Isaias (2020) Hurricane Isaias


2020 07 28 July 28, 2020


Antilles bgcolor="Template:Storm colour" |2 Category 1


[20][21]
Fred (2021) Tropical Storm Fred


2021 08 09 August 9, 2021


Antilles bgcolor="Template:Storm colour" |1 Tropical storm


[22]
Grace (2021) Hurricane Grace


2021 08 13 August 13, 2021


Leeward Islands bgcolor="Template:Storm colour" |4 Category 3


[23][24]
Alex (2022) Tropical Storm Alex


2022 06 02 June 2, 2022


Cuba, Florida bgcolor="Template:Storm colour" |1 Tropical storm


[25]
Bonnie (2022) Hurricane Bonnie


2022 06 27 June 27, 2022


Windward Islands bgcolor="Template:Storm colour" |4 Category 3


[26][27]
4 (2022) Potential Tropical Cyclone Four


2022 08 19 August 19, 2022


Tamaulipas, Texas bgcolor="Template:Storm colour"|0 Potential tropical cyclone


[28]
Julia (2022) Hurricane Julia


2022 10 06 October 6, 2022


Colombia bgcolor="Template:Storm colour" |2 Category 1


[29][30]
Lisa (2022) Hurricane Lisa


2022 10 30 October 30, 2022


Jamaica, Grand Cayman bgcolor="Template:Storm colour" |2 Category 1


[31][32]
Max (2023) Tropical Storm Max


2023 10 07 October 7, 2023


South Mexico bgcolor="Template:Storm colour" |1 Tropical storm


[33]
22 (2023) Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two


2023 11 16 November 16, 2023


Greater Antilles, Lucayan Archipelago bgcolor="Template:Storm colour" |0 Potential tropical cyclone


[34]
Francine (2024) Hurricane Francine


2024 09 08 September 8, 2024


Gulf of Mexico bgcolor="Template:Storm colour" |3 Category 2


[35][36]
8 (2024) Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight


2024 09 15 September 15, 2024


Carolinas bgcolor="Template:Storm colour"|0 Potential tropical cyclone


[37]
Helene (2024) Hurricane Helene


2024 09 23 September 23, 2024


Yucatán Peninsula, Cuba bgcolor="Template:Storm colour" |5 Category 4


[38][39]
Nadine (2024) Tropical Storm Nadine


2024 10 18 October 18, 2024


Yucatán Peninsula bgcolor="Template:Storm colour" |1 Tropical storm


[40]
Erick (2025) Hurricane Erick


2025 06 16 June 16, 2025


South Mexico bgcolor="Template:Storm colour" |5 Category 4


[41][42]
Imelda (2025) Hurricane Imelda


2025 09 26 September 26, 2025


The Bahamas bgcolor="Template:Storm colour" |2 Category 1


[43][44]
Arthur (2026) Tropical Storm Arthur


2026 06 16 June 16, 2026


Texas, Louisiana bgcolor="Template:Storm colour" |1 Tropical storm


[45]
Lala (2026) Hurricane Lala


2026 08 12 August 12, 2026


Hawaii[lower-alpha 3] bgcolor="Template:Storm colour"|5 Category 4


[46]
Edouard (2026) Tropical Storm Edouard


2026 08 31 August 31, 2026


Texas, Louisiana bgcolor="Template:Storm colour" |0.5 Tropical storm


[47]

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Different from formation date
  2. ↑ This only includes locations that the system was threatening upon designation as a PTC and not places throughout the entire lifespan of the system.
  3. ↑ Neither watches nor warnings issued initially

