Astronomy:Solar cycle 25

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Short description: Solar activity from 2019 to about 2030
Solar cycle 25
ISES Solar Cycle 25 sunspot number progression up to September 2025
Sunspot data
Start dateDecember 2019
End dateabout 2030
Max count216 (not smoothed)
160.8 (smoothed)
Max count monthAugust 2024 (not smoothed)[1] October 2024 (smoothed)[2]
Min count1.8
Cycle chronology
Previous cycleSolar cycle 24 (2008–2019)

Solar cycle 25 is the current solar cycle, the 25th since 1755, when extensive recording of solar sunspot activity began. It began in December 2019 with a minimum smoothed sunspot number of 1.8.[3] It is expected to continue until about 2030.[4][5] While it was initially predicted by most scientists that cycle 25 would be relatively weak, solar activity has been much stronger than the predictions.

Predictions

Widely varying predictions regarding the strength of cycle 25 ranged from very weak with suggestions of slow slide in to a Maunder minimum like state[6][7] to a weak cycle similar to previous cycle 24[8] and even a strong cycle.[9][10][11] Upton and Hathaway predicted that the weakness of cycle 25 would make it part of the Modern Gleissberg Minimum.[6]

The Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel predicted in December 2019[12] that solar cycle 25 will be similar to solar cycle 24, with the preceding solar cycle minimum in April 2020 (± 6 months), and the number of sunspots reaching a (smoothed) maximum of 115 in July 2025 (± 8 months). This prediction is in line with the current general agreement in the scientific literature, which holds that solar cycle 25 will be weaker than average (i.e. weaker than during the exceptionally strong Modern Maximum).[8] However, observations from 2020 to 2022, the first three years of the cycle, significantly exceeded predicted values.[13]

The prediction of the smoothed cycle maximum is within the error bar in 3 cases: De Jager, C. et al. used an improved method of Schove based on wavelets (it gives almost the exact value), Xu, J.C. et al. a modified bimodal distribution method (it gives the exact month of the maximum) and Ozguc, et al. the empirical dynamical modelling method.

Cycle 25 predictions
Source Date Cycle max Cycle start Cycle end
Thompson, M.J. et al.[5] August 2014 Q4 2019
Zharkova, V. et al 2014, 2015.[14] (Northumbria U.) October 2014 65 (80% of cycle 24)
Upton, L.A. and Hathaway, D.H.[6] (Solar Observatories Group, Stanford University) December 2018 78 (95% of cycle 24) Late 2020 – Early 2021
Xu, J.C. et al.[9] (Chinese Academy of Sciences) August 2018 168.5 ± 16.3 (2024) October 2020
Bhowmik, P. and Nandy, D.[8] (IISER Kolkata) December 2018 124 ± 15 (2023–2025) 2020 after 2031
Ozguc, A. et al.[10] (Harvard U-ty) December 2018 154 ± 12 (2023.2±1.1)
NOAA / SSRC[15] April 2019 117 ± 23 (2023–2026) mid-2019 – late 2020
NASA[16] June 2019 70 ± 29 (30–50% lower than Cycle 24 (2025)) 2020
NOAA / SSRC (update)[17] December 2019 115 ± 10 (July 2025) April 2020 (± 6 months)
Mcintosh et al.[18][19] June 2020 229 ± 25
Mcintosh et al.[18][19] December 2020 190 ± 20
National Center for Atmospheric Research[20] December 2020 233
de Jager, C. and Duhau, S. [21] December 2020 160 ± 8 (2025 ± 1)
Actual, for comparison Present >160.8 December 2019 –

Progress

Time vs. solar latitude diagram of the radial component of the solar magnetic field (supersynoptic map or “butterfly” diagram) for cycle 24 based on the (zero-point corrected) integer rotation synoptic maps from GONG. Blue/red show negative/positive polarity fields scaled between ±5 Gauss. Two black arrows mark approximate location of two latitudinal bands of cycle 25. Data are acquired by GONG instruments operated by NISP/NSO/AURA/NSF.

As of April 2018, the Sun showed signs of a reverse magnetic polarity sunspot appearing and beginning this solar cycle.[22] It is typical during the transition from one cycle to the next to experience a period where sunspots of both polarities exist (during the solar minimum). The polarward reversed polarity sunspots suggested that a transition to cycle 25 was in process.[23] The first cycle 25 sunspot may have appeared in early April 2018[24][25] or even December 2016.[23]

In November 2019, two reversed polarity sunspots appeared, possibly signaling the onset of cycle 25.[26][27]

Nandy et al., analyzed the polarity orientation of bipolar magnetic regions observed in December 2019 and concluded that magnetic regions with the underlying orientation of solar cycle 25 toroidal field component were brewing in the solar convection zone, representing early signs of the new cycle.[28]

Supersynoptic (time vs. solar latitude) map of the radial component of the solar magnetic field for cycles 24–25 based on observations from the Global Oscillations Network Group (GONG) shows magnetic activity of cycle 25 beginning November 2019 at about 30 degree latitudes in both solar hemispheres.[29] A more recent supersynoptic map is available.[30]

Solar Cycle 25 peaked in October 2024, with a Smoothed Sunspot Number of 161. SILSO stated: "For the coming years, another maximum remains a possibility, but it is unlikely it will be higher than the one in October last year because the Sun has completed its polar field reversal in 2023, and because the ongoing solar cycle is already 5.5 years in progress."

The following table gives the number of days so far in cycle 25 against the number up to the same point in cycle 24, which have passed various thresholds for the numbers of sunspots.

