Astronomy:2022 AE1
Discovery[1] | |
---|---|
Discovered by | Mount Lemmon Survey |
Discovery site | Mount Lemmon Obs. |
Discovery date | 6 January 2022 |
Designations | |
2022 AE1 | |
Minor planet category | |
Orbital characteristics[2] | |
Epoch 2022-Jan-21 (JD 2459600.5) | |
Uncertainty parameter 7 | |
Observation arc | 20 days |
|{{{apsis}}}|helion}} | 2.27 astronomical unit|AU (Q) |
|{{{apsis}}}|helion}} | 0.667 AU (q) |
1.47 AU (a) | |
Eccentricity | 0.547 (e) |
Orbital period | 1.78 years |
Mean anomaly | 39° (M) |
Inclination | 6.3° (i) |
Longitude of ascending node | 102.2° (Ω) |
|{{{apsis}}}|helion}} | 10 November 2021 |
268.3° (ω) | |
Earth MOID | 0.00007 AU (10 thousand km) |
Jupiter MOID | 3.2 AU (480 million km) |
Physical characteristics | |
Mean diameter |
|
Absolute magnitude (H) | 23.49[4] |
2022 AE1 is a Tunguska event-sized asteroid, classified as a near-Earth object of the Apollo group, approximately 70 meters (230 feet) in diameter.[5] It was discovered by the Mount Lemmon Survey on 6 January 2022, when it was 0.09 astronomical unit|AU (13 million km) from Earth.[1] On 9 January 2022 with an observation arc of 3 days, it was rated with a Torino scale of 1 for a virtual impactor on 4 July 2023 16:28 UTC.[3][lower-alpha 1] Nominal approach is expected to occur 1 July 2023 01:13 ± 1 day.[2][lower-alpha 2] With a Palermo scale rating of as high as –0.66 at the European Space Agency on 11 January 2022,[6] the odds of impact peaked at about 4.6[lower-alpha 3] times less than the background hazard level.[lower-alpha 4] NEODyS was the first risk-page to drop to Torino scale 0 on 12 January 2022[7] followed by ESA on 13 January 2022,[6] but by January 14 both returned to Torino scale 1. On 14 January 2022 the waxing gibbous moon was as little as 3 degrees from the asteroid delaying observations of the asteroid from January 12–19.[8] On 20 January 2022 with a 16-day observation arc, using JPL #11 the Sentry Risk Table dropped the asteroid to Torino scale 0 and then later that day JPL #12 resulted in it being removed from the risk table.[9][10]
Observation arc (in days) |
JPL Horizons nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
uncertainty region (3-sigma) |
Impact probability (1 in) |
Torino scale |
---|---|---|---|---|
2.9 | 0.024 astronomical unit|AU (3.6 million km)[11] | ± 38 million km[11] | 2900 | 1 |
5.9 | 0.043 AU (6.4 million km)[12] | ± 31 million km[12] | 1800 | 1 |
7.1 | 0.043 AU (6.4 million km)[13] | ± 22 million km[13] | 1500 | 1 |
7.9 | 0.066 AU (9.9 million km)[14] | ± 20 million km[14] | 2800 | 1 |
8.1 | 0.039 AU (5.8 million km)[15] | ± 12 million km[15] | 1700 | 1 |
16.1 | 0.053 AU (7.9 million km)[16] | ± 7 million km[16][lower-alpha 2] | 71000 | 0 |
16.1 (JPL #12) |
0.059 AU (8.8 million km)[17] | ± 5 million km[17] | 0[3] | 0[3] |
20 | 0.072 AU (10.8 million km)[18] | ± 4 million km[18] | 0 | 0 |
Date & Time | Approach to |
Nominal distance |
---|---|---|
2023-Jul-01 01:13 ± 1 day | Earth | 9246404 km[2] |
2023-Jul-01 03:44 | Moon | 9463958 km[19] |
It came to perihelion (closest approach to the Sun) on 10 November 2021, and then approached Earth from the direction of the Sun making closest Earth approach on 31 December 2021 at distance of about 10 million km.[2]
See also
Notes
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 Earth traveling at 30 km/s and with a diameter of 12,800 km, only blocks the path of the asteroid for about 8 minutes (30 km/s * 60 sec * 8 min).
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 The JPL Small-Body Database close approach table lists a linearized uncertainty. Sentry computations explore alternate orbit solutions along the line of variations and account for orbit propagation nonlinearities.
- ↑ 100.66 = 4.57. JPL's Sentry Risk Table, ESA's Risk List and NEODyS will all list slightly different odds of impact and Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale values.
- ↑ "Background risk" is defined as the average risk posed by objects of the same size or larger over the years until the date of the potential impact.
References
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 "MPEC 2022-A56 : 2022 AE1". IAU Minor Planet Center. 2022-01-07. https://minorplanetcenter.net/mpec/K22/K22A56.html. Retrieved 2022-01-10. (K22A01E)
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: (2022 AE1)". Jet Propulsion Laboratory. https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html#/?sstr=2022+AE1&view=OPC. Retrieved 2022-01-20.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 "Sentry Risk Table: 2022 AE1". NASA JPL CNEOS. https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2022%20AE1.
