Astronomy:Solar cycle 25

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Short description: Predicted Sun activity 2019 to about 2030
Solar cycle 25
Solar Cycle 25 prediction and progression.png
ISES Solar Cycle 25 Sunspot Number Progression and Predictions as of September 2023
Sunspot data
Start dateDecember 2019
Max count125 (smoothed)
Max count monthJune 2023 (progressive)[1]
Min count1.8
Cycle chronology
Previous cycleSolar cycle 24 (12/2008-12/2019)

Solar cycle 25 is the current solar cycle, the 25th since 1755, when extensive recording of solar sunspot activity began. It began in December 2019 with a minimum smoothed sunspot number of 1.8.[2] It is expected to continue until about 2030.[3][4]

Predictions

Widely varying predictions regarding the strength of cycle 25 ranged from very weak with suggestions of slow slide in to a Maunder minimum like state[5][6] to a weak cycle similar to previous cycle 24[7] and even a strong cycle.[8][9][10] Upton and Hathaway predicted that the weakness of cycle 25 would make it part of the Modern Gleissberg Minimum.[5]

The Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel predicted in December 2019[11] that solar cycle 25 will be similar to solar cycle 24, with the preceding solar cycle minimum in April 2020 (± 6 months), and the number of sunspots reaching a (smoothed) maximum of 115 in July 2025 (± 8 months). This prediction is in line with the current general agreement in the scientific literature, which holds that solar cycle 25 will be weaker than average (i.e. weaker than during the exceptionally strong Modern Maximum).[7] However, observations from 2020 to 2022, the first three years of the cycle, significantly exceed predicted values.[12]

Cycle 25 predictions
Source Date Cycle max Cycle start Cycle end
Thompson, M.J. et al.[4] August 2014 Q4 2019
Zharkova, V. et al 2014, 2015.[13] (Northumbria U.) October 2014 65 (80% of cycle 24)
Upton, L.A. and Hathaway, D.H.[5] (Solar Observatories Group, Stanford University) December 2018 78 (95% of cycle 24) Late 2020 – Early 2021
Xu, J.C. et al.[8] (Chinese Academy of Sciences) August 2018 168.5 ± 16.3 (2024) October 2020
Bhowmik, P. and Nandy, D.[7] (IISER Kolkata) December 2018 124 ± 15 (2023–2025) 2020 after 2031
Ozguc, A. et al.[9] (Harvard U-ty) December 2018 154 ± 12 (2023.2±1.1)
NOAA / SSRC[14] April 2019 117 ± 23 (2023–2026) mid-2019 – late 2020
NASA[15] June 2019 70 ± 29 (30–50% lower than Cycle 24 (2025)) 2020
NOAA / SSRC (update)[16] December 2019 115 ± 10 (July 2025) April 2020 (± 6 months)
Mcintosh et al.[17][18] June 2020 229 ± 25
Mcintosh et al.[17][18] December 2020 190 ± 20
National Center for Atmospheric Research[19] December 2020 233
de Jager, C. and Duhau, S. [20] December 2020 160 ± 8 (2025 ± 1)
(Actual) present >125 December 2019 -

Early signs

Time vs. solar latitude diagram of the radial component of the solar magnetic field (supersynoptic map or “butterfly” diagram) for cycle 24 based on the (zero-point corrected) integer rotation synoptic maps from GONG. Blue/red show negative/positive polarity fields scaled between ±5 Gauss. Two black arrows mark approximate location of two latitudinal bands of cycle 25. Data are acquired by GONG instruments operated by NISP/NSO/AURA/NSF.