Counts SC 24
to Dec 1, 2014
SC 25
to Dec 1, 2025
≥100 622 947
≥125 327 662
≥150 123 406
≥175 30 200
≥200 3 98
≥225 0 36
≥250 0 16
≥275 0 5

As at Dec 1, 2025, solar cycle 25 is averaging 31% more spots per day than solar cycle 24 at the same point in the cycle (Dec 1, 2014).

  • Year 1 of SC25 (Dec 2019 to Nov 2020) averaged 101% more spots per day than year 1 of SC24.
  • Year 2 of SC25 (Dec 2020 to Nov 2021) averaged 7% more spots per day than year 2 of SC24.
  • Year 3 of SC25 (Dec 2021 to Nov 2022) averaged 8% more spots per day than year 3 of SC24.
  • Year 4 of SC25 (Dec 2022 to Nov 2023) averaged 41% more spots per day than year 4 of SC24.
  • Year 5 of SC25 (Dec 2023 to Nov 2024) averaged 71% more spots per day than year 5 of SC24.
  • Year 6 of SC25 (Dec 2024 to Nov 2025) averaged 10% more spots per day than year 6 of SC24.

Events

The strongest flares of Solar Cycle 25 (above M5.0 class) and related events

Class Date Sunspot
region
Radio B. SR Storm CME GM Storm
X9.05 2024-10-03 3842 R3 – Yes G2
X8.79 2024-05-14 3664 R3 – Yes ?
X8.11 2026-02-02 4366 R3 – Yes –
X7.15 2024-10-01 3842 R3 – Yes –
X6.37 2024-02-23 3590 R3 – No –
X5.89 2024-05-11 3664 R3 S2 Yes ?
X5.16 2025-11-11 4274 R3 S2 Yes ?
X5.01 2023‑12‑31 3536 R3 S1 Yes –
X4.54 2024-09-14 3825 R3 S1 Yes G3
X4.52 2024-05-06 3663 R3 – Yes G5
X4.05 2025-11-14 4274 R3 – Yes G1
X3.98 2024-05-10 3664 R3 S2 Yes G5
X3.48 2024-05-15 3664 R3 – Yes ?
X3.38 2024-02-09 3575 R3 S2 Yes –
X3.33 2024-10-24 3869 R3 S0 Yes –
X2.99 2024-05-15 3685 R3 S1 Yes ?
X2.9 2024-05-27 3697 R3 – Yes –
X2.87 2023‑12‑14 3514 R3 S1 Yes G1
X2.7 2025-05-14 4087 R3 – Yes ?
X2.56 2024-02-16 3576 R3 S0 Yes –
X2.39 2024-11-06 3883 R3 – Yes G2
X2.29 2024-12-08 3912 R3 – Yes –
X2.28 2023‑02‑17 3229 R3 – Yes –
X2.25 2022‑04‑20 2992 R3 – Yes –
X2.25 2024-05-09 3664 R3 S2 Yes G5
X2.2 2024-12-08 3912 R3 – Yes –
X2.19 2024-10-07 3842 R3 S0 Yes G3
X2.07 2023‑03‑03 3234 R3 – Yes –
X2.03 2024-10-31 3878 R3 – Yes –
X2.03 2025-02-23 4001 R3 S0 Yes G1
X2.0 2024-07-16 3738 R3 – Yes ?
X1.98 2023‑01‑09 3184 R3 – No –
X1.95 2025-12-01 4299 R3 – Yes –
X1.91 2025-06-19 4114 R3 – Yes –
X1.9 2024-02-21 3590 R3 – No –
X1.86 2024-10-26 3872 R3 S2 Yes G1
X1.85 2025-01-04 3947 R3 – Yes –
X1.84 2024-10-09 3848 R3 S3 Yes G5
X1.8 2025-11-04 4274 R3 – Yes –
X1.73 2024-08-05 3767 R3 S0 Yes –
X1.72 2024-05-14 3664 R3 – Yes ?
X1.7 2024-02-22 3590 R3 – No –
X1.7 2025-11-09 4274 R3 – Yes –
X1.69 2024-05-02 3663 R3 – Yes –
X1.63 2023‑08‑05 3386 R3 S1 Yes –
X1.59 2021‑07‑03 2838 R3 – Yes –
X1.59 2024-12-30 3936 R3 S0 Yes G4
X1.57 2024-07-29 3764 R3 – No –
X1.55 2024-06-10 3697 R3 – Yes ?
X1.54 2024-05-11 3664 R3 – No –
X1.51 2022‑05‑10 3006 R3 – No –
X1.51 2023‑08‑07 3386 R3 S1 Yes –
X1.45 2024-05-29 3697 R3 S0 Yes ?
X1.43 2024-06-01 3697 R3 – No –
X1.43 2024-10-09 3842 R3 – Yes G4
X1.38 2022‑03‑30 2975 R3 S1 Yes G1
X1.32 2024-05-05 3663 R3 – No –
X1.31 2024-08-08 3777 R3 – Yes –
X1.3 2024-09-12 3825 R3 – No –
X1.29 2024-05-05 3663 R3 – No –
X1.27 2023‑03‑29 3256 R3 – Yes –
X1.27 2024-07-14 3738 R3 – No –
