Social:Near-miss effect

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Short description: Psychological effect in gambling
Illustration of a slot machine with near-miss.

The near-miss effect refers to when a player becomes more motivated to continue expending effort because the previous effort "almost succeeded". It occurs in many endeavors, especially sports, but is highly documented and studied in gambling.[1][2]

Psychology

The near-miss effect is boosted by conditional reinforcement and personal control.[3][4] It stimulates reward-related parts of the brain such as the ventral striatum,[5] and can increase heart rate and dopamine transmission in the brain,[6][7] with the stimuli causing the feeling that the gambler is close to a win.[4]

By stimulating the "win" response, conditional reinforcement, which is only useful in games of skill, may[8] lead a gambler to temporarily mistake a game of luck for a game of skill.[3] For instance, a soccer player who takes a shot and hits the goalpost may legitimately feel encouraged to shoot again, as they perceive the near miss as evidence that they are shooting well that day, the defenders are not defending well, or that they are otherwise about to score, whereas missing a lottery ticket by only one digit has no bearing on the effectiveness of buying another lottery ticket.

According to a study published in Neuron, gamblers also have an inflated confidence when they choose their lottery ticket or throw the roulette ball by themselves, compared to when another person throws it. For example, craps players have been found to throw the dice harder for a higher roll, again mistaking chance for skill.[3]

Effects outside of gambling

Besides gambling, the near-miss effect also affects decision making in other fields. For example, gamblers who experience the near-miss effect view it as a success, leading to riskier decision making. They also subjectively assess the future probability of failure to be lower than the actual probability. Managers who make decisions leading to the near-miss effect are evaluated as highly as managers who make decisions resulting in successes.[9] Robin L. Dillon, Catherine H. Tinsley and Matthew Cronin, explaining the result, write: "People did not update given probabilities, they did not calculate new probabilities, they simply felt differently about the initial probabilities that were given. Thus it might be said that near-miss information changes people’s frames of reference.”[10]

Documentation

Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1982 considered a lottery where the winning ticket number is 865304 and there are three ticket holders, with numbers 361204, 965304 and 865305 respectively. They asserted that the first two ticket holders would not be troubled, whereas the third one would experience frustration due to the near-miss effect.[1]

An experiment on rats used a machine similar to a slot machine to study the near-miss effect. The machine allowed rats to press a lever in which, if all three lights on display flashed, the rats would win a pellet of food; otherwise, the lever would inflict a time penalty. The experiment found that the rats were more likely to press the lever when they won or when two of the three lights flashed (a near-miss).[8][11] Different studies have shown that about 30% of near-misses increased the rate of gambling behavior.[6]

The near-miss effect is commonly seen in slot machines. For example, in a slot machine where "cherry, cherry, cherry" signals a win, "cherry, cherry, lemon" would be an example of a near-miss.[4] This is shown by measures of direct frustration like how hard the spin button is pressed.[12] Therefore, slot machines have a high rate of near-misses which may add to their addictive potential.[13] The evidence for the emotional impact of near-misses is mixed; some studies show no significant results.[13][14]

Wordle, a popular word guessing game, contains near-misses.[15] Video games too can have similar characteristics.[16]

Critical reviews

Some papers have not found evidence of the near miss effect. For example, a study published by Cambridge University Press found no evidence of the near-miss effect. Instead, the study found a negative correlation for 20 out of the 30 participants.[9] Another study published in 1986 also found no evidence of the near miss effect.[1]