As of April 2018, the Sun showed signs of a reverse magnetic polarity sunspot appearing and beginning this solar cycle.[21] It is typical during the transition from one cycle to the next to experience a period where sunspots of both polarities exist (during the solar minimum). The polarward reversed polarity sunspots suggested that a transition to cycle 25 was in process.[22] The first cycle 25 sunspot may have appeared in early April 2018[23][24] or even December 2016.[22]

In November 2019, two reversed polarity sunspots appeared, possibly signaling the onset of cycle 25.[25][26]

Nandy et al., analyzed the polarity orientation of bipolar magnetic regions observed in December 2019 and concluded that magnetic regions with the underlying orientation of solar cycle 25 toroidal field component were brewing in the solar convection zone, representing early signs of the new cycle.[27]

Supersynoptic (time vs. solar latitude) map of the radial component of the solar magnetic field for cycles 24-25 based on observations from the Global Oscillations Network Group (GONG) shows magnetic activity of cycle 25 beginning November 2019 at about 30 degree latitudes in both solar hemispheres.[28] A more recent supersynoptic map is available.[29]

The following table gives the number of days so far in cycle 25 against the number up to the same point in cycle 24, and also up to the end of 2012 in cycle 24, which have passed various thresholds for the numbers of sunspots.

Counts SC 24
to Dec 31 2012 		SC 24
to Sep 22 2012 		SC 25
to Sep 22 2023
≥75 sunspots 399 353 494
≥100 241 223 334
≥125 116 109 207
≥150 39 39 99
≥175 6 6 41
≥200 0 0 13
≥225 0 0 2


As at Sep 22 2023, solar cycle 25 is averaging 25% more spots per day than solar cycle 24 at the same point in the cycle (Sep 22 2012).
Year 4 of solar cycle 25 (Dec 1 2022 to Sep 22 2023) is averaging 45% more spots per day than the corresponding period in solar cycle 24.

