Astronomy:2007 FT3

From HandWiki
Short description: Lost risk–listed hazardous near-Earth asteroid


2007 FT3
Discovery[1]
Discovered byMt. Lemmon Survey
Discovery date20 March 2007
Designations
2007 FT3
Minor planet category
Orbital characteristics[4]
Epoch 21 March 2007 (JD 2454180.5)
Uncertainty parameter 9
Observation arc1.2 days[5]
|{{{apsis}}}|helion}}1.48±0.02 astronomical unit|AU (Q)
|{{{apsis}}}|helion}}0.782±0.007 AU (q)
1.13±0.02 AU (a)
Eccentricity0.308±0.006 (e)
Orbital period1.2±0.03 years
Average Orbital speed28.4 km/s[lower-alpha 1]
Mean anomaly298°±3° (M)
Inclination26.9°±0.43° (i)
Longitude of ascending node9.9°±0.2° (Ω)
277°±2° (ω)
Earth MOID0.01 AU (1.5 million km) ?
Jupiter MOID3.83 AU (573 million km) ?
Physical characteristics
Dimensions
  • ~340 m (1,100 ft)?[5]
  • 270–590 meters
Absolute magnitude (H)20?[4]


2007 FT3 (also written 2007 FT3) is a lost asteroid[2] with a short observation arc of 1.2 days that cannot be recovered with targeted observations and awaits serendipitous survey observations. It has a poorly constrained orbit and has not been seen since 2007. It was first observed on 20 March 2007 when the asteroid was estimated to be 0.19 ± 0.01 astronomical unit|AU (28.4 ± 1.5 million km) from Earth and had a solar elongation of 107 degrees. 2007 FT3 is the fourth largest asteroid with better than a 1-in-2 million cumulative chance of impacting Earth after (29075) 1950 DA, 1979 XB, and 101955 Bennu. With a cumulative Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale of -2.93, the poorly known orbit and assumed size place 2007 FT3 fifth on an unconstrained listing of the Sentry Risk Table.[6] The asteroid is not expected to be near the Earth in October 2024.

2013 virtual impactor

The 2 October 2013 virtual impactor did not occur.[5] The uncertainty region of ± 330 million kilometers wrapped around a large portion of the asteroid's orbit so that the asteroid could have been numerous different distances from the Earth.

2019 virtual impactor

The 3 October 2019 virtual impactor did not occur. The poorly constrained nominal orbit suggested that the closest approach the asteroid would make to Earth in 2019 was in late March at a distance of 0.14 AU (21,000,000 km; 13,000,000 mi).[7] But the line of variation (LOV) for this asteroid was hundreds of millions of kilometers long.

There was an estimated 1 in 11 million chance of the asteroid impacting Earth on 3 October 2019.[5] The nominal JPL Horizons 3 October 2019 Earth distance was 0.93 AU (139,000,000 km; 86,000,000 mi) with a 3-sigma uncertainty of ± 620 million km.[8] NEODyS listed the nominal 3 October 2019 Earth distance as 0.95 AU (142,000,000 km; 88,000,000 mi).[7]

2024 virtual impactor

Since the asteroid has a short observation arc and the uncertainty in the orbit of the asteroid intersects Earth's orbit, simulations can not rule-out the asteroid and Earth being at the same point in space on 3 October 2024. The nominal orbit suggests that closest approach the asteroid will make to Earth in 2024 will not be until the end of December when it may be ~1 AU from Earth (the same distance the Sun is from Earth).[9] But the line of variation (LOV) for this asteroid is hundreds of millions of kilometers long.[10]

With a short 1.2 day observation arc, the Sentry Risk Table shows an estimated 1 in 11 million chance of the asteroid impacting Earth on 2 October 2024,[5] which is 1,900 times lower than the background threat.[lower-alpha 2] The nominal JPL Horizons 2 October 2024 Earth distance is 1.7 AU (250,000,000 km; 160,000,000 mi) with a 3-sigma uncertainty of ± 500 million km.[10] NEODyS lists the nominal 2 October 2024 Earth distance as 1.7 AU (250,000,000 km; 160,000,000 mi).[9]

