Biography:Steven N. Goodman

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Steven N. Goodman
CitizenshipAmerican
EducationAB, Harvard College (1976)
MD, New York University School of Medicine
MHS, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health
PhD, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health (1989)
Alma materHarvard University
New York University
Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Known forP-value fallacy, Bayes factor in medicine, research reproducibility
AwardsMyrto Lefkopoulou Distinguished Lecturer (2000)
Spinoza Chair in Medicine (2016)
Abraham Lilienfeld Award (2019)
National Academy of Medicine (2020)
Scientific career
FieldsEpidemiology, Biostatistics, Metascience
InstitutionsStanford School of Medicine
Johns Hopkins School of Medicine
ThesisEvidence and Clinical Trials (1989)
Doctoral advisorRichard Royall
Other academic advisorsCurt Meinert

Steven N. Goodman (born 1954) is an American epidemiologist and Professor of Epidemiology and Population Health and of Medicine at the Stanford School of Medicine, where he serves as Associate Dean of Clinical and Translational Research.[1] He is co-founder and co-director of the Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS), a center dedicated to studying and improving the reproducibility and efficiency of biomedical research, alongside John Ioannidis.[2] He is also founder and director of the Stanford Program on Research Rigor and Reproducibility (SPORR).[1]

Goodman has made extensive contributions to the foundations of scientific and statistical inference within the biosciences. In 1999, he coined the term "p-value fallacy" in a pair of landmark papers arguing for the adoption of Bayesian methods in medical research.[3][4][5] He is a sibling of journalist and Democracy Now! host Amy Goodman and journalist David Goodman.[6]

Education and career

Goodman received his AB in Biochemistry and Applied Mathematics from Harvard College in 1976, his MD from New York University School of Medicine, and his MHS and PhD in Biostatistics from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, completing his doctoral dissertation Evidence and Clinical Trials in 1989 under the supervision of Richard Royall.[1] He completed a residency in pediatrics at St. Louis Children's Hospital, Washington University School of Medicine, and holds board certification in General Pediatrics from the American Board of Pediatrics.[1]

From 1989 to 2011, Goodman served on the faculties of the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, where he was co-director of the doctoral program in Epidemiology and Director of the Division of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics in the Department of Oncology (2007–2010).[2][1] He joined the Stanford School of Medicine faculty in 2011.

Goodman has been a senior statistical editor of the Annals of Internal Medicine since 1987 and served as Editor of Clinical Trials: Journal of the Society for Clinical Trials from 2004 to 2013.[2] He chaired the Methodology Committee of the Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute (PCORI) until 2024, where he led their open science and data sharing efforts, and has served as scientific advisor for the national Blue Cross–Blue Shield Technology Assessment Program since 2004.[1] He has served on numerous National Academies committees, including a committee on vaccine safety, a 2012 committee on drug safety (which he chaired), and a 2014 committee on sharing data from clinical trials.[1]

Research

Statistical inference and the p-value

Goodman's research has centered on the proper measurement, conceptualization, and synthesis of research evidence, with particular emphasis on Bayesian approaches. His early work examined the historical debate between R. A. Fisher's approach to p-values and the Neyman–Pearson hypothesis testing framework, arguing that the combination of the two methods had led to widespread misunderstanding of statistical evidence in medicine.[7][8]

In 1999, Goodman published his most cited work, a two-part series in the Annals of Internal Medicine titled "Toward Evidence-Based Medical Statistics," in which he identified what he called the "P value fallacy"—the widespread misinterpretation of p-values as direct measures of the probability that a hypothesis is true—and proposed the Bayes factor as a more interpretable alternative for quantifying statistical evidence.[3][4] He further elaborated on these themes in subsequent publications advocating for Bayesian reasoning in clinical research.[9] His 2008 paper "A Dirty Dozen: Twelve P-Value Misconceptions" catalogued twelve common misinterpretations of the p-value and has been widely cited across multiple disciplines.[10]

Research reproducibility

Goodman has been a leading figure in efforts to define and improve research reproducibility. In 2016, he co-authored a widely cited Science Translational Medicine paper with Daniele Fanelli and John Ioannidis that proposed a standardized conceptual framework distinguishing among "methods reproducibility," "results reproducibility," and "inferential reproducibility."[11] In 2007, he and Sander Greenland published a critique of Ioannidis's influential claim that most published research findings are false, arguing that the conclusion rested on circular reasoning within its Bayesian framework.[12]

He has also contributed to work on reproducible research practices in medical publishing.[13]