References

  1. ↑ "Glossary of NHC Terms". https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#p. 
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 Dolce, Chris; Kaiser, Caitlin (2025-09-26). "What Is a Potential Tropical Cyclone?" (in en-US). https://weather.com/safety/hurricane/news/2025-06-06-what-is-a-potential-tropical-cyclone-hurricane-season. 
  3. ↑ Gray, Jennifer (2025-07-18). "Weather Words: Potential Tropical Cyclone" (in en-US). https://weather.com/science/weather-explainers/news/2025-07-16-weather-words-potential-tropical-cyclone-2025. 
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 Combs, Felicia (2017-06-21). "What is a potential tropical cyclone?" (in en). https://www.wptv.com/weather/weather-blogs/wednesdays-weather-word-potential-tropical-cyclone. 
  5. ↑ Clarkson, Brett (2017-04-13). "The cone map has changed, but the message hasn’t" (in en-US). https://www.sun-sentinel.com/2017/04/13/the-cone-map-has-changed-but-the-message-hasnt/. 
  6. ↑ 6.0 6.1 "NHC Unveils New Product with Potential Tropical Cyclone in Atlantic" (in en). 2017-06-18. https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/nhc-unveils-new-product-potential-tropical-cyclone-atlantic. 
  7. ↑ Brennan, Michael (2017-06-19). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number 1". https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/al03/al032017.public.001.shtml?. 
  8. ↑ Beven, Jack (2017-08-17). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1...Corrected". https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/al09/al092017.public.001.shtml?. 
  9. ↑ Meg, Matthias (2026-07-03). "Hurricane Harvey" (in en). https://www.britannica.com/event/Hurricane-Harvey. 
  10. ↑ Blake, Eric (2017-08-29). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Discussion Number 1". https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/ep14/ep142017.discus.001.shtml?. 
  11. ↑ Brennan, Michael (2017-08-27). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Advisory Number 1...Corrected". https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/al10/al102017.public.001.shtml?. 
  12. ↑ Brennan, Michael (2017-10-27). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Advisory Number 1". https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/al18/al182017.public.001.shtml?. 
  13. ↑ Avila, Lixion (2018-08-30). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 1". https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/al06/al062018.discus.001.shtml. 
  14. ↑ Stewart, Stacy R.; Berg, Robbie (2019-09-25). "Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Report". https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL062018_Florence.pdf. 
  15. ↑ Brennan, Michael (2018-09-07). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Advisory Number 1". https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/al08/al082018.public.001.shtml?. 
  16. ↑ Cangialosi, John P. (2019-07-19). "Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Report". https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL082018_Helene.pdf. 
  17. ↑ Avila, Lixion (2019-09-12). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1". https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/al09/al092019.public.001.shtml?. 
  18. ↑ Stewart, Stacy R. (2020-02-19). "Hurricane Humberto Tropical Cyclone Report". https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092019_Humberto.pdf. 
  19. ↑ Pasch, Richard J. (2020-02-28). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E Tropical Cyclone Report". https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/EP172019_PTC_Seventeen-E.pdf. 
  20. ↑ Brown, Daniel (2020-07-28). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1". https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2020/al09/al092020.public.001.shtml. 
  21. ↑ Latto, Andy; Hagen, Andrew; Berg, Robbie (2021-06-11). "Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Report". https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092020_Isaias.pdf. 
  22. ↑ Brown, Daniel; Papin, Philippe (2021-08-09). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 1". https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2021/al06/al062021.public.001.shtml?. 
  23. ↑ Berg, Robbie; Brennan, Michael (2021-08-13). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Advisory Number 1...Corrected". https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2021/al07/al072021.public.001.shtml?. 
  24. ↑ Hanna, Jason; Elamroussi, Aya (2021-08-20). "Hurricane Grace is now a category 3 storm as it closes in on Mexico" (in en). CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/20/weather/hurricane-grace-mexico-friday. 
  25. ↑ Beven, Jack (2022-06-02). "Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 1". https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/al01/al012022.public.001.shtml?. 
  26. ↑ Pasch, Richard (2022-06-27). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 1". https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/al02/al022022.public.001.shtml. 
  27. ↑ Papin, Philippe P. (2023-03-20). "Hurricane Bonnie Tropical Cyclone Report". https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL022022_EP042022_Bonnie.pdf. 
  28. ↑ Cangialosi, John P. (2022-11-01). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Tropical Cyclone Report". https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL042022_PTC4.pdf. 
  29. ↑ Berg, Robbie (2022-10-06). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen Advisory Number 1". https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/al13/al132022.public.001.shtml. 
  30. ↑ Cangialosi, John P. (2023-03-13). "Hurricane Julia Tropical Cyclone Report". https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL132022_EP182022_Julia.pdf. 
  31. ↑ Papin, Philippe; Cangialosi, John (2022-10-30). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Advisory Number 1". https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/al15/al152022.public.001.shtml?. 
  32. ↑ Blake, Eric S. (2023-03-14). "Hurricane Lisa Tropical Cyclone Report". https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL152022_Lisa.pdf. 
  33. ↑ Brown, Daniel (2023-10-07). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen-E Advisory Number 1". https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/ep16/ep162023.public.001.shtml?. 
  34. ↑ Hagen, Andrew (February 28, 2024). Tropical Cyclone Report: Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two (Report). Miami, Florida: National Hurricane Center. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL222023_Twenty-Two.pdf. Retrieved May 29, 2024. 
  35. ↑ Papin, Philippe (2025-09-08). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 1". https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/al06/al062024.public.001.shtml. 
  36. ↑ "Hurricane Francine 2024" (in EN-US). https://www.weather.gov/lch/2024Francine. 
  37. ↑ Pasch, Richard (2024-09-15). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Advisory Number 1". https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/al08/al082024.public.001.shtml. 
  38. ↑ Reinhart, Brad (2024-09-23). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1". https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/al09/al092024.public.001.shtml?. 
  39. ↑ "Tropical Storm Helene: September 26-27, 2024" (in EN-US). https://www.weather.gov/ilm/helene2024. 
  40. ↑ Hogsett, Wallace; Cangialosi, John (2024-10-18). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Advisory Number 1". https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/al15/al152024.public.001.shtml?. 
  41. ↑ Bucci, Lisa; Mora, Cassandra; Cano, Will (2025-06-16). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E Advisory Number 1". https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/ep05/ep052025.public.001.shtml. 
  42. ↑ Sánchez, Fabiola; Cruz, Luis Alberto (2025-06-19). "Erick turns rainmaker after hitting Mexico's Pacific coast as a strong hurricane. 1 dead" (in en). https://apnews.com/article/hurricane-erick-mexico-pacific-storm-winds-rain-f2e27fe7d8d30a48de2aa2b4cf952c0d. 
  43. ↑ Cangialosi, John (2025-09-26). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1". https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/al09/al092025.public.001.shtml. 
  44. ↑ Reinhart, Brad J. (2026-01-26). "Hurricane Imelda Tropical Cyclone Report". https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092025_Imelda.pdf. 
  45. ↑ Blake, Eric (2026-06-16). "Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 1". https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/al01/al012026.discus.001.shtml. 
  46. ↑ Pasch, Richard (2026-08-12). "Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C Advisory Number 1". https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/cp01/cp012026.public.001.shtml. 
  47. ↑ Reinhart, Brad (2026-06-16). "Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 1". https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/al05/al052026.discus.001.shtml. 



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