X1.27 2025-06-17 4114 R3 – No –
X1.25 2024-05-14 3664 R3 – Yes ?
X1.22 2023‑01‑06 3182 R3 – No –
X1.21 2025-01-03 3947 R3 – Yes G1
X1.21 2025-05-13 4086 R3 S0 Yes ?
X1.21 2025-11-10 4274 R3 – Yes –
X1.18 2024-05-31 3697 R3 – No –
X1.17 2022‑04‑17 2994 R3 – Yes –
X1.17 2024-08-05 3780 R3 – No –
X1.16 2023‑02‑11 3217 R3 – No –
X1.14 2025-01-03 3947 R3 – Yes G1
X1.14 2025-03-28 4046 R3 – Yes –
X1.14 2025-12-08 4298 R3 – Yes –
X1.13 2022‑04‑30 2994 R3 – Yes –
X1.13 2022‑05‑03 3006 R3 – No –
X1.12 2024-03-23 3614 R3 S2 Yes G4
X1.12 2024-03-29 3615 R3 – Yes –
X1.12 2025-05-25 4098 R3 – Yes –
X1.12 2024-05-09 3664 R3 S2 Yes G5
X1.11 2023‑06‑20 3341 R3 – Yes –
X1.11 2024-08-14 3784 R3 – Yes –
X1.11 2024‑12-29 3936 R3 – Yes –
X1.1 2025-01-03 3947 R3 – No –
X1.1 2025-11-04 4276 R3 – Yes –
X1.08 2023‑07‑02 3354 R3 – No –
X1.08 2024-05-08 3663 R3 – No –
X1.06 2022‑10‑02 3110 R3 – Yes –
X1.06 2023‑01‑10 3186 R3 – Yes –
X1.04 2024-05-08 3663 R3 – Yes G5
X1.03 2024-06-01 3697 R3 ? ? ?
X1.02 2024-05-08 3664 R3 – No –
X1.02 2024-05-12 3664 R3 – No –
X1.02 2024-10-07 3842 R3 S0 Yes G3
X1.0 2021‑10‑28 2887 R3 S1 Yes –
M9.92 2024-07-28 3762 R2 – No –
M9.87 2024-05-08 3664 R2 – Yes G5
M9.82 2023‑11‑28 3500 R2 – Yes G3
M9.76 2024-03-28 3615 R2 – No –
M9.75 2024-06-08 3697 R2 S3 Yes ?
M9.67 2022‑03‑31 2975 R2 – Yes
M9.66 2022‑04‑21 2993 R2 – Yes –
M9.62 2023‑05‑16 3310 R2 No –
M9.56 2024-06-10 3697 R2 – Yes ?
M9.53 2023-04-30 3654 R2 – No –
M9.53 2024-10-26 3873 R2 – No –
M9.49 2024-11-10 3889 R2 – Yes –
M9.45 2024-11-25 3910 R2 – Yes –
M9.42 2024-03-30 3615 R2 – Yes –
M9.4 2024-07-30 3772 R2 – Yes –
M9.39 2024-03-30 3615 R2 – Yes –
M9.36 2024-06-23 3723 R2 – No –
M9.13 2024-05-04 3663 R2 – No –
M9.10 2024-05-04 3663 R2 – No –
M9.05 2024-12-23 3932 R2 – Yes –
M9.04 2024-02-10 3576 R2 S1 Yes –
M8.96 2023‑05‑20 3311 R2 – No –
M8.9 2025-05-25 4098 R2 – Yes –
M8.88 2025-02-03 3981 R2 – No –
M8.87 2024-05-11 3664 R2 S2 Yes –
M8.77 2022‑10‑02 3110 R2 – Yes G1
M8.77 2024-07-29 3762 R2 – Yes ?
M8.72 2023‑09‑21 3435 R2 – Yes G2
M8.69 2024-05-08 3664 R2 – Yes G5
M8.67 2022‑08‑29 3088 R2 – No –
M8.65 2025-11-05 4274 R2 – Yes –
M8.62 2023‑02‑28 3234 R2 – Yes –
M8.42 2024-05-05 3663 R2 – No –
M8.4 2025-06-15 4114 R2 – Yes –
M8.29 2024-05-07 3663 R2 – No –
M8.24 2024-08-01 3772 R2 – No –
M8.23 2023‑09‑20 3435 R2 – No –
M8.2 2025-05-31 4100 R2 – Yes –
M8.12 2025-12-06 4299 R2 – Yes –
M7.92 2022‑09‑16 3098 R2 – No –
M7.92 2024-05-08 3664 R2 – No –
M7.88 2024-07-28 3766 R2 – No –
M7.79 2024-07-28 3762 R2 – No –
M7.77 2024-10-09 3842 R2 – No –
M7.75 2024-07-31 3772 R2 – No –
M7.74 2025-05-14 4087 R2 – No –
M7.69 2025-02-06 3981 R2 – Yes G1
M7.68 2024-09-30 3842 R2 – No –
M7.64 2025-01-04 3947 R2 – No –
M7.6 2025-02-07 3981 R2 – No –
M7.48 2024-03-20 3615 R2 – No –
M7.47 2024-05-05 3663 R2 – No –
M7.46 2025-01-17 3964 R2 – No –
M7.45 2025-11-05 4274 R2 – Yes –
M7.43 2024-03-10 3599 R2 S0 Yes –
M7.43 2024-08-02 3768 R2 – Yes G3
M7.35 2024-06-01 3697 R2 – Yes ?
M7.34 2024-12-26 3938 R2 – No –
M7.3 2024-08-03 3775 R2 – No –
M7.29 2022‑04‑20 2992 R2 – Yes –