Clinical research methods

Goodman has made contributions to the methods of clinical trials, comparative effectiveness research, and meta-analysis. He co-authored work on methodological standards for comparative effectiveness research with the PCORI,[14] and published on the need for transformational change in randomized clinical trial design for comparative effectiveness.[15][16] He also contributed to the development of methods for comparative effectiveness research more broadly.[17]

His work on meta-analysis includes early contributions on the role of evidence in meta-analytic synthesis[18] and later work addressing the problem of inconsistent effects in random-effects meta-analysis.[19] He has also written on the concept of "metabias" as a challenge for comparative effectiveness research.[20]

Additional contributions include work on practical improvements to the continual reassessment method for phase I studies,[21] the misuse of statistical power in interpreting clinical trial results,[22] Bayesian approaches to pediatric clinical trials,[23] and the quality of peer review.[24]

Research ethics and causal inference

Goodman has contributed to the ethics of clinical research, particularly in the context of learning healthcare systems. He co-authored work with Ruth Faden and Nancy Kass proposing an ethics framework that departs from the traditional research-treatment distinction,[25][26] and contributed to discussions of ethical considerations in drug safety research.[27] He has also co-authored work on causal inference in public health.[28]

Awards and honors

  • Myrto Lefkopoulou Distinguished Lecturer, Harvard Department of Biostatistics (2000)[1]
  • Spinoza Chair in Medicine, University of Amsterdam (2016)[1]
  • Abraham Lilienfeld Award, American College of Epidemiology (2019)[1]
  • Elected to the National Academy of Medicine (2020)[1]

