Astronomy:Rio scale
The Rio scale was proposed in 2000 as a means of quantifying the significance of a SETI detection.[1][2] The scale was designed by Iván Almár and Jill Tarter to help tell policy-makers how likely, from 0 to 10, it is that an extraterrestrial radio signal has been produced by an intelligent civilization.[3]
The scale is inspired by the Torino scale, which is used to determine the impact risk associated with near-Earth objects. Just as the Torino scale takes into account how significant an object's impact on the planet would be, the Rio scale takes into account how much a public announcement of the discovery of extraterrestrial intelligence would probably impact society.
The IAA SETI Permanent Study Group officially adopted the Rio scale as a way of bringing perspective to claims of extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) detection, and as an acknowledgement that even false ETI detections may have disastrous consequences.[4][5]
The scale was modified in 2011 to include a consideration of whether contact was achieved through an interstellar message or a physical extraterrestrial artifact, including all indications of intelligent extraterrestrial life such as technosignatures.[6] A 2.0 version of the scale was proposed in 2018.[3][7][8]
Calculation[9]
In its 2.0 version, the Rio Scale, R, of a given event is calculated as the product of two terms.
- [math]\displaystyle{ R = Q\delta }[/math]
The first term, Q, is the significance of the consequences of an event. It is determined considering three factors: the estimated distance to the source of the signal (a value between 0 and 4), the prospects for communicating with the source (a value between 0 and 4) and how likely is that the sender is aware of humanity (a value between -1 and 2). The value of each factor is determined by answering a question and Q is calculated by summing the three values.
The second term, δ, is the probability that the event actually occurred. Its value is determined by first calculating a term, J, based on three factors: the probability that the signal is real, the probability that it is not instrumental, and the probability that it is not natural or human-made. The values for these factors are determined by answering a questionnaire and J is calculated by summing them. δ is then calculated using the formula δ = 10(10-J)/2.
The final R value, going from 0 to 10, is the likelihood that the observed event was produced by an intelligent civilization.
Rating scale
| Rio value | Importance |
|---|---|
| 10 | Extraordinary |
| 9 | Outstanding |
| 8 | Far-reaching |
| 7 | High |
| 6 | Noteworthy |
| 5 | Intermediate |
| 4 | Moderate |
| 3 | Minor |
| 2 | Low |
| 1 | Insignificant |
| 0 | Nil |
See also
References
- ↑ "The Rio Scale". https://iaaspace.org/wp-content/uploads/iaa/Scientific%20Activity/setirio.pdf.
- ↑ Arbesman, Samuel. "Quantifying Alien Encounters: The Rio Scale" (in en-US). Wired. ISSN 1059-1028. https://www.wired.com/2012/02/quantifying-alien-encounters-the-rio-scale/. Retrieved 2022-05-30.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 Bartels,SPACE.com, Meghan. "To Fight Fake News, SETI Researchers Update Alien-Detection Scale" (in en). https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/to-fight-fake-news-seti-researchers-update-alien-detection-scale/.
- ↑ "How can you tell if that ET story is real? St Andrews scientists revise the Rio Scale for alien encounters". https://www.seti.org/press-release/how-can-you-tell-if-et-story-real-st-andrews-scientists-revise-rio-scale-alien-encounters.
- ↑ Hall, Shannon. "Strange signals from 234 stars could be ET - or human error" (in en-US). https://www.newscientist.com/article/2109139-strange-signals-from-234-stars-could-be-et-or-human-error/.
- ↑ "Mysterious Star Pulses May Be Alien Signals, Study Claims" (in en). 2016-10-28. https://www.space.com/34541-alien-life-search-possible-seti-signals.html.
- ↑ Tudhope, Christine. "Scientists revise the Rio Scale for reported alien encounters" (in en). phys.org. https://phys.org/news/2018-07-scientists-rio-scale-alien-encounters.html.
- ↑ Bartels, Meghan (31 July 2018). "SETI Researchers Want to End the Alien-Detection Hype" (in en). Space.com. https://www.space.com/41327-seti-alien-signals-hype-richter-scale.html.
- ↑ Forgan, Duncan; Wright, Jason; Tarter, Jill; Korpela, Eric; Siemion, Andrew; Almár, Iván; Piotelat, Elisabeth (August 2019). "Rio 2.0: revising the Rio scale for SETI detections" (in en). International Journal of Astrobiology 18 (4): 336–344. doi:10.1017/S1473550418000162. ISSN 1473-5504. Bibcode: 2019IJAsB..18..336F.
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