Social:Third wave of autocratization

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Short description: 21st-century surge away from democracy


Third wave of autocratization
Part of waves of democracy
c. 2000s – present
Riot police firing tear gas canisters at Hong Kong protesters, 2019
LocationWorldwide
Key events
← Preceded by
Third wave of democratization 		Followed by →
—
Part of the Politics series
Democracy
Types
Related topics
Politics portal

The third wave of autocratization is the ongoing 21st-century phenomenon whereby countries around the globe are drifting away from liberal democracy towards authoritarianism. The war on terror, the Great Recession, and the COVID-19 pandemic were some of the most significant events that exacerbated autocratization. Since the 2010s, more countries have been autocratizing than democratizing.[1]

Unlike previous waves of autocratization, the third wave has resulted in significant autocratization in healthy liberal democracies. Modern autocrats have relied less on military coups to consolidate power and more on being legitimately elected to positions of power and eroding separation of powers from within.

Waves of autocracy contrast with waves of democracy, with the third wave of autocratization being preceded by the third wave of democratization, which began in 1974. Although experts disagree on which year marked the beginning of the third wave of autocratization (and the corresponding end to the third wave of democratization), most agree it began during the war on terror or Great Recession.

Autocratization has ignited international pro-democracy movements such as the Arab Spring and the Gen Z protests. Autocratization has also led to developments in protest tactics against police riot control methods, as well as the popularization of new pro-democracy symbols like the three-finger salute and Straw Hats' Jolly Roger.

Timeline

Modern democratic backsliding, rather than occurring through military coups (the norm during the Cold War era), has more frequently occurred through the election of personalist leaders or parties who subsequently dismantle democratic institutions.[2] New democracies that were weakly established during the third wave of democratization have been especially vulnerable to democratic backsliding.[3][4]

War on terror (2001–2021)

Following the September 11 attacks and subsequent war on terror, democratic backsliding ensued.[5] The war on terror is a global military campaign initiated by the United States in response to the September 11 attacks in 2001. A global conflict spanning multiple wars, some researchers and political scientists have argued that it replaced the Cold War.[6][7]

In 2003, political scientists and theorists believed that the third wave had crested and would soon begin to ebb, just as its predecessors did in the first and second waves.[8]

Detainees in orange jumpsuits bound in a holding area at Guantanamo Bay, 2002

While support for the "war on terror" was high among the American public during its initial years, it had become deeply unpopular by the late 2000s.[9][10] Controversy over the war has focused on its morality, casualties, and continuity, with critics questioning government measures that infringed civil liberties and human rights.[11] Critics have notably described the Patriot Act as "Orwellian" due to its substantial expansion of the federal government's surveillance powers.[12][13] Controversial practices of coalition forces have been condemned, including drone warfare, surveillance, torture, extraordinary rendition, and various war crimes.[14][15][16] The participating governments have been criticized for implementing authoritarian measures, repressing minorities,[17][18] fomenting Islamophobia globally,[19] and causing negative impacts to health and environment.[20][21][22] Security analysts assert that there is no military solution to the conflict, pointing out that terrorism is not an identifiable enemy, and have emphasized the importance of negotiations and political solutions to resolve the underlying roots of the crises.[23]

Great Recession (2010s)

V-Dem report on countries autocratizing (red) or democratizing (blue) substantially and significantly (2010–2020). Countries in grey are substantially unchanged.[24]
Since c. 2010, the number of countries autocratizing (blue) has been higher than those democratizing (yellow).[1]

Some scholars argue the third wave of autocratization began in the 2010s after the Great Recession, when the number of liberal democracies was at an all-time high.[25][26] From 2010 to 2020, the V-Dem Institute reported a global decline in liberal democracy.[27]

COVID-19 (2019–2022)

This section is an excerpt from Political impact of the COVID-19 pandemic#Democracy[ edit ]

Post-COVID (2022–present)

V-Dem Liberal Democracy Index 2026

File:U.S. citizen Aliya Rahman is dragged from her car and arrested (1.13.26 Tear Gas Day 2.ben) (2026-01-13).webm