M7.27 2023‑05‑03 3293 R2 – No –
M7.25 2024-05-17 3685 R2 ? Yes ?
M7.24 2022‑08‑26 3089 R2 – Yes –
M7.24 2024-10-30 3878 R2 – No –
M7.2 2025-12-31 4324 R2 – Yes –
M7.17 2024-05-08 3664 R2 – No –
M7.14 2024-12-29 3936 R2 – No –
M7.12 2023‑05‑01 3288 R2 – No –
M7.1 2024-03-28 3615 R2 – No –
M6.97 2023‑07‑12 3372 R2 – No –
M6.97 2023‑12‑15 3514 R2 – Yes G1
M6.87 2024-09-12 3811 R2 – Yes –
M6.83 2023‑07‑11 3368 R2 – No –
M6.83 2024-01-29 3559 R2 S2 Yes –
M6.8 2025-06-14 4105 R2 – Yes –
M6.77 2024-03-18 3615 R2 – No –
M6.76 2025-01-31 3978 R2 – Yes –
M6.73 2022‑08‑28 3088 R2 – Yes –
M6.71 2024-12-11 3912 R2 – No –
M6.66 2024-05-13 3664 R2 S2 Yes ?
M6.57 2023‑05‑09 3296 R2 – Yes –
M6.52 2024-10-19 3854 R2 – Yes –
M6.51 2024-07-29 3772 R2 – Yes –
M6.5 2023‑05‑20 3311 R2 – No –
M6.5 2024-02-12 3576 R2 – No –
M6.46 2024-12-10 3922 R2 – No –
M6.4 2025-06-16 4114 R2 – Yes –
M6.39 2023‑02‑07 3213 R2 – No –
M6.36 2022‑12‑14 3165 R2 – No –
M6.35 2023‑02‑25 3229 R2 S1 Yes G3
M6.2 2022‑09‑16 3098 R2 – No –
M6.17 2025-02-03 3981 R2 – No –
M6.14 2024-03-28 3615 R2 – No –
M6.14 2024-08-05 3780 R2 – Yes –
M6.12 2024-06-06 3697 R2 – No –
M6.07 2024-08-01 3772 R2 – No –
M6.07 2025-12-04 4300 R2 – No –
M6.04 2024-07-31 3772 R2 – No –
M6.03 2023‑01‑15 3191 R2 – Yes –
M6.01 2023‑09‑03 3413 R2 – Yes –
M5.97 2024-05-10 3664 R2 – No –
M5.96 2025-11-28 4294 R2 – Yes –
M5.89 2025-01-03 3947 R2 – Yes –
M5.86 2022‑10‑01 3110 R2 – Yes G1
M5.86 2023‑07‑11 3372 R2 – No –
M5.84 2023‑12‑14 3514 R2 – Yes G1
M5.8 2023‑03‑06 3243 R2 – Yes –
M5.76 2022‑05‑04 3004 R2 – No –
M5.76 2024-06-20 3719 R2 – No –
M5.74 2022‑12‑15 3165 R2 – No –
M5.73 2024-05-29 3691 R2 – No –
M5.72 2023‑07‑17 3363 R2 S2 Yes –
M5.68 2023‑05‑20 3311 R2 – No –
M5.67 2023‑01‑11 3184 R2 – Yes –
M5.61 2025-04-01 4046 R2 – No –
M5.59 2024-11-04 3883 R2 – Yes –
M5.57 2024-09-01 3813 R2 S0 Yes –
M5.54 2022‑05‑19 3014 R2 – No –
M5.51 2023‑08‑06 3386 R2 – Yes –
M5.5 2022‑01‑20 2929 R2 S1 Yes –
M5.49 2023‑12‑08 3511 R2 – No –
M5.47 2024-04-11 3639 R2 – Yes –
M5.46 2024-08-03 3775 R2 – No –
M5.41 2023‑03‑30 3256 R2 S0 Yes –
M5.41 2024-09-13 3811 R2 – No –
M5.39 2022‑08‑26 3089 R2 – No –
M5.39 2023‑05‑19 3311 R2 – No –
M5.39 2024-07-31 3772 R2 – No –
M5.35 2024-07-13 3738 R2 – No –
M5.34 2024-06-12 3697 R2 – No –
M5.32 2022‑05‑04 3006 R2 – No –
M5.32 2024-08-14 3790 R2 – No –
M5.32 2025-05-14 4087 R2 – No –
M5.31 2024-11-06 3889 R2 – No –
M5.3 2024-08-10 3780 R2 – No –
M5.28 2024-09-13 3811 R2 – No –
M5.27 2022‑03‑04 3234 R2 – Yes –
M5.25 2022‑11‑07 3141 R2 – No –
M5.2 2023‑05‑20 3311 R2 – No –
M5.18 2024-02-07 3575 R2 – Yes –
M5.18 2024-05-07 3663 R2 – No –
M5.18 2024-08-23 3800 R2 – No –
M5.15 2023‑01‑10 3186 R2 S0 Yes –
M5.15 2025-02-02 3977 R2 – No –
M5.15 2024-08-21 3796 R2 – No –
M5.12 2024-01-23 3559 R2 – Yes –
M5.09 2023‑02‑21 3234 R2 – Yes –
M5.08 2022‑08‑16 3078 R2 – No –
M5.07 2024-07-13 3738 R2 – No –
M5.05 2024-07-17 3743 R2 – No –
M5.04 2023‑03‑05 3243 R2 – No –
M5.03 2024-09-12 3811 R2 – No –
M5.02 2023‑05‑09 3296 R2 – No –
M5.02 2024-08-07 3777 R2 – Yes –
M5.01 2025-11-03 4274 R2 – Yes –