Events

Solar flares by year
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The strongest flares of Solar Cycle 25 (above M5.0 class) and related events
Class Date Sunspot region Radio B. SR Storm CME GM Storm
X5.01 2023‑12‑31 3536 R3 S1 Yes ?
X2.87 2023‑12‑14 3514 R3 S1 Yes ?
X2.28 2023‑02‑17 3229 R3 - Yes -
X2.25 2022‑04‑20 2992 R3 - Yes -
X2.07 2023‑03‑03 3234 R3 - Yes -
X1.98 2023‑01‑09 3184 R3 - No -
X1.63 2023‑08‑05 3386 R3 S1 Yes -
X1.59 2021‑07‑03 2838 R3 - Yes -
X1.51 2022‑05‑10 3006 R3 - No -
X1.51 2023‑08‑07 3386 R3 S1 Yes -
X1.38 2022‑03‑30 2975 R3 S1 Yes G1
X1.27 2023‑03‑29 3256 R3 - Yes -
X1.22 2023‑01‑06 3182 R3 - No -
X1.17 2022‑04‑17 2994 R3 - Yes -
X1.16 2023‑02‑11 3217 R3 - No -
X1.13 2022‑04‑30 2994 R3 - Yes -
X1.13 2022‑05‑03 3006 R3 - No -
X1.11 2023‑06‑20 3341 R3 - Yes -
X1.08 2023‑07‑02 3354 R3 - No -
X1.06 2022‑10‑02 3110 R3 - Yes -
X1.06 2023‑01‑10 3186 R3 - Yes -
X1.0 2021‑10‑28 2887 R3 S1 Yes -
M9.82 2023‑11‑28 3500 R2 - Yes ?
M9.67 2022‑03‑31 2975 R2 - Yes -
M9.66 2022‑04‑21 2993 R2 - Yes -
M9.62 2023‑05‑16 3310 R2 - No -
M8.96 2023‑05‑20 3311 R2 - No -
M8.77 2022‑10‑02 3110 R2 - Yes G1
M8.72 2023‑09‑21 3435 R2 - Yes G2
M8.67 2022‑08‑29 3088 R2 - No -
M8.62 2023‑02‑28 3234 R2 - Yes -
M8.23 2023‑09‑20 3435 R2 - No -
M7.92 2022‑09‑16 3098 R2 - No -
M7.29 2022‑04‑20 2992 R2 - Yes -
M7.27 2023‑05‑03 3293 R2 - No -
M7.24 2022‑08‑26 3089 R2 - Yes -
M7.12 2023‑05‑01 3288 R2 - No -
M6.97 2023‑07‑12 3372 R2 - No -
M6.97 2023‑12‑15 3514 R2 - Yes ?
M6.83 2023‑07‑11 3368 R2 - No -
M6.83 2024-01-29 3559 R2 S2 Yes ?
M6.73 2022‑08‑28 3088 R2 - Yes -
M6.57 2023‑05‑09 3296 R2 - Yes -
M6.5 2023‑05‑20 3311 R2 - No -
M6.39 2023‑02‑07 3213 R2 - No -
M6.36 2022‑12‑14 3165 R2 - No -
M6.35 2023‑02‑25 3229 R2 S1 Yes G3
M6.2 2022‑09‑16 3098 R2 - No -
M6.03 2023‑01‑15 3191 R2 - Yes -
M6.01 2023‑09‑03 3413 R2 - Yes -
M5.86 2022‑10‑01 3110 R2 - Yes G1
M5.86 2023‑07‑11 3372 R2 - No -
M5.84 2023‑12‑14 3514 R2 - Yes ?
M5.8 2023‑03‑06 3243 R2 - Yes -
M5.76 2022‑05‑04 3004 R2 - No -
M5.74 2022‑12‑15 3165 R2 - No -
M5.72 2023‑07‑17 3363 R2 S2 Yes -
M5.68 2023‑05‑20 3311 R2 - No -
M5.67 2023‑01‑11 3184 R2 - Yes -
M5.54 2022‑05‑19 3014 R2 - No -
M5.51 2023‑08‑06 3386 R2 - Yes -
M5.5 2022‑01‑20 2929 R2 S1 Yes -
M5.49 2023‑12‑08 3511 R2 - No -
M5.41 2023‑03‑30 3256 R2 S0 Yes -
M5.39 2022‑08‑26 3089 R2 - No -
M5.39 2023‑05‑19 3311 R2 - No -
M5.32 2022‑05‑04 3006 R2 - No -
M5.27 2022‑03‑04 3234 R2 - Yes -
M5.25 2022‑11‑07 3141 R2 - No -
M5.2 2023‑05‑20 3311 R2 - No -
M5.15 2023‑01‑10 3186 R2 S0 Yes -
M5.12 2024-01-23 3559 R2 - Yes ?
M5.09 2023‑02‑21 3234 R2 - Yes -
M5.08 2022‑08‑16 3078 R2 - No -
M5.04 2023‑03‑05 3243 R2 - No -
M5.02 2023‑05‑09 3296 R2 - No -
Number of days at geomagnetic storm intensity[30]
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2020

Solar flares in 2020[31]
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Number of days at geomagnetic storm intensity in 2020[31]
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On 29 May, the first C-class solar flares of Solar Cycle 25 took place, as well as the first M-class flare. Solar activity continued to increase in the following months, especially abruptly in October, with flares taking place on a near-daily basis by November. On 29 November, an M4.4 flare, the strongest of the cycle to date, took place, possibly indicating the solar cycle would be more active than initially thought.[32]

On 8 December, a small coronal mass ejection was found heading directly towards Earth shortly after a strong C-class solar flare, hitting the planet on 9-10 December and causing bright aurorae at high latitudes.[33][34]


2021

Solar flares in 2021[35]
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Number of days at geomagnetic storm intensity in 2021[35]
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The first X-class solar flare of the cycle took place on 3 July, peaking at X1.59.[36]

On 22 July, a total of six different active regions were seen on the solar disk for the first time since 6 September 2017.[37]

On 9 October, a M1.6 class solar flare erupted sending a coronal mass ejection that hit earth on 12 October triggering a (moderate) G2 geomagnetic storm.[38]

The second X-class flare of the solar cycle erupted on 28 October, producing a CME and a S1 solar radiation storm.[39] Reports initially predicted that the CME could graze Earth,[39] however geomagnetic storms on 30-31 October only reached a moderate Kp index of 4.[40]

On 3 and 4 November, the Kp index reached 8-, equivalent to a G4 geomagnetic storm.[41] This was the most intense geomagnetic storm to hit Earth since September 2017.