In the 2020s, democratic backsliding has increasingly been observed not only in newer or weakly institutionalized democracies, but also in long-established democratic systems.[29]

According to the V-Dem Institute's Democracy Report 2026, nearly a quarter of the world's countries were undergoing autocratization in 2025, including several in Europe and North America. The report also highlights growing concerns about declines in democratic quality and increasing pressures on media and journalists worldwide.[29]

Russia under Vladimir Putin has repeatedly engaged in election interference and disinformation campaigns aimed at damaging opponents of far-right populist factions, including in three US elections to support Donald Trump (2016, 2020, 2024)[30][31][32] and in German elections to support the AfD, or Alternative for Germany (2025).[33][34][35][36][37]

Concepts

Autocratic legalism

This section is an excerpt from Autocratic legalism[ edit ]

Right-wing populism

French politician Marine Le Pen, who has been described as a right-wing populist[38]
This section is an excerpt from Right-wing populism[ edit ]

Scholars use terminology inconsistently, sometimes referring to right-wing populism as "radical right"[39] or other terms such as new nationalism.[40] Pippa Norris noted that "standard reference works use alternate typologies and diverse labels categorising parties as 'far' or 'extreme' right, 'New Right', 'anti-immigrant' or 'neo-fascist', 'anti-establishment', 'national populist', 'protest', 'ethnic', 'authoritarian', 'anti-government', 'anti-party', 'ultranationalist', 'right-libertarian' and so on".[41][needs update] The term authoritarian populism can be used to describe right-wing populism,[42] although it is also used to refer to left-wing political movements.[43][44]

Policing

Kettling

Police kettle at the G20 Toronto summit protests, 2010
This section is an excerpt from Kettling[ edit ]

Militarization

Law enforcement officer in an armored vehicle aiming an assault rifle during the anti-ICE Los Angeles protests, 2025
This section is an excerpt from Militarization of police[ edit ]

Predictive policing

This section is an excerpt from Predictive policing[ edit ]

Protest policing

US Seattle Police Department officers at the George Floyd protests, 2020
This section is an excerpt from Protest policing[ edit ]
This section is an excerpt from Protest policing#Strategies[ edit ]

Riot police

File:Delaney Hall - police arrest protester in kettle.webm

Riot police are police who are organized, deployed, trained or equipped to confront crowds, protests or riots.

Riot police may be regular police officers who act in the role of riot police in particular situations, or they may be separate units organized within or in parallel to regular police forces. Riot police are used in a variety of different situations and purposes. They may be employed to control riots as their name suggests, to disperse or control crowds, to maintain public order or discourage criminality, or to protect people or property. The militarization of modern police has brought militaristic riot gear and new technologies that allow for their duties to expand above normal police duties.[45]

Riot police often use special equipment called riot gear to help protect themselves and for offensive use in riot control. Riot gear typically includes personal armor, batons, tactical shield, riot shields, and riot helmets. Many riot police teams also deploy specialized non-lethal weapons, such as: baton rounds, sponge grenade, pepper spray, tear gas, riot guns, rubber bullets, stun grenades, water cannons, and Long Range Acoustic Devices.[46]

Other tactics

Disinformation attack

Framework conceptualizing the dissemination disinformation on social media
This section is an excerpt from Disinformation attack[ edit ]

Mass surveillance

Surveillance cameras at Tiananmen Square, 2009
This section is an excerpt from Mass surveillance[ edit ]

Global mass surveillance

NSA lists "Approved SIGINT countries" which are divided into two groups by their cooperation level with the NSA.
  Second Parties
  Third Parties
This section is an excerpt from Global surveillance[ edit ]

Pro-democracy movements

Third-wave countries, including Portugal, Spain, South Korea, and Taiwan became fully consolidated democracies rather than backsliding. As of 2020, they even had stronger democracies than many counterparts with a much longer history as democratic countries.[47]

Arab Spring (2010–2012)

Celebration after the Egyptian revolution forced Hosni Mubarak to resign, 2011
This section is an excerpt from Arab Spring[ edit ]

