Unsolved:Extinction risk from climate change

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Short description: risk of species becoming extinct due to the effects of climate change

The extinction risk of climate change is the risk of species becoming extinct due to the effects of climate change. This may be contributing to Earth's sixth major extinction, also called the Anthropocene or Holocene extinction.[1] While the past extinctions have been due to primarily volcanic eruptions and meteorites, this sixth major extinction is attributed to human behaviors.[2][3][4] Climate change is occurring at an alarming rate: Studies done by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show that it is estimated that the temperature will rise from about 1.4 to 5.5 degrees Celsius (2.5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit) within the next century.[5] These rising rates, to a certain degree, may benefit some regions while harming others. However, after about 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit of rising temperature, it will get into harmful climate change.[6] Efforts have been made such as the Paris Climate Agreement, in attempt to stop or reduce the effects of a rising temperature, or at least decrease the number in which the temperature rises. However, even if this goal is accomplished, 19% of species on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species are already being impacted by climate change.[7]

Latest consensus on projections

The scientific consensus in the 2014 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report is that:

A large fraction of both terrestrial and freshwater species faces increased extinction risk under projected climate change during and beyond the 21st century, especially as climate change interacts with other stressors, such as habitat modification, over-exploitation, pollution, and invasive species. Extinction risk is increased under all RCP scenarios, with risk increasing with both magnitude and rate of climate change. Many species will be unable to track suitable climates under mid- and high-range rates of climate change during the 21st century. Lower rates of climate change will pose fewer problems.

Some predictions of how life would be affected:

  • Mediterranean Monk Seal: These animals have lost about 60% of their population in the past sixty years.
  • Miombo Woodlands of South Africa: If the temperature were to rise by at least 4.5 degrees Celsius, this area would lose about 90% of its amphibians, 86% of birds, and 80% of mammals. Community forestry can mitigate and slow some of the changing vegetation associated with human caused deforestation. [8]
  • The Amazon could lose 69 percent of its plant species.
  • In southwest Australia 89 percent of amphibians could become locally extinct.
  • 60 percent of all species are at risk of localised extinction in Madagascar.
  • The Fynbos in the Western Cape Region of South Africa, which is experiencing a drought that has led to water shortages in Cape Town, could face localized extinctions of a third of its species, many of which are unique to that region." - WorldWildLife Fund

Temperature increase has affected and will continue to affect the amount of rainfall. Rain will fall in more extreme storms carrying more moisture.[9] This 'boom or bust' precipitation affects plant growth, and increasing temperature also leads to desertification. This would further spread in other issues including overgrazing and loss of biodiversity.[10]

Extinction risks reported

2004

In one study published in Nature in 2004 found that between 15 and 37% of 1103 endemic or near-endemic known plant and animal species will be "committed to extinction" by 2050.[11] More properly, changes in habitat by 2050 will put them outside the survival range for the inhabitants, thus committing the species to extinction.

Other researchers, such as Thuiller et al.,[12] Araújo et al.,[13] Person et al.,[14] Buckley and Roughgarden,[15] and Harte et al.[16] have raised concern regarding uncertainty in Thomas et al.'s projections; some of these studies believe it is an overestimate, others believe the risk could be greater. Thomas et al. replied in Nature [17] addressing criticisms and concluding "Although further investigation is needed into each of these areas, it is unlikely to result in substantially reduced estimates of extinction. Anthropogenic climate change seems set to generate very large numbers of species-level extinctions." On the other hand, Daniel Botkin et al. state "... global estimates of extinctions due to climate change (Thomas et al. 2004) may have greatly overestimated the probability of extinction..."[18]

Mechanistic studies are documenting extinctions due to recent climate change: McLaughlin et al. documented two populations of Bay checkerspot butterfly being threatened by precipitation change.[19] Parmesan states, "Few studies have been conducted at a scale that encompasses an entire species"[20] and McLaughlin et al. agreed "few mechanistic studies have linked extinctions to recent climate change."[19]

2008

In 2008, the white lemuroid possum was reported to be the first known mammal species to be driven extinct by climate change. However, these reports were based on a misunderstanding. One population of these possums in the mountain forests of North Queensland is severely threatened by climate change as the animals cannot survive extended temperatures over 30 °C. However, another population 100 kilometres south remains in good health.[21]