2022

Solar flares in 2022[30]
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Number of days at geomagnetic storm intensity in 2022[30]
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In late March, sunspot region 2975 released X1.3 and M9.6 flares, the former causing a G1 geomagnetic storm on 31 March despite being near the solar limb.[42] The region rotated out of view of Earth on 5 April, but helioseismic measurements on April 8 showed it still active on the far side of the Sun.[43] On 12 April, a Coronal Mass Ejection on the far side likely erupted from the region,[44] with helioseismic measurements showing the region to have intensified since crossing over the limb. As the region began rotating into view from Earth, a possibly X-class flare occurred on 15 April.[45]

After rotating to the visible hemisphere of the Sun, the regions of the sunspot complex were designated 2993 through 2996. On 17 April, sunspot group 2994 released an X1.2 flare.[46][47] However, the complex's activity subsided slightly in the next few days.[48] While crossing the solar limb, sunspot region 2992 emitted M7.3 and X2.2 flares, the latter being the strongest of the cycle up to that point.[48]

2023

Solar flares in 2023[49]
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Number of days at geomagnetic storm intensity in 2023[49]
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On December 14, a solar flare measuring X2.87 was recorded from sunspot region 3514, making it the strongest solar flare of the cycle for just 17 days,[50] as on December 31, a solar flare measuring X5.0 was recorded from sunspot 3536.[51]

2024

Solar flares in 2024[52]
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See also