Virtual impactors (past and future)[5]
Date Impact
probability
(1 in) 		JPL Horizons
nominal geocentric
distance (AU) 		NEODyS
nominal geocentric
distance (AU) 		MPC[11]
nominal geocentric
distance (AU) 		Find_Orb
nominal geocentric
distance (AU) 		uncertainty[8]
region
2013-10-02 1.9 billion 0.94 astronomical unit|AU (141 million km) 1.0 AU (150 million km) 1.1 AU (160 million km) 1.2 AU (180 million km) ± 330 million km
2019-10-03 11 million 0.93 AU (139 million km) 0.95 AU (142 million km)[7] 1.3 AU (190 million km) 1.4 AU (210 million km) ± 620 million km
2024-10-03 11 million 1.7 AU (250 million km)[10] 1.7 AU (250 million km)[9] 2.0 AU (300 million km)[11] 2.0 AU (300 million km)[12] ± 500 million km[10]

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ v = 42.1219 √1/r − 0.5/a, where r is the distance from the Sun, and a is the major semi-axis. Average velocity is at r=a=1.1 AU.
  2. ↑ Palermo Scale for 2024 is −3.27 and 10^3.27 = 1862.

References

  1. ↑ "MPEC 2007-F60: 2007 FT3". IAU Minor Planet Center. 2007-03-21. https://minorplanetcenter.net/mpec/K07/K07F60.html. Retrieved 2019-08-15.  (K07F03T)
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 "NEODyS-2 Risk List". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). https://newton.spacedys.com/neodys/index.php?pc=4.1. Retrieved 2021-03-08. 
  3. ↑ "2007 FT3". Minor Planet Center. https://www.minorplanetcenter.net/db_search/show_object?object_id=2007+FT3. Retrieved 11 January 2020. 
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: (2007 FT3)". Jet Propulsion Laboratory. https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html#/?sstr=2007FT3&view=OPC. Retrieved 2019-08-15. 
  5. ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 "Earth Impact Risk Summary: 2007 FT3". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2007%20FT3. Retrieved 2019-08-15.  (Wayback Machine 2012)
  6. ↑ "Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring". NASA/JPL Center for NEO Studies. https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/.  (Use Unconstrained Settings to reveal impact probability below 1e-7)
  7. ↑ 7.0 7.1 7.2 "2007FT3 Ephemerides for 2019". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). https://newton.spacedys.com/neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.3.1&n=2007FT3&oc=500&y0=2019&m0=1&d0=1&h0=0&mi0=0&y1=2019&m1=12&d1=31&h1=0&mi1=0&ti=1.0&tiu=days. Retrieved 2019-08-15. 
  8. ↑ 8.0 8.1 Go to JPL Horizons. Table Settings: only need "20. Observer range & range-rate" AND "39. Range & range-rate 3-sigmas".
    RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (Soln.date: 6 April 2017 generates RNG_3sigma = 620915473 for 3 October 2019.)
  9. ↑ 9.0 9.1 9.2 "2007FT3 Ephemerides for 2024". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). https://newton.spacedys.com/neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.3.1&n=2007FT3&oc=500&y0=2024&m0=1&d0=1&h0=0&mi0=0&y1=2024&m1=12&d1=31&h1=0&mi1=0&ti=1.0&tiu=days. Retrieved 2021-04-04. 
  10. ↑ 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 "Horizons Batch for 2024-10-02 Virtual Impactor". JPL Horizons. https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272007+FT3%27&START_TIME=%272024-10-02%27&STOP_TIME=%272024-10-03%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20days%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27. Retrieved 2021-04-10.  RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (JPL#7/Soln.date: 2017-Apr-06 generates RNG_3sigma = 487811582 for 2024-Oct-02.)
  11. ↑ 11.0 11.1 "MPC Ephemeris Service". IAU Minor Planet Center. https://minorplanetcenter.net//iau/MPEph/MPEph.html. Retrieved 2021-04-08. 
  12. ↑ "Find_Orb for 2024-10-02". Project Pluto. https://www.projectpluto.com/cgi-bin/fo/fo_serve.cgi?obj_name=2007+FT3&year=2024-10-02&n_steps=1&stepsize=1. Retrieved 2021-04-20. 

External links



Retrieved from "https://handwiki.org/wiki/index.php?title=Astronomy:2007_FT3&oldid=3354568"