Farside flares (above M5.0 class) observed by STIX[31]

Class Date Sunspot
region
Class
(seen from
Earth)
X14 2024-07-22 3738 –
X12 2024-05-20 3664 –
X9 2023-07-16 3368 –
X9 2024-05-15 3664 X3.48
X9 2024-05-15 3664 –
X7 2024-07-24 3738 –
X6 2023-01-03 3182 C4.06
X6 2023-07-16 3368 –
X6 2023-12-31 3536 X5.01
X6 2024-05-17 3664 –
X5 2024-05-16 3664 –
X4 2023-09-08 3413 –
X4 2023-09-11 3413 –
X4 2024-09-09 3792 –
X3 2024-04-03 ? –
X3 2024-06-11 3697 –
X3 2024-06-13 3697 –
X3 2024-06-17 3697 –
X3 2024-09-03 3792 –
X2 2022-04-30 2994 M1.99
X2 2023-07-10 3354 –
X2 2024-02-02 ? –
X2 2024-05-14 3664 X1.25
X2 2024-08-20 ? –
X2 2024-09-05 3792 –
X1 2020-11-18 2786 –
X1 2022-05-01 2994 C1.9
X1 2022-08-29 3088 M8.68
X1 2022-08-30 3088 M1.7
X1 2022-08-30 3088 C7.18
X1 2022-09-29 3112 C5.76
X1 2022-12-27 3180 –
X1 2023-05-14 3310 –
X1 2023-05-23 3323 –
X1 2023-07-07 3354 –
X1 2023-07-08 3354 –
X1 2023-07-13 3360 –
X1 2023-07-14 3372 –
X1 2023-07-18 3368 –
X1 2023-07-24 ? –
X1 2024-05-25 3664 –
X1 2024-06-16 3697 –
X1 2024-07-24 3738 –
X1 2024-07-25 3738 –
X1 2024-07-27 3738 –
X1 2024-07-28 3738 –
X1 2024-08-02 3738 M1.33
X1 2024-08-04 3762 –
X1 2024-08-06 3762 –
X1 2024-08-20 ? –
X1 2024-08-21 ? –
X1 2024-11-25 3910 M9.45
X1 2024-12-30 ? M5.02
X1 2025-04-16 4043 –
M9 2022-05-05 2994 –
M9 2022-08-29 3088 M4.71
M9 2022-09-05 3088 –
M9 2022-09-11 3089 –
M9 2023-05-30 3323 –
M9 2023-06-01 3310 –
M9 2023-07-15 ? –
M9 2023-07-18 3368 –
M9 2024-07-23 3738 –
M8 2022-05-01 2994 –
M8 2022-05-10 2994 –
M8 2022-08-31 3088 –
M8 2022-09-10 3089 –
M8 2022-12-27 3180 –
M8 2023-05-14 3310 –
M8 2023-06-04 ? –
M8 2023-01-10 3549 C9.64
M8 2024-07-30 3738 –
M8 2024-08-05 3762 –
M8 2024-08-15 3796 –
M8 2024-08-20 ? –
M8 2024-08-23 ? –
M7 2022-01-12 ? –
M7 2022-01-25 ? C3.79
M7 2022-05-05 2994 –
M7 2022-05-10 2994 –
M7 2022-08-30 3088 C7.57
M7 2022-09-11 3089 –
M7 2023-01-10 3190 –
M7 2023-05-25 3323 –
M7 2023-07-11 3354 –
M7 2024-06-10 ? –
M7 2024-06-17 3697 –
M7 2024-08-17 ? –
M7 2024-09-05 3792 –
M7 2024-09-13 3811 M5.41
M7 2024-12-19 3928 M3.81
M7 2024-12-21 ? –
M6 2022-04-30 2994 M4.82
M6 2022-05-01 2994 –
M6 2022-05-01 2994 –
M6 2022-05-05 2994 –
M6 2022-09-17 3098 M2.61
M6 2023-02-14 3229 –
M6 2023-02-20 3234 M4.43
M6 2023-07-07 3354 –
M6 2023-07-09 3354 –
M6 2023-07-09 3354 –
M6 2023-07-09 3354 –
M6 2023-07-11 3372 M1.17
M6 2023-07-13 3360 –
M6 2023-07-19 3363 M3.81
M6 2023-07-22 3363 –
M6 2023-10-31 3477 –
M6 2024-01-10 3549 C7.01
M6 2024-06-13 3697 –
M6 2024-06-17 3697 –
M6 2024-07-29 3762 –
M6 2024-08-13 ? –
M6 2024-08-23 ? –
M6 2024-12-20 3928 M2.53
M6 2025-04-17 4043 –
M5 2021-07-15 ? –
M5 2022-04-19 2992 M3.71
M5 2022-05-17 3014 C9.91
M5 2022-08-29 3088 M2.58
M5 2022-09-01 3088 –
M5 2022-09-14 3089 –
M5 2022-09-29 3112 –
M5 2022-12-28 3180 C6.09
M5 2023-05-12 3310 –
M5 2023-05-16 3310 –
M5 2023-06-08 ? –
M5 2023-07-16 ? –
M5 2023-08-08 3387 M3.67
M5 2023-08-08 3387 –
M5 2024-05-12 3685 –
M5 2024-05-14 3685 –
M5 2024-05-16 3664 –
M5 2024-05-16 3664 –
M5 2024-05-22 3664 –
M5 2024-06-28 ? –
M5 2024-07-03 ? –
M5 2024-07-24 3738 –
M5 2024-08-23 ? –
M5 2024-08-24 ? –
M5 2024-12-15 3920 M3.11
M5 2025-04-15 4062 M1.52
M5 2025-05-19 ? M3.27
M5 2025-05-20 ? –
Solar flares by year
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Number of days at geomagnetic storm intensity[32]
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2020

Solar flares in 2020[33]
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Number of days at geomagnetic storm intensity in 2020[33]
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On 29 May, the first C-class solar flares of Solar Cycle 25 took place, as well as the first M-class flare. Solar activity continued to increase in the following months, especially abruptly in October, with flares taking place on a near-daily basis by November. On 29 November, an M4.4 flare, the strongest of the cycle to date, took place, possibly indicating that the solar cycle would be more active than initially thought.[34]

On 8 December, a small coronal mass ejection was found heading directly towards Earth shortly after a strong C-class solar flare, hitting the planet on 9–10 December and causing bright aurorae at high latitudes.[35][36]

