Engineering:Future-oriented technology analysis

From HandWiki

Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) is a collective term from futures studies for analyzing future technology and its consequences.[1][2] It includes technology intelligence, technology forecasting, technology roadmapping, technology assessment, and technology foresight. Technology Futures Analysis or Technology Future Analysis (TFA) is a synonym.[1][3]

Future-oriented technology analysis shares common methods with horizon scanning.[4][5]

Definitions

Year Definition
2004 Technology futures analysis is "any process to produce judgments about emerging technology characteristics, development pathways, and potential impacts of a technology in the future. ... [TFA] encompasses the broad technology foresight and assessment studies of the public sector and the technology forecasting and intelligence studies in private industry."[6]
2013 Future-oriented technology analysis is "an umbrella term to denote several decision-preparatory tools - (technology) foresight, forecasting and technology assessment - and thus it is not a discipline with solid, widely accepted theoretical foundations."[7]

Methods

Methods and their families[8]
Method Family
Agent based modeling Modeling and simulation
Analytical hierarchy process Valuing/decision/economic
Backcasting Descriptive and matrices
Bibliometrics Monitoring and intelligence, Statistics
Brainstorming Creativity
Cross impact analysis Modeling and simulation, Statistics
Delphi Expert Opinion
Multicriteria decision analyses Valuing/decision/economic
Relevance tree Descriptive and matrices, Valuing/decision/economic
Risk analysis Descriptive and matrices, Valuing/decision/economic
Roadmapping Descriptive and matrices
Scenarios Scenarios
Social impact assessment Descriptive and matrices
Stakeholder analysis Descriptive and matrices, Valuing/decision/economic
Sustainability analysis Descriptive and matrices, Modeling and simulation
System dynamics Modeling and simulation
Technology assessment Descriptive and matrices, Modeling and simulation
TRIZ Creativity

References

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 Filip, F. G.; Dragomirescu, H.; Predescu, R.; Ilie, R. (2004). "IT tools for foresight studies". Studies in Informatics and Control (13): 161-168. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/251920253. 
  2. ↑ "Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods" (in en). Technological Forecasting and Social Change 71 (3): 287–303. 1 March 2004. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.004. ISSN 0040-1625. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0040162503001380. 
  3. ↑ Sánchez-Torres, J. M.; Miles, I. (16 December 2017). "The role of future-oriented technology analysis in e-Government: a systematic review" (in en). European Journal of Futures Research 5 (1): 15. doi:10.1007/s40309-017-0131-7. ISSN 2195-2248. 
  4. ↑ Eerola, A.; Miles, I. (1 April 2011). "Methods and tools contributing to FTA: A knowledge-based perspective" (in en). Futures 43 (3): 265–278. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2010.11.005. ISSN 0016-3287. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0016328710002697. 
  5. ↑ Tagiew, Rustam; Witzler, Sebastian; Portier, Martin (14 July 2022) (in en). Towards Assessing Digital Technologies for the Future of Mobility. Social Science Research Network. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4151745. 
  6. ↑ "Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods" (in en). Technological Forecasting and Social Change 71 (3): 287–303. 1 March 2004. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.004. ISSN 0040-1625. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0040162503001380. 
  7. ↑ Cagnin, Cristiano; Havas, Attila; Saritas, Ozcan (1 March 2013). "Future-oriented technology analysis: Its potential to address disruptive transformations" (in en). Technological Forecasting and Social Change 80 (3): 379–385. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2012.10.001. ISSN 0040-1625. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0040162512002454. 
  8. ↑ "Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods" (in en). Technological Forecasting and Social Change 71 (3): 287–303. 1 March 2004. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.004. ISSN 0040-1625. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0040162503001380. 



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