Astronomy:List of solar cycles
The following is a list of solar cycles (sometimes called sunspot cycles), tracked since 1755 following the original numbering proposed by Rudolf Wolf in the mid-19th century. The source data are the revised International Sunspot Numbers (ISN v2.0), as available at SILSO. Sunspot counts exist since 1610 but the cycle numbering is not well defined during the Maunder minimum. It was proposed that one cycle might have been lost in the late 18th century, but this still remains not fully confirmed.
The smoothing is done using the traditional SIDC smoothing algorithm. Using this algorithm, if the month in question is notated month 0, a weighted average is formed of months -6 to 6, where months -5 to 5 are given weightings of 1, and months -6 and 6 are given weightings of 0.5. Other smoothing formulas exist, and they usually give slightly different values for the amplitude and timings of the solar cycles. An example is the Meeus smoothing formula, with related solar cycles characteristics available in this STCE news item.
The start of solar cycle 25 (as with any other cycle) will be determined restrospectively. Mathematically, this declaration cannot happen less than 7 months after the minimum. Realistically, the declaration must happen some time after this, to discount the possibility of a double trough. When the start of cycle 25 is retrospectively announced, a large number of spotless days that were sitting in cycle 24 will be transferred to cycle 25.
It is more than likely that cycle 25 will begin in December 2019. As of July 9 2020, the way the SIDC algorithm works, even if there are no more spots before the end of November 2020, the January, February, March, April and May 2020 averages cannot fall below the December 2019 average. If there is no second trough, this December minimum will be 1.81.
|Solar Cycle||Start (Minimum)||Smoothed minimum ISN (start of cycle)||Maximum||Smoothed maximum ISN||Time of Rise (years)||Duration (years)||Spotless days|
|Solar cycle 1||1755-02||14.0||1761-06||144||6.3||11.3|
|Solar cycle 2||1766-06||18.6||1769-09||193||3.3||9.0|
|Solar cycle 3||1775-06||12.0||1778-05||264||2.9||9.3|
|Solar cycle 4||1784-09||15.9||1788-02||235||3.4||13.6|
|Solar cycle 5||1798-04||5.3||1805-02||82||6.8||12.3|
|Solar cycle 6||1810-08||0.0||1816-05||81||5.8||12.8|
|Solar cycle 7||1823-05||0.2||1829-11||119||6.5||10.5|
|Solar cycle 8||1833-11||12.2||1837-03||245||3.3||9.7|
|Solar cycle 9||1843-07||17.6||1848-02||220||4.6||12.4|
|Solar cycle 10||1855-12||6.0||1860-02||186||4.2||11.3||561|
|Solar cycle 11||1867-03||9.9||1870-08||234||3.4||11.8||942|
|Solar cycle 12||1878-12||3.7||1883-12||124||5.0||11.3||872|
|Solar cycle 13||1890-03||8.3||1894-01||147||3.8||11.8||782|
|Solar cycle 14||1902-01||4.5||1906-02||107||4.1||11.5||1007|
|Solar cycle 15||1913-07||2.5||1917-08||176||4.1||10.1||640|
|Solar cycle 16||1923-08||9.4||1928-04||130||4.7||10.1||514|
|Solar cycle 17||1933-09||5.8||1937-04||199||3.6||10.4||384|
|Solar cycle 18||1944-02||12.9||1947-05||219||3.3||10.2||382|
|Solar cycle 19||1954-04||5.1||1958-03||285||3.9||10.5||337|
|Solar cycle 20||1964-10||14.3||1968-11||157||4.1||11.4||285|
|Solar cycle 21||1976-03||17.8||1979-12||233||3.8||10.5||283|
|Solar cycle 22||1986-09||13.5||1989-11||214||3.2||9.9||257|
|Solar cycle 23||1996-08||11.2||2001-11||180||5.3||12.3||619|
|Solar cycle 24||2008-12||2.2||2014-04||116||5.3||In progress||1074 (4 July 2020)|
|Solar cycle 25||To be determined||(1.8 as at December 2019 - likely minimum)|
The following table is instead divided into (unofficial) cycles starting and ending with a maximum, to give a better feel for the number of spotless days associated with each minimum:
|Solar Cycles||“Start” (Maximum)||Spotless days|
|Solar cycle 10-11||1860-02||406|
|Solar cycle 11-12||1870-08||1028|
|Solar cycle 12-13||1883-12||736|
|Solar cycle 13-14||1894-01||934|
|Solar cycle 14-15||1906-02||1023|
|Solar cycle 15-16||1917-08||534|
|Solar cycle 16-17||1928-04||568|
|Solar cycle 17-18||1937-04||269|
|Solar cycle 18-19||1947-05||446|
|Solar cycle 19-20||1958-03||227|
|Solar cycle 20-21||1968-11||272|
|Solar cycle 21-22||1979-12||273|
|Solar cycle 22-23||1989-10||309|
|Solar cycle 23-24||2001-11||817|
|Solar cycle 24-25||2014-04||737 (4 July 2020)|
- "Sunspot numbers". Royal Observatory of Belgium. http://www.sidc.be/silso/datafiles. Retrieved 19 May 2017.
- Hathaway, D. (2015). "The solar cycle". Living Reviews in Solar Physics 12 (1): 4. doi:10.1007/lrsp-2015-4. PMID 27194958. Bibcode: 2015LRSP...12....4H.
- Usoskin; Mursula; Kovaltsov (2001). "Heliospheric modulation of cosmic rays and solar activity during the Maunder minimum". J. Geophys. Res. 106(A8) (A8): 16039. doi:10.1029/2000JA000105. Bibcode: 2001JGR...10616039U.
- Usoskin (2009). "A solar cycle lost in 1793-1800: Early sunspot observations resolve the old mystery". Astrophys. J. Lett. 700 (2): L154. doi:10.1088/0004-637X/700/2/L154. Bibcode: 2009ApJ...700L.154U.
- "SIDC smoothing formula". Royal Observatory of Belgium. http://www.sidc.be/silso/node/52. Retrieved 19 May 2017.
- Meeus, J. (1958). "Une formule d'adoucissement pour l'activité solaire". Ciel et Terre 74: 445. Bibcode: 1958C&T....74..445M.
- "The solar cycle's new clothes". Royal Observatory of Belgium. http://www.stce.be/news/312/welcome.html. Retrieved 8 July 2015.
- "What's Wrong with the Sun?". NASA. https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/11jul_solarcycleupdate/. Retrieved 29 July 2014.
- "Spotless Days Page". Royal Observatory of Belgium. http://sidc.oma.be/silso/spotless. Retrieved 3 April 2017.
- Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC)
- Graphics of historic solar cycles at the SIDC page
- Near realtime solar images from SOHO
- SORCE Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) Data
Original source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ List of solar cycles. Read more