Astronomy:1991 BA
| Discovery[1][2][3] | |
|---|---|
| Discovered by | Spacewatch |
| Discovery site | Kitt Peak Obs. |
| Discovery date | 18 January 1991 |
| Designations | |
| 1991 BA | |
| Minor planet category | Apollo · NEO |
| Orbital characteristics[1] | |
| Epoch 18 January 1991 (JD 2448274.5) | |
| Uncertainty parameter 9 | |
| Observation arc | 4.6 hours[4] |
| |{{{apsis}}}|helion}} | 3.662±0.430 astronomical unit|AU |
| |{{{apsis}}}|helion}} | 0.7153±0.0122 AU |
| 2.189±0.257 AU | |
| Eccentricity | 0.6732±0.0440 |
| Orbital period | 3.24±0.57 yr (1,183±208 days) |
| Mean anomaly | 346.836°±2.609° |
| Mean motion | 0° 18m 15.655s / day |
| Inclination | 1.938°±0.104° |
| Longitude of ascending node | 118.880°±0.012° |
| 70.688°±0.260° | |
| Earth MOID | 0.0003 AU · 0.1 LD |
| Physical characteristics | |
| Dimensions | 5–10 m[5][4] |
| Absolute magnitude (H) | 28.6[1] |
1991 BA is a sub-kilometer asteroid, classified as near-Earth object of the Apollo group that was first observed by Spacewatch on 18 January 1991, and passed within 160,000 km (100,000 mi) of Earth.[2][3] This is a little less than half the distance to the Moon. With a 5-hour observation arc the asteroid has a poorly constrained orbit and is considered lost. It could be a member of the Beta Taurids.[6]
Description
1991 BA is approximately 5 to 10 meters (15 to 30 ft) in diameter and is listed on the Sentry Risk Table.[4] It follows a highly eccentric (0.68), low-inclination (2.0°) orbit of 3.3 years duration, ranging between 0.71 and 3.7 AU from the Sun. 1991 BA was, at the time of its discovery, the smallest and closest confirmed asteroid outside of Earth's atmosphere.[5] 1991 BA is too faint to be observed except during close approaches to Earth and is considered lost.
Possible impact
The asteroid has a very short 5-hour observation arc that makes future predictions of its position unreliable. Virtual clones of the asteroid that fit the uncertainty region in the known trajectory use to show a 1 in 290,000 chance that the asteroid could impact Earth on 2023 January 18.[4] It is estimated that an impact would produce an upper atmosphere air burst equivalent to 16 kt TNT,[4] roughly equal to Nagasaki's Fat Man. The asteroid would appear as a bright fireball and fragment in the air burst into smaller pieces that would hit the ground at terminal velocity producing a meteorite strewn field. Impacts of objects this size are estimated to occur approximately once a year.[7] Asteroid 2008 TC3 was an object of similar size that was discovered less than a day before its impact on Earth on October 7, 2008 and produced a fireball and meteorite strewn field in the Sudan. The 18 January 2023 virtual impactor did not occur.
| Date | Impact probability (1 in) |
JPL Horizons nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
NEODyS nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
MPC[8] nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
Find_Orb nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
uncertainty region (3-sigma) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-18 | 290000 | 3.9 astronomical unit|AU (580 million km)[9] | 3.9 AU (580 million km)[10] | 2.4 AU (360 million km) | 2.8 AU (420 million km)[11] | ± 841 million km[9] |
There is a 1 in a million chance of impacting Earth on 19 January 2114.[4]
References
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: (1991 BA)". Jet Propulsion Laboratory. http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=3092104. Retrieved 2 August 2017.
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 "JPL Close-Approach Data: (1991 BA)". http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=1991BA;cad=1#cad. Retrieved 2012-03-20.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 "1991 BA". Minor Planet Center. http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/db_search/show_object?object_id=1991+BA. Retrieved 2 August 2017.
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 "Earth Impact Risk Summary: 1991 BA". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Archived from the original on 2011-08-17. https://web.archive.org/web/20110817035909/http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/1991ba.html. Retrieved 2012-03-10.
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 Scotti, J. V.; Rabinowitz, D. L.; Marsden, B. G. (1991). "Near miss of the Earth by a small asteroid". Nature 354: 287–289. doi:10.1038/354287a0. Bibcode: 1991Natur.354..287S.
- ↑ Peter Jenniskens Meteor Showers and their Parent Comets pg 463 fig 25.7
- ↑ "Asteroid Fast Facts". https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/asteroids/overview/fastfacts.html.
- ↑ "MPC Ephemeris Service". IAU Minor Planet Center. https://minorplanetcenter.net//iau/MPEph/MPEph.html. Retrieved 2022-11-09.
- ↑ 9.0 9.1 "Horizons Batch for 2023-01-18 Virtual Impactor". JPL Horizons. https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%271991+BA%27&START_TIME=%272023-01-18%27&STOP_TIME=%272023-01-19%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20day%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27. Retrieved 2021-11-09. RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (JPL#12/Soln.date: 2021-Apr-15 generates RNG_3sigma = 841846388 km for 2023-Jan-18.)
- ↑ "2009JF1 Ephemerides for 18 January 2023". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). https://newton.spacedys.com/neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.3.1&n=1991BA&oc=500&y0=2023&m0=01&d0=18&y1=2023&m1=01&d1=18&ti=1.0&tiu=days. Retrieved 2022-11-09.
- ↑ "Find_Orb for 2023-01-18". Project Pluto. https://www.projectpluto.com/cgi-bin/fo/fo_serve.cgi?obj_name=1991+BA&year=2022-01-18&n_steps=1&stepsize=1. Retrieved 2021-11-09.
External links
- IAUC 5172: 1991 BA; 4U 0115+63; 1990c – (Central Bureau for Astronomical Telegrams 1991 January 21)
- 1991 BA at NeoDyS-2, Near Earth Objects—Dynamic Site
- Ephemeris · Obs prediction · Orbital info · MOID · Proper elements · Obs info · Close · Physical info · NEOCC
- 1991 BA at ESA–space situational awareness
- 1991 BA at the JPL Small-Body Database
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