2010

The risk of extinction does need to lead to a demonstrable extinction process to validate future extinctions attributable to climate change. In a study led by Barry Sinervo,[22] a mathematical-biologist at the University of California Santa Cruz, researchers analyzed observed contemporary extinctions (since dramatic modern climate warming began in 1975). Results of the study indicate that climate-forced extinctions of lizard families of the world have already started. The model is premised on the ecophysiological limits of an organism being exceeded. In the case of lizards, this occurs when their preferred body temperature is exceeded in their local environment. Lizards are ectotherms that regulate body temperature using heat sources of their local environment (the sun, warm air temperatures, or warm rocks). Surveys of 200 sites in Mexico showed 24 local extinctions (= extirpations), of Sceloporus lizards. Using a model developed from these observed extinctions the researchers surveyed other extinctions around the world and found that the model predicted those observed extirpations, thus attributing the extirpations around the world to climate warming. These models predict that extinctions of the lizard species around the world will reach 20% by 2080, but up to 40% extinctions in tropical ecosystems where the lizards are closer to their ecophysiological limits than lizards in the temperate zone.[23]

2012

According to research published in the January 4, 2012 Proceedings of the Royal Society B current climate models may be flawed because they overlook two important factors: the differences in how quickly species relocate and competition among species. According to the researchers, led by Mark C. Urban, an ecologist at the University of Connecticut, diversity decreased when they took these factors into account, and that new communities of organisms, which do not exist today, emerged. As a result, the rate of extinctions may be higher than previously projected.[24]

2014

According to research published in the 30 May 2014 issue of Science, most known species have small ranges, and the numbers of small-ranged species are increasing quickly. They are geographically concentrated and are disproportionately likely to be threatened or already extinct. According to the research, current rates of extinction are three orders of magnitude higher than the background extinction rate, and future rates, which depend on many factors, are poised to increase. Although there has been rapid progress in developing protected areas, such efforts are not ecologically representative, nor do they optimally protect biodiversity. In the researchers' view, human activity tends to destroy critical habitats where species live, warms the planet, and tends to move species around the planet to places where they do not belong and where they can come into conflict with human needs (e.g. causing species to become pests).[25][26]


According to a long-term study of more than 60 bee species published in the journal Science said that climate change effects drastic declines in the population and diversity of bumblebees across North America and Europe. This research showed that bumblebees are disappearing at rates "consistent with a mass extinction." North America's bumblebee populations fell by 46% during the two time periods the study used, which were from 1901 to 1974 and from 2000 to 2014. North America's bumblebee populations fell by 46% because bee populations were hardest hit in warming southern regions such as Mexico. According to the study, there have been more frequent extreme warm years, which exceeded the species’ historical temperature ranges.[27]

2016

In 2016, the Bramble Cay melomys, which lived on a Great Barrier Reef island, was reported to probably be the first mammal to become extinct because of sea level rises due to human-made climate change.[28]

Extinction risks of the Adelie penguin are being reported because of climate change. The Adelie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) species is declining and data analysis done on the breeding colonies is used to estimate and project future habitat and population sustainability in relation to warming sea temperatures. By 2060, one-third of the observed Adelie penguin colony along the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) will be in decline. The Adelie penguins are a circumpolar species, used to the ranges of Antarctic climate, and experiencing population decline. Climate model projections predict sanctuary for the species past 2099. The observed population is similarly proportional to the species-wide population (one-third of the observed population is equal to 20% of the species-wide population).[29]

Sex ratios for sea turtles in the Caribbean are being affected because of climate change. Environmental data were collected from the annual rainfall and tide temperatures over the course of 200 years and showed an increase in air temperature (mean of 31.0 degree Celsius). These data were used to relate the decline of the sex ratios of sea turtles in the North East Caribbean and climate change. The species of sea turtles include Dermochelys coriacea, Chelonia myads, and Eretmochelys imbricata. Extinction is a risk for these species as the sex ratio is being afflicted causing a higher female to male ratio. Projections estimate the declining rate of male Chelonia myads as 2.4% hatchlings being male by 2030 and 0.4% by 2090.[30]

2019

According to the World Wildlife Fund, the jaguar is already "near threatened" and the loss of food supplies and habitat due to the fires make the situation more critical.[31]

The fires affect water chemistry (such as decreasing the amount of dissolved oxygen in the water), temperature, and erosion rates, which in turn affects fish and mammals that depend on fish, such as the giant otter (Pteronura brasiliensis).[31]