Selected publications

References

  1. ↑ 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.09 1.10 "Steven Goodman". Stanford School of Medicine. https://med.stanford.edu/profiles/steven-goodman. 
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 "Steven Goodman". Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford. https://metrics.stanford.edu/people/steven-goodman. 
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 Goodman, S. N. (1999). "Toward evidence-based medical statistics. 1: The P value fallacy". Annals of Internal Medicine 130 (12): 995–1004. doi:10.7326/0003-4819-130-12-199906150-00008. PMID 10383371. 
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 Goodman, S. N. (1999). "Toward evidence-based medical statistics. 2: The Bayes factor". Annals of Internal Medicine 130 (12): 1005–1013. doi:10.7326/0003-4819-130-12-199906150-00019. PMID 10383350. 
  5. ↑ Sellke, Thomas; Bayarri, M. J; Berger, James O (February 2001). "Calibration of ρ Values for Testing Precise Null Hypotheses". The American Statistician 55 (1): 62–71. doi:10.1198/000313001300339950. 
  6. ↑ "David Goodman: A Q&A with epidemiologist Dr. Steven Goodman". VTDigger. July 22, 2020. https://vtdigger.org/2020/07/22/david-goodman-a-qa-with-epidemiologist-dr-steven-goodman/. 
  7. ↑ Goodman, S. N. (1993). "P Values, Hypothesis Tests, and Likelihood: Implications for Epidemiology of a Neglected Historical Debate". American Journal of Epidemiology 137 (5): 485–496. doi:10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a116700. PMID 8465801. 
  8. ↑ Goodman, S. N. (1992). "A comment on replication, P-values and evidence". Statistics in Medicine 11 (7): 875–879. doi:10.1002/sim.4780110705. PMID 1604067. 
  9. ↑ Goodman, S. N. (2001). "Of P-values and bayes: A modest proposal". Epidemiology 12 (3): 295–297. doi:10.1097/00001648-200105000-00006. PMID 11337600. 
  10. ↑ Goodman, S. (2008). "A dirty dozen: twelve p-value misconceptions". Seminars in Hematology 45 (3): 135–140. doi:10.1053/j.seminhematol.2008.04.003. PMID 18582619. 
  11. ↑ Goodman, S. N., Fanelli, D., Ioannidis, J. P. (2016). "What does research reproducibility mean?". Science Translational Medicine 8 (341): 341ps12. doi:10.1126/scitranslmed.aaf5027. PMID 27252173. 
  12. ↑ "Why Most Published Research Findings Are False: Problems in the Analysis". PLOS Medicine 4 (4): e168. 2007. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0040168. PMID 17456002. 
  13. ↑ Laine, C., Goodman, S. N., Griswold, M. E., Sox, H. C. (2007). "Reproducible research: Moving toward research the public can really trust". Annals of Internal Medicine 146 (6): 450–453. doi:10.7326/0003-4819-146-6-200703200-00154. PMID 17339612. 
  14. ↑ Basch, E., Aronson, N., Berg, A., Flum, D., Gabriel, S., Goodman, S. N., Helfand, M., Ioannidis, J. P., Lauer, M., Meltzer, D., Mittman, B., Newhouse, R., Normand, S., Schneeweiss, S., Slutsky, J., Tinetti, M., Yancy, C. (2012). "Methodological Standards and Patient-Centeredness in Comparative Effectiveness Research: The PCORI Perspective". JAMA 307 (15): 1636–1640. doi:10.1001/jama.2012.466. PMID 22511692. 
  15. ↑ Luce, B. R., Kramer, J. M., Goodman, S. N., Connor, J. T., Tunis, S., Whicher, D., Schwartz, J. S. (2009). "Rethinking Randomized Clinical Trials for Comparative Effectiveness Research: The Need for Transformational Change". Annals of Internal Medicine 151 (3): 206–209. doi:10.7326/0003-4819-151-3-200908040-00126. PMID 19567619. 
  16. ↑ Goodman, S. N. (2012). "Quasi-random reflections on randomized controlled trials and comparative effectiveness research". Clinical Trials 9 (1): 22–26. doi:10.1177/1740774511433285. PMID 22334465. 
  17. ↑ Sox, H. C., Goodman, S. N. (2012). "The Methods of Comparative Effectiveness Research". Annual Review of Public Health 33: 425–445. doi:10.1146/annurev-publhealth-031811-124610. PMID 22224891. 
  18. ↑ Goodman, S. N. (1989). "Meta-analysis and evidence". Controlled Clinical Trials 10 (2): 188–204. doi:10.1016/0197-2456(89)90030-5. PMID 2666026. 
  19. ↑ Cornell, J. E., Mulrow, C. D., Localio, R., Stack, C. B., Meibohm, A. R., Guallar, E., Goodman, S. N. (2014). "Random-Effects Meta-analysis of Inconsistent Effects: A Time for Change". Annals of Internal Medicine 160 (4): 267–270. doi:10.7326/M13-2886. PMID 24727843. 
  20. ↑ Goodman, S., Dickersin, K. (2011). "Metabias: A Challenge for Comparative Effectiveness Research". Annals of Internal Medicine 155 (1): 61–2. doi:10.7326/0003-4819-155-1-201107050-00010. PMID 21727295. 
  21. ↑ Goodman, S. N., Zahurak, M. L., Piantadosi, S. (1995). "Some practical improvements in the continual reassessment method for phase I studies". Statistics in Medicine 14 (11): 1149–1161. doi:10.1002/sim.4780141102. PMID 7667557. 
  22. ↑ Goodman, S. N., Berlin, J. A. (1994). "The Use of Predicted Confidence Intervals when Planning Experiments and the Misuse of Power when Interpreting Results". Annals of Internal Medicine 121 (3): 200–206. doi:10.7326/0003-4819-121-3-199408010-00008. PMID 8017747. 
  23. ↑ Goodman, S. N., Sladky, J. T. (2005). "A Bayesian approach to randomized controlled trials in children utilizing information from adults: the case of Guillain–Barré syndrome". Clinical Trials 2 (4): 305–310. doi:10.1191/1740774505cn102oa. PMID 16281429. 
  24. ↑ Goodman, S. N., Berlin, J., Fletcher, S. W., Fletcher, R. H. (1994). "Manuscript Quality before and after Peer Review and Editing at Annals of Internal Medicine". Annals of Internal Medicine 121 (1): 11–21. doi:10.7326/0003-4819-121-1-199407010-00003. PMID 8198342. 
  25. ↑ Faden, R. R., Kass, N. E., Goodman, S. N., Pronovost, P., Tunis, S., Beauchamp, T. L. (2013). "An Ethics Framework for a Learning Health Care System: A Departure from Traditional Research Ethics and Clinical Ethics". Hastings Center Report 43: S16–27. doi:10.1002/hast.134. PMID 23315888. 
  26. ↑ Kass, N. E., Faden, R. R., Goodman, S. N., Pronovost, P., Tunis, S., Beauchamp, T. L. (2013). "The Research-Treatment Distinction: A Problematic Approach for Determining Which Activities Should Have Ethical Oversight". Hastings Center Report 43: S4–S15. doi:10.1002/hast.133. PMID 23315895. 
  27. ↑ Mello, M. M., Goodman, S. N., Faden, R. R. (2012). "Ethical Considerations in Studying Drug Safety—The Institute of Medicine Report". New England Journal of Medicine 367 (10): 959–964. doi:10.1056/NEJMhle1207160. PMID 22913661. 
  28. ↑ Glass, T. A., Goodman, S. N., Hernán, M. A., Samet, J. M. (2013). "Causal inference in public health". Annual Review of Public Health 34: 61–75. doi:10.1146/annurev-publhealth-031811-124606. PMID 23297653. 



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