Gen Z protests (2019–present)

Protesters during the Hong Kong protests, 2019
  Ongoing protests (as of September 2026)
  Successful protests; government overthrown or changed
  Successful protests; government applied the desired reform
  Partially successful protests; protests that have succeeded in some areas, failed in others
  Protests have occurred previously, with no success
  Protests have returned after previous failed protests
This section is an excerpt from Gen Z protests[ edit ]

Milk Tea Alliance (2020–present)

This section is an excerpt from Milk Tea Alliance[ edit ]

Pro-democracy symbols

Three-finger salute

Protesters displaying the three-finger salute in front of the Democracy Monument during Thai protests, 2020
This section is an excerpt from Three-finger salute (pro-democracy)[ edit ]

Straw Hats' Jolly Roger

Anti-ICE protester waves Straw Hats' Jolly Roger flag outside Trump Tower, 2026
This section is an excerpt from Straw Hats' Jolly Roger[ edit ]

Protest tactics

Black bloc and PPE

Black bloc demonstration in Hamburg, Germany, 2007
Black bloc Hong Kong protesters wearing personal protective equipment, 2019
This section is an excerpt from Black bloc[ edit ]

Hong Kong protest innovations

Hong Kong protesters in the Umbrella Movement make way for an ambulance, 2019
US George Floyd protesters using umbrellas to protect from pepper spray, 2020
This section is an excerpt from Umbrella Movement[ edit ]
This section is an excerpt from Tactics and methods surrounding the 2019–2020 Hong Kong protests[ edit ]

File:Hong Kong Protestors Put Out Tear Gas Grenades Using Traffic Cones.webm

This section is an excerpt from Traffic cone method[ edit ]

Countries

Bangladesh

Bangladeshi people celebrating the resignation of Sheikh Hasina as a result of the July Uprising, 2024

China

Chinese students mourn the victims of the fire in Ürümqi, holding blank sheets of paper and singing "The Internationale" and "March of the Volunteers", 2022

Germany

  • Censorship of pro-Palestinian expression in German culture
  • 2025 German federal election
  • 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election
  • AfD pro-Russia movement

Hong Kong

Riot police during the Hong Kong protests, 2019
Hong Kong Way campaign protesters on Lion Rock, 2019
  • Umbrella Movement
    • Art of the Umbrella Movement
  • 2014 Hong Kong protests
  • 2019 Hong Kong extradition bill
  • 2019–2020 Hong Kong protests
    • Tactics and methods surrounding the 2019–2020 Hong Kong protests
    • Police misconduct allegations during the 2019–2020 Hong Kong protests
  • History of Hong Kong#Chinese special administrative region (1997–ongoing)

Iran

  • Iran protests
    • Mahsa Amini protests
    • 2025–2026 Iranian protests

Italy

  • 2022 Italian general election

Philippines

Philippine protesters wave the Straw Hats' Jolly Roger flag, September 2025
  • 2025–2026 Philippine anti-corruption protests

Russia

Russian riot police at a protest, 2021
  • Vladimir Putin
  • 2021 Russian protests
  • Death and funeral of Alexei Navalny
  • Anti-war protests in Russia (2022–present)

South Korea

  • 2024 South Korean martial law crisis

Syria

  • Syrian revolution
  • Bashar al-Assad
    • Military Intelligence Directorate
  • Syrian civil war

Thailand

  • 2020–2021 Thai protests

Turkey

United Kingdom

United States

Template:Authoritarianism during the Trump presidencies sidebar

  • Government attacks on journalists during the Trump presidencies
  • Antifa (United States)
  • Democratic backsliding in the United States
    • Authoritarianism during the Trump presidencies
  • George Floyd protests
  • Project 2025
  • Project Esther
  • Snowden disclosures
  • Trump and fascism
  • Political activities of Elon Musk
  • Occupy Wall Street
  • Operation Metro Surge
  • War on drugs
  • Flock Safety
  • Palantir
  • No Kings protests
  • NYPD Strategic Response Group
  • Trumpism
  • June 2025 Los Angeles protests against mass deportation
  • 2026 Delaney Hall hunger strike and protests
  • ICE and New York City during the second Trump presidency