References

  1. ↑ "Sunspot Number and Long-term Solar Observations: on-line Sunspot Number catalogue". SILSO, World Data Center. Royal Observatory of Belgium. https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/home. 
  2. ↑ National Weather Service. "Hello Solar Cycle 25". https://www.weather.gov/news/201509-solar-cycle. Retrieved 15 September 2020. 
  3. ↑ Odenwald, Sten (2016-09-02). "Waiting for the next sunspot cycle: 2019-2030". The Huffington Post. https://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-sten-odenwald/waiting-for-the-next-suns_b_11812282.html. Retrieved 2017-11-22. 
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 McIntosh, Scott W.; Wang, Xin; Leamon, Robert J.; Davey, Alisdair R.; Howe, Rachel; Krista, Larisza D.; Malanushenko, Anna V.; Markel, Robert S. et al. (8 August 2014). "Deciphering Solar magnetic activity: On the relationship between the sunspot cycle and the evolution of small magnetic features". The Astrophysical Journal 792 (1): 12. doi:10.1088/0004-637X/792/1/12. Bibcode: 2014ApJ...792...12M. 
  5. ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 Upton, Lisa A.; Hathaway, David H. (28 August 2018). "An updated solar cycle 25 prediction with AFT: The modern minimum". Geophysical Research Letters 45 (16): 8091–8095. doi:10.1029/2018GL078387. Bibcode: 2018GeoRL..45.8091U. 
  6. ↑ Kitiashvili et al.[full citation needed]
  7. ↑ 7.0 7.1 7.2 Bhowmik, Prantika; Nandy, Dibyendu (6 December 2018). "Prediction of the strength and timing of sunspot cycle 25 reveal decadal-scale space environmental conditions". Nature Communications 9 (1): 5209. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-07690-0. PMID 30523260. Bibcode: 2018NatCo...9.5209B. 
  8. ↑ 8.0 8.1 Li, F.Y.; Kong, D.F.; Xie, J.L.; Xiang, N.B.; Xu, J.C. (December 2018). "Solar cycle characteristics and their application in the prediction of cycle 25". Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 181: 110–115. doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2018.10.014. Bibcode: 2018JASTP.181..110L. 
  9. ↑ 9.0 9.1 Sarp, V; Kilcik, A; Yurchyshyn, V; Rozelot, J P; Ozguc, A (December 2018). "Prediction of solar cycle 25: a non-linear approach". Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 481 (3): 2981–2985. doi:10.1093/mnras/sty2470. Bibcode: 2018MNRAS.481.2981S. 
  10. ↑ McIntosh, Scott W.; Chapman, Sandra C.; Leamon, Robert J.; Egeland, Ricky; Watkins, Nicholas W. (2020-06-26). "Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot Number: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude". Solar Physics 295 (12): 163. doi:10.1007/s11207-020-01723-y. Bibcode: 2020SoPh..295..163M. 
  11. ↑ "Solar Cycle 25 Forecast Update | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center". https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/solar-cycle-25-forecast-update. 
  12. ↑ "Solar Cycle 25 Continues to Strengthen Rapidly". climateimpactcompany.com. 10 July 2022. https://climateimpactcompany.com/solar-cycle-25-continues-to-strengthen-rapidly-3/. 
  13. ↑ Shepherd, Simon J.; Zharkov, Sergei I.; Zharkova, Valentina V. (13 October 2014). "Prediction of solar activity from solar background magnetic field variations in cycles 21–23". The Astrophysical Journal 795 (1): 46. doi:10.1088/0004-637X/795/1/46. Bibcode: 2014ApJ...795...46S. 
  14. ↑ Kunches, Joe (2019-04-11). "Scientists predict a new solar cycle is about to begin and that it might be stronger than the last one". Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/04/11/scientists-predict-new-solar-cycle-is-about-begin-that-it-will-be-stronger-than-last-one/. 
  15. ↑ "Solar activity forecast for next decade favorable for exploration". NASA Ames. 12 June 2019. https://www.nasa.gov/feature/ames/solar-activity-forecast-for-next-decade-favorable-for-exploration. 
  16. ↑ "SOLAR CYCLE 25 FORECAST UPDATE". SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER - NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION. 2019-12-09. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/solar-cycle-25-forecast-update. 
  17. ↑ 17.0 17.1 McIntosh, Scott W.; Chapman, Sandra C.; Leamon, Robert J.; Egeland, Ricky; Watkins, Nicholas W. (December 2020). "Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot Number: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude". Solar Physics 295 (12): 163. doi:10.1007/s11207-020-01723-y. Bibcode: 2020SoPh..295..163M. 
  18. ↑ 18.0 18.1 "Solar Cycle 25: The Overachiever". https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/466/20220411-solar-cycle-25-the-overachiever.html. 
  19. ↑ Cappucci, Matthew (2020-12-19). "Maverick astrophysicist calls for unusually intense solar cycle, straying from consensus view". The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/12/19/solar-cycle-prediction-mcintosh/. 
  20. ↑ de Jager, Kees (2020-12-01). "Solar magnetic variability and climate". Stip Media. https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2020smvc.book.....D%2F/abstract. 
  21. ↑ "Coronal hole faces Earth" (in en). https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/338/20180417-coronal-hole-faces-earth. 