2020

Main page: Earth:2019–20 Australian bushfire season

The unprecedented fires of the 2019–20 Australian bushfire season that swept through 18 million acres (7 million hectares) claimed 29 human lives and stressed Australia's wildlife.[32] Before the fires, only 500 tiny Kangaroo Island dunnarts (Sminthopsis aitkeni) lived on one island; after half the island was burned, it is possible only one survived. Bramble Cay melomys (Melomys rubicola) became the first known casualty of human-caused climate change in 2015 due to rising sea levels and repeated storm surges; the greater stick-nest rat (Leporillus conditor) may be next.[33]

Emus (Dromaius novaehollandiae) are not in danger of total extinction, although they might suffer local extinctions as a result of bushfires; in northern New South Wales, coastal emus could be wiped out by fire .[33] The loss of 8,000 koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus) in NSW alone was significant, and the animals are endangered but not functionally extinct.[34][35]

A February 2020 study found that one-third of all plant and animal species could be extinct by 2070 as a result of climate change.[36][37]

See also

References

  1. ↑ Ward, Peter D (2009). Under a Green Sky. Harper Collins. ISBN 978-0061137921. https://archive.org/details/undergreenskyglo00ward. [page needed]
  2. ↑ Kolbert, Elizabeth (2014). The Sixth Extinction: An Unnatural History. New York City: Henry Holt and Company. ISBN 978-0805092998. 
  3. ↑ "World Scientists' Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice". BioScience 67 (12): 1026–1028. 13 November 2017. doi:10.1093/biosci/bix125. "Moreover, we have unleashed a mass extinction event, the sixth in roughly 540 million years, wherein many current life forms could be annihilated or at least committed to extinction by the end of this century.". 
  4. ↑ Ceballos, Gerardo; Ehrlich, Paul R.; Raven, Peter H. (June 1, 2020). "Vertebrates on the brink as indicators of biological annihilation and the sixth mass extinction". PNAS 117 (24): 13596–13602. doi:10.1073/pnas.1922686117. PMID 32482862. Bibcode: 2020PNAS..11713596C. 
  5. ↑ "The Effects of Climate Change". NASA. https://climate.nasa.gov/effects/. 
  6. ↑ Website, By Alan Buis NASA's Global Climate Change. "A Degree of Concern: Why Global Temperatures Matter". https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2865/a-degree-of-concern-why-global-temperatures-matter/. 
  7. ↑ "Species and Climate Change". IUNC. 4 December 2019. https://www.iucn.org/resources/issues-briefs/species-and-climate-change. 
  8. ↑ Z. J. Lupala, L. P. Lusambo, Y. M. Ngaga, Angelingis A. Makatta, "The Land Use and Cover Change in Miombo Woodlands under Community Based Forest Management and Its Implication to Climate Change Mitigation: A Case of Southern Highlands of Tanzania", International Journal of Forestry Research, vol. 2015, Article ID 459102, 11 pages, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/459102
  9. ↑ Witze, Alexandra. "Why extreme rains are gaining strength as the climate warms". Nature. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07447-1. 
  10. ↑ Committee of the Regions; Aston University. Aston Centre for Europe (2011). The relationship between desertification and climate change in the Mediterranean. Publications Office. doi:10.2863/63777. ISBN 9789289506434. https://cor.europa.eu/en/engage/studies/Documents/relationship-desertification-climate-change.pdf. 
  11. ↑ "Extinction risk from climate change". Nature 427 (6970): 145–8. January 2004. doi:10.1038/nature02121. PMID 14712274. Bibcode: 2004Natur.427..145T. https://pure.qub.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/extinction-risk-from-climate-change(8acc0641-8055-4542-a872-6a80d9ce6418).html. 
  12. ↑ "Biodiversity conservation: uncertainty in predictions of extinction risk". Nature 430 (6995): 1 p following 33; discussion following 33. July 2004. doi:10.1038/nature02716. PMID 15237465. 
  13. ↑ "Reducing uncertainty in projections of extinction risk from climate change". Global Ecology and Biogeography 14 (6): 529–538. 2005. doi:10.1111/j.1466-822X.2005.00182.x. 
  14. ↑ "Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction". Journal of Biogeography 33 (10): 1704–1711. 2006. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01460.x. 
  15. ↑ "Biodiversity conservation: effects of changes in climate and land use". Nature 430 (6995): 2 p following 33; discussion following 33. July 2004. doi:10.1038/nature02717. PMID 15233130. 
  16. ↑ "Biodiversity conservation: climate change and extinction risk". Nature 430 (6995): 3 p following 33; discussion following 33. July 2004. doi:10.1038/nature02718. PMID 15237466. 