See also

Footnotes

References

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 Boese, Vanessa A.; Lindberg, Staffan I.; Lührmann, Anna (18 August 2021). "Waves of autocratization and democratization: a rejoinder". Democratization 28 (6): 1202–1210. doi:10.1080/13510347.2021.1923006. ISSN 1351-0347. 
  2. ↑ Frantz, Erica; Kendall-Taylor, Andrea; Kendall-Taylor, Senior Fellow and Director of the Transatlantic Security Program Andrea; Wright, Joe (2024) (in en). The Origins of Elected Strongmen: How Personalist Parties Destroy Democracy from Within. Oxford University Press. ISBN 978-0-19-888807-9. https://academic.oup.com/book/56389. 
  3. ↑ Rocha Menocal, Alina; Fritz, Verena; Rakner, Lise (June 2008). "Hybrid regimes and the challenges of deepening and sustaining democracy in developing countries1" (in en). South African Journal of International Affairs 15 (1): 29–40. doi:10.1080/10220460802217934. ISSN 1022-0461. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10220460802217934. 
  4. ↑ Bermeo, Nancy (January 2016). "On Democratic Backsliding". Journal of Democracy 27 (1): 5–19. doi:10.1353/jod.2016.0012. ISSN 1086-3214. https://sites.unimi.it/carbone/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Democratic-backsliding-Bermeo-JOD-2016.pdf. Retrieved 26 April 2019. 
  5. ↑ Little AT, Meng A. Measuring Democratic Backsliding. PS: Political Science & Politics. 2024;57(2):149–161. doi:10.1017/S104909652300063X
  6. ↑ Buzan, Barry (November 2006). "Will the 'Global War on Terrorism' Be the New Cold War?". International Affairs 82 (6): 1101–18. doi:10.1111/j.1468-2346.2006.00590.x. ISSN 0020-5850. https://www.jstor.org/stable/4122087. Retrieved 16 June 2024. 
  7. ↑ Tunander, Ola (May 2004). "War on Terror and Transformation of World Order". https://www.prio.org/publications/3211. 
  8. ↑ Zagorski, Paul W. (2003). "Democratic Breakdown in Paraguay and Venezuela: The Shape of Things to Come for Latin America?". Armed Forces & Society 30 (1): 87–116. doi:10.1177/0095327X0303000104. 
  9. ↑ Ackerman, Spencer (27 March 2012). "Afghanistan War Is Now More Unpopular Than Iraq War". Wired. https://www.wired.com/2012/03/afghanistan-unpopular/. 
  10. ↑ Doherty, Carroll; Kiley, Jocelyn (14 March 2023). "A Look Back at How Fear and False Beliefs Bolstered U.S. Public Support for War in Iraq". https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/03/14/a-look-back-at-how-fear-and-false-beliefs-bolstered-u-s-public-support-for-war-in-iraq/. 
  11. ↑ "FBI Tried to Cover Patriot Act Abuses With Flawed, Retroactive Subpoenas, Audit Finds" (in en-US). Wired. ISSN 1059-1028. https://www.wired.com/2008/03/fbi-tried-to-co/. Retrieved 11 September 2021. 
  12. ↑ Liptak, Adam (2011-09-07). "Civil Liberties Today" (in en-US). The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. https://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/07/us/sept-11-reckoning/civil.html. 
  13. ↑ Eddington, Patrick G. (21 October 2021). "The PATRIOT Act Has Threatened Freedom for 20 Years". https://www.cato.org/commentary/patriot-act-has-threatened-freedom-20-years. 
  14. ↑ Ball, James (22 May 2013). "US rendition: every suspected flight mapped" (in en). http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/interactive/2013/may/22/rendition-flights-cia-mapped. 
  15. ↑ "CIA photographed detainees naked before sending them to be tortured" (in en). 28 March 2016. http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/mar/28/cia-photographed-naked-detainees. 