See also

References

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 Reid, R. L. (1986). "The psychology of the near miss" (in en). Journal of Gambling Behavior 2 (1): 32–39. doi:10.1007/BF01019932. ISSN 0742-0714. https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldous/157/Papers/near_miss.pdf. 
  2. ↑ Tao, Suo; Yang, Yan; Zeng, Fan; Mengmeng, Wang; Guoxiang, Zhao (September 2018). "The near-miss effect in gambling game" (in Chinese). Advances in Psychological Science 26 (9): 1689–1699. doi:10.3724/SP.J.1042.2018.01689. https://journal.psych.ac.cn/xlkxjz/article/2018/1671-3710/1671-3710-26-9-1689.shtml. 
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 Clark, Luke; Lawrence, Andrew J; Astley Jones, Frances; Gray, Nicola (2009). "Gambling Near-Misses Enhance Motivation to Gamble and Recruit Win-Related Brain Circuitry". Neuron 61 (3): 481–490. doi:10.1016/j.neuron.2008.12.031. PMID 19217383. 
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 Pisklak, Jeffery M; Yong, Joshua J H; Spetch, Marcia L (2020). "The Near-Miss Effect in Slot Machines: A Review and Experimental Analysis Over Half a Century Later". Journal of Gambling Studies 36 (2): 611–632. doi:10.1007/s10899-019-09891-8. PMID 31522339. 
  5. ↑ Quaglieri, Alessandro; Pizzo, Alessandra; Cricenti, Clarissa; Tagliaferri, Ginevra; Frisari, Francesca Valeria; Burrai, Jessica; Mari, Emanuela; Lausi, Giulia et al. (2024-02-01). "Gambling and virtual reality: unraveling the illusion of near-misses effect" (in English). Frontiers in Psychiatry 15. doi:10.3389/fpsyt.2024.1322631. ISSN 1664-0640. PMID 38362030. 
  6. ↑ 6.0 6.1 Clark, Luke; Liu, Rui; McKavanagh, Rebecca; Garrett, Alice; Dunn, Barnaby D.; Aitken, Michael R. F. (2013-11-12). "Learning and Affect Following Near-Miss Outcomes in Simulated Gambling" (in en). Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 26 (5): 442–450. doi:10.1002/bdm.1774. ISSN 0894-3257. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/bdm.1774. 
  7. ↑ Chase, Henry W.; Clark, Luke (2010-05-05). "Gambling Severity Predicts Midbrain Response to Near-Miss Outcomes" (in en). Journal of Neuroscience 30 (18): 6180–6187. doi:10.1523/JNEUROSCI.5758-09.2010. ISSN 0270-6474. PMID 20445043. PMC 2929454. https://www.jneurosci.org/content/30/18/6180.short. 
  8. ↑ 8.0 8.1 Lehrer, Jonah. "The Near-Miss Effect" (in en-US). Wired. ISSN 1059-1028. https://www.wired.com/2011/03/the-near-miss-effect/. Retrieved 2024-11-09. 
  9. ↑ 9.0 9.1 Sundali, James A.; Safford, Amanda H.; Croson, Rachel (2012). "The impact of near-miss events on betting behavior: An examination of casino rapid roulette play" (in en). Judgment and Decision Making 7 (6): 768–778. doi:10.1017/S1930297500003326. ISSN 1930-2975. 
  10. ↑ Dillon, Robin L.; Tinsley, Catherine H.; Cronin, Matthew (2011). "Why Near-Miss Events Can Decrease an Individual's Protective Response to Hurricanes" (in en). Risk Analysis 31 (3): 448. doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01506.x. ISSN 1539-6924. PMID 20880221. Bibcode: 2011RiskA..31..440D. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01506.x. 
  11. ↑ Winstanley, Catharine A.; Cocker, Paul J.; Rogers, Robert D. (2011-01-05). "Dopamine Modulates Reward Expectancy During Performance of a Slot Machine Task in Rats: Evidence for a 'Near-miss' Effect" (in en). Neuropsychopharmacology 36 (5): 913–925. doi:10.1038/npp.2010.230. ISSN 1740-634X. PMID 21209612. 
  12. ↑ Dixon, Mike J.; Larche, Chanel J.; Stange, Madison; Graydon, Candice; Fugelsang, Jonathan A. (2018-03-01). "Near-Misses and Stop Buttons in Slot Machine Play: An Investigation of How They Affect Players, and May Foster Erroneous Cognitions" (in en). Journal of Gambling Studies 34 (1): 161–180. doi:10.1007/s10899-017-9699-x. ISSN 1573-3602. PMID 28702882. 
  13. ↑ 13.0 13.1 Palmer, Lucas; Ferrari, Mario A; Clark, Luke (2024). "The near-miss effect in online slot machine gambling: A series of conceptual replications.". American Psychological Association 38 (6): 716–727. doi:10.1037/adb0000999. PMID 38709628. https://psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/2024-81139-001.html. 
  14. ↑ Barton, K. R.; Yazdani, Y.; Ayer, N.; Kalvapalle, S.; Brown, S.; Stapleton, J.; Brown, D. G.; Harrigan, K. A. (2017-12-01). "The Effect of Losses Disguised as Wins and Near Misses in Electronic Gaming Machines: A Systematic Review" (in en). Journal of Gambling Studies 33 (4): 1241–1260. doi:10.1007/s10899-017-9688-0. ISSN 1573-3602. PMID 28421402. 
  15. ↑ Dixon, Mike J.; Gunpat, Brittany S.; Boucher, Isabelle A.; Tsang, Monica; Ahmed, Sara; Shaikevich, Greg; Dhode, Isha; Leung, Joshua et al. (2024-10-17). "Using "Wordle" to assess the effects of goal gradients and near-misses" (in en). Scientific Reports 14 (1): 24336. doi:10.1038/s41598-024-74450-0. ISSN 2045-2322. PMID 39420198. Bibcode: 2024NatSR..1424336D. 
  16. ↑ "The Near Miss Effect and Game Rewards" (in en-US). 2016-09-02. https://www.psychologyofgames.com/2016/09/the-near-miss-effect-and-game-rewards/. 



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