  17. ↑ "Uncertainty in predictions of extinction risk/Effects of changes in climate and land use/Climate change and extinction risk (reply)". Nature 430 (6995): 34. 2004. doi:10.1038/nature02719. https://pure.qub.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/biodiversity-conservation-uncertainty-in-predictions-of-extinction-riskeffects-of-changes-in-climate-and-land-useclimate-change-and-extinction-risk-reply(7cde3ada-1fc0-4283-8d8a-a124d24bc86e).html. 
  18. ↑ "Forecasting the Effects of Global Warming on Biodiversity". BioScience 57 (3): 227–236. 2007. doi:10.1641/B570306. 
  19. ↑ 19.0 19.1 "Climate change hastens population extinctions". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 99 (9): 6070–4. April 2002. doi:10.1073/pnas.052131199. PMID 11972020. Bibcode: 2002PNAS...99.6070M. 
  20. ↑ Parmesan, Camille (2006). "Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change". Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 37: 637–669. doi:10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.37.091305.110100. 
  21. ↑ Nowak, Rachel (31 March 2009). "Rumours of possum's death were greatly exaggerated". New Scientist. https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16875. 
  22. ↑ Sinervo B., F. R. Méndez-de-la-Cruz, D. B. Miles, et al. 2010. Erosion of lizard diversity by climate change and altered thermal niches. Science, 324:894-899.
  23. ↑ Huey, R. B., Deutsch, C. A., Tewksbury, J. J., Vitt, L. J., Hertz, P. E., Álvarez Pérez, H. J., & Garland Jr, T. (2009). Why tropical forest lizards are vulnerable to climate warming. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 276(1664), 1939-1948.
  24. ↑ Parry, Wynne (6 January 2012). "Climate change models flawed, extinction rate likely higher than predicted". csmonitor.com. http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2012/0106/Climate-change-models-flawed-extinction-rate-likely-higher-than-predicted. 
  25. ↑ "The biodiversity of species and their rates of extinction, distribution, and protection". Science 344 (6187): 1246752. May 2014. doi:10.1126/science.1246752. PMID 24876501. 
  26. ↑ "New report suggests Earth on the brink of a great extinction". PBS NewsHour. 1 June 2014. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/new-report-suggests-earth-brink-great-extinction/. 
  27. ↑ "Bumblebees are disappearing at rates 'consistent with mass extinction'". https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/02/06/bumblebees-decline-due-climate-change/4679240002/. 
  28. ↑ Smith, Lauren (2016-06-15). "Extinct: Bramble Cay melomys". http://www.australiangeographic.com.au/news/2016/06/extinct-bramble-cay-melomys. 
  29. ↑ "Projected asymmetric response of Adélie penguins to Antarctic climate change". Scientific Reports 6: 28785. June 2016. doi:10.1038/srep28785. PMID 27352849. Bibcode: 2016NatSR...628785C. 
  30. ↑ "Sand temperatures for nesting sea turtles in the Caribbean: Implications for hatchling sex ratios in the face of climate change". Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 474: 92–99. 2016. doi:10.1016/j.jembe.2015.09.015. https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa23842. 
  31. ↑ 31.0 31.1 Hira Humayun (Aug 28, 2019). "What the Amazon's fires mean for its animals". https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/28/americas/amazonian-wildlife-future-in-fires-intl/index.html. 
  32. ↑ David Millikin (Jan 20, 2020). "Australia fires 'devastating habitats' of endangered species". https://phys.org/news/2020-01-australia-devastating-habitats-endangered-species.html. 
  33. ↑ 33.0 33.1 Ed Yong (Jan 14, 2020). "The Bleak Future of Australian Wildlife". https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/01/australias-fires-have-been-devastating-for-wildlife/604837/. 
  34. ↑ "Are Australia's koalas going extinct? We asked an ecologist.". Jan 14, 2020. https://www.vox.com/videos/2020/1/14/21064675/australia-fire-koalas-extinct. 
  35. ↑ Natasha Daly (Nov 25, 2019). "No, koalas aren't 'functionally extinct'—yet". https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/2019/11/koalas-near-extinction-myth-australia-fires/. 
  36. ↑ "Recent responses to climate change reveal the drivers of species extinction and survival". PNAS 117 (8): 4211–4217. 2020. doi:10.1073/pnas.1913007117. PMID 32041877. 
  37. ↑ Rice, Doyle (February 14, 2020). "One-third of all plant and animal species could be extinct in 50 years, study warns". USA Today. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/02/14/climate-change-study-plant-animal-extinction/4760646002/. 

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