  16. ↑ "Drone Warfare" (in en). https://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/projects/drone-war. 
  17. ↑ "9/11 Legacies │ Assimilation or Islamophobia?: Uyghurs and China's Counter–Terrorist Discourse after 2001" (in en). http://911legacies.com/Assimilation%20or%20Islamophobia.htm. 
  18. ↑ "9/11 Legacies │ US Pressure for Democratization and Political Opportunity Structures in Egypt since 9/11" (in en). http://911legacies.com/us%20pressure%20for%20Democratization%20and%20Political%20Opportunity%20Structures%20in%20Egypt%20since%209-11.htm. 
  19. ↑ Abbas, Tahir (24 September 2021). "Reflection: the "war on terror", Islamophobia and radicalisation twenty years on". Critical Studies on Terrorism 14 (4): 402–04. doi:10.1080/17539153.2021.1980182. 
  20. ↑ "Birth Defects and the Toxic Legacy of War in Iraq" (in en-US). 22 September 2020. https://merip.org/2020/09/birth-defects-and-the-toxic-legacy-of-war-in-iraq/. 
  21. ↑ "Airborne Hazards and Burn Pit Exposures" (in en). https://www.publichealth.va.gov/exposures/burnpits/. 
  22. ↑ Lutfi, Ameem; Schwartz, Kevin L. (8 September 2021). "20 years later, the legacies of 9/11 and the war on terror have just begun". https://thehill.com/opinion/international/571215-20-years-later-the-legacies-of-9-11-and-the-war-on-terror-have-just?rl=1. 
  23. ↑ Richissin, Todd (2 September 2004). "'War on terror' difficult to define". The Baltimore Sun. http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2002023596_russanal02.html. 
  24. ↑ Nazifa Alizada, Rowan Cole, Lisa Gastaldi, Sandra Grahn, Sebastian Hellmeier, Palina Kolvani, Jean Lachapelle, Anna Lührmann, Seraphine F. Maerz, Shreeya Pillai, and Staffan I. Lindberg. 2021. Autocratization Turns Viral. Democracy Report 2021. University of Gothenburg: V-Dem Institute. https://www.v-dem.net/media/filer_public/74/8c/748c68ad-f224-4cd7-87f9-8794add5c60f/dr_2021_updated.pdf.
  25. ↑ Maerz, Seraphine F.; Lührmann, Anna; Hellmeier, Sebastian; Grahn, Sandra; Lindberg, Staffan I. (18 May 2020). "State of the world 2019: autocratization surges – resistance grows". Democratization 27 (6): 909–927. doi:10.1080/13510347.2020.1758670. ISSN 1351-0347. 
  26. ↑ Boese, Vanessa A.; Lundstedt, Martin; Morrison, Kelly; Sato, Yuko; Lindberg, Staffan I. (2022). "State of the world 2021: autocratization changing its nature?". Democratization 29 (6): 983–1013. doi:10.1080/13510347.2022.2069751. ISSN 1351-0347. 
  27. ↑ Dwyer, Brandon (May 1, 2022). "Trends in Autocratization and their Impact on Pandemic Response" (in en). Capstone, The UNC Asheville Journal of Undergraduate Scholarship (University of North Carolina Asheville) 35 (1). https://janeway.uncpress.org/capstone/article/id/4762/. Retrieved September 11, 2026. 
  28. ↑ Staff, MPR News (2026-01-13). "Woman dragged by ICE agents into unmarked car, private data being used to intimidate observers" (in en). https://www.mprnews.org/story/2026/01/13/ice-enforcement-shooting-in-minnesota-latest-tuesday. 
  29. ↑ 29.0 29.1 V-Dem Institute. Democracy Report 2026 (Report). University of Gothenburg. 
  30. ↑ Myers, Steven Lee; Barnes, Julian E. (July 10, 2024). "U.S. and Allies Take Aim at Covert Russian Information Campaign". https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/09/business/russian-bots-artificial-intelligence-propaganda.html. 
  31. ↑ Swenson, Ali (2024-09-17). "Russia goes all-out with covert disinformation aimed at Harris, Microsoft report says" (in en). https://apnews.com/article/russia-disinformation-foreign-influence-election-microsoft-7f802f9f4a0efe206fdaad29516b1f7f. 