2021

Solar flares in 2021[37]
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Number of days at geomagnetic storm intensity in 2021[37]
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The first X-class solar flare of the cycle took place on 3 July, peaking at X1.59.[38]

On 22 July, a total of six different active regions were seen on the solar disk for the first time since 6 September 2017.[39]

On 9 October, a M1.6 class solar flare erupted sending a coronal mass ejection that hit Earth on 12 October, triggering a (moderate) G2 geomagnetic storm.[40]

The second X-class flare of the solar cycle erupted on 28 October, producing a CME and a S1 solar radiation storm.[41] Reports initially predicted that the CME could graze Earth,[41] however geomagnetic storms on 30–31 October only reached a moderate Kp index of 4.[42]

On 3 and 4 November, the Kp index reached 8−, equivalent to a G4 geomagnetic storm.[43] This was the most intense geomagnetic storm to hit Earth since September 2017.

2022

Solar flares in 2022[32]
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Number of days at geomagnetic storm intensity in 2022[32]
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In late March, sunspot region 2975 released X1.3 and M9.6 flares, the former causing a G1 geomagnetic storm on 31 March despite being near the solar limb.[44] The region rotated out of view of Earth on 5 April, but helioseismic measurements on April 8 showed it still active on the far side of the Sun.[45] On 12 April, a Coronal Mass Ejection on the far side likely erupted from the region,[46] with helioseismic measurements showing the region to have intensified since crossing over the limb. As the region began rotating into view from Earth, a possibly X-class flare occurred on 15 April.[47]

After rotating to the visible hemisphere of the Sun, the regions of the sunspot complex were designated 2993 through 2996. On 17 April, sunspot group 2994 released an X1.2 flare.[48][49] However, the complex's activity subsided slightly in the next few days.[50] While crossing the solar limb, sunspot region 2992 emitted M7.3 and X2.2 flares, the latter being the strongest of the cycle up to that point.[50]

2023

Solar flares in 2023[51]
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Number of days at geomagnetic storm intensity in 2023[51]
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On 24 March, an intense geomagnetic storm hit Earth unexpectedly, reaching a level of G4 and producing auroras as far south as New Mexico. A minor CME from an M1 flare was predicted to hit the day earlier, but the timing and intensity were unexpected.[52] Later, on 23 and 24 April, more G4 storms hit Earth, on the former day being tied with several days in solar cycle 24 for the strongest storm since 2005.[53] Auroras were visible as far south as San Antonio, Texas.[54]

On 14 December, a solar flare measuring X2.87 was recorded from sunspot region 3514, making it the strongest solar flare of the cycle for just 17 days,[55] as on 31 December, a solar flare measuring X5.0 was recorded from sunspot 3536.[56]

2024

Solar flares in 2024[57]
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Number of days at geomagnetic storm intensity in 2024[57]
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On 9 February, region 3575 produced an X3.4 flare, the second strongest of the cycle up to that point, causing radiation levels to briefly exceed S2 over the following days.[58] On 12 February, after rotating to the far side of the Sun, the same region released a strong CME. As it was invisible from Earth, it was impossible to assess the flare's strength, but it nonetheless caused proton storm levels to briefly reach S2 again on February 12–13.

On 22 February, region 3590 produced a solar flare measuring X6.3.[59]

In May, the strongest solar storm in 20 years produced aurorae at far lower latitudes than usual. A few days later, on 14 May, region 3664 produced the strongest solar flare up to that point of the solar cycle, measuring X8.7.[60][61]

On 20 May 2024, an X12 solar flare produced x-rays and gamma rays that hit Mars, while a coronal mass ejection launched a solar wind.[62]

On 1 October 2024, an X7.1 solar flare occurred in sunspot region 3842, followed by an X9.0 solar flare just two days later.[63]

2025

Solar flares in 2025[64]
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Number of days at geomagnetic storm intensity in 2025[64]
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On November 11, region 4274 produced an X5.16, being the strongest flare in 2025 and the 6th largest in Solar Cycle 25. It also released a super-fast CME at 1950km per second. Because of this, NOAA SWPC issue a rare, G4 watch for the next day. It also created an S2 solar radiation storm which followed from an S1 solar radiation storm a few days prior.

