Astronomy:2010 RF12

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2010 RF12
Discovery[1][2]
Discovered byMount Lemmon Srvy.
Discovery siteMount Lemmon Obs.
Discovery date5 September 2010
Designations
2010 RF12
Minor planet categoryNEO · Apollo[1][3]
Orbital characteristics[3]
Epoch 2025-Nov-21 (JD 2461000.5)
Uncertainty parameter 0 (MPC)[1] 2 (JPL)[3]
Observation arc11.98 years
|{{{apsis}}}|helion}}1.261 AU
|{{{apsis}}}|helion}}0.86158 AU
1.0615 AU
Eccentricity0.18831
Orbital period1.094 yr (399.445 d)
Mean anomaly266.1°
Mean motion0° 54m 4.68s / day
Inclination0.88267°
Longitude of ascending node163.69°
|{{{apsis}}}|helion}}2026-Mar-05[3]
267.44°
Earth MOID0.00060 astronomical unit|AU (90 thousand km; 0.23 LD)
Physical characteristics
Mean diameter7 m[4]
6–12 meters (CNEOS)
Absolute magnitude (H)28.42[1][3]


2010 RF12 is a very small asteroid, classified as a near-Earth object of the Apollo group, that passed between Earth and the Moon on 8 September 2010, at 21:12 UTC, approaching Earth within 79,000 kilometres (49,000 mi) above Antarctica.[5] The asteroid was discovered by the Mount Lemmon Survey near Tucson, Arizona on 5 September 2010 along with 2010 RX30.[1][6] Based on a short 7-day observation arc from that apparation, it was listed for 12 years on the Sentry Risk Table as the asteroid with the greatest known probability (5%) of impacting Earth.[7][note 1] 2010 RF12 was rediscovered in August 2022,[8][1] and now has a 12-year observation arc and a much better known orbit. As of the December 2022 solution which accounts for nongravitational forces,[3] there is a 1-in-10 chance of an Earth impact on 5 September 2095.[4]

Nominal Earth Approach on 6 September 2095 with a 12-year observation arc[3]
Date Impact
probability 		JPL Horizons
nominal geocentric
distance (AU) 		uncertainty
region
(3-sigma)
2095-09-06 00:06 ± 00:20 1:10 0.00035 astronomical unit|AU (52 thousand km)[3] ±180 thousand km[9]

In 2023, 2010 RF12 was identified as a possible dark comet.[10] Dark comets are asteroids that exhibit comet-like acceleration, but visually appear as asteroids, with no coma or tail.[11] Astronomers who study them believe the acceleration is caused by outgassing on the sunlit side.[11]

Description

NASA's Near Earth Program estimates its size to be 7 meters (23 feet) in diameter with a mass of around 500 tonnes.[4] 2010 RF12 will make many more close approaches to Earth.[3] Around 6 September 2095 it will pass 52000±180000 km from Earth.[3][9] An asteroid roughly 7-meters in diameter impacting Earth would cause very little danger of harm, but a rather impressive fireball is expected (estimated in the risk table as nearly 9 KT of energy release[4]) as the rock airbursts in the upper atmosphere. Pebble sized fragments would likely fall to the ground at terminal velocity.[12] The power of the airburst would be somewhere between the 2–4 m Sutter's Mill meteorite and the 17 m Chelyabinsk meteor (which had 440 KT equivalent energy).[13] The approach in 2096 is poorly known because it is dependent on the September 2095 Earth approach.


Virtual impactors with a 12-year observation arc[4]
Date Impact
probability
(1 in) 		JPL Horizons
nominal geocentric
distance (AU) 		NEODyS
nominal geocentric
distance (AU) 		MPC
nominal geocentric
distance (AU) 		Find_Orb
nominal geocentric
distance (AU) 		uncertainty
region
(3-sigma)
2095-09-05 23:46 10 0.00035 astronomical unit|AU (52 thousand km) 0.0008 AU (120 thousand km)[14] 0.00066 AU (99 thousand km) 0.00087 AU (130,000 km)[15] ±180 thousand km[16]
2096-09-04 21:50 22000 0.84 AU (126 million km)[17] 0.18 AU (27 million km)[18] 0.36 AU (54 million km) 0.19 AU (28 million km)[19] ±414 million km[17]

On 17 February 2059 the asteroid will pass within 3.5 million km from Earth[3] and reach about apparent magnitude 22.6 by late February. On 10 September 1915 it passed 463000±30000 km from Earth.[3]

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Many small and harmless asteroids (less than ~10 meters in diameter) impact Earth every year but very few are discovered and predicted, see Asteroid impact prediction.