  32. ↑ "Russia’s new punching bag: Kamala Harris" (in en-GB). 2024-07-23. https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-punching-bag-joe-biden-us-elections-2024-washington-kremlin-propaganda-moscow/. 
  33. ↑ "Exclusive: Elon Musk's Secret Conversations With Vladimir Putin". WSJ. 25 October 2024. https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/musk-putin-secret-conversations-37e1c187. 
  34. ↑ "Verfassungsschutz warnt vor Einflussnahme auf Bundestagswahl" (in de). Tagesschau. https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/verfassungsschutz-warnung-cyberangriffe-bundestagswahl-100.html. 
  35. ↑ "Influence operation exposed: How Russia meddles in Germany's election campaign" (in en-US). EDMO. https://edmo.eu/publications/influence-operation-exposed-how-russia-meddles-in-germanys-election-campaign/. 
  36. ↑ Thust, Sarah (23 January 2025). "Einflussoperation enttarnt: Russland greift in deutschen Wahlkampf ein" (in de). Correctiv. https://correctiv.org/faktencheck/russische-desinformation/2025/01/23/angriff-aus-russland-auf-bundestagswahl-deepfake-ki/. 
  37. ↑ Evan Williams (November 4, 2025). The Rise of Germany's New Right. YouTube. FRONTLINE PBS. Retrieved September 11, 2026.
  38. ↑ Mudde, Cas; Kaltwasser, Cristóbal Rovira (2017). Populism: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford: Oxford University Press. pp. 34–35. ISBN 978-0-19-023487-4. 
  39. ↑ Kaplan & Weinberg 1998, pp. 10–11.
  40. ↑ "From 'Brexit' To Trump, Nationalist Movements Gain Momentum Around World". https://www.npr.org/2016/06/25/483400958/from-brexit-to-trump-nationalist-movements-gain-momentum-around-world. 
  41. ↑ Norris 2005, p. 44.
  42. ↑ AKGEMCİ, Esra (2022). "Authoritarian Populism as a Response to Crisis: The Case of Brazil". Uluslararası İlişkiler / International Relations (Uluslararası İlişkiler Konseyi İktisadi İşletmesi) 19 (74): 37–51. doi:10.33458/uidergisi.1113367. ISSN 1304-7310. "One could argue that authoritarian populism can also be combined with left-wing social policy. Still, I assert that the phenomenon was born to address specific conditions in which far-right leaders appealed to the "people" with populist attitudes to promote authoritarian measures. A leftist leader can also be both authoritarian and populist, but the term authoritarian populism, which Stuart Hall coined, can be applied as a distinctive version of far-right populism.". 
  43. ↑ "Authoritarian Populism Index 2024". 2024. p. 12. https://iea.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/TAPI_2024_digital_2024-04-15-compressed.pdf. 
  44. ↑ Corrales, Javier (2024-08-19). "Why Populism is the Sugar, Salt, and Fat of Our Politics. . . with Variations: A Reflection". American Behavioral Scientist (SAGE Publications) 68 (13): 1804–1814. doi:10.1177/00027642241268275. ISSN 0002-7642. "For comparable arguments for left-wing authoritarian populism, see Corrales (2011, 2018),. Carrión (2021), Cleary and Öztürk (2022).". 
  45. ↑ Lawson, Edward (2019). "TRENDS: Police Militarization and the Use of Lethal Force". Political Research Quarterly 72 (1): 177–189. doi:10.1177/1065912918784209. ISSN 1065-9129. https://www.jstor.org/stable/45276899. 
  46. ↑ Bettel, Florian (2021). "POLICING THE CRISIS: A History of Riot Control Technology". Icon 26 (1): 90–111. ISSN 1361-8113. https://www.jstor.org/stable/27082030. 
  47. ↑ "Democracy Index 2020". https://www.eiu.com/n/campaigns/democracy-index-2020. 



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