See also

References

  1. ↑ "Solar Cycle Progression". NOAA. 2025-07-02. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression. 
  2. ↑ "Sunspot Number and Long-term Solar Observations: on-line Sunspot Number catalogue". SILSO, World Data Center. Royal Observatory of Belgium. https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/home. 
  3. ↑ National Weather Service. "Hello Solar Cycle 25". https://www.weather.gov/news/201509-solar-cycle. Retrieved 15 September 2020. 
  4. ↑ Odenwald, Sten (2016-09-02). "Waiting for the next sunspot cycle: 2019-2030". The Huffington Post. https://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-sten-odenwald/waiting-for-the-next-suns_b_11812282.html. Retrieved 2017-11-22. 
  5. ↑ 5.0 5.1 McIntosh, Scott W.; Wang, Xin; Leamon, Robert J.; Davey, Alisdair R.; Howe, Rachel; Krista, Larisza D.; Malanushenko, Anna V.; Markel, Robert S. et al. (8 August 2014). "Deciphering Solar magnetic activity: On the relationship between the sunspot cycle and the evolution of small magnetic features". The Astrophysical Journal 792 (1): 12. doi:10.1088/0004-637X/792/1/12. Bibcode: 2014ApJ...792...12M. 
  6. ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 Upton, Lisa A.; Hathaway, David H. (28 August 2018). "An updated solar cycle 25 prediction with AFT: The modern minimum". Geophysical Research Letters 45 (16): 8091–8095. doi:10.1029/2018GL078387. Bibcode: 2018GeoRL..45.8091U. 
  7. ↑ Kitiashvili, Irina N. (June 2019). "Global evolution of solar magnetic fields and prediction of activity cycles". Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union 15 (S354): 147–156. doi:10.1017/S174392132000071X. "According to this analysis, Solar Cycle 25 will be weaker than the current cycle and will start after an extended solar minimum during 2019 – 2021.". 
  8. ↑ 8.0 8.1 8.2 Bhowmik, Prantika; Nandy, Dibyendu (6 December 2018). "Prediction of the strength and timing of sunspot cycle 25 reveal decadal-scale space environmental conditions". Nature Communications 9 (1): 5209. doi:10.1038/s41467-018-07690-0. PMID 30523260. Bibcode: 2018NatCo...9.5209B. 
  9. ↑ 9.0 9.1 Li, F.Y.; Kong, D.F.; Xie, J.L.; Xiang, N.B.; Xu, J.C. (December 2018). "Solar cycle characteristics and their application in the prediction of cycle 25". Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 181: 110–115. doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2018.10.014. Bibcode: 2018JASTP.181..110L. 
  10. ↑ 10.0 10.1 Sarp, V; Kilcik, A; Yurchyshyn, V; Rozelot, J P; Ozguc, A (December 2018). "Prediction of solar cycle 25: a non-linear approach". Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 481 (3): 2981–2985. doi:10.1093/mnras/sty2470. Bibcode: 2018MNRAS.481.2981S. 
  11. ↑ McIntosh, Scott W.; Chapman, Sandra C.; Leamon, Robert J.; Egeland, Ricky; Watkins, Nicholas W. (2020-06-26). "Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot Number: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude". Solar Physics 295 (12): 163. doi:10.1007/s11207-020-01723-y. Bibcode: 2020SoPh..295..163M. 
  12. ↑ "Solar Cycle 25 Forecast Update | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center". https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/solar-cycle-25-forecast-update. 
  13. ↑ "Solar Cycle 25 Continues to Strengthen Rapidly". climateimpactcompany.com. 10 July 2022. https://climateimpactcompany.com/solar-cycle-25-continues-to-strengthen-rapidly-3/. 
  14. ↑ Shepherd, Simon J.; Zharkov, Sergei I.; Zharkova, Valentina V. (13 October 2014). "Prediction of solar activity from solar background magnetic field variations in cycles 21–23". The Astrophysical Journal 795 (1): 46. doi:10.1088/0004-637X/795/1/46. Bibcode: 2014ApJ...795...46S. 
  15. ↑ Kunches, Joe (2019-04-11). "Scientists predict a new solar cycle is about to begin and that it might be stronger than the last one". Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/04/11/scientists-predict-new-solar-cycle-is-about-begin-that-it-will-be-stronger-than-last-one/. 
  16. ↑ "Solar activity forecast for next decade favorable for exploration". NASA Ames. 12 June 2019. https://www.nasa.gov/feature/ames/solar-activity-forecast-for-next-decade-favorable-for-exploration. 
  17. ↑ "SOLAR CYCLE 25 FORECAST UPDATE". SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER – NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION. 2019-12-09. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/solar-cycle-25-forecast-update. 
  18. ↑ 18.0 18.1 McIntosh, Scott W.; Chapman, Sandra C.; Leamon, Robert J.; Egeland, Ricky; Watkins, Nicholas W. (December 2020). "Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot Number: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude". Solar Physics 295 (12): 163. doi:10.1007/s11207-020-01723-y. Bibcode: 2020SoPh..295..163M. 
  19. ↑ 19.0 19.1 "Solar Cycle 25: The Overachiever". https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/466/20220411-solar-cycle-25-the-overachiever.html. 
  20. ↑ Cappucci, Matthew (2020-12-19). "Maverick astrophysicist calls for unusually intense solar cycle, straying from consensus view". The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/12/19/solar-cycle-prediction-mcintosh/. 
  21. ↑ de Jager, Kees (2020-12-01). "Solar magnetic variability and climate". Stip Media. Bibcode: 2020smvc.book.....D. https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2020smvc.book.....D%2F/abstract. 
  22. ↑ "Coronal hole faces Earth" (in en). https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/338/20180417-coronal-hole-faces-earth. 
  23. ↑ 23.0 23.1 Phillips, Tony (November 20, 2018). "A sunspot from the next solar cycle". https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2018/11/20/a-sunspot-from-the-next-solar-cycle/. 
  24. ↑ "Cycle 25 observations in SDO HMI imagery" (in en). http://www.solen.info/solar/cycle25_spots.html. 
  25. ↑ Hudson, Hugh (10 April 2018). "A sunspot from cycle 25 for sure". RHESSI project. http://sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu/~tohban/wiki/index.php/A_Sunspot_from_Cycle_25_for_sure. 
  26. ↑ "Do we see a dawn of solar cycle 25?". 25 November 2019. https://www.nso.edu/blog/do-we-see-a-dawn-of-solar-cycle-25/. 
  27. ↑ "Spaceweather.com Time Machine". https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=24&month=12&year=2019. 
