Unsolved:Causal layered analysis
Causal layered analysis (CLA) is a technique used in strategic planning and futurology to more effectively shape the future.[1][2] The technique was pioneered by Sohail Inayatullah, a Pakistani-Australian futurology researcher.[3]
Theory
Causal layered analysis works by identifying many different levels, and attempting to make synchronized changes at all levels to create a coherent new future. Inayatullah's original paper[3] as well as his TEDx talk[4] identify four levels:
- The litany: This includes quantitative trends, often exaggerated and used for political purposes. The result could be a feeling of apathy, helplessness, or projected action. Inayatullah calls this "the conventional level of futures research which can readily create a politics of fear."[3]
- Social causes, including economic, cultural, political, and historical factors.
- Structure and the discourse that legitimizes and supports the structure.
- Metaphor and myth
History of research
CLA was first introduced explicitly as a futures research technique by Sohail Inayatullah in a 1998 article for Futures that would come to be widely cited.[3] Later, Inayatullah would edit the CLA Reader, that featured chapters from a number of futurists and practitioners describing their experience with CLA.[5][6]
Inayatullah's work on CLA was examined in a book by Jose W. Ramos in 2003.[7]
A 2008 article by Chris Riedy examined the similarities, differences, and possible combinations of CLA and Ken Wilber's integral theory.[8]
A 2010 article by Gary P. Hampson explored the relationship between integral futures and CLA further, and also considered Richard Slaughter's critique of CLA.[9]
Sohail Inayatullah and Ivana Milojevic have published an update in 2015.[10] With various authors, they investigate topics such as:
- The Global Financial Crisis
- Terrorism futures
- Global governance
- Ageing and the changing workforce
- Educational and university futures
- Climate change
- Water futures in the Muslim world
- The alternative futures of China
- Agricultural policy in Australia
- The new national narrative in Singapore
See also
References
- ↑ Inayatullah, Sohail (January–February 2014). "Causal Layered Analysis Defined". The Futurist (World Future Society) 48 (1). http://www.wfs.org/futurist/january-february-2014-vol-48-no-1/causal-layered-analysis-defined. Retrieved July 2, 2014.
- ↑ "Causal Layered Analysis". Scenarios for Sustainability Recipes. http://scenariosforsustainability.org/recipes/cla.html. Retrieved July 2, 2014.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 Inayatullah, Sohail (October 1998). "Causal layered analysis: Poststructuralism as method". Futures 30 (8): 815–829. doi:10.1016/S0016-3287(98)00086-X. http://proutglobal.info/slideshows/training/Related%20web%20pages/002-Casual_Layered_Analysis.pdf. Retrieved July 2, 2014.
- ↑ Inayatullah, Sohail (May 12, 2013). "Causal Layered Analysis: Sohail Inayatullah at TEDxNoosa". https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImWDmFPfifI. Retrieved July 2, 2014.
- ↑ "The Causal Layered Analysis Reader". Metafuture.org. http://www.metafuture.org/Books/causal_layered_analysis_reader.htm. Retrieved July 2, 2014.
- ↑ "The Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Reader: Theory and Case Studies of an Integrative and Transformative Methodology". http://metafuture.org/cla%20papers/Inayatullah%20%20Causal%20layered%20analysis%20-%20theory,%20historical%20context,%20and%20case%20studies.%20Intro%20chapter%20from%20The%20CLA%20Reader..pdf. Retrieved July 2, 2014.
- ↑ Ramos, Jose W. (2003). "From critique to cultural recovery: critical futures studies and casual layered analysis". Australian Foresight Institute. http://researchbank.swinburne.edu.au/vital/access/manager/Repository/swin:8255. Retrieved July 2, 2014.
- ↑ Riedy, Chris (March 2008). "An Integral extension of causal layered analysis". Futures (Elsevier) 40 (2): 150–159. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2007.11.009. http://epress.lib.uts.edu.au/research/bitstream/handle/10453/9782/2007001241.pdf?sequence=1.
- ↑ Hampson, Gary P. (March 2010). "Futures of integral futures: An analysis of Richard Slaughter's analysis of Causal Layered Analysis". doi:10.1016/j.futures.2009.09.006. http://www.metafuture.org/pdf/epistemologicalfutures.pdf#page=53. Retrieved July 2, 2014.
- ↑ "CLA 2.0 Transformative Research in Theory and Practice". 2015. http://research.usc.edu.au/vital/access/manager/Repository/usc:14860.
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