  22. ↑ 22.0 22.1 Phillips, Tony (November 20, 2018). "A sunspot from the next solar cycle". https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2018/11/20/a-sunspot-from-the-next-solar-cycle/. 
  23. ↑ "Cycle 25 observations in SDO HMI imagery" (in en). http://www.solen.info/solar/cycle25_spots.html. 
  24. ↑ Hudson, Hugh (10 April 2018). "A sunspot from cycle 25 for sure". RHESSI project. http://sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu/~tohban/wiki/index.php/A_Sunspot_from_Cycle_25_for_sure. 
  25. ↑ "Do we see a dawn of solar cycle 25?". 25 November 2019. https://www.nso.edu/blog/do-we-see-a-dawn-of-solar-cycle-25/. 
  26. ↑ "Spaceweather.com Time Machine". https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=24&month=12&year=2019. 
  27. ↑ Nandy, Dibyendu; Bhatnagar, Aditi; Pal, Sanchita (2 March 2020). "Sunspot Cycle 25 is Brewing: Early Signs Herald its Onset". Research Notes of the AAS 4 (2): 30. doi:10.3847/2515-5172/ab79a1. Bibcode: 2020RNAAS...4...30N. 
  28. ↑ Pevtsov, Alexei A.; Bertello, Luca; Nagovitsyn, Yury A.; Tlatov, Andrey G.; Pipin, Valery V. (22 January 2021). "Long-term studies of photospheric magnetic fields on the Sun". J. Space Weather Space Clim. 11: 4. doi:10.1051/swsc/2020069. Bibcode: 2021JSWSC..11....4P. 
  29. ↑ Pevtsov, Alexei (13 March 2021). "Time vs. solar latitude diagram of the radial component of the solar magnetic field (supersynoptic map of "butterfly" diagram". https://gonewithsolarwind.com/index.php/images/. 
  30. ↑ 30.0 30.1 30.2 "Aurora and solar activity archive". https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/archive/2022/01.html. 
  31. ↑ 31.0 31.1 "Aurora and solar activity archive". https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/archive/2020/01.html. 
  32. ↑ "M4.44 solar flare". spaceweatherlive.com. 29 November 2020. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/420/20201129-m4-44-solar-flare.html. 
  33. ↑ "Earth-directed coronal mass ejection". spaceweatherlive.com. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/423/20201208-earth-directed-coronal-mass-ejection.html. 
  34. ↑ Van Dam, Derek (9 December 2020). "Sun launches explosion of electromagnetic energy towards Earth: Geomagnetic Storm Watch issued". CNN (CNN). https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/09/us/northern-lights-display-wednesday-night-scn/index.html. 
  35. ↑ 35.0 35.1 "Aurora and solar activity archive". https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/archive/2021/01.html. 
  36. ↑ "First X-class solar flare of Solar Cycle 25". Space Weather Live. 3 July 2021. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/436/20210703-first-x-class-solar-flare-of-solar-cycle-25.html. 
  37. ↑ "Solar max might come a bit early". https://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=03&month=08&year=2021. 
  38. ↑ "Geomagnetic Storm: Solar Eruption Arrives at Earth". 16 October 2021. https://scitechdaily.com/geomagnetic-storm-solar-eruption-arrives-at-earth/. 
  39. ↑ 39.0 39.1 "Sun Unleashes Major X-class Solar Flare". 28 October 2021. https://www.space.com/sun-unleashes-major-x-class-solar-flare-october-2021. 
  40. ↑ "The aurora and solar activity archive - October 2021". https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/archive/2021/10.html. 
  41. ↑ "Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 November 2021". https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/archive/2021/11/04/kp.html. 
  42. ↑ "X1.3 solar flare". https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/462/20220330-x1-3-solar-flare.html. 
  43. ↑ "What's happening on farside of the Sun?". https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=09&month=04&year=2022. 
  44. ↑ "Farside explosion targets MErcury". https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=12&month=04&year=2022. 
  45. ↑ "An active sunspot is approaching". https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=15&month=04&year=2022. 
  46. ↑ "X-class solar flare (updated)". https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=17&month=04&year=2022. 
  47. ↑ "X1.1 solar flare". https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/468/20220417-x1-1-solar-flare.html. 
  48. ↑ 48.0 48.1 "M7.3 and X2.2 solar flares". https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/469/20220420-m7-3-and-x2-2-solar-flares.html. 
  49. ↑ 49.0 49.1 "Aurora and solar activity archive". https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/archive/2023/01.html. 
  50. ↑ "Major X2.8 solar flare". SpaceWeatherLive. December 14, 2023. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/514/20231214-major-x2-8-solar-flare.html. Retrieved December 15, 2023. 
  51. ↑ "Major X5.0 solar flare". SpaceWeatherLive. January 1, 2024. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/517/20240101-major-x5-0-solar-flare.html. 
  52. ↑ "Aurora and solar activity archive". https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/archive/2024/01.html. 

External links



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