  28. ↑ Nandy, Dibyendu; Bhatnagar, Aditi; Pal, Sanchita (2 March 2020). "Sunspot Cycle 25 is Brewing: Early Signs Herald its Onset". Research Notes of the AAS 4 (2): 30. doi:10.3847/2515-5172/ab79a1. Bibcode: 2020RNAAS...4...30N. 
  29. ↑ Pevtsov, Alexei A.; Bertello, Luca; Nagovitsyn, Yury A.; Tlatov, Andrey G.; Pipin, Valery V. (22 January 2021). "Long-term studies of photospheric magnetic fields on the Sun". J. Space Weather Space Clim. 11: 4. doi:10.1051/swsc/2020069. Bibcode: 2021JSWSC..11....4P. 
  30. ↑ Pevtsov, Alexei (13 March 2021). "Time vs. solar latitude diagram of the radial component of the solar magnetic field (supersynoptic map of "butterfly" diagram". https://gonewithsolarwind.com/index.php/images/. 
  31. ↑ "STIX solar flare list". https://datacenter.stix.i4ds.net/view/flares/list. 
  32. ↑ 32.0 32.1 32.2 "Aurora and solar activity archive". https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/archive/2022/01.html. 
  33. ↑ 33.0 33.1 "Aurora and solar activity archive". https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/archive/2020/01.html. 
  34. ↑ "M4.44 solar flare". spaceweatherlive.com. 29 November 2020. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/420/20201129-m4-44-solar-flare.html. 
  35. ↑ "Earth-directed coronal mass ejection". spaceweatherlive.com. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/423/20201208-earth-directed-coronal-mass-ejection.html. 
  36. ↑ Van Dam, Derek (9 December 2020). "Sun launches explosion of electromagnetic energy towards Earth: Geomagnetic Storm Watch issued". CNN (CNN). https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/09/us/northern-lights-display-wednesday-night-scn/index.html. 
  37. ↑ 37.0 37.1 "Aurora and solar activity archive". https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/archive/2021/01.html. 
  38. ↑ "First X-class solar flare of Solar Cycle 25". Space Weather Live. 3 July 2021. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/436/20210703-first-x-class-solar-flare-of-solar-cycle-25.html. 
  39. ↑ "Solar max might come a bit early". https://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=03&month=08&year=2021. 
  40. ↑ "Geomagnetic Storm: Solar Eruption Arrives at Earth". 16 October 2021. https://scitechdaily.com/geomagnetic-storm-solar-eruption-arrives-at-earth/. 
  41. ↑ 41.0 41.1 "Sun Unleashes Major X-class Solar Flare". 28 October 2021. https://www.space.com/sun-unleashes-major-x-class-solar-flare-october-2021. 
  42. ↑ "The aurora and solar activity archive – October 2021". https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/archive/2021/10.html. 
  43. ↑ "Viewing archive of Thursday, 4 November 2021". https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/archive/2021/11/04/kp.html. 
  44. ↑ "X1.3 solar flare". https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/462/20220330-x1-3-solar-flare.html. 
  45. ↑ "What's happening on farside of the Sun?". https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=09&month=04&year=2022. 
  46. ↑ "Farside explosion targets MErcury". https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=12&month=04&year=2022. 
  47. ↑ "An active sunspot is approaching". https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=15&month=04&year=2022. 
  48. ↑ "X-class solar flare (updated)". https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=17&month=04&year=2022. 
  49. ↑ "X1.1 solar flare". https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/468/20220417-x1-1-solar-flare.html. 
  50. ↑ 50.0 50.1 "M7.3 and X2.2 solar flares". https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/469/20220420-m7-3-and-x2-2-solar-flares.html. 
  51. ↑ 51.0 51.1 "Aurora and solar activity archive". https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/archive/2023/01.html. 
  52. ↑ "Spaceweather.com Time Machine". https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=24&month=03&year=2023. 
  53. ↑ Phillips, Tony (23 April 2023). "An Earth-Directed Explosion on the Sun" (in en). Spaceweather.com. https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2023/04/23/an-earth-directed-explosion-on-the-sun/. 
  54. ↑ "Spaceweather.com Time Machine". https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=24&month=04&year=2023. 
  55. ↑ "Major X2.8 solar flare". SpaceWeatherLive. December 14, 2023. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/514/20231214-major-x2-8-solar-flare.html. Retrieved December 15, 2023. 
  56. ↑ "Major X5.0 solar flare". SpaceWeatherLive. January 1, 2024. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/517/20240101-major-x5-0-solar-flare.html. 
  57. ↑ 57.0 57.1 "Aurora and solar activity archive". https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/archive/2024/01.html. 
  58. ↑ "New day, new coronal mass ejections to look at!". Space Weather Live. 10 February 2024. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/520/20240210-new-day-new-coronal-mass-ejections-to-look-at.html. 
  59. ↑ "X6.3 solar flare". Space Weather Live. 22 February 2024. https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/524/20240222-x6-3-solar-flare.html. Retrieved 23 February 2024. 
  60. ↑ Garofalo, Meredith (14 May 2024). "Sun unleashes massive X8.7 solar flare, biggest of current cycle, from super-active monster sunspot (video)". https://www.space.com/sun-solar-flare-sunspot-ar3664-x88-class-may-14-2024. Retrieved 14 May 2024. 
  61. ↑ "Region 3664 not done yet! Produces X8.7 flare...largest of the solar cycle!". 14 May 2024. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/region-3664-not-done-yet-produces-x87-flarelargest-solar-cycle. Retrieved 14 May 2024. 
  62. ↑ todd, iain (13 June 2024). "Solar storm erupts on Mars: aurora and radiation would have hit astronauts with the power of 30 chest x-rays" (in en). https://www.skyatnightmagazine.com/news/mars-solar-storm-20-may-2024. 
  63. ↑ Thomson, Jess (3 October 2024). "Auroras Forecast Over US As Solar Storm Gets Special Fall Boost". https://www.newsweek.com/geomagnetic-storm-cme-auroras-northern-lights-space-weather-1963397. Retrieved 3 October 2024. 
  64. ↑ 64.0 64.1 "Aurora and solar activity archive". https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/archive/2025/01.html. 

Template:Solar cycles