References

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 "2010 RF12". Minor Planet Center$. 8 September 2010. https://www.minorplanetcenter.net/db_search/show_object?object_id=2010+RF12. 
  2. ↑ "MPEC 2010-R41 : 2010 RF12". IAU Minor Planet Center. 2010-09-05. http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/mpec/K10/K10R41.html.  (K10R12F)
  3. ↑ 3.00 3.01 3.02 3.03 3.04 3.05 3.06 3.07 3.08 3.09 3.10 3.11 "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: (2010 RF12)". Jet Propulsion Laboratory. https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/tools/sbdb_lookup.html#/?sstr=2010RF12&view=OPC. 
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 "Earth Impact Risk Summary: 2010 RF12". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2010%20RF12. 
  5. ↑ "Harvard scientists keep an eye on wayward asteroids". Boston Globe Media Partners. 8 September 2010. http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2010/09/harvard_scienti_1.html. 
  6. ↑ "Second Asteroid to Buzz Earth Later Today". National Geographic. 8 September 2010. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/09/100908-asteroids-earth-nasa-catalina-sky-survey-science-space/. 
  7. ↑ "Sentry Risk Table". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/. 
  8. ↑ "MPEC 2022-S77 : 2010 RF12". IAU Minor Planet Center. 2022-09-19. https://minorplanetcenter.net/mpec/K22/K22S77.html. Retrieved 2022-09-19. 
  9. ↑ 9.0 9.1 "Horizons Batch for 2095-09-06 00:06 Earth Approach". JPL Horizons. https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272010+RF12%27&START_TIME=%272095-09-06%2000:06%27&STOP_TIME=%272095-09-07%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20days%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27. Retrieved 2022-12-23.  RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (JPL#25/Soln.date: 2022-Dec-20 generates RNG_3sigma = 180405 for 2095-Sep-06 00:06.)
  10. ↑ Seligman, Darryl Z. (2023-02-15). "Dark Comets? Unexpectedly Large Nongravitational Accelerations on a Sample of Small Asteroids" (in en). The Planetary Science Journal 4, Number 2. doi:10.3847/PSJ/acb697. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/PSJ/acb697. Retrieved 2025-07-13. 
  11. ↑ 11.0 11.1 "Dark Comets" (in en). Scientific American (May 2025): 58-63. 2025-05-01. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/mysterious-dark-comets-could-unlock-solar-system-secrets/. Retrieved 2025-11-28. 
  12. ↑ How a Near-Earth Object Impact Might Affect Society, 9 January 2003, Clark R. Chapman, SwRI, Boulder CO USA
  13. ↑ "Five Years after the Chelyabinsk Meteor: NASA Leads Efforts in Planetary Defense". NASA Planetary Defense Coordination Office. https://www.nasa.gov/feature/five-years-after-the-chelyabinsk-meteor-nasa-leads-efforts-in-planetary-defense. 
  14. ↑ "2010RF12 Ephemerides for 5−6 September 2095". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). https://newton.spacedys.com//neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.3.1&n=2010RF12&oc=500&y0=2095&m0=9&d0=5&h0=12&mi0=0&y1=2095&m1=9&d1=6&h1=12&mi1=0&ti=1.0&tiu=hours.  (NEODyS Close Approach Table))
  15. ↑ "Find_Orb for 2095-09-06". Project Pluto. https://www.projectpluto.com/cgi-bin/fo/fo_serve.cgi?obj_name=2010+RF12&year=2095-09-06&n_steps=1&stepsize=1. Retrieved 2022-07-06. 
  16. ↑ "Horizons Batch for 2095-09-05 23:46 Virtual Impactor Time". JPL Horizons. https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272010+RF12%27&START_TIME=%272095-09-05%2023:46%27&STOP_TIME=%272095-09-06%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20days%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27. Retrieved 2022-06-12.  RNG_3sigma = uncertainty range in km. (JPL#25/Soln.date: 2022-Dec-20 generates RNG_3sigma = 177649 for 2095-Sep-05 23:46.)
  17. ↑ 17.0 17.1 "Horizons Batch for 2096-09-04 21:50 Virtual Impactor Time". JPL Horizons. https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons_batch.cgi?batch=1&COMMAND=%272010+RF12%27&START_TIME=%272096-09-04%2021:50%27&STOP_TIME=%272096-09-05%27&STEP_SIZE=%272%20days%27&QUANTITIES=%2720,39%27. Retrieved 2022-07-07. 
  18. ↑ "2010RF12 Ephemerides for 4−5 September 2096". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). https://newton.spacedys.com//neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.3.1&n=2010RF12&oc=500&y0=2096&m0=9&d0=4&h0=12&mi0=0&y1=2096&m1=9&d1=5&h1=12&mi1=0&ti=1.0&tiu=hours. 
  19. ↑ "Find_Orb for 2096-09-05". Project Pluto. https://www.projectpluto.com/cgi-bin/fo/fo_serve.cgi?obj_name=2010+RF12&year=2096-09-05&n_steps=1&stepsize=1. Retrieved 2022-12-23. 



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