- ↑ "2022 AE1 Orbit". Minor Planet Center. https://www.minorplanetcenter.net/db_search/show_object?object_id=2022+AE1. Retrieved 2022-01-20.
- ↑ "ESA asteroid warning 2023: will "2022 AE1" hit Earth, or not? - Technology Org" (in en-US). 2022-12-17. https://www.technology.org/2022/12/17/esa-asteroid-warning-2023-will-it-hit-earth-or-not/.
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 "ESA Risk List". European Space Agency near-earth objects coordination centre. https://neo.ssa.esa.int/risk-list.
- ↑ "NEODyS-2 Impactor Table: 2022AE1". NEODyS CLOMON2. https://newton.spacedys.com/neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.2&n=2022AE1.
- ↑ "JPL Horizons: 2022 AE1 Target-Observer-Moon (lunar elongation) for 13-17 January 2022". JPL Horizons. https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272022+AE1%27&START_TIME=%272022-01-13%27&STOP_TIME=%272022-01-17%27&STEP_SIZE=%271+hour%27&QUANTITIES=%279%2C25%27.
- ↑ Neo, Operator. "Recap on the removal of 2022 AE1 from the risk list". European Space Agency Space Safety Programme. https://neo.ssa.esa.int/-/recap-on-the-removal-of-2022-ae1-from-the-risk-list.
- ↑ "The rise and fall of the riskiest asteroid in a decade". European Space Agency. https://www.esa.int/Safety_Security/Planetary_Defence/The_rise_and_fall_of_the_riskiest_asteroid_in_a_decade.
- ↑ 11.0 11.1 "JPL #4 Horizons Archive: 2022 AE1 geocentric distance and uncertainty with 2.9 day arc". JPL Horizons. https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272022+AE1%27&START_TIME=%272023-07-04+16:34%27&STOP_TIME=%272023-07-05%27&STEP_SIZE=%271+day%27&QUANTITIES=%2720%2C39%27.
- ↑ 12.0 12.1 "JPL #5 Horizons Archive: 2022 AE1 geocentric distance and uncertainty with 5.8 day arc". JPL Horizons. https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272022+AE1%27&START_TIME=%272023-07-04+16:34%27&STOP_TIME=%272023-07-05%27&STEP_SIZE=%271+day%27&QUANTITIES=%2720%2C39%27.
- ↑ 13.0 13.1 "JPL #6 Horizons Archive: 2022 AE1 geocentric distance and uncertainty with 7.1 day arc". JPL Horizons. https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272022+AE1%27&START_TIME=%272023-07-04+16:28%27&STOP_TIME=%272023-07-05%27&STEP_SIZE=%271+day%27&QUANTITIES=%2720%2C39%27.
- ↑ 14.0 14.1 "JPL #7 Horizons Archive: 2022 AE1 geocentric distance and uncertainty with 7.9 day arc". JPL Horizons. https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272022+AE1%27&START_TIME=%272023-07-04+16:28%27&STOP_TIME=%272023-07-05%27&STEP_SIZE=%271+day%27&QUANTITIES=%2720%2C39%27.
- ↑ 15.0 15.1 "JPL #10 Horizons Archive: 2022 AE1 geocentric distance and uncertainty with 8.1 day arc". JPL Horizons. https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272022+AE1%27&START_TIME=%272023-07-04+16:28%27&STOP_TIME=%272023-07-05%27&STEP_SIZE=%271+day%27&QUANTITIES=%2720%2C39%27.
- ↑ 16.0 16.1 "JPL #11 Horizons Archive: 2022 AE1 geocentric distance and uncertainty with 16 day arc". JPL Horizons. https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272022+AE1%27&START_TIME=%272023-07-04+16:28%27&STOP_TIME=%272023-07-05%27&STEP_SIZE=%271+day%27&QUANTITIES=%2720%2C39%27.
- ↑ 17.0 17.1 "JPL #13 Horizons Archive: 2022 AE1 geocentric distance and uncertainty with 16 day arc". JPL Horizons. https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272022+AE1%27&START_TIME=%272023-07-04+16:28%27&STOP_TIME=%272023-07-05%27&STEP_SIZE=%271+day%27&QUANTITIES=%2720%2C39%27.
- ↑ 18.0 18.1 "JPL #15 Horizons Archive: 2022 AE1 geocentric distance and uncertainty with 20 day arc". JPL Horizons. https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272022+AE1%27&START_TIME=%272023-07-04+16:28%27&STOP_TIME=%272023-07-05%27&STEP_SIZE=%271+day%27&QUANTITIES=%2720%2C39%27.
- ↑ "Moon Horizons Batch for 2023-Jul-01". JPL Horizons. https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272022+AE1%27&START_TIME=%272023-Jul-01%27&STOP_TIME=%272023-Jul-03%27&STEP_SIZE=%2710+min%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27&CENTER=%27@301%27. Retrieved 2021-01-20.
External links
- 2022 AE1 at NeoDyS-2, Near Earth Objects—Dynamic Site
- Ephemeris · Obs prediction · Orbital info · MOID · Proper elements · Obs info · Close · Physical info · NEOCC
- 2022 AE1 at ESA–space situational awareness
- 2022 AE1 at the JPL Small-Body Database
![]() | Original source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022 AE1.
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